In Focus
By Apoorva Sudhakar

On 29 June, Prime Minister Imran Khan shared an excerpt from an interview to CGTN wherein he maintained that it was unfair of Western powers to pressurise Pakistan into choosing between China and the West. Dawn quoted, “Whatever will happen, our relationship between the two countries — no matter what pressure is put on us — is not going to change.” He said China had supported Pakistan, be it “politically or internationally or in a conflict with its neighbour.” Further, he referred to the Quad and the US engagement in the region and therefore asked, “Why do we have to take sides?” adding, “We should have good relations with everyone.”

This is not the first time the PM made his stand clear on the US and China. Previously, in September 2020, he said, “Our future is now linked to China, progressing at (a) faster pace than any other country in the world.” 

It is true that Pakistan and China have maintained close ties through decades. The support that China assures to Pakistan, in the form of military equipments, economic investments, and diplomatic support at international forums. This argument looks at the regional developments, with respect to India, and argues that “Pakistan has no choice but to preserve and intensify its strategic partnership with China.” Further, it argues for not just consistency, but for intensifying and diversifying relations with China.  

However, keeping aside the rhetoric that Pakistan and China remain all-weather friends, Pakistan has to strike a balance. Maleeha Lodhi says not making a choice between the West, or in particular the US, and China is easier said than done given the US engagement with India.  This argument holds that the change in the US leadership provides Pakistan the space to modify its relations with the US. Further, with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan has to, althemore, carve out its relations with the US and the West. 

Moving away from strategic relations, some experts maintain that Pakistan can continue its relations with the West through other mutual interests such as economy. However, for this, the West and China need to bring down the “us versus them” narrative. For example, Ejaz Haider takes the case of Pakistan and the US and says, “There’s potential for increasing exports; there’s a need to diversify economic and trade relations, including in the IT sector.” However, he clarifies that this would lead to a transactional relation as the US will be opposed to other interests of Pakistan such as development of nuclear weapons. Therefore, the best thing to do would be, “Utilise areas where interests converge. But do not offer any more free or subsidised lunches to the US.” 

The above was also endorsed by NSA Moeed Yusuf when he clarified that instead of Pakistan having to choose, “How about American companies coming, investing money, reprocessing for export and sending wherever they want. How about doing things economically where there can be Pakistan-U.S. China co-investment?”

Therefore, Pakistan has made it clear that it has chosen China as its partner and with this, Islamabad has shifted the onus on the West to decide whether it wants to engage in other avenues with the country. 

In Brief
INTERNAL
IRSA reduces the share of water of Sindh and Punjab by five per cent
On 30 June, The Express Tribune reported that the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) due to the drop in water levels in the reservoirs again it has reduced the share of Sindh and Punjab by five per cent. In this regard, Sindh's share has been reduced from 149,000 cusecs to 130,000 cusecs and Punjab’s water supply has been cut from 125,000 cusecs to 106,000 cusecs. (“Sindh, Punjab water share cut by 5%,” The Express Tribune, 30 June 2021)

No ‘overt or covert’ deal with the US, says Senate panel 
On 29 June, a Senate panel issued directions to the Ministry of Defence that giving US air bases, foreign troops on the ground or foreign intelligence operations are forbidden under the terms of engagements approved by parliament in the 2012 report of Parliamentary Committee on National Security (PCNS) while setting the future course of ties with the United States. These terms of engagement include, “Pakistan’s territory will not be provided for the establishment of any foreign bases,” barring the government from allowing the US any “overt or covert” operations from Pakistani soil as well as entering into any “verbal” agreement. (“No ‘overt or covert’ deal with US, defence ministry told,” The Express Tribune, 30 June 2021) (“Govt urged to follow proposals on US ties given in 2012,” Dawn, 30 June 2021)

LBA sympathise with Justice Isa and his family 
On 29 June, the Lahore Bar Association (LBA) responded to an open letter of Sarina Isa, the wife of Justice Qazi Faez Isa, stating that the lawyers’ association truly appreciated her struggle and the way she argued her case before the Supreme Court. LBA President said, “We truly appreciate your struggle, the way you argued your case before the honorable Supreme Court and the way you stood firm beside your husband are indeed commendable,” adding, “We deeply feel the magnitude of the agony faced by you, his Lordship Mr Justice Qazi Faiz Isa, and the rest of the family members during the entire proceedings emanating from the baseless reference initiated by the Federal Law Minister and his team,” concluding, “Lastly, I draw your kind attention to the resolution already passed by the Pakistan Bar Council as our apex body and we shall stand by all those resolutions in their true letter and spirit.” (“Lawyers feel agony faced by Justice Isa, family: LBA,” Dawn, 30 June 2021)

'Judicial activism' has cost Pakistan billions of dollars, says Fawad
On 30 June, Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Fawad Chaudhry stressed the need for judicial reforms and rejected the Sindh High Court’s decisions banning TikTok as well as setting aside the appointment of the National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) president. He said, “My head is spinning after reading about the decision to ban TikTok and remove the NBP president. What are our courts doing? The country has already suffered losses worth billons of dollars due to judicial activism.” (“TikTok ban: Fawad says 'judicial activism' has cost Pakistan billions of dollars,” Dawn, 30 June 2021)

Bilawal and Qureshi exchange war of words in NA
On 30 June, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and Shah Mahmood Qureshi engaged in a fiery debate ahead of PM Imran Khan's speech in the National Assembly. Bilawal said that if the government hadn't “rigged” yesterday's vote on the federal budget, the whole world would have seen that the prime minister did not have 172 votes. In response, Qureshi criticised Bilawal for levelling allegations of violating parliamentary tradition, saying, “You can have reservations about the speaker's decision, but you take it up in his chamber. You don't confront them on the floor of the house.” (“Bilawal, Qureshi engage in war of words ahead of PM Imran's speech in NA,” Dawn, 30 June 2021)

EXTERNAL
Pakistan, Japan commit to expanding defence ties
On 29 June, Pakistan and Japan during the 8th round of the Pakistan-Japan Security Dialogue reiterated their commitment to enhancing their bilateral relationship and cooperation for the promotion of international peace and security, agreed to further expand defence and security cooperation and understanding. (“Pakistan, Japan to expand defence ties,” The Express Tribune, 30 June 2021)

Pakistan seeks to enhance ties with the EU
On 29 June, General Qamar Javed Bajwa held a video call with Chairman European Union Military Committee (EUMC) General Claudio Graziano. During the meeting, matters of mutual interest, regional security situation — including the recent developments in the Afghan peace process and enhanced bilateral cooperation with the EU were discussed. Gen Bajwa stated that Pakistan valued its relations with the EU and was seeking to enhance mutually beneficial multi-domain relations based on common interests. Meanwhile, Gen Graziano appreciated Pakistan's role in regional peace and stability, especially in Afghanistan. (“Pakistan wants enhanced ties with EU: Gen Bajwa,” The News International, 30 June 2021)

FIA asked to stop misuse of stolen Schengen visa stickers
On 30 June, Dawn reported that the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) has been tasked to stop the misuse of 1,000 Schengen visa stickers stolen from the Italian Embassy in Islamabad. The foreign ministry requested the interior ministry and the FIA “to keep track of these visa stickers at all entry and exit points and report any seizure to this [foreign] ministry.” (“FIA told to stop misuse of stolen Schengen visa stickers,” Dawn, 30 June 2021)

ON PAKISTAN-OCCUPIED KASHMIR
Legislative assembly approves over Rs141 billion surplus budget
On 29 June, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir’s Legislative Assembly approved a Rs141.4 billion surplus budget for the fiscal year 2021-22 within hours of its presentation by Finance Minister while suspending rules governing the issue. Further, it proposed Rs28 billion, which is to be provided by the government of Pakistan, for the annual development programme (ADP) which includes foreign aid of two billion rupees. (“AJK assembly approves over Rs141bn surplus budget,” Dawn, 30 June 2021)

ON INDIA
Pakistan asks UNSC to act immediately to protect children in Kashmir
On 29 June, Pakistan urged the UN Security Council to act immediately to protect children in conflict zones. Pakistan’s UN Ambassador Munir Akram said, “The scale and intensity of today’s conflicts is stretching our capacity to protect children,” adding, “Nowhere is this grim reality starker than in today’s IOJK. More than 300 innocent Kashmiris, including women and children, were killed in fake encounters and staged cordon-and-search operations.” (“Pakistan urges UNSC to act immediately to protect children in held Kashmir,” Dawn, 30 June 2021)

ON AFGHANISTAN
Zardari terms the situation in Afghanistan dangerous and called for dialogue
On 30 June, The News International reported that Asif Ali Zardari termed the situation in Afghanistan dangerous and called for dialogue on this issue. He said, “The situation in Afghanistan is dangerous and its blowback may impact Pakistan, so we must have to keep an eye on situation in Afghanistan issue and hold discussion on it as,” adding that the government should take the Parliament into confidence on the issue. (“Afghan situation blowback may impact us, says Zardari,” The News International, 30 June 2021)
Meanwhile, an editorial in Dawn states that Pakistan as negotiated settlement is a far reality for Afghanistan, and the likelihood of large-scale violence in the aftermath of the US withdrawal, neighbouring states, specifically Pakistan, have genuine security concerns. It states that Pakistan must be ready to confront any refugee crisis, as well as militant activity and terrorist groups must be neutralised before they shed more innocent blood in the country. Meanwhile, an opinion in Dawn states that with the revival of armed regional militias to stop the Afghan Taliban offensive, Afghanistan is edging towards a new civil war. (“Terrorism concerns,” Dawn, 30 June 2021) (Zahid Hussain, “Looming Afghan civil war,” Dawn, 30 June 2021)

An editorial in The News International on the TikTok ban stated that for Pakistanis, life in the 21st century has meant a constant ebb and flow of bans and censorships. It argues moral policing of this kind has not worked in the past and will not work now, adding, the key is in improving our educational system in which our young are able to nurture themselves as thinking human beings who are conscious of what they listen to and watch.

An editorial in Dawn critical of the gas shortage stated that if the government has plans to get rid of these periodic gas shortages, it should realise that the country direly needs new private terminals for ending public-sector monopoly in the market and encouraging business-to-business deals, expansion in pipeline capacity and creation of storage. Meanwhile, an editorial in The Nation argues that a long as CNG continues to be used as a fuel on a large scale, such disasters will continue to occur due to its complete non-compatibility with Pakistan’s natural gas reserve, environment and economy.

In Focus
On 22 June, Prime Minister Imran Khan in an opinion in The Washington Post stated, “In the past, Pakistan made a mistake by choosing between warring Afghan parties, but we have learned from that experience. We have no favourites and will work with any government that enjoys the confidence of the Afghan people. History proves that Afghanistan cannot be controlled from the outside.” He added, “Our countries have the same interest in that long-suffering country: a political settlement, stability, economic development and the denial of any haven for terrorists. We oppose any military takeover of Afghanistan, which will lead only to decades of civil war, as the Taliban cannot win over the whole of the country, and yet must be included in any government for it to succeed.” Similarly, Director General ISPR Major General Babar Iftikhar stated, “Pakistan will not support any military takeover by Taliban. It isn’t going to happen.” These statements depict a shift in Pakistan’s Afghan policy which previously leaned more to the Taliban’s side. This in turn has resulted in new challenges for both the civilian and military leadership of the country in terms of regional security and geostrategy and the relationship with the Taliban.

However, what is Pakistan’s options given this shift. First, Pakistan continues to support the Taliban. Although the Taliban’s relation with Pakistan has witnessed some turbulence, the two are mutually dependent on each other. For the Taliban, an ally like Pakistan is much needed when it comes to providing diplomatic support at international forums. Conversely, Pakistan cannot think of completely disengaging with the Taliban because, with new strategic alignments, its edge over the Taliban is a crucial component of its ability to bargain with the rest of the world, as alienating the Taliban is a poor strategy and recipe for disaster. However, others believe that Pakistan should ask the Taliban to leave and conduct their negotiations with other Afghan parties from their strongholds in Afghanistan. Second, the US-China factors. With the US and China both expecting Pakistan to facilitate the peace process among the Afghans, While the renewal of the US-Pakistan strategic relationship would be advantageous for both countries it could be of concern to Chinese interests and engagement in Pakistan and the region. The Pakistani leadership must make a clear choice on whose side it is going with or else it will end up with the task of trying to balance its relations with other players. On the other hand, some argue that aligning with any local or foreign grouping to persuade or challenge the Taliban is a bad strategy and reinforcing failure.

Looking at the larger context, the future of Afghanistan remains uncertain, with violence continuing unabated, the intra-Afghan negotiations stalled and the withdrawal of foreign troops. Given this situation, what will be the future of Afghanistan, the Afghan government, the Taliban and the intra-Afghan dialogue. First, although the political system in Afghanistan is fractious, corrupt, and ineffective, and is being threatened by the Taliban, it is not as weak as was the case in 1989. It is unlikely that the Afghan government would disappear and not put up a fight. However, this requires a united Afghan political front which has not become a reality yet.

Second, the Taliban this time around are more systematic in their actions and are sensitive about their media image. However, their victories in the last two months have shown how the power struggle is taking shape with them being in a mood of defiance after successes in the field and diplomacy. Although taking over Kabul will not be an easy task, the likelihood cannot be ruled out.

Third, the future of the intra- Afghan negotiation. The talks ideally should lead to the possibility of a transitional government brought about by a Loya Jirga, however, if the idea of a transitional government does not find support from the Afghan government, the stage would be set for a confrontation between the Taliban and the Afghan army. Thus, leading to a civil war.

Fourth, the international community needs to rethink how it approached the process of stabilising Afghanistan. Mere over-the-horizon capabilities to deter global jihadi groups is not enough. Additionally, there needs to be a focus on development goals like building infrastructure, running schools, and providing other basic social services to the Afghan citizenry. This said, Afghanistan will not be left alone, the US, NATO forces and other regional players will continue to be invested in being peace to Afghanistan.

The key to restoring peace and normalcy to Afghanistan is through negotiations between the stakeholders. Thus, the first step is to call for the reduction of violence, following the call for a ceasefire which should lead to an “Afghan-owned, Afghan-led solution.” As a facilitator, Pakistan’s focus should be o to see a peace regime in Afghanistan.  

In Brief
INTERNAL
Fawad asked to meet with opposition to discuss electoral reforms
On 28 June, Information Minister Fawad Hussain said that the Prime Minister had directed him to engage with the opposition parties on the electoral reforms. The Minister explained that after his team meets with the opposition parties’ team, the Attorney General for Pakistan will brief the PM about the proposed electoral reforms; the briefing would then include suggestions from the opposition parties. (“PM directs another contact with opposition: Fawad,” The Express Tribune, 29 June 2021)

AIC raises objections to third draft of proposed online content rules
On 29 June, Dawn reported that internet companies have opposed the government’s move to regulate social media rules in the latest draft of the “Removal of Unlawful Online Content Rules 2021.” In response to the third draft of the above published in early June, the Asia Internet Coalition (AIC) Managing Director said, “Despite repeated feedback from industry over several months, the draft rules still include a number of problematic provisions — such as data localisation and local presence requirements — that undermine the country’s digital growth and transformation agenda.” The AIC also raised concerns over transparency of the proposed rules as they provide for filing confidential requests for content removal. (Ramsha Jahangir, “Govt’s revised internet rules fuel tension with tech firms,” Dawn, 29 June 2021)

Online journalistic platforms cannot escape regulations, says opinion
An opinion in Dawn outlines the advent of YouTube as a journalistic platform in countries like India and the US and says that the “digital websites are not attracting the kind of investment” in Pakistan. The author expects the trend to change, reasoning that Pakistan several YouTube channels have been garnering exceptional support. However, she cautions that the flourishing of YouTube channels has “blurred the line between news and opinion.” She opines that journalism has shifted from being about the “individual as well as institutional credibility” to mostly the individual now. She says, regulations for such platforms are inevitable and gives the example of Australia, Germany and the UK, who have introduced laws and bills to regulate online content and social media giants. She concludes, “the changing face of journalism will eventually be influenced by (and even influence) these regulations. Whether these will strengthen institutional journalism or lead to more proliferation of individual efforts is hard to tell.” (Arifa Noor, “The new Wild West,” Dawn, 29 June 2021)

Military to brief lawmakers on security situations on 1 July
On 28 June, the Adviser to the Prime Minister on Parliamentary Affairs said the military will brief lawmakers on internal and external security matters on 1 July. The leaders of various political parties in the National Assembly and Senate have been invited for the same. The Adviser told Dawn that the briefing was being conducted in light of the situation in Afghanistan. Dawn explains that this would be the first time under the “PTI government that officials of security forces and spy agencies will update legislators on security issues.” (Syed Irfan Raza, “Military to brief legislators on security,” Dawn, 29 June 2021)

Sindh HC orders ban on TikTok across Pakistan
On 28 June, the Sindh High Court directed the Attorney General of Pakistan to ban TikTok throughout Pakistan; the development comes after a previous ban was lifted three months ago. The petitioner called for a temporary ban on the app “until the present policy is revised and a comprehensive and effective policy is introduced that filters the content in question.” Further, the petitioner maintained that the app should not violate Article 2 of the Constitution which includes the commands of the Quran and Sunnah. The petitioner claimed that the video-sharing app was encouraging public indecency, sexualization of minors and adults, homosexuality and the like “which has the potential to uproot the cultural, religious and societal norms of the society.” (Sohail Khan, “SHC orders banning TikTok in Pakistan,” The News International, 29 June 2021)

Claims that SAPM visited Israel are baseless, says FO
On 28 June, the Foreign Office dismissed claims that the SAPM on overseas Pakistanis had visited Israel secretly. The FO spokesperson termed any such report as “baseless and misleading.” The News International explains that the development comes after an Israeli media outlet claimed that SAPM Sayed Z Bukhari had visited Tel Aviv and met Israeli Foreign Ministry officials and Mossad Director. The Israeli media had cited a source in Islamabad for the report. Following this, the opposition lashed out at the government and demanded clarifications. (“FO dismisses report alleging former SAPM Zulfi Bukhari visited Israel,” The News International, 29 June 2021)

ECONOMY
Pakistani signs USD 4.5 billion deal with ITFC to cover oil imports
On 28 June, Pakistan and the International Isla­mic Trade Finance Corpo­ration (ITFC) signed a USD 4.5 billion deal to cover the cost of oil, LNG and fertiliser imports from 2021 to 2023. The finance facility will be operational through the Pakistan State Oil (PSO), Pak-Arab Refinery Ltd (PARCO) and Pakistan LNG Ltd (PLL). The ITFC is a subsidiary of the Islamic Development Bank. Meanwhile, the oil import bill for 11 months of the outgoing FY amounts to USD 10 billion. (Khaleeq Kiani, “$4.5bn deal signed with ITFC to finance oil, fertiliser import,” Dawn, 29 June 2021)

ON AFGHANISTAN
FO rejects Afghan claims that TTP does not operate from Afghanistan
On 28 June, the Foreign Office rejected the Afghan claims that the TTP is not operational from Afghanistan; the FO held that more than 5,000 TTP members were present in Afghanistan. The News International quotes from the FO Statement, “The TTP, following its orchestrated reunification with its splinter groups with the help of Hostile Intelligence Agencies (HIAs), its continued presence in Afghanistan with impunity and its cross-border attacks against Pakistan, pose a persistent threat to our security and stability.” The statement comes a day after the Afghan Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the TTP neither exists nor operates in Afghanistan. (“Afghanistan's assertions about TTP not operating on its soil contrary to facts on ground: FO,” The News International, 29 June 2021)

ON INDIA
Minister accuses India of conducting online anti-Pakistan campaign
On 28 June, the Information Minister claimed that during the Tehreek-i-Labbaik protests in April, more than 300,000 tweets originated from Ahmedabad within three-and-a-half minutes and accused India of running an online anti-Pakistan campaign. He claimed that around 845 fake websites were targeting Pakistan and said, "Fake news mainly generate from three to four different places from India then this fake news after getting boost from Afghanistan reaches Pakistan to meet further targets for petty gains." (Amir Wasim, “India behind anti-Pakistan propaganda on social media, minister tells NA,” Dawn, 29 June 2021)
 

On 28 June, National Security Adviser Moeed Yusuf said it was a matter of shame that Indian officials reportedly met with the Taliban in Doha. The development comes after an Indian newspaper, on 21 June, quoted Qatar’s Special Envoy of the State of Qatar for Counterterrorism and Mediation of Conflict Resolution, “I understand that there has been a quiet visit by Indian officials to speak to the Taliban.” Therefore, Yusuf said, “I want to ask this: with what [moral] standing did this Indian high-level official meet [the Taliban] there? Did they not feel ashamed?” (Riazul Haq, “India should be ashamed of meeting Afghan Taliban: Moeed Yusuf,” Dawn, 29 June 2021)

More than 450 stranded Indians return from Pakistan
On 28 June, over 450 Indians stranded in Pakistan due to COVID-19 restrictions returned through the Wagah border. This included 405 Indian nationals, 48 NORI (No Objection to Return to India) visa holders and eight relatives of NORI visa holders. On the same day, India repatriated four Pakistani prisoners who had served their sentence. Previously, in January, 114 individuals returned to India from Pakistan. (“450 Indians stranded in Pakistan due to Covid curbs return home,” Dawn, 29 June 2021)

An opinion in The Express Tribune states that rights must be given to those who feed the nation, arguing that the agricultural sector has the potential to bring the economy out of the current crisis as well as generate employment, but the only way to make it happen is through a combination of economic investment, technological innovation and labour reforms.

An editorial in Dawn critical of the backlog in courts states that the wheels of justice turn slowly but they grind exceedingly fine, the first part is what best describes Pakistan’s judicial system. It argues, the provision of justice, or at least a measure of justice, is considered one of the hallmarks of a functioning state. By this standard, we have a long way to go.

In Focus
On 27 June, PM Imran Khan stated that the Roshan Digital Account (RDA) had achieved another milestone as the inflows of deposits had crossed the USD 1.5 billion mark on 25 March, with investment in Naya Pakistan certificates surpassing USD one billion. PM Khan via Twitter posted an index of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) showing cumulative inflows of deposits in the Roshan Digital Account and said, “Good news from SBP. #RoshanDigitalAccount achieves more milestones. Inflows crossed $1.5 bn on Friday, with investment in Naya Pakistan Certificates surpassing $1 bn. Accounts & deposits have set new records since the $1 bn event 2 months ago.”

The RDA was inaugurated by PM Khan on 10 September 2020. The RDA initiative is the brainchild of the Government of Pakistan and has been spearheaded by the SBP. It was launched in coordination with eight commercial banks, however, around 20 banks later joined with the view that it offers diversified products and fields for investment. The initiative aims at connecting the diaspora with Pakistan financially by facilitating their remittances. These banks will provide innovative banking solutions for millions of Non-Resident Pakistanis (CNIC/NICOP/POC holders) enabling them to open an account in any bank through an entirely digital and online process without having to visit any bank, embassy or consulate. Further, accounts can be opened in foreign currency and Pakistani rupee and are operational within 48 hours. The RDA fully integrates the Pakistani diaspora with Pakistan’s banking and payment system by: providing digital access to all conventional account services including funds transfer, bills and fee payments, and e-commerce; enabling investment in Naya Pakistan Certificates (NPCs) being issued soon by the Government of Pakistan at attractive risk-free rates; enabling investment in Pakistan’s stock market; opening up investment opportunities in the Pakistani property market very soon, including both commercial and residential real estate.

Since its inauguration in 2020 RDA inflows have been increasing every month. This has played a significant role in strengthening Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves, reaching a four-year high of over USD 16 billion. In turn improving the country’s capacity to make international payments, including the import bill and foreign debt repayments, and stabilising the rupee-dollar. Additionally, it has helped facilitate the rise of remittance. The remittances in January 2021, according to the SBP, have been recorded at USD 2.3 billion, up by 19 per cent year on year. In February, foreign exchange inflows through the RDA reached USD 400 million within four months. In March, the number of RDA crossed 100,000 accounts and attracted USD 671 million. In April, inflows of foreign exchange through the RDA crossed the USD one billion mark in just over seven months.

The success behind the RDA can be attributed to many factors. First, the channelling of remittance. In Pakistan, the reliance of expats sending money was primarily on remittances, however, this is one-way traffic where money is taken into the country and managed within Pakistan. Thus, through the RDA money can be taken in and out seamlessly. Second, rewriting of rules governing foreign currency value accounts or FCVAs. The purpose-wise segregation of bank accounts being fed by home remittances has helped in attracting higher volumes of remittances. Third, the higher rate offered on the Naya Pakistan Certificate (NPC) is also said to be the prime reason for attracting funds to RDA. Fourth, technological efforts. In the case of RDA, the SBP took the product seriously and worked with the government, Pakistan diplomatic missions abroad, and commercial banks to make this product work and rid it of operational glitches.

Nevertheless, the success of the RDA is a sign of improved confidence in overseas Pakistanis and is an outcome of the changes in the global financial environment and advances caused by technological and telegraphic change in the banking industry.

In Brief
INTERNAL
PPP, PML-N oppose increasing powers of the NAB
On 28 June, The Express Tribune reported that the PPP and PML-N had opposed the NAB’s move to seek access to local and offshore tax records of “politically exposed persons.” The two parties also reiterated that they stood against any increase in the NAB’s powers. The PML-N’s Information Secretary said, “Hooliganism and harassment do not add anything to the national treasury. Giving FBR's [Federal Board of Revenue] powers to NAB is [Prime Minister] Imran Khan's hooliganism and bullying. This new ploy is being used because the NAB-Niazi alliance has failed miserably.” Similarly, the PPP General Secretary said, “More powers to NAB will be a catastrophe. The PPP has called for replacing the existing legal framework with a new one that ensures the accountability of anyone paid out of the state exchequer. The PPP will oppose any move to give more powers to NAB.” (“PML-N, PPP against enhancing NAB powers,” The Express Tribune, 28 June 2021)

PM calls for expediting tree plantation campaign
On 27 June, PM Imran Khan tweeted that everyone, especially the youth, should actively participate in the upcoming monsoon plantation drive under the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami project and Green and Clean Pakistan initiative. He tweeted a graph which outlined that  Pakistan had only five trees per person, while the rest of the world roughly had 422 trees per person. Therefore, he expressed his disappointment that Pakistan was at the bottom of the ratio of trees per person list. (Syed Irfan Raza, “PM delighted over Roshan Digital Account inflows,” Dawn, 28 June 2021)

Ehsaas programme has no legal standing, says senior official
On 28 June, Dawn reported that the PTI government’s Ehsaas programme had no legal standing and is, in actuality, being run in the name of the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP). The BISP was launched by the PPP government in 2008. A senior BISP official confirmed to Dawn that all official correspondence of Ehsaas was done under the BISP, adding, “Even cheques are issued to the banks for providing monetary assistance to the needy people through BISP bank accounts.” However, the PTI maintains that Ehsaas has a better reach than the BISP; the party considers the latter an element of its Ehsaas programme. The head of the Division of Ministry of Poverty Alleviation, who is also the SAPM and chairperson of the BISP said she would brief the media on the matter shortly. (“Ehsaas lacks legal cover, being run through BISP bank accounts,” Dawn, 28 June 2021)

PROVINCES
Punjab: 218 people placed on terror watch list; 69 belong to TLP 
On 28 June, Dawn reported that the Punjab Home Department had placed 218 people on the fourth schedule of the Anti-Terrorism Act 1997 in Rawalpindi; this includes 69 members of the Tehreek-i-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP). Sources said an additional 39 names of TLP members have been suggested to the Home Department to be placed on the watch list. Of the total 218 people, “92 were from the Rawalpindi district, 68 from Attock, 14 from Jhelum and 44 from Chakwal.” (Mohammad Asghar, “69 TLP activists from Pindi division put on terror watch list,” Dawn, 28 June 2021)
 

Balochistan: FC soldier killed in terrorist attack, says ISPR
On 28 June, the ISPR said a Frontier Corps (FC) soldier had been killed in a terrorist attack in Hoshab district. The ISPR said that the terrorists had attacked a water bowser with a pressurised IED. The FC Balochistan has launched an operation to arrest the terrorists; no other details have been released. (“FC soldier embraces martyrdom during terrorist attack at Hoshab: ISPR,” The News International, 28 June 2021)

Balochistan: Government forms judicial commission to investigate Kakar’s death
On 28 June, Dawn reported that the provincial government had set up a judicial commission to probe into the death of Usman Kakar, the provincial president of Pakhtun­khwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP). The two-member commission includes Justice Naeem Akhtar Afghan and Justice Zaheeruddin Kakar. The development comes after family members and party members alleged that Kakar’s death on 23 June was a murder. (“Judicial commission to probe Usman Kakar’s death,” Dawn, 28 June 2021) An opinion in The News International, in a tribute to Kakar, says that he was a man who stood by the Constitution firmly and was “unequivocally against anti-constitutional tendencies in some centres of power in the country.” The author says Kakar rallied for freedom of speech, movement, assembly, and judicial independence. Further, he stood up against misuse of power irrespective of the persons’ politics, and in a way, Kakar “was a voice for the voiceless, and a champion of oppressed activists and human rights defenders...In him, Pakistan has lost a great defender of constitution and democracy.” (Dr Naazir Mahmood, “A voice for the voiceless,” The News International, 28 June 2021)

PAKISTAN’S GENDER DEBATE
Opinion highlights need to understand differences in societies while debating causes of assault
An opinion in Dawn outlines that the anger over the Prime Minister’s recent remarks on rape and the victims’ dresses has overlooked the differences in societies. The author reasons that this could be because of an over-reliance on Western feminist literature; she says that however the PM explained “how exposures not dangerous in some societies are dangerous in different cultural constructs.” She highlights that some people may, indeed, see dress as an incitement to rape depending upon the society’s values; however, they may choose not to condone the myth. She says, “unfair criticism stemmed from the public reluctance to distinguish between the acknowledgement of the existence of certain erroneous sexual scripts and a belief in their veracity. “ She opines that to progress into a society without sex crimes, one must understand that “acknowledging rape myths exist does not mean believing them” and maintains that the PM’s remarks were not factually wrong, but incomplete. (Shimaila Matri Dawood, “Asking for it,” Dawn, 28 June 2021)

ON FATF 
Pakistan will be removed from grey list soon, claims Qureshi
On 27 June, Foreign Minister Qureshi said Pakistan would soon be removed from the FATF greylist. Dawn quoted him, “We are moving forward according to our national need and not at the behest of anyone else. The steps taken by our government against money laundering and terrorism financing are our national needs.” He recalled that Pakistan was on the grey list during the PML-N tenure and claimed that it was the PTI which took necessary measures to meet the FATF conditions. Meanwhile, PML-N Miftah Ismail criticised the PTI for its alleged lack of commitment. He said, “During our government, the country came off the FATF blacklist. First we were put on the gray list and later on the whitelist. Before the end of our government, Pakistan went into gray again...The PTI government has, however, failed to convince the FATF in the last three years to put it again on its whitelist.” (“Pakistan to move out of FATF grey list: Qureshi,” Dawn, 28 June 2021) (“Miftah lambasts govt for FATF failure,” The Express Tribune, 28 June 2021)

ON AFGHANISTAN
Interior Minister calls for inclusive government in Kabul 
On 27 June, Geo News aired an interview with Interior Minister Fawad Chaudhry wherein he said Pakistan’s position on Afghanistan was clear and called for an inclusive government in Kabul. He maintained that Pakistan has no role in deciding whether the Taliban should lead Afghanistan. He said, “There is a misconception that Pakistan controls Afghan Taliban. We don’t control Taliban. We had leverage on Taliban. We used our influence to bring them to table for Afghan peace. We can’t guarantee what Taliban would agree to. We can’t guarantee what Ashraf Ghani would say.” Meanwhile, he said PM Imran Khan terming Osama bin Laden a martyr was a slip of the tongue. He also claimed that Foreign Minister Qureshi similarly refrained from terming bin Laden a terrorist to “move forward instead of looking at the past” and accused the media of exaggerating the issue. (“Fawad calls PM’s remarks about Osama ‘slip of tongue’,” Dawn, 28 June 2021)

An editorial in Dawn stated that there are signs of the IMF moving away from Pakistan, however, a potential break-up between the two is still some distance away. It adds, with the IMF prepared to wait, if the government succeeds in boosting tax revenues, enhancing social spending and reducing the power sector debt, the lender may show some flexibility.

An opinion in The Express Tribune states that it is time for the media in Pakistan, and possibly in across the world, to sit down and decide on how to report incidents of terror and Islamophobia. It adds, that the media has a duty to inform and it should also be done in a manner that does not lead to more harm.

An editorial in The Express Tribune states that although Pakistan is still not out of the FATF’s grey list, the fact that it has continued to avoid being relegated to its black list is quite an achievement.

An opinion in The News International states that the madrassah system needs comprehensive reform, something which ulema are not ready. However, unfortunately, it cannot be pushed by the ruling elite either who, in the process of making instrumental use of religion, have become half mullahs themselves.

In Focus
By D. Suba Chandran

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), in its latest meeting that ended on 25 June 2021, decided to keep Pakistan in the “Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring” referred as the “Grey List.” 

Pakistan has been under the grey list since 2018. The PTI government of Pakistan passed a series of resolutions/ordinances during the recent months to ensure that the country gets out of FATF’s grey list of the FATF. Unfortunately for Islamabad, the latest plenary of the FATF that was held online, decided that Pakistan needs to do more to get out of the grey list. With more than 205 members representing multiple organiations including the IMF, the United Nations and the World Bank, the press release of the FATF, while acknowledging the immediate need by the member states to focus on COVID 19 emergency and related economic recovery, it also stated that the members “must continue to fully and effectively implement the risk-based FATF Standards and ensure that criminals and terrorist do not find new and emerging loopholes to exploit.”

The FATF has been focussing to find out whether the member countries have completely implemented the procedures that they have put in place. Second, the FATF has also been focussing to find out how effective these measures are, that are placed by the member countries. So for the FATF, it is not only about the quantity of efforts/initiatives/legislations to address the concerns, but also their effectiveness.

According to the mediate note, the FATF had “finalised two reports as part of its project to explore the challenges and opportunities of technological innovation to make anti-money laundering and counter terrorist financing efforts more effective. The FATF also finalised a report for government authorities that identifies concrete actions to improve asset recovery outcomes, which will help increase assets returned to the victims of crime and remove the drivers for criminal activity.” 

The FATF’s decision to keep Pakistan in the grey list has to be discussed in the above terms, in terms of quantity and also quality. In other words, the FATF looked not only in the legislations on the areas that it had outlined, but also the effectiveness of the measures that Pakistan had undertaken. While Pakistan came close to tick the first box, in terms of numbers of legislations and actions taken on what is required, it is still found wanting on the second box – the effectiveness of the sanctions. 

According the FATF, “since June 2018, when Pakistan made a high-level political commitment to work with the FATF and APG to strengthen its AML/CFT (Anti-Money Laundering/Countering the Finance of Terrorism) regime and to address its strategic counter terrorist financing-related deficiencies, Pakistan’s continued political commitment has led to significant progress across a comprehensive CFT (Countering the Finance of Terrorism ) action plan. The FATF recognizes Pakistan’s progress and efforts to address these CFT action plan items and notes that since February 2021, Pakistan has made progress to complete two of the three remaining action items on demonstrating that effective, proportionate and dissuasive sanctions are imposed for TF convictions and that Pakistan’s targeted financial sanctions regime was being used effectively to targeted terrorist assets. Pakistan has now completed 26 of the 27 action items in its 2018 action plan. The FATF encourages Pakistan to continue to make progress to address as soon as possible the one remaining CFT-related item by demonstrating that TF investigations and prosecutions target senior leaders and commanders of UN designated terrorist groups.”

The FATF has asked Pakistan to pursue specific and effective actions on the following six areas:
First, to enhance international cooperation by amending the MLA law; 
Second, to demonstrate that assistance is being sought from foreign countries in implementing UNSCR 1373 designations;

Third, to demonstrate that supervisors are conducting both on-site and off-site supervision commensurate with specific risks associated with DNFBPs, (Designated Non-Financial Businesses and Professions) including applying appropriate sanctions where necessary; 
Fourth, to demonstrate that proportionate and dissuasive sanctions are applied consistently to all legal persons and legal arrangements for non-compliance with beneficial ownership requirements; 
Fifth, to demonstrate an increase in ML investigations and prosecutions and that proceeds of crime continue to be restrained and confiscated in line with Pakistan’s risk profile, including working with foreign counterparts to trace, freeze, and confiscate assets; and 
Sixth, to demonstrate that DNFBPs are being monitored for compliance with proliferation financing requirements and that sanctions are being imposed for non-compliance.

So, what does the above mean?

Clearly, the FATF is satisfied with the number of legislations/actions that have been taken by the government of Pakistan. However, it questions their effectiveness, and want Pakistan to do more in ensuring that the legislations become effective. The FATF wants visible changes at the ground level, and not legislations alone. 

Pakistan has to do more, to get out of the FATF’s grey list.

In Brief
INTERNAL
LEAs raid blast suspect’s residence, suggests high alert for Lahore and Islamabad
On 26 June, Dawn reported that law enforcement agencies (LEAs) had raided the residence of Peter Paul David - a foreigner who had been arrested in connection with the recent blast in Johar Town. Further, two facilitators from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Lahore have also been taken into custody. A source told Dawn that the LEAs had obtained a passport and National Identity Card for Overseas Pakistani from Peter’s residence; the two documents reveal that he had frequently visited the UAE. Further, the two facilitators were found to be operating “ secret auto workshops in Lahore, Islamabad, Rawalpindi and Peshawar where they fitted vehicles with explosives.” In light of these developments, the LEA suggested placing Lahore and Islamabad on high alert. (Asif Chaudhry, “‘Foreign hand’ being probed in Lahore blast,” Dawn, 26 June 2021)

PROVINCES
Sindh: Assembly passes budget despite opposition protest
On 25 June, the provincial Assembly passed the 2021-22 budget in 20 minutes amid protests by opposition members. The opposition also failed to present any cut motions regarding the current and upcoming financial years’ supplementary expenditure. The opposition members chanted slogans in front of the speaker; Opposition parties like the MQM-P claimed that the budget had not focussed on Sindh’s urban areas. Dawn quoted the speaker, “We wanted to focus on the budget. The opposition was also given opportunity to submit cut motions but no one seemed interested” adding, “In this situation, we have no other option but to pass the budget.” (Tahir Siddiqui, “Amid opposition protest, Sindh Assembly passes Rs1.47tr budget in 20 minutes,” Dawn, 26 June 2021)

ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Opinion outlines impact of climate change on marginalised communities
An opinion in The Express Tribune highlights that climate change has been taking its toll on the vulnerable and marginalised sections of the society, especially the transgender community. The author outlines that to escape discrimination, the community resorts to living in segregated and dilapidated locations “where the risk of climate hazards is not only drastically severe but also inevitable.” He gives the example of the Karachi rains in 2020 wherein the vulnerable were impacted heavily. Therefore, he says, “roots of the climate crisis are deeply tangled with the roots of multiple oppressions” highlighting that despite contributing least to the problem, those belonging to low socio-economic classes suffer the most. He calls for a climate-friendly stimulus package and more importantly, awareness about the transgender community so that the impact of the climate crisis on them can be mitigated. (Eric Shahzar, “Climate stress reinforcing inequalities,” The Express Tribune, 26 June 2021)

EXTERNAL
Pakistan to participate as observer in Black Sea exercise
On 26 June, Dawn reported that the Pakistan Navy will participate as an observer in the Sea Breeze 2021 (SB21) naval exercise which will be co-hosted by the US Sixth Fleet and Ukranian Navy. The exercise will be conducted from June 28 to July 10 in the Black Sea region; Pakistan Defence Attaché Ukraine will be present. The exercise, held every year since 1997, will include “amphibious warfare, land manoeuvre warfare, diving operations, maritime interdiction operations, air defence, special operations integration, anti-submarine warfare and search and rescue operations.” (“Pakistan Navy to take part in Black Sea drill,” Dawn, 26 June 2021)

UN experts concerned over evictions and demolition drive along drains in Karachi
On 25 June, UN human rights experts expressed concern over the demolitions drive in Karachi and urged the government to stop evicting close to 100,000 people living along with two narrow watercourses, Gujjar nullah and Orangi nullah. The experts said, “These actions were undertaken by city authorities without adequate consultation with the affected residents, no relocation plan, and disparate and insufficient compensation for the displaced,” adding, “The legal basis for this mass displacement and the remedies available to those who are affected is unclear. What is clear is the horrid effect on the displaced population, putting many poor families out on the street in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic.” (Amin Ahmed, “UN experts express concern over eviction, demolition drive along drains,” Dawn, 26 June 2021)

ON INDIA
Qureshi terms Modi’s Kashmir meeting futile PR exercise
On 25 June, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi criticized PM Narendra Modi’s meeting with political leaders from Kashmir as a futile public relations exercise that failed to achieve its objectives. He said, “Yesterday’s meeting achieved nothing. In my view it was a drama that can at the best be called as a public relations exercise that yielded nothing,” adding, even the ‘handpicked politicians’ called for the restoration of political rights, the release of political prisoners, end to extrajudicial killings and reversal of illegal and unilateral step of annexation. Similarly, POK’s President Sardar Masood Khan stated that Kashmiri leaders who went to New Delhi had rubbed salt into the wounds of the Kashmiri nation, adding, that they had flocked to Delhi not to get any relief for the Kashmiris but an assurance from their masters to get power in Srinagar. (Baqir Sajjad Syed, “Pakistan terms Modi’s Kashmir meeting futile PR exercise,” Dawn, 26 June 2021) (Tariq Naqash, “AJK President Masood blasts leaders of occupied Kashmir for meeting with Modi,” Dawn, 26 June 2021)

India must show that it respects the wishes of the people of Kashmir, says media
An editorial in Dawn states that if India wishes to genuinely find a way forward, it should set a timeline for a return to autonomous rule in Kashmir as well as engage with Pakistan and the Hurriyat leadership. It says India must show that it respects the wishes of the people of Kashmir, otherwise such meetings will be little more than a political pantomime. Similarly, an editorial in The Express Tribune says that this meeting had little to do with development or the good of the people but instead it is about power and satiating Modi’s far-right base. Meanwhile, an editorial in The News International states that the measures taken by the Modi government suggest that international pressure, notably from the administration of US President Joe Biden may finally have some impact on the government. (“Kashmir talks,” The News International, 26 June 2021) (“Kashmir huddle,” The Express Tribune, 26 June 2021) (“Modi’s Kashmir moot,” Dawn, 26 June 2021) An opinion in Dawn argues that the delimitation of constituencies in occupied Kashmir is what lies at the core of New Delhi’s foul deed. Further, it states that the meeting proves once again that Kashmiris cannot be crushed into obedience. (A.G. Noorani, “Kashmir alive,” Dawn, 26 June 2021)

"Pakistan is working to prevent that by building fencing along its borders and attempting to coordinate the security agencies—but it needs to update the internal security as well—the police forces and rangers who can be instrumental in preventing and foiling such incidents. We have been here before and cannot afford to slip further into the spiral of violece." -An editorial in The Nation on 'Alarming Security Trends'

In Focus
By D. Suba Chandran

Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, was in Turkey this week; as a part of his official visit, he met with Turkey’s Minister of National Defence and the Commander Turkish General Staff. According to an ISPR release, the following issues were discussed: “matters of mutual interests, regional security situation including recent developments in Afghan Peace Process and bilateral defence and security cooperation.” According to the release,  Gen Bajwa “acknowledged the Turkish engagements with Pakistan especially the ongoing efforts for continuing the positivity for peace in the region” and “also reiterated that Turkey is one of the key Muslim countries in the region and that enhanced Pakistan-Turkey cooperation will have positive impact on regional peace and stability.”

What are the issues of mutual interest between Pakistan and Turkey in the region? Turkey has agreed to provide security to the Kabul airport, once the international troops leave Afghanistan. Taliban has been against the presence any foreign troops in Afghanistan; in this context, the statement by Turkey on providing security to the airport is important. It appears, post the recent NATO summit, and the meeting between the Presidents of Turkey and the US, there seems to be a trans-Atlantic consensus to Turkey’s offer in Afghanistan.

Is the idea of Turkish troops in Kabul agreeable to the Taliban? Furthermore, did Pakistan play a role in getting the Taliban to the table on this point? Or, is there a larger consensus between Turkey, Pakistan and Taliban?

A larger question would be: what is behind the growing relationship between Turkey and Pakistan. During the recent past, one could see a larger State-to-State relationship developing between the two countries at multiple levels – from building a parallel narrative to the OIC (along with Malaysia) on certain issues that both countries consider important, defence institutions, and also at the Society-to-Society levels between the two nations. The number of leaders visiting each other at the highest levels during the recent period and the Ertugrul mania that one could witness in Pakistan should highlight the broad base that this relationship is evolving towards.

A larger question is – what does this relationship based on, and where is it likely to move towards? Is it a secular bilateral relationship between two Muslim countries in two different regions and from two different continents? If that is the case, then what binds these two countries to come together on a small platform? From a realist perspective, States do not come together unless there are certain core-binding principles. So, what are the core political principles that bind these two countries together?

Or, is it a growing alliance between two Muslim countries from two different regions to shape a particular religious discourse? One could trace this idea to what Erdogan, Imran and Mahathir from Turkey, Pakistan and Malaysia respectively wanted to achieve, despite objection from Saudi Arabia. The proposed meeting in Malaysia in 2019 between the three ended up going forward without Pakistan attending the same. However, Pakistan and Turkey did not allow that diplomatic disaster to affect the bilateral relations. Ankara and Islamabad marched on.

Or, is it an alliance that would become a part of a larger global equation that is taking place along with China and Russia? One could see during recent years, a growing axis not only between Turkey and Pakistan, but also between Turkey and Russia, Pakistan and Russia, China and Russia, and China and Pakistan. While the above have a strong bilateral context to the relationship, there is also something in common – in terms of evolving global order. Will Iran also join this axis?

It is not that the above has no roadblocks. Turkey has a different agenda in the Middle East that would impinge on Pakistan-Middle East, especially Pakistan-Saudi Arabia equation. Turkey does not have a deep pocket, nor is the economic and trade relationship between Pakistan and Turkey is strong enough to stand on their own.

In Brief
INTERNAL
Owner of car used in Lahore blast arrested
On 24 June, law enforcement agencies (LEAs) arrested a suspect said to be a foreign national from the Lahore airport in connection with the vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) blast in Lahore. The suspect is said to be the owner of the car used in the blast. Meanwhile, an editorial in Dawn states that the blast is a grim reminder that the threat of terror attacks is ever-present and that improved vigilance is critical. In this regard it welcomes the operational of the National Intelligence Coordination Committee, however, adding that there is a need for an oversight committee of parliament to evaluate the NICC’s performance and ensure it remains within the confines of constitutional provisions in the execution of its responsibilities. (Asif Chaudhry, “‘Breakthrough’ as owner of car used in Lahore blast held,” Dawn, 25 June 2021) (“Lahore blast,” Dawn, 25 June 2021)
 

IHC dismisses Nawaz’s appeal against conviction, says he lost right to audience
On 23 June, Nawaz Sharif lost his right to an audience for being a fugitive from the law after the Islamabad High Court dismissed his appeals against his conviction in the National Accountability Bureau’s (NAB) corruption references over his failure to appear before the court. The bench dismissed his appeals in the Avenfield Apartments and Al-Azizia references on the grounds of his travel despite being on bail, remained absent on the hearings and did not appear before the court without any justification. (Rizwan Shehzad, “‘Fugitive’ Sharif has lost right to audience: IHC,” The Express Tribune, 25 June 2021)

On Justice Isa, the Government challenges registrar’s decision
On 24 June, the federal government challenged the Supreme Court registrar’s rejection of the curative review plea in the Justice Isa case. The government has now appealed to the SC’s institution branch; the Supreme Court Rules 1980 state that an appeal against the registrar office decision is heard by a judge appointed by the Chief Justice of Pakistan. The appointed judge can accept or refer the appeal to a three-member judge. Previously, on 25 May, the registrar office had returned the curative review on various grounds, including the use of scandalous language in the petition. (Nasir Iqbal, “SC registrar’s order on curative review pleas in Isa case challenged,” Dawn, 25 June 2021)

On budget, the members continue their of words in the Parliament
On 24 June, the government announced that the seven-day debate on the federal budget is extended by a day and would hence end on 25 June (today). Therefore, several lawmakers could deliver speeches; treasury members and opposition lawmakers continued to blame each other for the current state of affairs. The PTI MNAs targeted Sindh and its PPP government, accusing it of not governing the province efficiently. Meanwhile, the PPP called on the PTI government to brief the country on the situation in Afghanistan. On the other hand, PML-N accused the government of trying to curb press freedom and also reiterated that the party would not support the electoral reforms bill. (Amir Wasim, “Lawmakers continue blame game in NA,” Dawn, 25 June 2021)

PPP calls for further deliberation on bill on enforced disappearances
On 24 June, the PPP secretary general said the proposed bill on enforced disappearances has not been deliberated enough and therefore called on stakeholders and concerned standing committees to discuss the same. He said the amendment bill does not provide for treating enforced disappearances as a separate autonomous crime; he also outlined the need for a relevant legal mechanism for ensuring the same. He said, “A holistic approach is needed. Legislation needs to be made to determine the mandate of the ISI, provide guarantees that anyone deprived of liberty is kept at a fully authorised place of detention, provide protection to victims, their families and witnesses and also compensation to the.” (“PPP finds defects in bill on enforced disappearances,” Dawn, 25 June 2021)

PROVINCES
KP: Janikhel tribesmen continue their protests amidst talks with the government
On 24 June, Janikhel tribesmen stayed along Baran Bridge near Bannu city on the second day in protest over the killing of a tribal leader. Meanwhile, Bakkakhel elders and provincial transport minister Malik Shah Mohammad Khan spent the day trying to settle the issues peacefully. The minister assured the elders that the government was serious in implementation of the agreement made with them earlier as well as asked them to form a committee for talks with officials of the administration. (“Minister in Bannu to resolve issues with Janikhels,” Dawn, 25 June 2021)

Balochistan: Five soldiers from Frontier Corps killed in a terrorist attack

On 24 June, five soldiers from Frontier Corps, Balochistan, were killed after terrorists targeted a patrolling party in Sibi district's Sangan area. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) stated, “Such cowardly acts by inimical elements, backed by hostile intelligence agencies, cannot sabotage the hard-earned peace and prosperity in Balochistan,” adding, “Security forces are determined to neutralise their nefarious designs even at the cost of blood and lives.” (Naveed Siddiqui, “5 FC men martyred in Sibi terrorist attack: ISPR,” Dawn, 25 June 2021)

ECONOMY
Talks with IMF remain inconclusive; Fund is flexible with demands, says Tarin
On 25 June, Dawn reported on the progress of the Finance Minister’s talks with the IMF held on 23 June. Shaukat Tarin told Dawn that the IMF has assured its full support to him and said the Fund was flexible in its conditions. Meanwhile, The Express Tribune reports that talks remained inconclusive and reported that the IMF “did not budge from its demand of increasing electricity tariff by Rs4.95 per unit and imposing taxes worth Rs150 billion.” However, Tarin opined that increasing tariff would shift the burden to the people; he said, “This is the wrong way of doing things and we will be putting extra burden on the people and the industry” adding, “Even if we protect poor people from increase in electricity prices, the cost of electricity for industry will go up that in turn will increase the prices of their products.” The sixth and seventh review by the IMF will be combined and held in September. (Mubarak Zeb Khan, “IMF has shown ‘flexibility’ on demands, Tarin tells NA panel,” Dawn, 25 June 2021) (“Islamabad refuses to cave in to IMF demands,” The Express Tribune, 25 June 2021)

Pakistan secures finance facility worth USD 4.5 billion to cover oil, LNG import costs
On 25 June, Dawn reported that Pakistan had secured a three-year facility worth USD 4.5 billion; the funds, secured from Saudi Arabia-based Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC), will cover import costs of crude, petroleum and LNG. An Annual Financing Plan of USD 1.5 billion each will be implemented for the funds and will be used by the Pak-Arab Refinery Ltd (Parco), Pakistan State Oil (PSO) and Pakistan LNG Ltd (PLL). Sources said a formal agreement will be signed within a week. (“Pakistan gets $4.5bn facility for oil, LNG imports,” Dawn, 25 June 2021)

EXTERNAL
COAS in Germany, officials pledge to enhance bilateral relations with Pakistan
On 24 June, German dignitaries "pledged to further enhance bilateral relations between both countries" in a meeting with COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa. Gen Bajwa, who is on an official visit to Germany, called on FM Heiko Maas and Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. During the meeting, matters of mutual interest, the overall regional security situation and bilateral cooperation were discussed. Additionally, Gen Bajwa said that Pakistan "attaches great importance to its relations with Germany" and expressed the desire for enhanced mutually beneficial bilateral relations. (“Germany pledges to enhance bilateral relations with Pakistan,” Dawn, 25 June 2021)

Russia to hold naval exercise with Pakistan
On 24 June, the Russian Navy Commander-in-Chief Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov announced that the Russian Navy will hold international naval manoeuvres with the navies of India and Pakistan this year. The minister stated, "Our foreign partners have had to reduce their participation in international drills over the pandemic. Traditionally, we will hold drills with our Indian and Pakistani partners. As part of IMDS-2021, we will discuss these drills with our colleagues today." (“Russian Navy to hold drills with India and Pakistan this year,” The News International, 25 June 2021)

PAKISTAN’S WORLD VIEW
Opinion outlines domestic and international challenges for newly elected Iranian president
An opinion in The News International, written in the light of Ebrahim Raisi’s win in the presidential elections, outlines various challenges for Raisi. The author lists the challenges at the domestic level - revival of the economy, curbing corruption, poverty. Similarly, he says that on the global front, how Raisi deals with the West, especially the US, is to be seen. The West is monitoring Iran on the grounds of the nuclear deal, freedom of expression and women’s rights. Lastly, the author says the new leader will have to consider the regional situation in light of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Therefore, the author says, “Cordial cooperation between Pakistan and Iran is essential for ensuring regional peace and stability.” (Dr Ramesh Kumar Vankwani, “The Iran way,” The News International, 25 June 2021)

ON AFGHANISTAN
Deterring global jihadi groups is not enough, says opinion
An opinion in The Express Tribune highlights the role of the international community in the Afghan peace. The author says, beyond ensuring a united Afghan leadership, the international community has to do better. He outlines that much of the US spending on Afghanistan has been focussed on counter-insurgency, while other needs of the country, like schooling, infrastructure, and other basic needs have been left out. Further, he opines, that deterring  “global jihadi groups is not enough” and calls on the “western countries to pay attention to what will happen to ordinary Afghans, who have borne the brunt of unending wars, and seen very little freedom and prosperity which the post-9/11 intervention had promised to deliver.” (Syed Mohammad Ali, “Emerging precarity in Afghanistan,” The Express Tribune, 25 June 2021)

An opinion in Dawn argues that there is no shortcut, no quick-fix ‘counter-terrorism’ operation that will disappear all of the bigots and guns, thereby bringing peace to our country and the region at large. Adding, banking on other states to do the work, especially those with imperialist intentions, is a non-starter.

An opinion in Dawn states that the gap between the formal legal system and what the people face is large. It adds how can the law and the legal system more responsive to the needs of the people? Laws are supposed to be for the people and not the other way round.

In Focus
In September 2005, former President Pervez Musharraf sparked a controversy by alleging that women in Pakistan were falsely accusing men of rape to secure financial support and visas. In an interview to an international media house, Mr Musharraf said, “You must understand the environment in Pakistan. This has become a moneymaking concern. A lot of people say if you want to go abroad and get a visa for Canada or citizenship and be a millionaire, get yourself raped." He tried to justify and later, deny the remarks.

Today, more than 15 years later, the current Pakistani leadership is making the same mistake. On 21 June, Prime Minister Imran Khan’s interview was aired on HBO, wherein he opined that a purdah would “avoid temptation in society.” He said, “If you raise temptation within society and all these young guys have nowhere to go, it has consequences...If a woman is wearing very few clothes, it will have an impact on men unless they are robots. I mean it's common sense.” Unfortunately, this is not the first time PM Khan linked rape to the victim’s clothes. Previously, in April 2021, PM Khan had linked rape to obscenity; the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) said, “Not only does this betray a baffling ignorance of where, why and how rape occurs, but it also lays the blame on rape survivors, who, as the government must know, can range from young children to victims of honour crimes. This is unacceptable behaviour on the part of a public leader.” 

PM Khan’s recent remarks have yet again started a debate on victim blaming. PPP’s Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari said, “Such crimes should not be linked to a single cause [...] the clothes of a person have no link with rape or abuse.” Similarly, PML-N’s Maryam Nawaz said, “What of the little children that are sexually abused; are they subjected to it [sexual violence] because of their dressing?” However, the PM’s party members, including women, are on a spree to defend the statements and have taken on the “liberal brigade.” Minister of State for Climate Change Zartaj Gul said, “Don't let a bunch of corrupt liberals challenge Islamic teachings with their limited thinking. Islam has endowed women with courage, dignity, respect and all the rights that Pakistani women are proud of. Prime Minister Imran Khan strives to bring prosperity and peace to our society through Islamic values.”

The above scenarios have a common element to them, that of misogyny. Mr Musharraf, while brushing off the victims’ trauma, supports the skewed societal perception that women are dependent on men for any form of security. Similarly, PM Khan’s remarks imply that women should live their lives, keeping in mind the mentality of men; for this, even a concept as simple as women’s clothing may have to be designed and chosen to please men. The remarks also shift the responsibility to prevent rape on to the society, especially women, and thereby limit the role the government has in educating men and empowering women. Further, the mentality also validates men who wear "their sexual instinct on their sleeves." It validates the "boys-will-be-boys" attitude, thereby forcing a victim to think twice before filing a complaint. As the Women’s Action Forum (WAF) had said, “In a country where the total reported cases of rape represent only the tip of the iceberg, such statements have the effect of further traumatising and silencing survivors of sexual violence by placing the blame on them, instead of on those who carry out the crime and the system that enables rapists.” 

The common man is yet to understand these nuances and victim blaming is, sadly, likely to continue for long; therefore, the onus is on those with power to be mindful of their words and actions and lead a new conversation around the issue than reinforce a flawed narrative. Until then, women will continue to fight on their own. 

In Brief
INTERNAL
Initial response to Covid-19 lacked enforcement, says HRCP annual report
On 23 June, the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan’s (HRCP) released its annual report on the state of human rights in 2020. The report claimed that the government’s initial response to the Covid-19 pandemic was marred by a lack of transparency and enforcement, whereas the authorities failed to enforce standard operating procedures in religious bodies. Further, the report claims 2020 witnessed cases of forced conversion, crimes against women, citing at least 31 forced conversions, six of which involved minors. Further, 430 cases of honour killing in 2020, involving 148 male and 363 female victims were recorded in the report. Additionally, the report highlighted that the Aurat Azadi March became a target of violence at the hands of religious people. (Kalbe Ali, “Initial response to Covid-19 lacked enforcement: HRCP,” Dawn, 24 June 2021)

Senate gets heated over the ‘plan to conditionally give up nuclear deterrence’
On 23 June, the Senate witnessed a war of words between the treasury and the opposition members over the ‘plan to conditionally give up nuclear deterrence.’ This debate started after the Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs sought the House’s consensus to take up for consideration the Pakistan arms amendment bill to which PPP member Mian Raza Rabbani said though the scope of the bill was restricted to the federal capital, it sets out a principle. Further, he criticized for its ‘duality of standards’ saying that on one hand, it was going to open up prohibited and non-prohibited weapons, while on the other was leaving hints that the country’s nuclear programme would be rolled back. (Iftikhar A. Khan, “War of words in Senate over ‘plan to conditionally abandon nuclear deterrence’,” Dawn, 24 June 2021)

National Intelligence Coordination Committee becomes functional
On 23 June, PM Imran Khan presided over the inaugural session of the National Intelligence Coordination Committee (NICC), the liaison body for the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). The Director-General of ISI would be the convener of the NICC, whereas a senior official of IB would serve as its secretary. Meanwhile, the PMO in a statement said, “A comprehensive briefing followed by discussion on enhanced intelligence cooperation was held. Prime Minister appreciated the ongoing efforts and expres­sed satisfaction over the performance of National Intelligence Coordination Committee.” (“Intelligence coordination body becomes functional, finally,” Dawn, 24 June 2021)

IHC to decide whether it should reject Nawaz’s appeals against conviction or rehear him upon his surrender or arrest
On 24 June, Dawn reported that the Islamabad High Court (IHC) is set to decide whether it should reject Nawaz Sharif’s appeals against conviction or rehear him upon his surrender or arrest. This comes after the bench reserved the decision in his appeals after hearing the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), who reminded the bench that it had already deliberated upon the issue of proclaiming Mr Sharif absconder. Meanwhile, Maryam Nawaz stated that her father would return if the party felt sure that his life was not in danger. (Malik Asad, “IHC reserves verdict on Nawaz’s appeals against conviction,” Dawn, 24 June 2021)

PROVINCE
Opposition members walked out of the KP Assembly to protest the Bannu police’s action
On 23 June, Opposition members walked out of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly to protest the Bannu police’s action against Janikhel tribesmen during a march on Islamabad. During the sessions, ANP Sardar Hussain Babak raised the issue saying it was unfortunate that the Bannu police baton-charged and tear-gassed peaceful protesters to stop them from going to Islamabad. He said, “Both good and bad Taliban militants are re-surging to spread lawlessness in the region. The locals have serious concerns about it,” adding, “the government’s silence on the presence of militants has raised questions whether the districts of Bannu and South and North Waziristan are not part of Pakistan.” (Mohammad Ashfaq, “Opposition members stage walkout in KP assembly,” Dawn, 24 June 2021)

Wattoo meets Zardari; says how he could rejoin a party which he had not left
On 23 June, former Punjab chief minister Manzoor Ahmed Wattoo met with Asif Ali Zardari. During the meeting, the two sides discussed the political situation prevailing in the country. Meanwhile, Wattoo, while talking to Dawn stated that how he could rejoin a party, which he had not left. (“Wattoo meets Zardari; says never left PPP,” Dawn, 24 June 2021)

ECONOMY
Govt to facilitate a new LNG terminal amid energy crisis
On 24 June, The Express Tribune reported that the government has decided to facilitate a new LNG terminal replacing an existing one for maintenance to avoid international litigation and probe reasons behind delayed decision-making in contract management and fix responsibility. The report says that the minister for law and justice is set to present a way forward to the Cabinet Committee on Energy (CCoE) at its meeting on 24 June. (Khaleeq Kiani, “Govt leans towards new LNG terminal amid energy crisis,” The Express Tribune, 24 June 2021)

Pakistan among cotton-growing countries facing extreme weather risks, says experts
On 24 June, The Express Tribune reported that researchers have warned that climate change impacts threaten much of the world’s cotton production, risking worsening shortages, higher prices and financial woes for growers, warning that the cotton industry is unprepared for climate change threat. It adds that Pakistan which is one of the cotton-growing areas is facing some of the biggest extreme weather risks. (“Cotton industry unprepared for climate change threat,” The Express Tribune, 24 June 2021)

EXTERNAL
Pakistan condemns terrorism in all forms including state terrorism against people under illegal occupation, says NSA
On 23 June, National Security Adviser Dr Moeed Yusuf while addressing the 16th meeting of the national security advisers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) member states said Pakistan condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations including state terrorism against people under illegal occupation. He said, “Pakistan has been a victim of terrorism, planned, supported and sponsored from across its borders, which unfortunately remains a reality even today. It has at its roots, actors, who may present themselves as advocates of global cooperation against terrorism, but in reality, perpetuate it to create instability in our country and the region.” (“NSA condemns state terrorism against people under occupation,” Dawn, 24 June 2021)

Pakistan and UK to cooperate on tackling transnational crimes
On 23 June, Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid met with the UK’s Minister of State for South Asia Lord Tariq Ahmad. According to a statement released by the interior ministry, “Both sides agreed to strengthen coordination between the interior ministry and the UK’s Home Office to improve the ability of the law-enforcement and criminal justice systems in both the countries to work together,” Further, it said, “they stressed to work together and support each other in their joint efforts in tackling transnational crimes,” added, “Both the ministers agreed to enhance coordination in realising agreements of Pakistan-UK Returns Arrangements and the Extradition Treaty between the two countries.” (“Pakistan, UK to collaborate on tackling transnational crimes,” The Express Tribune, 24 June 2021)

Enhanced ties with Turkey to have positive impact on peace, says COAS Bajwa
On 23 June, COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa stated that Turkey is one of the key Muslim countries and that enhanced Pakistan-Turkey cooperation will have a positive impact on regional peace and stability. Bajwa made this statement while meeting Hulusi Akar, Minister of National Defence of the Republic of Turkey, during which the two sides discussed matters of mutual interest, regional security situation including recent developments in the Afghan peace process and bilateral defence and security cooperation in various fields were discussed. (“Enhanced ties with Turkey to have positive impact on peace: Bajwa,” Dawn, 24 June 2021)

Over 250 Pakistanis are being deported every day, says The News
On 24 June, The News International reported that more than 283 Pakistani nationals are being deported by 138 countries daily since 2015, according to official data obtained by Geo News. Over 72 per cent of total figures were deported from Saudi Arabia, Oman, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Iran and Turkey. Further, the report states that officials of the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) say these deportees perhaps could not get proper support of Pakistan missions abroad, a move which led to an alarming rise in deportees in recent years. (Zahid Gishkori, “283 Pakistanis being deported every day since 2015,” The News International, 24 June 2021)

ON INDIA
India out to harm Pakistan at FATF, says FM Qureshi
On 23 June, FM Shah Mahmood Qureshi alleged that India was making attempts to misuse the forum of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) for political purposes and doing continuous propaganda against Pakistan. Meanwhile, in a separate statement, the Ministry of Finance warned against speculation regarding the FATF Action Plan, saying that any such attempts could harm global cooperation. (“India out to harm Pakistan at FATF: Qureshi,” The Express Tribune, 24 June 2021)

An editorial in The Express Tribune critical of the blast in Lahore says that while the law-enforcement machinery is already expected to be aware of the growing security challenge in the face of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, there is need for all relevant authorities to review their coordination mechanism and devise a comprehensive response strategy. 

An opinion in Dawn argues that the forthcoming fiscal year, that begins in July 2021 and runs till June 2022, could either prove to be the turning point the government is placing all its bets on, or the year in which the hybrid experiment unravels.

An opinion in Dawn on Judging without law states that the Supreme Court has yet to formulate a detailed procedure to conduct cases having far-reaching impacts on people’s lives.

On 22 June, the Ministry of Federal Education and Professional Training in a statement claimed that vested interests have begun a concerted campaign to discredit the government's effort to develop a single national curriculum (SNC) for countrywide schools. The ministry said, “The federal government’s approval process for Science textbooks does not involve any consultation with the Muttahida Ulema Board and so any claim that the Board has prohibited the inclusion of any diagrams or educational material from the biology textbooks is factually inaccurate." Further, the ministry claimed, "The Single National Curriculum is a historic initiative introduced to eliminate Pakistan’s long-standing class-based education system and create equal educational standards for all the students of Pakistan, regardless of race, class, gender, and any other arbitrary marker. It is being developed with expert input from all segments of society and is being designed in line with the pedagogical needs of the 21st century."

Ever since the PTI government introduced the SNC in 2019-2020 there has been an ongoing debate about the nature and scope of the curriculum. According to the government’s vision, the SNC is designed to bring all children on a level playing field while overcoming gaps in the currently followed National Curriculum 2006. The SNC was conceived as a ‘One System of Education for All,’ intended to introduce a uniform system “in terms of curriculum, medium of instruction and a common platform of assessment so that all children have a fair and equal opportunity to receive high quality education.” The curriculum is aimed at alleviating “disparities in education content across the multiple streams” and offer “equal opportunities” to all children to “receive higher education” and enable them “for upward social mobility.” Proponents of the curriculum state that most of the criticism of the SNC has come from a modernist backlash based on a misperceived notion of Islamisation. Although a heavier content of Islamiat it includes a move away from passive learning to activity-based learning so that children do not merely memorize but understand and relate their learning from Islamiat to their daily life.

Critics of the SNC on the other hand have argued that the curriculum is excessively religiously inclined, and have argued that a move such as this could potentially sabotage scientific thinking and impose rote learning and memorisation in schools. Others have dismissed the SNC as overly ambitious and have raised concerns over the challenge schools might face at the time of implementation. Additionally, questions related to the language of instruction, the redesigning of textbooks, potential problems that public schools could face related to the teaching methods and be at par with private schools, and implementational autonomy for private schools are some issues that have been brought out.

Pervez Hoodbhoy, a prominent critic of the curriculum states that the SNC massively prioritises ideology over education quality and acquisition of basic skills. He states that the push for a uniform national curriculum idea is based on three flawed assumptions: First, the false assumption that quality differences between Pakistan’s various education streams stem from pursuing different curricula. Second, the false belief that a hefty dose of piety will somehow equalise students of the upper and lower end institutions. Third, the false assumption that school systems belonging to the modern world can be brought onto the same page as madrassahs. He argues that Pakistan’s greatest need and its single greatest failure has been the failure to impart essential life skills to its citizens and thus, the priority should be to educate rather than score political points. Additionally, he states that the kind of mixed-up, confused and ignorant generations PTI’s curriculum changes will produce in times ahead is absolutely terrifying.

Others argue that the education ministry failed to recognise the discriminatory actions in the curriculum in line with t Article 22 (I) of the constitution, arguing that such plans will result in singling out minority students in front of other students and promote a sense of otherness. Further, another criticism stems from the fact that the SNC sets a bad precedent in terms of recentralising, on a de-facto basis, what is otherwise a provincial subject after the 18th Amendment of the constitution, arguing that this move contributes to the shrinking provincial policy space, and space for democracy and fundamental rights.

The debate on the SNC is likely expand further and increase the conflict between the federal government, provincial governments as well the civil society. However, what needs to be taken into account is that the future of Pakistan is at stake.

An editorial in Dawn critical of PM Khan’s remarks linking rape to women’s clothing says his view reflects the prevailing mindset in society that reduces rape to a consequence of sexual frustration provoked by the victim’s appearance.

Similarly, an opinion in Dawn on the incident of a cleric sexually assaulting a child argues that the child sexual abusers are present in many places but clerical sexual abuse is of a particularly egregious character, arguing that the fear of God has not deterred these men from abusing our children, perhaps the fear of CCTV cameras will force them to leave our children alone.

In Focus

On 18 June, the Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa governments presented their provincial budgets of Rs 584.1 billion and Rs 923 billion respectively. 

Balochistan: Finance Minister presents a “development budget” amid resource shortfall
Provincial Finance Minister Zahoor Ahmed Buledi claimed that the budget was “balanced” and “aimed at inclusive growth and development of backward areas.” Of the Rs 584.1 billion, the province expects Rs 355.9 billion as federal transfers, Rs 103.2 billion in provincial tax and non-tax receipts, Rs 15.5 billion cash carryover and Rs 17.3 billion of foreign project assistance. Further, Rs 237.2 billion of the total outlay has been earmarked for the Public Sector Development Programme. Of the Rs 237.2 billion, the Annual Development Plan requires Rs 172.5 billion. In terms of revenue, Balochistan’s tax targets have been revised to Rs 34.2 billion.

Apart from the above, the provincial budget has increased social protection to Rs 10.7 billion. It also proposes to increase health expenditure to Rs 38.5 billion in 2021-22 against Rs 31.4 billion of the last budget. The provincial government also plans to launch the Balochistan Health Card at an expenditure of Rs 5914 billion. Similarly, the education expenditure slightly increased to Rs 71.9 billion from Rs 70.3 billion. Lastly, Rs 3.6 billion has been allocated to address the  COVID-19 pandemic. 

Opposition’s qualms about the budget
Meanwhile, the opposition leaders from JUI-F, BNP-M, Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party protested outside the Assembly during the budget presentation. They claimed that the government had not allocated development funds to their constituencies in the budget. However, outside the Assembly, protests led to clashes with the police and three MPAs were injured. Prior to the budget session, on 17 June, the opposition blocked national highways and vowed that they would not allow the government to proceed “unless their suggested development schemes were made part of the provincial Annual Development Programme…” Dawn says the above series of events in Quetta is “just another reminder of the growing political split across the country and the widespread misuse of taxpayers’ money for boosting the electoral prospects of the ruling party or parties.”

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Budget highlights increase in salary and pensions, tax exemptions
Provincial Finance Minister Taimur Saleem Jhagra presented a Rs 1,118.3 billion budget; he opined that the budget was particularly challenging due to the COVID-19 situation. Of this, Rs 919 billion is proposed for settled districts and Rs 199 billion for merged districts. The budget provides for an allocation of Rs 36 billion to the merged districts to maintain the commitment to provide three per cent of the NFC share to erstwhile FATA; of this, the federal government  will provide Rs 30 billion and KP Rs six billion.

One of the highlights of the budget was the increase in salaries and pensions which is estimated at Rs 466 billion of the total outlay. Overall salary of provincial government employees is expected to rise by 15 per cent due to ad hoc relief and pensions by seven per cent. Jhagra also announced tax exemptions “from professional and land taxes and introduced a nominal tax of Rs1 on registration of vehicles.” The budget also focuses on economic revival of businesses affected by the pandemic, through loan schemes for SMEs, businesses run by women, minorities and youth. Lastly, Rs 371 billion has been earmarked to combat the COVID-19 situation.

Dawn highlights risks in the KP budget
An editorial in Dawn opines that while the budgetary allocations in KP sound promising, there are some risks ahead. The editorial says the first challenge is that the development outlay assumes an “exaggerated estimates of resources available.” Second, the province suffers from a “lack of capacity to spend money efficiently.” Therefore, it worries that KP will be able to spend the budgetary allocations in the upcoming financial year. 

An editorial in The Express Tribune says that although PM Khan has stated that Pakistan will not allow its territory to be used by the US for any sort of action inside Afghanistan, sustaining the pressure from the US is not going to be easy.

An editorial in Dawn on the poll consensus says that if the government is reluctant to take part in an All Parties Conference on electoral reforms, then it must ensure that parliament can be used for a similar purpose, arguing that it is in everyone’s interest that the electoral reforms bill is passed with consensus.

In Focus
By D. Suba Chandran

The government and the opposition parties stand divided over the electoral reforms bill. In between the two, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has also made important observations, and according to Dawn has raised objections on 45 changes (out of the total 72) that the bill has proposed. 

According to the ECP, as reported by Dawn, 15 amendments were seen as “repugnant to the Constitution and five inconsistent with the Act itself. A total of 17 amendments have been opposed by the commission on administrative grounds.” Some of the objections from the ECP include the following: voting rights to overseas Pakistanis without proper legislation; technical use and viability of depending on electronic voting machines; methodology used (total number of population as against the number of voters) to delimitation of electoral constituencies; who should prepare the electoral rolls (the new bill propose the responsibility to be entrusted with NADRA, instead of being done by the ECP); the number determined by the bill to recognize a party (two thousand, instead of ten thousand as required by the bill); and on disqualification.

Some of the objections made by the ECP are legal, technical, and others fall under procedural categories. They are valid observations. The government needs to address them. While one may agree in principle to many of the new ideas introduced by the bill, the objections are also valid. For example, the idea of electronic voting machines (EVMs). Many across the world would agree with the idea of using the EVMs; but, the ECP’s observations in Pakistan’s context are also valid. Will the EVMs be able to function in the hotweather and loadshedding? Are there adequate tests done to introduce the EVMs?

Another set of questions on procedural issues are also pertinent. Should NADRA prepare the electoral rolls, or should it be the function of the ECP? While there is an element of merit with the use of NADRA, as it has the necessary data, the political question is equally important. The NADRA is under the control of the federal government. Similarly, the observation on delimitation; should it based on the total population, or on the basis of valid voters in the constituency? Also, the use of id for actual voting; should it be an id issued by the ECP, or by the NADRA?

The above observations by the ECP are valid. The government has to address them.

While the ECP has made observations on technical grounds, the opposition has also raised their objections. While the protests from the opposition is more on the political grounds, some of them are also valid. 

Electoral reforms and updating election rules should be part of a democratic process. Elections, electoral rules, and an independent institution to conduct and observe based on constitutional and administrative rules – all three cannot be set in concrete. In principle, all political parties in Pakistan should agree to reforms. And in fact, they do.

Earlier, in 2017, then under the PML-N, the federal government introduced electoral reforms, that made crucial changes. The previous act gave more space to the ECP, gave financial autonomy, and at the same time also increased its accountability. The act also aimed at increasing transparency to the electoral process. 2021 is not 2017; there are more demands/requirements to elections and electoral procedure. For example, the controversy over the Senate elections highlighted the need for better regulations. Delimitation has been a long pending question. So is the registration and the preparation of electoral rolls. 

So, the government’s idea of introducing electoral reforms should be a welcome one. The idea is a good one; but, the strategy to adopt that is bad. Instead of a building a political consensus, through a bipartisan process, it has decided to bulldoze the reforms through an ordinance. 

Electoral reforms should be adopted by the Parliament, after the necessary consultation in the lower and upper houses, and cannot be implemented through Presidential ordinances. If that is the case, then Pakistan should require a legislation to reform Presidential ordinances as well.

Shehbaz Sharif’s latest call – formation of an All Parties Conference to discussion the electoral reforms is a welcome one. The PTI government should yield to the request, and get the reforms discussed not only in the Parliament, but also in the provincial legislatures.

In Brief
INTERNAL
Centre calls for third-party monitoring of Sindh funds
On 20 June, Federal Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry advocated for monitoring the use of public funds in Sindh given by the federal government through a ‘third party.’ Fawad also accused the PPP leadership of misusing public funds to launder money abroad and stealing water from the poor farmers while blaming the federal government for the water crisis. Further, he said that Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and the PPP were against ‘democratic thinking’ and had imposed dictatorship in Sindh, therefore, the people were not getting their rights, adding, “but their [the PPP’s] days are numbered ... and the PTI will win the next election in Sindh.” (Imtiaz Ali, “Centre for third-party monitoring of Sindh funds,” Dawn, 21 June 2021)

PML-N and PPP accuse government of committing “criminal negligence,” call for an audit of Covid funds
On 20 June, the PML-N and PPP accused the federal government of committing a “criminal negligence” when it came to the shortage of vaccines and called for an audit of the coronavirus funds. Shehbaz Sharif stated that the government must stop playing with the lives of people and make arrangements for immediate supply of vaccines, adding, “the government must change its shallow-minded approach of ordering a few million doses and working with the vaccine supplies given to Pakistan as charity. The unavailability of the vaccine is another proof of the government’s criminal negligence and incompetence.” Further, PPP’s information stated, “The people all over the country are not getting vaccines due to the incompetence of this illegitimate and selected government.” (Amir Wasim, “PML-N, PPP call for audit of Covid funds,” Dawn, 21 June 2021)

Army and intelligence agencies should stay away from the election process, Fazl
On 20 June, Maulana Fazlur Rehman stated that the army and intelligence agencies should stay away from the election process, arguing that the police are enough to provide security during the polls. He said, “The main point is that the army and intelligence agencies should not be involved in the entire election process. I think deployment of troops at the polling station is also an insult to the army, as our police can fulfil this task.” Meanwhile, he announced that the PDM has not disintegrated by the exit of a few parties and that the alliance was going to hold a rally in Karachi on 29 July 29 to carry forward its agenda of dislodging the PTI government, adding, “The PDM has not changed its stance and the movement against the government will continue with popular support.” (“Army should stay away from polls, says Fazl,” Dawn, 21 June 2021) (“PDM holding rally in Karachi on July 29,” The News International, 21 June 2021)

Government, opposition blame each other for violation of rapprochement in NA
On 21 June, Dawn reported that the decision to stop needless personal attacks between the government and the opposition in the National Assembly, had gone in vain. Previously, the Information Minister had confirmed that both sides had decided not to speak against the party heads at least. The Minister said that the PML-N had presented the proposal on the same. However, the PML-N spokesperson said the party had not committed to any such measure and claimed that it was the government who framed the proposal.  Further, the Minister alleged that the opposition violated the decision; on the other hand, the opposition claimed that “the treasury benchers were continuing with their provoking speeches and gestures.” (Syed Irfan Raza, “Govt-opposition rapprochement turns out to be vain effort,” Dawn, 21 June 2021)

PROVINCES
Two TTP members killed in IBO in North Waziristan
On 20 June, two terrorists along with one soldier were killed in an Intelligence Based Operation (IBO) in the Spinwam area of North Waziristan district. The two were said to be active members Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and were involved in terrorist activities against the security forces. According to the military's spokesperson Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) in its statement said, “Security Forces conducted an IBO in Spinwam, North Waziristan District, on the reported presence of terrorists.” (“Soldier martyred, two terrorists killed in N Waziristan,” The News International, 21 June 2021)

World Bank approves USD 442 million for water, sanitation services for rural communities in Punjab
On 21 June, Dawn reported that the World Bank has approved USD 442 million to help improve access to water and sanitation services for the most vulnerable rural communities in Punjab. According to a statement released by the World Bank, the ‘Punjab Rural Sustainable Water Supply and Sanitation Project’ is set to help upgrade water supply and sanitation infrastructure and services that ensure equitable and sustainable access to drinking water and safe wastewater management. The project prioritises rural settlements where water contamination and poor sanitation practices are more prevalent, causing high levels of illness and child stunting. Further, the project covers over 16 districts, benefiting 2,000 villages and more than six million people in rural areas. (Amin Ahmed, “WB approves over $440m for water, sanitation services in Punjab,” Dawn, 21 June 2021)

Sindh governor returns media protection bill to provincial assembly
On 20 June, Sindh Governor Imran Ismail refused to give his assent to the Sindh Protection of Journa­lists and other Media Practitioners bill and returned it to the legislature for reconsideration because it lacked a “mechanism for monitoring funds of the commission concerned.” The governor also noted that there was a “perceived contradiction” in the bill. Further, he also said that the bill proposed the formation of a government-funded commission, but envisaged “neither any finance committee to supervise income/spending nor any mechanism for third party audit of government funding,” suggesting that the bill include “an appropriate mechanism for the purpose.” (“Governor returns media protection bill to Sindh PA,” Dawn, 21 June 2021)

Opposition MPAs booked for reportedly attacking police personnel
On 20 June, the Quetta police registered an FIR against several opposition leaders, including the Assembly Leader of the Opposition " for attacking police personnel and issuing threats to them." The development comes after opposition members staged a sit-in outside the provincial Assembly to protest against the budget on 18 June; this later led to clashes with the police and three MPAs were injured. ("Quetta police book MPAs for rioting," The Express Tribune, 21 June 2021)

Groundwater depletion stops for the first time in decades in Lahore
On 21 June, The News International reported that underground water depletion in Lahore had stopped for the first time since 1960. Since the 1960s, the water level has reportedly depleted by one metre per year. The Managing Director of the Water and Sanitation Agency (WASA) said that the achievement was a result of various steps; licensing system and imposition of aquifer charges, recycling of car washing water, and so on. On 20 June, PM Imran Khan appreciated the development and tweeted, “[The] Usman Buzdar-led Punjab government has stopped fall in Lahore’s groundwater for first time since 1980.” (Ali Raza, “Lahore water level stops declining first time in history,” The News International, 21 June 2021) (“Water conservation steps paying off: PM,” The Express Tribune, 21 June 2021)

EXTERNAL 
"Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is simply a deterrent, to protect ourselves," says PM Khan
On 21 June, Dawn reported that PM Imran Khan in an interview with to Axios on HBO, said, "Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is simply a deterrent, to protect ourselves," adding, "as far as I know, it's not an offensive thing. Any country which has a neighbour seven times its size would be worried." On the Kashmir issue he said, "The moment there is a settlement on Kashmir, the two neighbours would live as civilised people. We will not need to have nuclear deterrents." Further, on the Uighur issue, he said, "China has been one of the greatest friends to us in our most difficult times. When we were really struggling, China came to our rescue. We respect the way they are and whatever issues we have, we speak behind closed doors." On the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, he said, "Happy in one way because there was never gonna be a military solution in Afghanistan," adding, "Without a political settlement there is possibility of a civil war." Further, he said, “There is no way we are going to allow any bases, any sort of action from Pakistani territory into Afghanistan. Absolutely not.” Meanwhile, when asked about his remarks linking rape to obscenity, he said, "It is such nonsense. I never said that [...] I said the concept of purdah which is to avoid temptation in society," adding, "This is not about me. It's about my society. My priority is how my society behaves [...] so when I see sex crime going through the roof we sit down and discuss how to tackle it. It is having an impact in my society." (“No need for nuclear deterrents once Kashmir issue is resolved, says PM Imran,” Dawn, 21 June 2021)

ON AFGHANISTAN
Pakistan assures assistance to US to recover hostages
On 20 June, Islamabad assured Washington that it would assist the US and other countries to recover hostages from Afghanistan on moral grounds. The Pakistan Embassy released a statement on the same, “This assistance has always been extended in good faith, and not driven by incentives or pressure.” Dawn outlines that the development comes after a news report in the US called on the Biden administration “to ‘pressurise or offer incentives’ to Islamabad to secure the release of an American hostage, Mark Frerichs.” (Anwar Iqbal, “US assured of help in recovering hostages from Afghanistan,” Dawn, 21 June 2021)

Qureshi tells Afghanistan to not blame Pakistan for stalemate in peace talks
On 20 June, Foreign Minister Qureshi’s interview with Tolonews was released wherein he called on Afghan leaders to be flexible in moving the peace process forward and stop blaming Pakistan for any stalemate. The Express Tribune quoted him, “When there’s failure within [Afghanistan] you blame Pakistan for that. Pakistan is not responsible for the failure within, for the squabbling going on in Afghanistan, if the Afghan leadership can’t sit and work out a peace deal...We are only engaging with them [Taliban] to facilitate the peace process and try to be helpful and constructive.” Dawn reports that when asked if Pakistan would not support a takeover by Taliban, Qureshi said, “We have never said, we have never supported or advocated a takeover of Kabul by force…See, what I have said is it is for you, the people of Afghanistan, to decide what you want.” The interviewer asked Qureshi why Imran Khan had called Osama bin Laden a "martyr" to which he said the PM was quoted out of context; Qureshi was then asked if Osama is a terrorist and he answered, "I will let it pass." He also accused India of training and funding terrorists in Afghanistan. He further reiterated that Afghanistan cannot afford another civil war, outlining that Pakistan would also suffer in such a scenario. (“Kabul told to stop ‘scapegoating’ Islamabad,” The Express Tribune, 21 June 2021) ("India using Afghan soil for terrorism: Qureshi," The News International, 21 June 2021) (“FM refrains from calling Osama bin Laden martyr or terrorist,” Dawn, 21 June 2021)

An editorial in The Express Tribune says that although PM Khan has stated that Pakistan will not allow its territory to be used by the US for any sort of action inside Afghanistan, sustaining the pressure from the US is not going to be easy.

An editorial in Dawn on the poll consensus says that if the government is reluctant to take part in an All Parties Conference on electoral reforms, then it must ensure that parliament can be used for a similar purpose, arguing that it is in everyone’s interest that the electoral reforms bill is passed with consensus.

In Focus

On 15 June, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) expressed severe concerns over some clauses in the electoral reforms bill passed by the National Assembly. The Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Sikandar Sultan Raja after a review meeting on the amendments raised serious reservations including voting rights for overseas Pakistanis, the use of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), diluting the ECP’s constitutional powers and shift them to NADRA which is under the federal government and not an independent body like the ECP. Further, it has assessed that many proposed amendments may violate constitutional requirements.

Additionally, according to Dawn, the ECP was not taken into confidence while drafting the bill, which is why the body has raised objections to the bill which it feels will be detrimental to the holding of free, fair, transparent and credible elections. The commission stated that it has already submitted its response to the relevant parliamentary committee but regretfully it was not included in the bill. (Fahd Husain, “CP alarmed at 28 clauses of electoral reforms bill,” Dawn, 16 June 2021)

Opposition raises objection
Meanwhile, the opposition has expressed objections to the bill. Shehbaz Sharif has urged CEC to convene an all-party conference (APC) to building consensus on electoral reforms while warning the government that any unilateral actions to force its electoral reforms agenda without any consultation with the stakeholders would make future elections controversial. He said, “Any election-related legislation must be based on broad-based consensus. For meaningful electoral reforms, institutions have to ensure stakeholders’ input and ownership,” adding, “The Election Commission of Pakistan is the constitutional body responsible for holding of free, fair and impartial elections in the country. It is thus responsibility of ECP to hold an inclusive dialogue with all political parties in the country on the subject of electoral reforms.” (“Shehbaz suggests APC for consensus on electoral reforms,” Dawn, 19 June 2021)

Media opinions call for consensus
An opinion in The News International argues that the ECP needs to be in charge of the election process because it is an independent and free body not linked in any way to the government. It states that an independent, autonomous body such as the ECP should at least be heard in the matter rather than ignored. Further, it adds that even if the government forces its way through the legislative process, the lack of consensus will always keep these laws controversial, adding that although everyone agrees that the electoral system needs reforms, the manner is happening is incorrect. (“Election matters,” The News International, 18 June 2021)

Government should invite the opposition and ECP for talks
An editorial in Dawn stated that the government should invite the opposition and the ECP to give its detailed input, adding that the aim should be to build a consensus and make amendments in the bill accordingly before it can be finalised for voting. Further, it states that reforming the electoral process is vital for Pakistan, however, it needs to be done by taking everyone into considerations. (“Poll bill reservations,” Dawn, 18 June 2021)

The controversy may escalate to a point where the holding of elections itself may be jeopardised
An opinion in Dawn states that the government’s package of electoral reforms is not all controversial, arguing that several proposed amendments are aimed at enhancing the protection of the rights of women, minorities and trans people as well as reinforcing transparency. However, the controversy stems from two areas. First, the lack of consultation between the government and the opposition. It says that if the government does not involve the opposition in developing a consensus on the electoral reforms, the remaining two years of the federal government may largely be consumed in dealing with a controversy over the contested electoral laws. Second, the objections and concerns expressed by the ECP and its differences with the government. The opinion stated that the government must make its peace and engage with the ECP as well as with the opposition, arguing that in a democracy, dialogue should never break down. (Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, “Controversial poll reforms,” Dawn, 17 June 2021)
 
Bill is a shocking manifestation of the PTI government’s unilateral push to have its way
An opinion in Dawn argues that the electoral reforms bill is a shocking manifestation of the PTI government’s unilateral push to have its way regardless of the consequences for the system as a whole. However, it states that the ECP has done well to assert itself, adding that the body must continue to not compromise on its constitutional mandate. It adds that a strong and empowered ECP that is willing to flex its muscles to ensure that the will of the people is reflected accurately through the ballot box is what is required. (Fahd Husain, “ECP roars back,” Dawn, 19 June 2021)
 

In Brief
INTERNAL
Sherry Rehman raises concerns over “missing bills” 
On 18 June, PPP’s Sherry Rehman said that certain human rights bills had disappeared and been omitted from the parliamentary agenda, adding that they later reappeared as government bills. The bills concern issues like domestic violence, custodial deaths and so on. Dawn quoted her saying, “What is more alarming is that our bills suddenly appear as the federal government’s bills in the end. The way bills have been tabled in the parliament is unprecedented. The government must inform the parliament regarding the current status of the disappearing bills. This is not how a parliamentary system works.” Meanwhile, the PML-N also echoed Sherry Rehman’s claims. (Iftikhar A Khan, “Opposition alarmed over disappearance of key human rights bills in black hole, “ Dawn, 19 June 2021)

Senate Committee opposes exemption from filing returns to political parties
On 18 June, the Senate Standing Committee on Finance rejected the government proposal to exempt political parties from filing returns. An MQM-P Senator said, “Giving political parties exemption [from filing returns] is damaging for their standing in the eyes of the people.” Further, the Committee also objected to the proposal to slap Rs 10 billion indirect taxes on the salaried class by striking down exemptions on allowances highlighting the burden of inflation on the people. (“Senate panel opposes exempting parties from income tax,” The Express Tribune, 19 June 2021)

Pervez Hoodbhoy writes against "inviting mullahs to regulate biology textbooks"
An opinion in Dawn by Pervez Hoodbhoy critical of the implementation of the PTI’s Single National Curriculum says that by inviting mullahs to regulate biology textbooks the PTI government has put Pakistan in reverse gear. He says religious scholars appointed as members of the SNC Committee have in the name of Islam warned textbook publishers not to print any diagram or sketch in biology textbooks that show human figures “sans clothes.” He argues, such exclusion from schoolbooks reduces the teaching of biology to a farce. He concludes by saying that the kind of mixed-up, confused and ignorant generations PTI’s curriculum changes will produce in times ahead is absolutely terrifying.(Pervez Hoodbhoy, “Cost of enforced modesty,” Dawn, 19 June 2021)

ON BUDGET 2021-22
PPP slams PTI, terms budget “illegal”
On 18 June, Bilawal Bhutto lashed out at the PTI government, terming the latest budget and the budget session illegal. Bilawal outlined that since the PTI came to power, the federal government had not given any new National Finance Commission (NFC) Award to the provinces. He said, “Whenever we talk about the 18th Amendment and NFC [National Finance Commission], we are criticised for using the Sindh card.” He also criticised the introduction of several indirect taxes adding that the common man was bearing its burden. (“Bilawal questions veracity of budget claims,” The Express Tribune, 18 June 2021) (“Budget sans NFC illegal, says Bilawal,” The News International, 19 June 2021) 

Energy Minister says opposition cannot digest government’s achievements 
On 18 June, following Bilawal Bhutto’s allegations against the government, the Energy Minister said, “Those who have never done any job or business or anything to improve the country's economy and have no knowledge thereof delivered an immature speech on the government's budget and economic policies, and they are telling us how to run the economy.” He claimed that the opposition could not digest the economic achievements of the government. He also told the PPP that under the party’s governance, the country had never achieved a four per cent growth rate. (“‘Corruption stains won’t wash away by speaking in twisted accents’,” The News International, 19 June 2021) (“Hammad delivers blistering riposte to PPP chief’s critique,” The Express Tribune, 19 June 2021)

Balochistan presents Rs 584 billion budget despite protests 
On 18 June, the Balochistan government presented a Rs 584.1 billion budget with a development package of Rs 237.2 billion. The budget expects a federal transfer of Rs 355.9 billion. The estimated expenditure on health, education and social protection has increased. However, the budget session was faced with protests outside the Assembly and the presentation was delayed; police led baton charges against the opposition lawmakers. Prior to this, the opposition parties had also blocked main highways in Quetta, Chagai, Washuk, Kharan and Nushki. They demanded that their suggestions on development initiatives be included in the Annual Development Programme in 2021-22. (Saleem Shahid and Nasir Jamal, “Balochistan unveils Rs584.1bn budget amid opposition protest,” Dawn, 19 June 2021) (“Balochistan Budget 2021-22: Assembly compound turns into war zone,” The News International, 19 June 2021)

EXTERNAL
Pakistan reiterates commitment to GSP+ conventions
On 19 June, Dawn reported that Pakistan had pledged its commitment to the implementation of the 27 international conventions under the Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) agreement with the EU. Foreign Minister Qureshi conveyed the same during the Pakistan-European Union Joint Commission on 16 June. Dawn quoted from the Pakistan-EU Joint Commission meeting, “The EU and Pakistan agreed to enhance bilateral trade, including by addressing issues that are hampering trade and investment, improving the business climate, and Pakistan’s efforts towards full implementation of the 27 international conventions stipulated under the EU’s unilateral trade preferences scheme, the Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+).” Later, Qureshi met with EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy in Turkey and reiterated the same on 18 June. (Baqir Sajjad Syed, “GSP+ conventions to be fully enforced: Foreign Minister Qureshi,” Dawn, 19 June 2021)

Afghanistan’s NSA attempts to reverse progress in peace talks, says FO
On 18 June, the Foreign Office claimed that the Afghan NSA was attempting to undo the progress in the Afghan peace talks. The FO said that the international community had acknowledged Pakistan’s role in the Afghan peace. Dawn reported on Qureshi’s interview with Tolonews wherein he said that the Afghan NSA’s remarks were “a calculated attempt by his office to disregard and nullify the progress in the peace process so far.'' Reacting to this, the Afghan NSA said the interview was conducted at a time when the “Taliban launches violent offensives against Afghan people across the country, we know how & why they continue to be enabled to do this. Quraishi is either uninformed, ignorant or accomplice. Maybe he also rejects that, Osama was found next to Pakistani Military HQ.” (“FO accuses Afghan official of trying to damage peace talks,” Dawn, 19 June 2021)

COAS meets with British High Commissioner; Qureshi meets Afghan HCNR chairman
On 18 June, COAS General Bajwa met with the British High Commissioner. The ISPR quoted the COAS, “We look forward to optimise the strategic potential of our relationship based on convergences.” The two dignitaries also discussed matters of mutual interest, regional security, the Afghan peace, and the joint commitment to address the pandemic. The meeting came on the sidelines of theQureshi’s meeting with the Chairman of the Afghan High Council for National Reconciliation (HCNR) Abdullah Abdullah in Turkey on the same day. Qureshi conveyed the need for an expedited process to reduce space for spoilers. He also maintained that the current blame game would only fuel the spoilers. (“‘Pakistan values UK's balanced role in regional affairs’, COAS tells British HC,” The Express Tribune, 18 June 2021)

ON INDIA
International community must not remain silent on India’s possible nuclear "black market," says Dawn
An editorial in Dawn, citing reports about the uranium seizure and its “possible black market in India,” says the international community should hold the Indian government answerable on the incident. The editorial opines that the hints and reports of a “possible proliferation” must not be taken lightly. Further, highlighting the West’s scrutiny of Iran’s nuclear programme, the editorial calls for a single standard on nuclear safety. It concludes, “If the international community continues to maintain its silence on these alarming reports, it will give credence to the belief that those who control the global order choose to cherry-pick issues of concern.” (“India uranium theft,” Dawn, 19 June 2021)

An editorial in Dawn critical of the ruckus in the National Assembly says that a dysfunctional parliament, where political civility is entirely absent, only amplifies political cynicism and delegitimises the political process. It says, elected representatives should not need reminders about engaging in behaviour that casts democracy in an unfavourable light.

An editorial in The Express Tribune argues that for the masses, does not make much difference whether or not the government goes ahead with the IMF loan programme.
 

In Focus

The debate on Budget 2021-22 continues; some groups have expressed their approval on Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin’s “growth-oriented budget” and some remain skeptical. The opposition has called it anti-people, business journalists have questioned the government’s strategy towards the IMF, and some believe the government has pitched more than its capacity. 

The experts say…
Senior  political economist Pervez Tahir highlights that contrary to the government’s claims that no new taxes have been imposed, the actual budget paints a different picture as indirect taxes continue and have been increased in some cases. He points out that direct taxes account for 37.4 per cent and on the other hand, the common man bears the cost of indirect taxes which accounts for 62.6 per cent of the total revenue. Therefore, Tahir argues, “This budget is irrelevant for the working class.”

Similarly, another analysis in Dawn opines that the budget caters to the “the classes on the two extremes of the social scale more than it serves the big percentage of households in the middle.” It outlines that there is something for the big corporate class and for the beneficiaries of the Ehsaas scheme. Amid this, “Concerns of the middle class on jobs, falling incomes and price hikes did not get sufficient attention in the budget.”

Meanwhile, the development investment has been increased to Rs 900 billion in the public sector development programme (PSDP). However, with a range of tax incentives to industries and businesses, and subsidies to the power sector, questions arise how the government will finance this without upsetting the IMF. Business journalist Khurram Husain further outlines that the government is expecting to raise Rs 1.056 trillion from the IMF and international bonds; “without these funds the budget — with all its tax cuts, subsidies and elevated development spending — could well be in jeopardy.” 

The opposition says...
On 17 June, Shehbaz Sharif lashed out at the government and said the opposition will stand its ground and not pass the budget if the inflation keeps continuing. Shehbaz termed the latest budget “fake” and reasoned that the “poor man's meals have been halved” over the last three years because of the PTI’s taxes. He said, “Twenty million people have fallen below the poverty line in these three years. Income has been reduced by 20 per cent. People are asking where are the 10.5m jobs [promised by the PTI]. As a result of these fake budgets, 5m people have lost their jobs.” Further, he placed a set of demands which included elimination of new taxes on essentials, LNG and RLNG, restarting of CPEC projects, removal of sales tax on machinery and so on. 

Meanwhile, the PPP’s Saleem Mandviwala termed the budget a “copy-paste” document claiming that the federal government did nothing on its own and also that it had not received approval from the federal cabinet. He maintained that the poor had nothing for them in the budget. Bilawal Bhutto called the budget “anti-people and cruel.” Dawn quoted him, “Taxing every phone call, SMS, and internet in the budget and then taking it back after there is a backlash the next day is a proof that the government has no plan, and that it continues to muddle forward at the cost of the well-being of the people of Pakistan.”

The satisfied and the skeptical
The Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry welcomed the budget and the reduction of regulatory, customs and additional customs duty. This, the body opined, would set the economy rolling. Similarly, the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI) appreciated the “rationalisation of customs duties on a large number of imported raw materials” reasoning that it would boost  textile, pharma, chemical, steel and food sectors. 

However, the agricultural sector is unhappy with the budget, especially claiming that the government has not resolved the cotton crisis. The government shows an allocation of Rs 77 billion for the agriculture sector under the development funds; this is reportedly Rs five billion less than the Rs 82 billion expenditure on the sector in the outgoing year. Therefore, this is “hardly a propitious sign for sectoral revival.” Dawn quotes the Head of Agriculture Republic who says that the government has not presented a “blueprint for ridding the farm sector of constraints marring its improvement.” 

Meanwhile, it remains to be seen how the government responds to these concerns. As of now, the government is defending its “growth-oriented” budget and insists that it is in line with the IMF. The next few weeks will determine whether the PTI government will be able to stand its ground. 

In Brief
INTERNAL
Government and opposition agree to ensure smooth proceedings of the NA
On 17 June, the government and the opposition in the National reached an agreement to ensure that the smooth proceedings of the house as well as the opposition’s demand to review the passage of 21 bills that were passed “in haste” last week. Following the agreement, the opposition withdrew its no-confidence motion against Deputy Speaker Qasim Suri. (Syed Irfan Raza, “Govt, opposition agree to finally restore NA sanity,” Dawn, 18 June 2021)

COVID-19 positivity rate drops to 1.9 per cent
On 18 June, Dawn reported that the COVID-19 positivity rate was recorded as 1.9 per cent, the lowest so far this year. According to the National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC), The number of active cases of Covid-19 in the country has declined by 65 per cent in about two months. (Ikram Junaidi, “Number of Covid cases falls by 65pc in two months,” Dawn, 18 June 2021) (“Coronavirus: With 1,043 new infections, positivity rate drops below 2%,” The News International, 18 June 2021)

Final draft of the National Electricity Policy 2021 to be shared with CCI 
On 17 June, the Council of Common Interests (CCI) constituted a committee to give with it the final draft of the proposed National Electricity Policy 2021. The Prime Minister Office stated that at the 46th meeting of the CCI it was decided to constitute a committee to further deliberate upon the proposed policy and present the final draft before the CCI in its next meeting on 21 June. Meanwhile, the Centre and Sindh were not able to reach a consensus on important national issues discussed at the CCI meeting, including the National Electricity Policy 2021, share in Indus water and development projects in the province being funded by the federal government. (“National Electricity Policy 2021: Final draft to be shared with CCI on 21st,” The News International, 18 June 2021) (“Consensus eludes Centre, Sindh on key issues at CCI meeting,” Dawn, 18 June 2021)

ECONOMY
Senate Standing Committee on Finance rejects several budgetary proposals
On 17 June, the Senate Standing Committee on Finance while continuing discussion on the Finance Bill 2021 for the third day rejected the government proposals to tax markup on Provident Fund (PF), lowering of benchmark for charging withholding tax on electricity bills and declaration of business account. However, the committee approved the tax machinery’s proposal to abolish tax exemption on pensions and allowances of government employees among others. (Mubarak Zeb Khan, “Senate body rejects many budgetary proposals,” Dawn, 18 June 2021)

EXTERNAL
China wants greater engagement with Pakistani political parties
On 18 June Dawn reported that the Chinese Ambassador Nong Rong said, “The CPC attaches great importance to exchanges and cooperation with Pakistani political parties, and will give full play to the advantages of inter-party relations to reach the consensus among parties and make the contribution of party-to-party exchanges to build a closer China-Pakistan Community of Shared Future in the new era.” He added, “We are ready to work with Pakistan’s political parties to make good use of the CPEC Political Parties Joint Consultation Mechanism, actively promote the coordination between CPEC and Naya Pakistan Vision, and strengthen exchanges of ideas, policies and peoples, so as to create a good political and public environment for the high-quality development of the CPEC.” (Baqir Sajjad Syed, “Communist Party of China urges greater cooperation with political parties,” Dawn, 18 June 2021)

Information Minister meets with German Ambassador, discuss joint ventures in film, drama
On 17 June, Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Fawad Chaudhry met with German Ambassador Bernhard Stephan Schlagheck. During the meeting, Fawad stressed the need for joint ventures between Germany and Pakistan in the fields of film and drama productions. Additionally, the German envoy showed interest in boosting ties in gaming. (“Fawad for Pak-German joint ventures in film, drama,” The Express Tribune, 18 June 2021)

ON INDIA
India must take verifiable measures for strengthening the security of its nuclear materials, says FO
On 17 June, Foreign Office Spokesperson alleged that several incidents of illegal sale of weapon-grade uranium in India pointed to lax controls, poor regulatory and enforcement mechanisms as well as the possible existence of a black market for nuclear materials in India. The spokesperson stated that instead of resorting to baseless and usual anti-Pakistan rhetoric, India must thoroughly investigate the matter credibly and transparently, adding, “The incident took place in India and was reported by its own media. The charges were also framed by the Indian Police. I, therefore, wonder as to what made the Indian Ministry of External Affairs’ spokesperson believe that it depicted Pakistan’s desperation to malign India.” The spokesman stated that Pakistan was concerned over repeated incidents of attempted illegal sale of Uranium in India, saying that to comply with its international obligations, India must also take verifiable measures for strengthening the security of its nuclear materials. (Mariana Baabar, “Pakistan demands India tighten nuclear safety,” The News International, 18 June 2021)

ON AFGHANISTAN
No proposal on the table for Kabul Airport security, says FO
On 17 June, the Foreign Office Spokesperson stated that Pakistan was considering no proposal at the moment for its role in providing security to the Kabul International Airport, however, reiterating that the country remained committed to the Afghan peace efforts. The spokesperson said, “Regarding proposal of security of Kabul airport, I’m not aware of any such consideration by Pakistan. However, we remain committed to play our due role in the Afghan Peace Process,” adding, “I wish to reiterate that due to Pakistan’s facilitative role, the peace process has reached an important stage. We remain committed to peace in Afghanistan and will continue playing our role sincerely.” (“Pakistan says no proposal on table for Kabul Airport security,” The Express Tribune, 18 June 2021)

EU, Pakistan reiterate support for intra-Afghan talks
On 18 June, The Express Tribune reported that European Union’s Special Envoy for Afghanistan Tomas Niklasson has praised Pakistan for its proactive role for regional peace and stability, particularly for Afghanistan. In a statement issued by EU Pakistan, the envoy said “the EU and Pakistan reiterate their strong support for an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process, involving all stakeholders to collectively work for achieving lasting peace in the region and Afghanistan in particular.” (“EU, Pakistan reiterate support for intra-Afghan ‘peace process’,” The Express Tribune, 18 June 2021)

An editorial in Dawn argues that reforming the electoral process is vital for Pakistan, and doing so by taking everyone on board is equally important. It stated that there is time available so there is no need to rush into it, adding, hopefully, the government can rise beyond its partisan approach and do the right thing. Similarly, an editorial in The News International says that passing such important laws without any debate is tantamount to flouting all democratic and legislative norms that must be adhered to in parliamentary democracies.

An opinion in The Express Tribune on the WWF-Pakistan ‘Recharge Pakistan programme’ says that this could make a significant impact on addressing our imminent environmental challenges. Meanwhile, an opinion in Dawn on the dispute over the Indus waters argues that treating the symptoms with accords, treaties or telemetries will never resolve the Sindh-Punjab or Pakistan-India disputes, suggesting that the cause is what needs to be addressed to restore the river’s rhythms. 

In Focus
By D. Suba Chandran

Yesterday, Dawn reported “hundreds of fishermen, political workers and members of civil society” staging a protest rally against the government of Pakistan for issuing fishing licences to Chinese trawlers in Gwadar. According to the new report, the rally was called by the National Party and Baloch Student Organisation.
 
This is not the first time there is a protest in Gwadar against what is happening to the principal coastal town of Balochistan. There is a clash of interests between what the local Baloch, the federal government of Pakistan, and Beijing want from Gwadar. The issue spills beyond just the Chinese developing a port in Gwadar.
 
First, the immediate issue – that of the local fishermen in Gwadar. Their latest protest is against the federal government of Pakistan issuing fishing rights to the Chinese trawlers. The fishermen in Gwadar, and in the rest of the Makran coast is still a generation behind in using the latest technology in fishing. Fishing for the local fishermen is more of a subsistence economy than a profitable business. The livelihood of the local fishermen and a substantial part of the local economy along the Makran coast depend on fishing. There is a sizeable element of smuggling as another economic activity, but that is more towards the west of the Makran coast along the Iran border. The fishermen in this section depend on fishing and are still using local boats. Competition with the Sindhi fishermen has been an issue for long, and the local fishermen have been fighting a losing battle over their rights to fish. The latest issue over granting fishing rights to the Chinese trawlers need to be analysed in this background.
 
It is not only fishing but many related activities, in Gwadar, is being protested by the local tribes – fishermen or otherwise. For example, the fencing of Gwadar town. Since 2020, there is a political divide between the local civil society and the federal government over the idea of fencing Gwadar. The federal government has taken this initiative as part of its security measure; the objective is to make Gwadar not only a port city, but also a fortress. While there are multiple arguments for and against fencing Gwadar, for the purpose of this analysis, it is sufficient to highlight, the political leadership and civil society within Balochistan is divided; so is, the regional and federal polity over the idea. Following protests against the idea of fencing Gwadar, the provincial government in December 2020 announced its stoppage.
 
Outside the fencing, there is so much happening in Gwadar as a part of the Chinese investments and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Besides building the port, the Chinese investments are also pouring into multiple special zones, including an industrial zone and an export processing zone. Chinese are also investing in building the Gwadar airport, besides other related infrastructural projects.
 
If there is investment pouring into developing the port town, the locals should be happy; on the contrary, they are against the idea. Why? Here lies the basic issue in Gwadar. The Chinese see Gwadar as an exit port or the gateway for their CPEC investments. Islamabad and Rawalpindi welcome this and see a strategic opportunity, in the mainland. Without the Gwadar outlet, the CPEC investments would be meaningless for Beijing. Pakistan is well aware of Gwadar’s status within the CPEC, and goes with the Chinese objective.
 
But for the Baloch, Gwadar is their crowning glory in the Makran coast, and not just a coastal town. The Baloch see the investments in Gwadar as a conspiracy to take away their natural resources. There is a history to this Baloch fear, and it starts from the Sui gas project. There is also a problem between the province and federation over the decision-making process. Balochistan feels, that Islamabad uses a few of its coterie in Quetta and does not engage in an inclusive process besides taking vital decisions affecting the province. There is a different political narrative over Gwadar in the Makran coast; besides the larger provincial-federal narrative in Quetta. Islamabad is either insensitive to the narrative or does not care about it.
 
For Beijing, Gwadar is an economic opportunity and is a part of the CPEC. Is it aware of the local political narratives and the provincial-federal differences within Pakistan? Perhaps it does not. Or, perhaps Beijing is aware of the differences but does not understand it. For Gwadar, and the rest of Balochistan, it is not just only Islamabad that is the problem, but also Beijing. 

In Brief
INTERNAL
PHC rejects petition against order to book Aurat March organisers 
On 16 June, the Peshawar High Court rejected a petition challenging a subordinate court’s order for the registration of an FIR against the organisers of Aurat March in Islamabad. The bench observed that no cause of action had so far arisen to move the high court as neither the FIR had been registered nor had any action taken against any of the Aurat March organisers. Further, the court expressed displeasure over the slogans displayed on placards and banners by the march organisers and observed that it was not clear on whose agenda such events were held. (“Plea against order to book Aurat March organisers set aside,” Dawn, 17 June 2021)

Treasury and opposition has some serious thinking to do, says editorial
An editorial in Dawn, critical of the National Assembly proceedings of the week, says there is no justification to why “elected representatives should behave like hooligans, or why such conduct during Assembly proceedings is becoming normalised.” The editorial opines that such behaviour is a dangerous message to the voters and a shameful display to the outside world about the country’s democracy. It calls on the treasury as well as the opposition to think better and create the space for robust debate; it calls on both the sides to be civil in behaviour and be mindful of their actions. It concludes, “Both sides must restrain volatile elements in their parties...energy spent on shouting matches can be put to far better use, given the serious challenges that face our country.” (“Shameful behaviour,” Dawn, 17 June 2021)

Low-lying areas flood following rains in Rawalpindi, Islamabad
On 16 June, Rawalpindi and Islamabad witnessed flooding in low-lying areas owing to heavy rains. The Meteorological Department said 11 mm rain had been recorded at Airport, “4mm at Saidpur and 1mm at Zero Point and Golra in Islamabad while 8mm in Rawalpindi.” However, following rains, the inefficient drainage system led to choking of the sewers in the low lying areas. Traffic too came to a standstill especially at the “Soan Bridge where hundreds of motorists were stuck in the traffic mess.” Meanwhile, the Water and Sanitation Agency Managing Director said that water was cleared immediately and hoped that some more rains would resolve the water shortage in the two cities. (Aamir Yasin and Mohammad Asghar, “Heavy rains flood low-lying areas in Rawalpindi,” Dawn, 17 June 2021)

PROVINCES
Opposition threatens to block highways in Balochistan head of budget presentation
On 17 June, Dawn reported that the opposition in Balochistan had warned of blocking all highways in the province and cordoning off the provincial Assembly prior to the budget session on 18 June, claiming that the government ignored their proposals for the budget. This comes after the opposition leaders, on 15 June, alleged that the provincial government used non-elected people to use funds allocated to the opposition members’ constituencies. Dawn quoted the opposition leaders saying, “Politics of lies and fraud is over; if rights are not given, our protest will continue.” (Saleem Shahid, “Opposition politicians to block Balochistan highways today,” Dawn, 17 June 2021)

ECONOMY
Quitting IMF programme not possible now, says Tarin
On 16 June, Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin stated that it was not possible for Pakistan to get out of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme at a time when the economy is reviving. He said, “It is not possible to get out of the IMF programme at this time,” adding “We were forced to go to the IMF.” Further, he said, “this time the IMF was not friendly with us and the programme was front-loaded and tough,” while comparing with the previous programmes with the fund. He added that the power sector measures would be sustainable and will increase revenue saying, “This is what IMF want from Pakistan. (Mubarak Zeb Khan, “Quitting IMF programme not possible now: Tarin,” Dawn, 17 June 2021)

EXTERNAL
FM Qureshi leaves for Turkey 
On 17 June, FM Shah Mahmood Qureshi left for Turkey to participate in the Antalya Diplomacy Forum. During the meeting, he is set to highlight Pakistan’s vision for regional cooperation, economic development and connectivity. This is FM Qureshi’s second visit to Ankara in almost a month. (“FM Qureshi leaves for Turkey to participate in diplomacy forum,” The Express Tribune, 17 June 2021)

PAKISTAN’S WORLD VIEW
Editorial calls on the West to criticise friends and foes equally
An editorial in Dawn, citing the recent remarks at the NATO and G7 summits expressing concern over China’s activities in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Taiwan Strait, says that such forums “choose to pillory geopolitical rivals, while keeping silent about friends and partners.” The editorial opines that the West fails to criticise Israel’s actions on Palestinians and the authoritarian tendencies of several Middle Eastern leaderships. It says, “If respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms are the cornerstones of foreign policy — as they should be — then friends and foes must be treated the same on these counts.” Further, it expresses that increasing rhetoric against China and Russia “risks igniting renewed conflict.” (“West on China,” Dawn, 17 June 2021)

Latest Israeli airstrike reflects fragility of peace with Palestine, says editorial
An editorial in The News International, referring to the latest Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip, says that the development exposes the fragility of the peace between Israel and Palestine. The editorial opines that the newly-elected President Naftali Benett’s “past suggests that even though he talks of peace, he will be unwilling to reach any compromise with the Palestinians.” It says, meanwhile, the Palestinian voices are unlikely to be heard and no one is willing to “give them any place in which they can live in peace and where they can govern by their own will.” (“Back to war,” The News International, 17 June 2021)

ON INDIA
Pakistan takes J&K to the UNSC, apprises India’s possible plans seeking "division and bifurcation of the valley"
On 17 June, The Express Tribune reported that Pakistan has approached the UN Security Council (UNSC), expressing grave concern on reports suggesting that India may be contemplating the imposition of further “illegal and unilateral measures” in Jammu and Kashmir. In a letter addressed to the UNSC President, FM Shah Mehmood Qureshi explained to the council about the government of India’s possible plans, seeking division, bifurcation and additional demographic changes in the occupied territory. (Kamran Yousaf, “Pakistan takes India’s IIOJK move to UNSC,” The Express Tribune, 17 June 2021)

An opinion in Dawn argues that this week’s proceedings of the National Assembly have shown that the parliament has become almost dysfunctional, adding that there are now concerns that the system is overheating, and there is no cooling agent in sight. Similarly, an editorial in The Express Tribune states that with such behaviour on display during an all-important budget session, many citizens are rightly concerned by whether this National Assembly is even capable of legislating.

An opinion in Dawn on the electoral reform proposals says that if the government does not engage opposition in dialogue, its last two years may be spent in dealing with a controversy over electoral laws. It argues that the controversy may escalate to a point where the holding of elections itself may be jeopardised.

An opinion in The Express Tribune states that despite the pandemic, it is clear that the political class in Pakistan has nothing to do except politicise every issue. It says, should floods come, the country would instead of having two, may suffer from three disasters. The best preparedness step one could suggest in these times is to beg the political class to declare truce.

In Brief
INTERNAL
National Assembly witnesses fistfights and profanities
On 15 June, the National Assembly witnessed chaos for the second day as the opposition and treasury members scuffled with each other and used budget documents and books as rockets when the treasury members continued protesting to disrupt the budget speech of Shehbaz Sharif. Speaker Asad Qaiser suspended the proceedings of the house three times due to the ruckus in the house. (Amir Wasim, “Fistfights, profanities mar National Assembly session,” Dawn, 16 June 2021)

Finance Bill proposes sweeping powers for FBR; opposition calls it “draconian”
On 16 June, The News International reported on the provisions of the Finance Bill 2021-22. The news report says that under the bill, the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is empowered to arrest and prosecute “a  taxpayer accused of a tax offence without even filing a complaint before the special judge.” Any officer of the FBR will be authorised to do so. Meanwhile, the Senate Committee on Finance opposed the proposal; opposition members also termed it a “draconian” move. The News International further explains that there are concerns over the FBR’s proposal as “the Income Tax Ordinance (ITO) 2001 already has provisions for prosecution.” (Mehtab Haider, “Finance Bill: Sweeping powers proposed for FBR to make arrests,” The News International, 16 June 2021)

Government to exempt political parties from filing income tax returns, paying taxes
On 16 June, The Express Tribune reported that the government in the Finance Bill 2021 laid before the parliament has proposed to exempt all political parties from filing their annual income and wealth record while also declaring their incomes tax-free. The government has included the “Political Parties registered with Election Commission of Pakistan” in Table 1 of clause 66 of the second schedule of Income Tax Ordinances. (Shahbaz Rana, “Political parties exempted from filing income tax returns, paying taxes,” The Express Tribune, 16 June 2021)

ECP expresses concern over clauses of electoral reforms bill
On 15 June, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) expressed severe concerns over some clauses in the electoral reforms bill passed by the National Assembly. The Chief Election Commissioner after a review meeting on the amendments raised serious reservations including voting rights for overseas Pakistanis as well as the use of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) and has assessed that many proposed amendments may violate constitutional requirements. Further, the commission stated that it has already submitted its response to the relevant parliamentary committee but regretfully it was not included in the bill. (Fahd Husain, “CP alarmed at 28 clauses of electoral reforms bill,” Dawn, 16 June 2021)

Set aside personal likes and dislikes, editorial urges PTI and PPP
An editorial in Dawn, citing the war of words between the federal Information Minister and the Sindh CM’s spokesperson, says that the “mutual acrimony” will aggravate the centre-province tensions. Tracing the difference of opinions between the PPP and the PTI, the editorial wonders why the Information Minister carried out an “unprovoked attack” on the Sindh leadership. Further, it opines that if the Minister was attempting to charge up the PTI voter base in the province, “he may want to first consider how his party...has paid so little attention to it.” Outlining the fallouts of these differences and their impact on the people, the editorial calls on the PTI and PPP leadership to “cast aside their personal likes and dislikes...and keep the centre-province system running smoothly.” (“Centre-Sindh tension,” Dawn, 16 June 2021)

PROVINCES
PPP questions impartiality of IRSA teams
On 16 June, The Express Tribune reported that the PPP government in Sindh has refused to allow the teams constituted by the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) to monitor the discharge of water at the barrages in the province and raised questions about their impartiality. The Sindh irrigation department stated in a letter to IRSA said that it has strong reservations about the monitoring teams, adding, "We will not allow monitoring of the barrages until impartial teams are formed." (Sindh questions impartiality of IRSA teams,” The Express Tribune, 16 June 2021)

ECONOMY
CM Murad presents Rs 1.47 trillion tax free budget
On 15 June, the Sindh Chief Minister presented the provincial budget amid ruckus created by the opposition members. The Rs 1.47 trillion tax-free budget comprises allocation of Rs 329 billion for development, Rs 17.4 billion for health risk allowance for healthcare personnel in 2020-21, and Rs 30.9 billion for social protection. The budget has increased by 19 per cent from 1.24 trillion of the outgoing fiscal year. Meanwhile, he explained that in the outgoing year, only Rs 960 billion was transferred to Sindh from the centre, against the estimated Rs 1073.7 billion. (Tahir Siddiqui, “BUDGET 2021-22: Sindh presents Rs1,477.9bn tax-free budget,” Dawn, 16 June 2021)

G20 suspends Pakistan's loan repayment of USD 3.7 billion
On 15 June, the Information Minister said that the G-20 countries had suspended the repayment of a USD 3.7 billion loan by Pakistan due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. He said, “The suspension of the loan, which was liable to be repaid instantly, is good news for the national economy.” The loan repayment has been suspended till the end of the year. (“G-20 puts off Pakistan’s $3.7b loan repayment,” The Express Tribune, 16 June 2021)

EXTERNAL
COAS calls for preparedness along borders
On 15 June, COAS Bajwa called on the Pakistan Army to continue the “high standards of operational preparedness” at the LoC and the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in line with the “evolving geo-strategic milieu.” The News International quoted the ISPR, “COAS commended the formations for their constant focus on training and high state of morale which augments their operational readiness.” The remarks were made at the 78th Formation Commanders’ Conference. Further, the ISPR said, “Forum was also briefed on the cutting edge technologies being harnessed to modernise Army’s outfits besides up-gradation of logistics infrastructure corresponding to emerging operational imperatives.” (“Army chief directs military to maintain preparedness along country's borders,” The News International, 15 June 2021)

ON FATF
Pakistan has implemented 26 of the 27-point FATF Action Plan
On 15 June, sources in the Ministry of Finance stated that Pakistan's progress on the FATF Action Plan was reviewed at a virtual meeting of the International Cooperation Review Group (ICRG). According to the sources, Pakistan has implemented 26 of the 27-point FATF Action Plan, adding, “There is partial progress on the point of conviction. Relevant laws have been amended in this regard. Therefore, it is hoped that there will be good news for Pakistan at the FATF's Plenary Session starting from June 21.” (“Pakistan one point shy of meeting FATF conditions,” The Express Tribune, 16 June 2021)

ON COVID-19
Covid jab shortage across vaccination centres in Karachi, Lahore
On 15 June, a serious shortage of Covid-19 vaccines halted the vaccination process in Karachi and Lahore. In Lahore, authorities were forced to close two vaccination centres/camps while some others in the rest of the province may also face closure due to the shortage. In Karachi, a shortage of vaccines has been prevailing which has led to the closure of some centres located in the city. (Faiza Ilyas, “Covid jab shortage hits vaccination centres in Karachi,” Dawn, 16 June 2021) (Asif Chaudhry, “Punjab short of Covid vials,” Dawn, 16 June 2021)

An opinion in Dawn on ‘Countering ‘Islamophobia’ argues that sadly, killing in the name of faith is far more prevalent in our country, adding, the PTI government’s overdose of religiosity has imparted a sense of impunity to extremist religious groups.

In Focus

Last week, in a two part series titled “India’s nuclear recklessness,” referring to a news report on the “illegal possession and sale of uranium being caught by Indian police,” Dr Shireen Mazari has raised her concerns about “one more in a history of nuclear materials going missing or attempting to be smuggled out of India” and the international community choosing “to remain silent on India’s nuclear transgressions, of which there have been many.” Referring to “an Indian parliamentary report,”  she argues, “147 mishaps or safety-related unusual occurrences were reported between 1995 and 1998 in Indian atomic energy plants. Of these, 28 were of an acute nature and 9 of these 28 occurred in the nuclear power installations.” 

Quoting Indian sources, she refers to a series of incidents involving the theft and seizure of uranium. According to Dr Mazari, the uranium theft in India, raises “certain disturbing questions.” They include: “How and why, in most cases, the uranium was found in the hands of scrap dealers. Why were charges not leveled against those found in possession of the radioactive material? Why, in a number of cases, did the hospitals change their position on the thefts? Who are the potential buyers for the scrapped radioactive material in India, and is the material intended for internal or international buyers?”

Her first major question is “whether there is a nuclear mafia present in India.” Her second question is about “the security of the Indian nuclear facilities, including their research facilities.” 

She also refers to certain patterns based on her above observation and concerns. First, “most of the accused have been scrap dealers who are obviously used as front men, which may well indicate the prevalence of organised crime relating to nuclear materials.” She also refers to the nuclear facilities in India and their employees having “links to possible mafias.” 

Second, she refers to the “Indian nuclear facilities” and the “whole issue of their safety – especially in relation to theft and nuclear terrorism.” The reasoning for the above argument is, the source of uranium theft, though reported by the police and linked to cancer hospitals, “the amounts supposedly stolen from hospitals are far more than the normal requirements of these hospitals.”

Third,  she refers to the “safety of transportation of nuclear materials from the mining stages to the spent fuel storage becomes critical in the dynamics of nuclear theft and technical safety of the facilities.” 

Fourth, she compares referring to AQ Khan’s episode in Pakistan, and writes, “Indian state’s proliferation record is equally poor.” 

Fifth, on the above issue – the wide publicity that AQ Khan received, she writes, “while Pakistan has been and continues to be pilloried ad nauseum over the Dr A Q Khan episode,” she accuses “the silence over the Indian state’s massive proliferation record reveals the hypocrisy and duality of approach of the international community on the entire nuclear issue.” 

What is the larger objective of the above analysis? What it attempts to achieve? Dr Mazari’s analysis is not a standalone input. One could identify a trend in the recent years, especially since the India debate in the NSG began. There is an attempt to create a narrative in Pakistan to project India as an irresponsible nuclear state, and does not deserve any recognition or waiver by global nuclear institutions including NSG and IAEA. 

The above narrative aims to convince the domestic audience inside Pakistan that India (along with Israel) has also engaged in nuclear black market, and the international community has victimized only Pakistan. Once convinced within, the narrative will have more voices within Pakistan to create more similar stories leaving a larger internet footprint accusing India of an irresponsible nuclear state.

An editorial in Dawn critical of the eviction operations in Karachi says that it is always the poor who end up paying the price for the questionable policies of the government. It argues that this is economic apartheid and might sow the seeds of class-based and ethnic unrest in the city, adding that the authorities should reconsider their approach.

An opinion in The Express Tribune says that the budget will help in restoring business confidence. However, besides the budget, the government must realise that the political narrative now also needs to change gears and shift from accountability to prosperity, development, growth and reforms.

An opinion in The Express Tribune argues that inter-provincial disputes on water can be resolved by amending the 1991 accord to ensure that the provinces receive their share of water entitlement, maintain transparency and prevent wastage of water.

In Foucs

By Apoorva Sudhakar 

On 14 June, The Express Tribune reported that the government proposes to generate Rs 10 billion from income taxes charged on the salaried class on their “medical treatment, various allowances and their savings in provident and pension funds.” The development comes after the government, while presenting the budget, had said it would not increase the tax burden on the salaried class. Instead, the government had proposed to increase its tax revenue through taxes on mobile and internet users. Therefore, a tax expert says that with the latest development, the government has, without increasing slab rates, “tacitly increased tax burden of 57%.” 

However, the decision is not surprising; several analyses had raised doubts over how the government would achieve its tax target of Rs 5.83 trillion without burdening the salaried class. The target and the strategy seemed too ambitious given Pakistan's narrow tax base which has contributed to the dependence on IMF bailouts and the like. In what seemed like a feel-good budget, the government had announced several new tax incentives; therefore, to achieve its tax target, it was inevitable that the government had to either find new strategies or include the untaxed and under-taxed sectors into the tax net. Of the two options, introducing new strategies is easier; many successive governments have tried to bring the untaxed groups into the tax bracket and “failed because of their fear of the political fallout of the move.”

The government, however, while trying to satisfy different sectors - business, industry, daily wagers and so on - seems to have forgotten the IMF conditions. For example, an opinion refers to the budget’s provisions for the power sector which is the IMF's key area of concern. Focusing on the proposed power sector subsidies amounting to Rs 596 billion of the total proposed Rs 682 billion, the author opines that the government has the task to convince the IMF about the power subsidies. If the IMF agrees, then the government will have to ensure that the circular debt does not further accumulate. He asked how the government will be able to do so, especially with the proposed tax cuts and concluded that the government seems to have committed to two sets - the creditors and the citizens. However, “it cannot keep them both...Now we wait to see which one of these commitments it succeeds in getting itself out of first.” The latest proposal to generate Rs 10 billion taxes from the salaried class has started to paint a clearer picture regarding the government’s commitment and, therefore, seems to have answered the author’s question. 

Meanwhile…

The provincial budgets of Punjab and Sindh are set to be presented. 

The Punjab budget has an estimated outlay of Rs 2.653 trillion for the fiscal year 2021-22. The provincial government aims at a revenue (tax and non-tax) of Rs 400 billion for FY. Further, The News International explains that for the first time, “a separate annual development plan with a tune of Rs189 billion is allocated for south Punjab.” Apart from the above, 35 per cent of all developmental project funds will be allocated to South Punjab. 

Meanwhile, the Sindh government aims at a “tax-free” budget (no new taxes) with an increased focus on infrastructural development. The Sindh Chief Minister said that the provincial government employees will be given a 25 per cent hike and minimum wages will be increased more than that of the federal government’s hike. 
 

An opinion in Dawn argues that fulfilling FATF compliance is not a one-time task; instead, it is about regulating financial flows and the regulations will need a permanent mechanism.

An editorial in Dawn critical of the power shortages says it is high time that governance and structural reforms were introduced in the energy sector unless the government wants to leave an even bigger mess when its term ends.

An editorial in Dawn says that without a holistic approach, Pakistan’s water woes stand little chance of being addressed in a sustainable fashion, adding that the consequences, as water becomes even scarcer, will be devastating.

An opinion in Dawn argues that it’s not necessarily accurate to argue that Pakistan is experiencing its own populist moment in exactly the same way as right-wing populists in other parts of the world. Rather that the country’s politics is not immune to being shaped by regional and global populisms in a myriad of ways, and that this influence will assert itself in a variety of possibly conservative (or even autocratic) tendencies.
 

On 10 June, Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin presented the fiscal year 2021-2022 in the National Assembly amid criticism from the opposition members. Tarin presented the government’s estimated expenditures, revenues, and how it aims to allocate funds for vital sectors of the economy. He announced that the total outlay of the budget had been kept at Rs 8,478 billion, with the tax target set at Rs 5,829 billion. During his speech, he said, "I feel happy in announcing that the stabilization phase is now over, and Budget 2021-22 will focus on inclusive and sustainable growth," adding, "The budget 2021-22 will be about fostering growth and investment." Meanwhile, PM Imran Khan said that the budget would be a people-friendly budget saying, “Everyone will be happy today.”

Recovery and stabilisation to sustainable growth, key priorities for the government
While presenting the budget Tarin said that the government's priorities include inclusive and sustainable economic growth; pro-poor initiatives and social safety net through the Ehsaas Programme; reduction in inflation; job creation; addressing Covid-19 related issues; circular debt financing and power subsidies; revenue mobilization without new taxes; support to the housing sector; PM's initiatives; facilitating expatriates remittances and Pakistan Remittances Initiatives and other schemes.

Various allocations made by the government

Image Source: Geo News

Key priorities
The finance minister announced that for FY22, the government had set the GDP growth target at 4.8 per cent. The government targets to keep inflation at 8.2 per cent. The total expenditure budget is estimated at Rs 8,487 billion which is almost 19 per cent higher than the last year's budget. The current expenditure budgeted for FY22 stands at Rs7,523 billion.

Focus on PSDP
The key allocation of the included, total allocations for the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) have been budgeted at Rs 2,135 billion, under this, federal PSDP makes up Rs 900 billion, an increase of 37 per cent from last year's development allocations.; minimum wage has been increased to Rs 20,000; pensions and federal government employees' salaries to see a 10 per cent increase; agriculture sector has been allotted Rs 12 billion; Rs 260 billion for the Ehsaas programme. Higher Education Commission for education programmes to be provided Rs 66 billion; Rs 118 billion for power distribution; Rs 61 billion for Viability Gap Fund; Rs 14 billion for Climate Change mitigation projects, USD 1.1 billion for vaccines procurement; Rs 100 billion for Covid-19 Emergency Fund; Rs 12 billion special grant for Sindh.

Tax targets
The government has decided that there was no new tax being imposed on the salaried class in the budget. The government has set the tax collection target for the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) at Rs 5,829 billion, which is 17.4 per cent higher than last year’s target. However, to achieve this target at least Rs 383 billion worth of additional taxes have been slapped on.

On fiscal deficit
The fiscal deficit for FY22 has been budgeted at Rs 3,420 billion, which is around 6.3 per cent of the GDP.

On defence 
With regard to defence, the government has allocated Rs1,370 billion, marking an increase of 6.2 per cent. Expenditure on Defence Services makes up around 16 per cent of total expenditure budgeted for FY22, a down from 18 per cent last year. The government has also allotted Rs200m for the Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority, Rs8.3 billion for the Science and Technological Research Division, and Rs7.36 billion for Suparco.

Tax exemption for new businesses
The budget included exemptions and relief measures for nearly all industries, and new businesses and products being brought into the tax net seemed far fewer in comparison. However, there were downsides for the average consumer, especially with the imposition of federal excise duty (FED) on cellular services and e-cigarettes.

Opposition to give a tough time to the government

Image Source: Geo News

Meanwhile, the opposition has stated that they will work together and give a tough time to the government and not let it pass the budget. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari said that the people who might have been listening to Tarin’s speech "must have been thinking that this is some other country's budget," adding, "The prime minister and finance minister's claims of economic growth are baseless amid such a situation." Meanwhile, Shahbaz Sharif said that the Opposition would join hands and give a tough time to the government during the budget session and will expose their "fudged" figures.

Similarly, former Finance Minister Miftah Ismail, of the PML-N, is critical of the budget and says that like the previous three budgets of the PTI, the government will not be able to meet the target of tax revenues in the upcoming FY also. He outlines the need to address unemployment and poverty; solutions to these problems, he opines, lies in industrial and agricultural growth. Here, he says, “There was much good intention shown in the budget speech but little by way of specific incentives.” Further, he highlights the inflation and the increasing food prices; he says the budget has failed to bring respite to an average Pakistani on the above issues. 

What the media has to say
An editorial in Dawn expresses skepticism about the budget regarding the announced development package of Rs 900 billion and the tax targets of Rs 5.83 trillion. The editorial outlines the Finance Act 2022 wherein the government looks to achieve “‘additional revenues’ through a 30pc increase in income tax and sales tax.”  It then outlines that the Budget 2021-22 provides for several tax incentives and wonders how the government will then achieve its target. It opines that to achieve the target, the government will have to “broaden the tax base by bringing untaxed and under-taxed sectors such as retail into the net.” This would be a tricky step as successive governments have been unable to implement the same due to fear of political backlash. Therefore, it says that if the tax targets are not achieved, then the government will have to borrow or cut down its fiscal stimulus to finance the development allocation. 

Similarly, The News international outlines the above observations on the development package and wonders how the government will finance it, especially in the least developed parts of Pakistan, namely Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. It opines that though the budget sounds reassuring and that Tarin has outlined an “inclusive growth” approach, there is a risk of the mirage fading away. It also highlights that as of now, inflation and de-growth are the major concerns; therefore, “There is still a long way to go before the PTI government can claim to have delivered on its economic promises.” It maintains that the budget could be starting step towards a positive direction, however the onus is on the government to convince people to cooperate on taxation.

In Brief
INTERNAL
FIA completes investigation into sugar scandal; decides to not arrest Tareen, Shehbaz
On 11 June, The Express Tribune reported that the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) had decided to not arrest Jahangir Tareen, Ali Tareen, Shehbaz Sharif and Hamza Sharif. Instead, the FIA conveyed to the Adviser to the PM on Accountability and Interior that the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) will probe further into the sugar case against the four persons. The FIA investigation concluded that they were making profits through scams, hoarding and tax evasion. The FIA held that it is the FBR’s duty to recover the money they made through tax evasion. (“FIA decides not to arrest Tareen, Shehbaz,” The Express Tribune, 11 June 2021)

PPP expresses reservations against electoral reforms 
On 11 June, a PPP delegation met with the Chief Election Commissioner; the party members conveyed their concerns over the passing of the bill on electoral reforms. Sherry Rehman told reporters that the party members were concerned over the “electoral reforms which should have been debated in the parliament and a decision should have been made keeping in mind views of all political parties. The bill that the PTI government has bulldozed through the NA is a direct subversion to our electoral and democratic system.” She opined that the government was now institutionalising rigging. She also maintained that the ECP reports on electronic and internet voting had not been presented for three years, adding that “The PPP has always been an advocate of electoral reforms and it would make more sense if the ECP carried out these reforms.” (“PPP opposes electronic voting, conveys concerns to CEC,” Dawn, 12 June 2021)

Judiciary must protect other state institutions, says SC
On 11 June, the Supreme Court, while hearing Judge Shaukat Aziz’s appeal against the Supreme Judicial Council’s order to sack him in 2018, said that it is the judiciary’s duty to protect other institutions. The SJC had recommended sacking the former Islamabad High Court judge for a speech in which “he had accused the top intelligence agency of manipulating courts.” During the year on 11 June, Justice Bandial said, “We all know the speech, its contents and the facts surrounding it. You expressed your grudge in the speech. You chose a public forum to lodge complaints against people. We are supposed to protect the state institutions. If we did not protect the institutions then who would.” Meanwhile, the counsel for the judge maintained that the SJC had taken a suo motu action against his client and that the reference was not issued by the President. (Aqeel Afzal, “Judiciary must protect other institutions: SC,” The Express Tribune, 12 June 2021)

PROVINCES
One soldier martyred, two terrorists killed in Balochistan: ISPR
On 11 June, the ISPR said that a Frontier Corps soldier had been martyred in Balochistan’s Kharan district in an intelligence-based operation. The ISPR said two terrorists had also been killed during the operation. The development comes less than a month after “four soldiers were martyred and eight others injured in two separate attacks in Balochistan” on 31 May. (Naveed Siddiqui, “FC soldier martyred in intelligence-based operation in Kharan: ISPR,” Dawn, 12 June 2021)

PAKISTAN’S GENDER DEBATE
Opinion outlines fallouts on gender differences in syllabus
An opinion in Dawn refers to instances of self-censorship in the biology syllabus wherein some provinces have removed the female reproductive system from the textbooks. The author opines that it is ironical that “in a country which suffers from a high maternal mortality rate, where anaemia amongst women is endemic, where the ratio of men to women in the population is regressive, where the fertility rate is growing at an untrammelled pace, we certainly don’t need to include the female reproductive system in the biology curriculum.” She draws parallels with Amartya Sen’s essay on missing women and says Pakistan will experience the same if science is not left to the subject experts. She is also critical of the Muttahida Ulema Board’s decision to omit biological diagrams without clothes from the textbooks and opines that the “conservative Muslim ulema is not only hostile but schizophrenic towards science…” Therefore, she says such steps can have disastrous effects for Pakistan “where the quality of healthcare and the incidence of quackery is high.” (Roshaneh Zafar, “Missing gender,” Dawn, 12 June 2021)

PAKISTAN’S WORLD VIEW
Opinion says US is deliberately pushing Afghanistan towards chaos
An opinion in The News International refers to the highlights of Ashraf Ghani and Hamid Karzai's interview with a German magazine and concludes that the US is “deliberately  undermining prospects of peace and stability in the region.” The author reasons that the US tactics, including the search for a military base in Pakistan, is “creating troubles for Pakistan and causing animosity with the Taliban.” He opines that Pakistan and China will reap most benefits of peace in the region as it would pave the way for CPEC; therefore, referring to the US-China rivalry, the author asks whether the US will hesitate from creating an “arc of crisis” of Pakistan and China. He says the same argument will also stand true for US strategy towards “its other two rivals: Iran and Russia.” Therefore, he suggests that China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan should come together and convince “Afghanistan's warring parties for meaningful reconciliation through aggressive diplomacy” to “thwart America's dangerous designs and cunning tactics.” (Saleem Safi, “Pakistan and China: the new US game,” The News International, 12 June 2021)

An opinion in Dawn stated that the scope of information technology or digitisation continues to be discussed in a rather limited manner in mainstream discourse in Pakistan. It argues that what Pakistan must do to accelerate its tech transformation.

In Focus
By D. Suba Chandran

On the eve of presenting the budget for 2021-22, Pakistan released its latest issue (2020-21) of the Economic Survey yesterday (Thursday).

According to Shaukat Tarin, Pakistan's minister for finance: "The economic recovery helped the government to achieve a provisional GDP growth rate of 3.94 per cent in the wake of improved agriculture and large-scale manufacturing sectors. Initially, the COVID-19 outbreak affected the jobs of over 20 million, but the decision of smart lockdown regained jobs, and only 2 million jobs were affected. Pakistan has become net importer of food items instead of net exporters, and there is a need to bring a paradigm shift in it."

The data presented in the Economic Survey needs a larger analysis. But first, it is essential to look into the data presented on crucial areas. A quick analysis can be made in comparison with the quarterly reports published by the State Bank of Pakistan. The quarterly reports of the SBP are available online.

First, the positive notes. According to the Economic Survey, the "inflows of foreign exchange through the Roshan Digital Account (RDA) crossed the $1 billion mark. During July-April FY2021, workers' remittances posted historically high growth of 29 per cent and reached to $ 24.2 billion." Increased remittances have been a consistent story during the last year. Earlier reports by the State Bank of Pakistan have also referred to this; ever since the PTI government introduced the Roshan Digital Account, there has been a consistent increase in remittances, especially from the Gulf countries. According to the Survey, "Remittances witnessed a remarkable growth as more formal channels were opted due to restrictions imposed on informal means in the wake of COVID-19. Most importantly, measures undertaken as part of anti-money laundering regulations in accordance with FATF recommendations have also facilitated a shift from informal to formal channels of sending remittances. Similarly, efforts under the Pakistan Remittances Initiative (PRI) and the gradual re-opening of businesses in major host countries such as the Middle East, UK and the USA also played their part in giving a boost to the remittances."

The Survey also posits a higher rate of GDP growth for Pakistan in 2021. According to the Survey, "the provisional GDP growth rate for FY2021 is estimated at 3.94 percent, higher than the targeted growth of 2.1 percent, for the outgoing fiscal year." This increase in GDP rate is explained to three vital statistics relating to agriculture, industrial and services sectors. According to the report, these three sectors have respectively grown at 2.77, 3.57 and 4.43 per cent.

The government links the growth in the agriculture sector with its interventions that include the National Agriculture Emergency Programme, Rabi Package "to reduce the input cost for the farmers", the Minimum Support Price for wheat and the agriculture credit disbursement. Given the COVID related issues over lockdown, what the Survey says on the industrial sector is substantial. The Survey reasons the following "accommodative policies by the government" as reasons for the "remarkable turnaround." These include "relief to export-oriented industries, duty exemption under China-Pak Free Trade Agreement-II, electricity and gas subsidy for the export-oriented industries and tax exemptions for electric vehicles manufacturers."

On the crucial fiscal deficit, the Survey says, "the government's fiscal consolidation efforts provided significant support in maintaining fiscal discipline, increasing revenues and controlling expenditures, thus the fiscal sector continued to perform better." According to the Survey, the fiscal deficit "was contained at 3.5 per cent of GDP during July-March FY2021 against 4.1 per cent of GDP in the same period of last year. The primary balance posted a surplus of Rs 451.8 billion during July-March, FY2021 against the surplus of Rs 193.5 billion in same period last year."

With the budget being presented today (Friday), Pakistan's economy needs to be analysed in the backdrop of what the latest Economic Survey highlights. Pakistan Reader will carry out an in-depth analysis of the current economic situation and provide a larger analysis in comparison with other reports and analyses.

In Brief
INTERNAL
Literacy rate remains stagnant at 60 per cent, says Economic Survey
The Economic Survey 2020-21 has shown that the literacy rate in Pakistan remains stagnant at 60 per cent and education-related expenditures witnessed a decrease of 29.6 per cent in the year 2019-20. The report said, “According to the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLSM) district-level survey 2019-20, the literacy rate of population (10 years and above) is stagnant at 60 per cent in 2019-20 since 2014-15.” (Kashif Abbasi, “Literacy rate stagnant at 60pc,” Dawn, 11 June 2021) (Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21, Ministry of Finance Division)

National Assembly passes 21 bills despite lack of quorum
On 10 June, the National Assembly passed 21 bills covering various areas including holding Senate elections through open ballots. The NA also passed bills granting voting rights to dual citizens and the use of technology to conditionally let dual citizens participate in elections. The bills were passed despite the opposition maintaining that there was a lack of quorum. Bilawal Bhutto opined that the government should have been able to listen to the opposition. The Express Tribune quoted him saying, “If you talk to us, we will support you. Overseas Pakistanis should not contest against us but with each other.” (“NA passes laws on electoral reforms, Jadhav,” The Express Tribune, 10 June 2021) 

Editorial criticises “political bartering” in the Senate
An editorial in Dawn citing the recent allotment of chairperson positions of various Senate committees to those supporting the main political parties asks why these positions are “being handed out as though they were personal thank you tokens.” The editorial outlining that Senate committees hold an important role and deals with issues of national significance, opines that the chairpersons should have been chosen on merit. It says that the practice of “political bartering” or rewarding allies has become common. It concludes that “instead of doing the right thing by the public and making appointments on merit, the lawmakers have dealt a blow to the spirit of democracy.” (“Political bartering,” Dawn, 11 June 2021)

PROVINCE 
Sindh govt rejects IRSA’s plan to monitor flows at barrages
On 11 June, Dawn reported that the Sindh government has rejected the proposed programme of monitoring flows’ measurement at barrages of Sindh and Punjab without first initiating the due process of consultation over it. The irrigation secretary of the Sindh government in a letter addressed to the Irsa chairman rejecting the programme of flow monitoring. The programme was proposed by the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) amid the tension between the two over water distribution during periods of shortages. (Mohammad Hussain Khan, “Sindh rejects Irsa’s plan of monitoring flows at barrages,” Dawn, 11 June 2021)

ECONOMY
Government set to present the federal budget today
On 11 June, the government will present the federal budget 2021-22 with a total outlay of over Rs8.5 trillion. According to The News International, the government aims at moving towards graduating from stabilization to growth trajectory by ensuring direct interventions for providing relief to 4-6 million poor people. The budget revolves around 3Ds on the expenditures front including debt servicing, defence and development. The major challenge for the budget makers would be presenting the estimates of total revenues and expenditures that give direction to the economy for reaching close to five per cent of GDP and satisfying the IMF. Govt presents Rs8.5tr budget 2021-22 today,” The News International, 11 June 2021) Meanwhile, the PML-Q has again raised reservations ahead of the federal and Punjab budgets. The party warned that they will not support the government in the budget sessions. (Mansoor Malik, “PML-Q airs reservations just ahead of budget,” Dawn, 11 June 2021)

IMF told about no hike in power tariff, new taxes, says Finance Minister
On 10 June, Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin stated that the IMF’s conditions to increase electricity prices and to add Rs150 billion taxes on the salaried class are a “red line” for Pakistan. He said, “The IMF has asked to increase personal income tax and power tariffs but we cannot put any additional burden on the poor people and the salaried class,” adding, “Putting more tax burden on the salaried class and increasing tariffs for the poor on the IMF’s demands is redline for Pakistan.” Further, he said talks with the IMF may prolong. (Shahbaz Rana, “No hike in power tariff, new taxes, IMF told,” The Express Tribune, 11 June 2021)

EXTERNAL
Qureshi stresses need for cooperation with US for regional peace
On 10 June, Foreign Minister Qureshi spoke with the Chairman Foreign Affairs Committee of US House of Representatives. They discussed the situation in Afghanistan and outlined that peace in the country is necessary for Pakistan’s economic progress. Qureshi stressed on the need for peace to enhance regional linkages and outlined that a US-Pakistan cooperation is necessary for peace in South Asia. Meanwhile, the Chairman Foreign Affairs Committee is reported to have said that Pakistan’s efforts towards peace in the region are commendable. (“Pakistan, US unanimous on regional peace: Qureshi,” The News International, 11 June 2021)

ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Government to implement “Recharge Pakistan” to mitigate climate change impact
On 10 June, the federal Minister for Climate Change spoke about “Recharge Pakistan” which is a 30-year programme aimed at enhancing Pakistan’s “resilience to climate change through ecosystem-based adaptations for integrated flood-risk management.” Initiatives under the programme will be jointly implemented by the Ministry of Climate Change, the Federal Flood Commission and WWF-Pakistan. Dawn quoted the Minister, “The programme will address imminent and emerging environmental challenges the country faces such as super floods, droughts, widespread rains, among others, and will focus on building climate resilience for the most vulnerable communities living along the Indus basin.” the government will begin its investment in Recharge Pakistan this year. (“‘Recharge Pakistan to address environmental, water challenges’,” Dawn,11 June 2021)

ON INDIA
NA passes bill granting right of appeal to Jadhav
On 10 June, among the 21 bills passed in the National Assembly, one pertained to Kulbhushan Jadhav which will provide him the right of appeal. The bill was passed despite a lack of quorum; PPP’s Raja Pervez said, “Do you want to give a message to India that half of the country’s population is with India since we had secured votes of half of Pakistanis? Take back your words.” Similarly, PML-N’s Ahsan Iqbal asked why a new law for Jadhav was required when the high courts were reviewing sentences given by military courts. Meanwhile, the Law Minister said the bill was passed in line with the ICJ. (Amir Wasim, “Bill specific to Jadhav bulldozed through National Assembly,” Dawn, 11 June 2021)

Also read
An editorial in Dawn says Tarin says govt, IMF want sustainable economic growth, but both disagree on the path Islamabad must take to attain the objective. Meanwhile, an editorial in The News International says that although the government is apparently in a better position to get today's budget passed in parliament, this will not alleviate the concerns of the IMF which has always been stringent in some of its harsh conditions.

An opinion in The News International says Pakistan was in deep trouble when the PML-N’s term ended. It could again be in a serious crisis soon, unless the PTI improves its performance by focusing on action and not hype.

Najam Sethi on the 'Cricket Crisis' says, "The cruel irony in this decline of cricket in Pakistan relates to the fact that Kaptaan Imran Khan, our cricketing hero of 1992, is the new Patron of PCB. It is Imran Khan who has dictated the new model of domestic cricket that isn’t working. It is Imran Khan who has appointed the clueless bigwigs in the PCB. And it is Imran Khan who will ultimately be held responsible for the decline of the golden game in Pakistan."

In Focus
By D. Suba Chandran

During the last few days, there has been an intense debate and statements relating to the US looking out for military bases in Pakistan, and the latter denying it.

Why would the US want to have a military base in Pakistan? According to a recent New York Times report, “CIA Scrambles for New Approach in Afghanistan,” the Central Intelligence Agency of the US is “seeking ways to maintain its intelligence-gathering, war-fighting and counterterrorism operations.” A larger question here is, if the US wants to leave Afghanistan and has set a deadline of September 2021, why would it be worried about what happens in Afghanistan? According to the New York Times report, “the CIA, which has been at the heart of the 20-year American presence in Afghanistan, will soon lose bases in the country from where it has run combat missions and drone strikes while closely monitoring the Taliban and other groups such as Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. The agency’s analysts are warning of the ever-growing risks of a Taliban takeover.”

If the CIA wants to have a base to pursue the above, it can negotiate with the government in Kabul. Why would it look for a base in the neighbourhood? Furthermore, why would it want the same in Pakistan? For the US, perhaps a base in Afghanistan would be militarily difficult to maintain without the presence of larger American troops. The security of the CIA personnel, or whoever would be there in the base, would be difficult to protect against any Taliban onslaught. Second, it would be a political liability for the US administration if there are any untoward incidents in the base. Questions over the same would reverberate more in Washington. In Kabul, it would not be a tenable position for the US to leave the troops but station CIA or ask for protection from the Afghan troops.

On the other hand, the US find it safer to have a base in the neighbourhood. Taliban’s reach in the provinces of Balochistan or Khyber Pakhtunkhwa would be limited than in Afghanistan. Second, the US can also request Pakistan provide security for any such bases. Especially in Balochistan, the US had operated its drone programme earlier. Third, in terms of distance, it would not be far to observe what is happening in Afghanistan.

But, the larger question is: why would the US want to observe what is happening in Afghanistan, it has decided to leave? Does this mean the US still has not achieved its primary objective in Afghanistan?

Now, to Pakistan. Why would Pakistan not provide space for the US to run a military programme against the Taliban or to observe Pakistan? Is it the question of sovereignty? It would be a weak argument. In the past, Pakistan has provided space for the US; the CIA had operated its drone programme from the Shamsi airbase, not far from Quetta. The Shamsi airbase was earlier leased to the United Arab Emirates; the Emirates used to land there and engage in hunting. So, the sovereignty question is irrelevant in this case. Pakistan had leased its territory earlier, not only to the US, but also to other countries.

Perhaps, there are new calculations today for Pakistan to refuse any space for the US. First, Balochistan and the Chinese interests. As a part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Beijing has made a substantial investment not only in Gwadar but also in the rest of Pakistan’s Balochistan province. China would averse to have an American military base or a CIA programme in Balochistan.

Second, besides China, the Taliban would also be averse to the idea of Pakistan providing space in Balochistan or elsewhere in the country. Taliban has already made an announcement on this. The Pakistani Taliban could use it as a rationale to unleash violence. Third, there could be opposition within Pakistan, given the strong anti-American sentiments. The political and extreme right could use the same against the PTI government. However, the second and third arguments should not be the real concern; they were there in the past, but Pakistan did provide space for the US. Now, the new factor is China. Especially in Balochistan.

In Brief
INTERNAL
Mob attacks police station after BTK violence suspect's arrest
On 9 June, four persons, including three policemen, were wounded after a mob of around 100-150 people attacked the Shah Latif Town police station. According to Dawn, the police claimed that the attack took place after the arrest of a man allegedly involved in the recent Bahria Town Karachi (BTK) violence. Further, the Area SHO said that the people who attacked the police station allegedly belonged to a banned nationalist group. (“Mob attacks Shah Latif police station after arrest of BTK violence suspect,” Dawn, 10 June 2021)

6,500 MW power shortfall leads to load shedding; Nepra seeks explanation from power firms 
On 10 June, The News International reported that despite the government de-rating the capacity to generate electricity up to 29,000 MW, the electricity shortfall has increased to 6,500 MW mostly due to the less supply of RLNG to powerhouses. As a result, people were left to left to huge load shedding of up to 20 hours in KP, interior Sindh and Balochistan at a time when the mercury remained in the range of 41 to 46-degree centigrade. Meanwhile, the government has confirmed supply shortfalls in the system due to technical reasons despite surplus generation capacity. Additionally, the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has taken notice of the excessive load shedding and has sought an explanation from power distribution companies (Discos), including K-Electric. (“Nepra seeks explanation from power firms over loadshedding,” Dawn, 10 June 2021) (“6,500 MW power shortfall leads to loadshedding,” The News International, 10 June 2021)

PROVINCES
Lawyers move Peshawar HC against increasing landmine explosions
On 10 June, Dawn reported that five lawyers filed a petition with the Peshawar High Court regarding the frequent cases of landmine explosions in areas of erstwhile FATA, particularly South Waziristan. The petitioners have also requested a directive from the PHC to the federal and provincial government to demine the area and also provide compensation to the victims’ families. The petitioners also called for a directive to be issued to the police to register landmine cases in their daily diaries to keep in check alleged discrimination against former FATA residents. (“PHC moved against landmine blasts in tribal districts,” Dawn, 10 June 2021)

US withdrawal may affect polio drive, says Sindh Health Minister
On 9 June, the Sindh Health Minister raised concerns that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan may pose a problem to Pakistan’s polio drive as the withdrawal may lead to a migrant influx. The Minister was speaking to a delegation including representatives from the Polio Oversight Board of Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO and Rotary International. He outlined that there had been no new case of polio in 11 months and therefore, regional changes and a possible migrant movement would be a challenge to the local authorities. (“‘US withdrawal may result in greater polio challenge’,” Dawn, 10 June 2021)

ECONOMY
Finance Minister to release the Economic Survey today
On 10 June, Minister for Finance and Revenues Shaukat Tarin is scheduled to launch the Economic Survey for 2020-21. However, the survey will not mention the latest official poverty and unemployment figures. The survey will highlight the salient features of economic performance in the outgoing fiscal year. According to The News International, “It is going to claim that total debt and liabilities (TDL) stood at Rs45 trillion by end-March 2021 compared to Rs44.6 trillion at end-June 2020. This implies a 2 percent growth in 9 months… Within external sources, multilateral and bilateral sources were the main contributors. Total debt and liabilities stood at 95.3 percent of GDP at the end of third quarter of 2020-21 as against 103 percent of GDP in the comparable period last year. So total debt and liabilities decreased by almost 8 percent in one year.” (“No official poverty, unemployment figures included: Shaukat Tarin unveils Economic Survey today,” The News International, 10 June 2021)

PAKISTAN’S GENDER DEBATE
Most perpetrators can slip through the many cracks in the country’s judicial system, says editorial
An editorial in Dawn critical of the recent acid attack in Lahore says that although the frequency of such attacks has reduced to some amount, they occur often enough, mainly because the state does not have clear laws to punish the perpetrators. It adds that it is also easier to carry out since corrosive substances are easily available for sale and the attack itself does not require a lot of force. Additionally, the editorial says that the law must be passed and the authorities must also strictly regulate the sale of corrosive substances as the delay is incomprehensible as most perpetrators are able to slip through the many cracks in the country’s judicial system. (“Acid attack,” Dawn, 10 June 2021)

EXTERNAL
Pakistan, Canada to work together to fight Islamophobia: FO
On 9 June, Foreign Minister Qureshi held a telephonic conversation with his Canadian counterpart over the murder of a Pakistani-origin family in Ontario. Dawn quoted Qureshi saying, “The Islamophobic attack is a matter of serious concern and has caused anguish among the Muslims worldwide.” With this, he urged the international community to form a resolve against Islamophobia. Later, the Foreign Office statement said, “The two foreign ministers agreed to work together on countering Islamophobia through coordinated efforts at various international fora and agreed to instruct their countries’ permanent representatives in New York to work together in this regard.” ("FM asks world for urgent steps to curb Islamophobia," Dawn, 10 June 2021)

USS Monterey arrives at Karachi port
On 9 June, The News International reported that the US guided-missile cruiser USS Monterey (CG 61) had arrived at the Karachi port on 8 June for a two-day visit. The US Embassy Chargé d’affaires said, “The military-to-military ties between the United States and Pakistan are strong and enduring. Through staff exchanges and joint exercises, we are working together to protect the world’s most important shipping lanes, combat piracy, and counter-terrorism. Together, we can help ensure a more peaceful, stable, and prosperous South Asia.” Similarly, the Monterey Captain stressed that it is important for Pakistan and the US “to work together with regional and coalition partners” and reinforce their “mutual commitment to maritime security and stability.” ("US guided-missile cruiser USS Monterey comes to Karachi port," The News International, 9 June 2021)

ON PAKISTAN-OCCUPIED KASHMIR
General elections to be held on 25 July
On 9 June, the Chief Election Commissioner announced that Legislative Assembly elections for "AJK" will be held on 25 July. The Express Tribune reported that there is an addition of four new seats; therefore, "general elections would be held in 33 constituencies located within the limits of AJK and for 12 seats of Jammu and Kashmir refugees settled in Pakistan." Filing of nominations will close on 21 June. ("AJK general elections to be held on July 25," The Express Tribune, 10 June 2021)

In Focus

On 8 June, an official at the Pakistan railways said that the death toll from the Ghotki train accident had reached 65 with more than 100 injured. The scale of the accident sparked criticism about the inefficiency of the Railways and the problems plaguing the sector. An increased frequency in accidents of similar scale has brought forth the need to revamp the Railways. However, a brief background highlights that the problems are deep rooted and an overhaul is not easy. 

First, the insufficient budgetary allocation. For the fiscal year 2020-21, the federal government has allocated Rs124 billion for the Pakistan Railways showing an increase of around 8 per cent against Rs 113 billion budgeted for 2019-20. However, despite the increase in the budget, the Railways faced financial crunch due to increase in pension, expenses, fuel oil and increase in per unit rate of electricity. In February 2021, Minister of Railways Azam Khan Swati stated that the Pakistan Railways had suffered accumulated losses of Rs 1.2 trillion in the last 50 years. He said, “The company has incurred 90 per cent of these losses in last two decades alone,” adding, “the average loss is between Rs35-40 billion a year.” Further, he mentioned that the government planned to revive the collapsing organisation sooner than later. 

Meanwhile, the PTI administration has discussed reforms for the Pakistan Railways, the KCR project and Railways Green Initiative. However, its larger strategy for the railway’s revival is not clear as it chooses to solely depend on China, hoping that the investment of USD 6.8 billion on the upgrade of the Main Line-1 (ML-1) connecting Peshawar with Karachi would resuscitate the dying company.

Second, the corruption and nepotism in the Pakistan Railways. Accounts of a retired employee of the Pakistan Railways reflect that the sector has been plagued with “decades of political interference.” This brings forth the question of transparency; for example, a special report by The News International outlines that various governments, over the years, have employed “their supporters in the department regardless of whether they were qualified or not.” Therefore, the government’s efforts to recruit new staff usually garners apprehensions on whether the sector “has the right person for the right job or is there mismanagement because of unjust recruitments.” Apart from new recruitment, politics also influences placements and transfers of the employees thereby reducing departmental posts to “gifts in politics and bureaucracy.”

Third, mismanagement of human resources. There are debates on whether the Pakistan Railways staff is overburdened or overstaffed. The above mentioned study states that since several trains were suspended from operations due to lack of funds or fuel, the employees “sit at home and receive salaries illegitimately.” In 2018, the Supreme Court had ordered an audit of the Pakistan Railways to study the reasons behind the near-collapse of the department. The report of the same mentioned that the number of employees exceeded the required strength in certain grades. This paved the way for the argument that the Railways are not overstaffed, but rather mismanaged wherein departments which need personnel are running short while there is an abundant supply of staff elsewhere. This, therefore, points out to a mismanagement of human resources. 

Fourth, the lack of technological investment in the Railway sector has resulted in the deterioration of infrastructure and failure to expand or improve the railways' network. Its ageing assets continues to be a critical factor causing the poor performance of the Pakistan Railways.

However, efforts to convert the Pakistan Railways into a profitable entity have been introduced and some gains have been recorded. But, for now, the problems outweigh the efforts. It may be left to the upcoming budget to see if there is any strategy for complete revival and revamp of the Pakistan Railways.

In Brief
INTERNAL
NA committee passes bill regarding electoral reforms despite warnings from opposition 
On 8 June, a National Assembly standing committee cleared a bill which provides for amending several clauses of the Elections Act, 2017. However the bill was cleared amid severe opposition as the proposed reforms deal with voting rights for overseas Pakistanis, nomination fees for candidates, open ballots for the Senate elections and so on. Therefore, the opposition had maintained that the proposed reforms were sensitive and warned the committee to not pass the bill. (“NA panel clears bill to amend Elections Act,” Dawn, 9 June 2021)

Had no intentions to defame army, says Hamid Mir 
On 8 June, a joint statement from Hamid Mir, the Rawalpindi Islamabad Union of Journalists (RIUJ) and the National Press Club said that Mir had no intentions to defame the army and kept the army in high regard. Mir had been taken off air by Geo News following a speech at a protest site on 28 May. In his apology, he claimed that he got carried away after listening to other speakers. (Kalbe Ali, “Hamid Mir offers apology, says he didn’t want to defame army,” Dawn, 9 June 2021)

Differences emerge among PTI and PML-Q
On 8 June, The Express Tribune reported that the PML-Q will stop supporting the PTI government until the former’s demands are met. This development comes after Foreign Minister Qureshi (PTI) and the Housing Minister Tariq Cheema (PML-Q) were engaged in a war of words. Qureshi questioned the absence of PML-Q members in the assembly session held  on 7 June. When Imran raised the issue, Cheema reportedly asked “how could his party become part of the government’s business in the assembly when its demands were not being accepted.” Further, Cheema said the party would present its demands to Imran in a separate meeting. (“PML-Q to not back PTI in assembly until ‘demands met',” The Express Tribune, 8 June 2021)

PROVINCES 
Balochistan, Sindh may experience worse drought-like situation, says PMD 
On 8 June, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said that parts of Balochistan and Sindh are likely to experience worsening drought-like conditions. The PDM reasoned that between October 2020 and May 2021, Balochistan had received 59.5 per cent below usual rainfall; similarly, Sindh received  64.5 per cent less rainfall. This was worse than the national average wherein Pakistan received 36.1 per cent below average rainfall. Therefore, the PMD warned, “Drought conditions may further affect the agriculture and livestock. So, It is advised to all stakeholders to take pre-emptive measures for disaster prone districts." ("Drought conditions may worsen in Balochistan, Sindh," The Express Tribune, 9 June 2021)

ECONOMY
Private sector borrowing increased to Rs489.5 billion in 11MFY21
On 8 June, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) stated that the private sector credit offtake increased to Rs489.5 billion, a 70 per cent jump during July-May 2020-21. This increase reflects higher participation by the private sector to accelerate the economic growth rate. Further, the Bank believes that a growth rate of 3.94 per cent in FY21 against its own earlier estimate of three per cent can be achieved. (“Private sector borrowing jumps by 70pc in 11MFY21,” Dawn, 9 June 2021)

EXTERNAL
Govt officials confirm CIA director’s visit to Islamabad
On 9 June, Dawn reported that government officials have privately begun confirming the CIA Director William Burns visit to Islamabad. The report says the officials suggested that Burns was firmly told that Pakistan would not host the spy agency’s drone bases on its territory, rather suggested to have asked the Americans to hand over the drones to them for carrying out the strikes against terrorist targets. (“CIA chief told drone bases won’t be hosted,” Dawn, 9 June 2021)

Pakistan condemns the killing of Muslim family in Canada, terms it as a ‘terrorism incident’
On 8 June, Pakistan condemned the killing of four Muslim family members of Pakistani origin in Canada, labelling it as a ‘terrorism incident’ and an ‘Islamophobic attack.’ PM Imran Khan describing the attack as ‘an act of terrorism’ said, “Saddened to learn of the killing of a Muslim Pakistani-origin Canadian family in London, Ontario. This condemnable act of terrorism reveals the growing Islamophobia in Western countries. Islamophobia needs to be countered holistically by the international community.” (“Pakistan calls murder of Muslim family in Canada ‘terrorism’,” Dawn, 9 June 2021)

COAS meets with Commander of Azerbaijan Naval Forces
On 8 June, COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa met with Commander of Azerbaijan Naval Forces Rear Admiral Subhan Bakirov to discussed matters of mutual interest. According to the ISPR, “During the meeting, matters of mutual interest including defence, training, security cooperation between both countries, and overall regional security situation were discussed,” adding, “Both sides reaffirmed their determination to work together for enhancing diplomatic and security cooperation in various fields.” (“Azerbaijan lauds Pakistan’s efforts for regional peace,” The Express Tribune, 9 June 2021)

ON AFGHANISTAN
Opinion outlines fallouts of power vacuum in Afghanistan
An opinion in Dawn outlines the power vacuum in Afghanistan in light of the troop withdrawal and says that it “has encouraged the Afghan Taliban to accelerate their military offensive.” The author says the growing violence, not only pushes Afghanistan to the brink of a civil war, but has also worsened Pakistan’s predicament. He highlights the UN report which brought to light the links between Taliban and other terror groups like al Qaeda. He says, “More disturbing for Pakistan is the report of splinter TTP groups based across the border in Afghanistan being reunited…” and this has started to reflect in areas like North Waziristan. He also talks about the diplomatic differences between Kabul and Islamabad and opines that such acts should be avoided. Lastly, he outlines the talks about US access to Pakistani bases and says “provision of any such facility even with conditions attached would pull Pakistan into a deeper quandary.” Therefore, he warns of repercussions more severe than that of the past and says PAkistan must tread carefully. (Zahid Hussain, “Pakistan’s Afghan predicament,” Dawn, 9 June 2021)

ON CPEC
Govt allocates Rs 87 billion for CPEC projects in upcoming budget
On 9 June, The News International reported that the Planning Minister had announced an allocation of Rs 87 billion for CPEC projects under the Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) in the upcoming budget. The breakdown of the amounts is as follows:  Rs 42 billion for Western Alignment, Rs 6.2 billion for Mainline (ML-1), Rs 7 billion for basic utilities and infrastructure in the SEZs at Rashakai, Dhabeji, Faisalabad and Bostan and so on. The News International explains that this allocation has dismissed speculations of slowing down of CPEC projects. (Mehtab Haider, “Rs 87 bn allocated for CPEC projects in next budget,” The News International, 9 June 2021)

ON COVID-19
Covid positivity rate drops to 2.94 per cent
On 8 June, the NCOC reported that the COVID-19 positivity rate falling below three per cent for the first time in almost four months as it stood at 2.94 per cent across the country. Meanwhile, Planning Minister Asad Umar announced the approval for the allocation of USD 1 billion for vaccine procurement. Further, he said that the National Economic Council will hold regular meetings to monitor federal, provincial development plans. (“Govt allocates $1bn for vaccine procurement,” Dawn, 9 June 2021) (“Covid positivity rate drops to 2.94% first time in four months,” The Express Tribune, 9 June 2021)

An opinion in Dawn stated that the growing violence in Afghanistan has serious consequences for the region it will be hard for Islamabad to escape the fallout. It warns that Pakistan needs to tread a very cautious path with the threat of Afghan civil war extended to its own territory.

An editorial in Dawn on controlling polio says the authorities need to double down and boost awareness campaigns and improve the management of the polio-related infrastructure so that this disease can be defeated. Similarly, an editorial in The News International says that there is a need for an enhanced media campaign to promote and support the anti-polio drive across the country.

In focus

Beyond the CPEC: Expanding Chinese footprints in Pakistan

Review of a Carnegie report “The Local Roots of Chinese Engagement in Pakistan"

D. Suba Chandran

An opinion in Dawn argues that Gender-Based Violence (GBV) is the product of a bigoted society, stating that policemen have a gendered view of GBV. It says that although, consistent efforts at gender sensitisation through curriculum and training has enabled police to recognise the problem, more focused approach is needed to address the underlying cognitive dissonance in police practices.

An editorial in Dawn on the opposition demanding the government take parliament into confidence on the situation in Afghanistan argues that the policy on Afghanistan needs to be well-deliberated and bipartisan in nature. It says that like how the government has taken steps in engaging all ethnic groups in Afghanistan as well as regional countries, the same should be followed towards parliament.

In focus

Shehbaz Sharif’s return, Bilawal Bhutto’s silence and the PDM’s future
For the PML-N, the road to Islamabad is through Lahore. Not through London 

D. Suba Chandran

Maleeha Lodhi in an opinion in Dawn states that against the backdrop of intensified fighting, lack of movement on a political settlement and the US troop withdrawal the spectre that looms in Afghanistan is of chaos and more strife and anarchy. She argues this does not bode well for Pakistan, however, the question now is whether anything can be done to avert a 1989 or 1992 type scenario in Afghanistan.

An editorial in The News International critical of the critical of the severity of food insecurity in the country gives two recommendations to the government. First, it must reduce inflation, second, it should strive to increase livelihood opportunities, and most of all it must – in the short term – increase the number of beneficiaries of cash transfers.

‘Strategic depth’ policy changed to ensure friendly government in Afghanistan: PM
Says they are trying their best for a political settlement before the Americans leave

On 6 June, The Express Tribune reported that PM Imran Khan in an interview with Reuters said that the ruling PTI had changed Pakistan's decades-long policy of pushing for "strategic depth" in Afghanistan to ensure that there was a friendly government there. He said, "Any Afghan government chosen by the people is who Pakistan should deal with," Further, he said that Pakistan "should not try to do any manipulation in Afghanistan" adding that a lot depended on US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, with Pakistan's and Afghanistan's help, to carve out a settlement to avoid more bloodshed.

Further, he said, “Pakistan is pushing for a political settlement in Afghanistan before foreign troops leave later this year, to reduce the risk of civil war in its western neighbour,” adding, "There is a lot of fear right now in Pakistan and I assure you that we are trying our level best that there is some sort of political settlement before the Americans leave." (“‘Strategic depth’ policy changed for Afghan peace: PM,” The Express Tribune, 6 June 2021)

In Brief
INTERNAL
Sindh Bar Council adopts resolution against Mir’s removal from talkshow
On 4 June, the Sindh Bar Council adopted a resolution calling on the Chief justice of Pakistan to take suo motu cognisance of the removal of Hamid Mir from his talk show on Geo News. The resolution also addressed the Information Ministry calling for restoration of the talk show. Further, the resolution termed the recent attack on Asad Toor “a blatant attack not only on the freedom and independence of media but also on democracy.” Therefore, the resolution asked the Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (Pemra) to look into the grievances of media personnel and prove its credibility as an autonomous body and show it is not a “tool in the hands of the federal government.” (Nasir Iqbal, “SBC urges CJP to take notice of Mir’s removal from show,” Dawn, 5 June 2021)

Key Senate committees to be headed by government 
On 5 June, The Express Tribune reported that the government had secured chairmanship of key Senate committees, including those on  law and justice, interior and human rights. The news report explains that the opposition “could have given a tough time to the government” in the Senate had they secured the chairman positions of these committees. However, the opposition parties failed to reach a consensus due to “internal differences among themselves or backchannel understanding.” (“Govt bags chair of key Senate bodies,” The Express Tribune, 5 June 2021)

IHC directs officials to reply on petition against ordinances
On 4 June, the Islamabad High Court sought replies from several federal government bodies and officials on the petition against the presidential ordinance on EVMs and the provision for overseas Pakistanis to vote. The petition was filed by an MNA from the PML-N. The IHC has also asked the Attorney General for assistance on the issue. The counsel for the PML-N MNA argued that ordinances “can only be issued if there is no session of parliament and there is an emergency” and claimed that the petitioners had not challenged other ordinances issued on emergency. However, the counsel also maintained that issuance of ordinances has always been a problem and is not characteristic of the current government alone. (Saqib Bashir, “IHC seeks replies on petition against presidential ordinance,” The Express Tribune, 5 June 2021)

PROVINCES
MPA submits resolution demanding protection of journalists
On 5 June, MPA Jugnoo Mohsin submitted a resolution to the Punjab Assembly “condemning attacks on journalists and rights activists” in Pakistan. She has requested the Assembly Chair to table the resolution. Dawn quotes her saying, “What is happening to journalists and rights activists here is nothing new. We have fought long and hard for whatever little freedom we enjoy.” Further, she took on the PTI and said, “Tomorrow you may be in opposition and you too will need a free press then. You must stand for freedom of expression today to guard your own rights, which you may have to exercise tomorrow.” (“Resolution in Punjab Aseembly calls out attacks on journalists,” Dawn, 5 June 2021)

Imran assures support to MQM in resolving Sindh problems
On 4 June, Imran Khan met with a delegation of the MQM party and assured them of the federal government’s support to address the problems in Sindh. The MQM delegation presented five demands. First, an allocation of funds in the upcoming budget for the new census in upcoming federal budget; second, funds for enhancing projects under the Karachi Development Package; third, a probe into “issuance of fake domiciles” of Karachi, Hyderabad and Mirpurkhas; fourth, early functioning of Hyderabad University; fifth, to do away with the bandits’ sway and corruption in Sindh. The Minister for Information Technology told Dawn that issues regarding the MQM-PTI alliance were also discussed during the meeting wherein MQM said that the party was facing the brunt of an “anti-PTI government” in Sindh that “does not pay heed to basic civic problems of Karachi and other areas dominated by the MQM and the PTI.” (Syed Irfan Raza, “PM assures MQM of support to solve Sindh problems,” Dawn, 5 June 2021)

ECONOMY
Data shows double-digit growth in exports of 13 sectors
On 4 June, data from the Ministry of Commerce reflected that 13 sectors recorded a double-digit growth in 11 months of FY21. This includes value-added textiles and the growth has been attributed to a low-base due to COVID-19 lockdown and cancellation by international buyers. Export of home textile products recorded a 27 per cent growth from the corresponding period in FY20. Other sectors that witnessed a growth include value-added leather and pharmaceutical products, surgical instruments and so on. (Mubarak Zeb Khan, “13 sectors’ exports post double-digit growth,” Dawn, 5 June 2021) 

Government pays first installment to 20 IPPs
On 4 June, the federal government paid the first installment of Rs 89.2 billion to 20 independent power producers (IPPs). As per the agreement signed with 46 IPPs, the government committed to a total payment of Rs 403 billion. To the above-mentioned 20 IPPs, the total payable stands at Rs 255 billion and the remaining amount is expected to be paid within six months. The payments were scheduled to be completed in March but got delayed as the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) had not completed its examination of the deal. (“Govt pays Rs89bn to 20 IPPs as first instalment,” Dawn, 5 June 2021)

Roshan Digital Account records USD 1.25 million inflows
On 4 June, the State Bank of Pakistan said that the Roshan Digital Account had recorded a total inflow of USD 1.25 billion. The inflow in May alone stood at USD 250 million and from September 2020 to April 2021, RDA had collected USD one million. Dawn reports that the financial sector estimates an inflow of USD one billion in the coming four months if the current pace remains steady. (Shahid Iqbal, “RDA inflows increase to $1.25bn,” Dawn, 5 June 2021)

PAKISTAN’S WORLD VIEW
Editorial outlines fallouts of the end of Netanyahu’s tenure
An editorial In The Express Tribune outlines that the possibility of Naftali Bennett becoming the next Prime Minister of Israel is not much to rejoice about, despite his coalition having an Arab party (Raam). The editorial reasons that Naftali has not exclusively dismissed his opposition to the two-state solution and had also appreciated Raam for abstaining from nationalistic demands. On the other hand, it outlines that Netanyahu reflected his “far-right” side when he called on other right-wing parliamentarians to reject Naftali’s “left-wing” politics. It warns that “the eight-party opposition coalition includes a combination of all kinds of parties, including former Netanyahu allies, united only by their spite for the corruption-scandal plagued PM.” (“Israel elections,” The Express Tribune, 5 June 2021)

ON INDIA
India-Israel relationship is a marriage of convenience, says editorial
An editorial in Dawn writes on India’s abstention from voting for a probe of Israel's actions against Palestinians, in the UNHRC. The editorial opines that this is not a new trend and says that currently, the “Hindutva banner India is a firm ally of Israel.” It terms India-Israel relationship as a “natural pairing” opining that “right-wing governments in both states have applied similar brutal methods in occupied Palestine and held Kashmir.” The editorial calls the India-Israel relationship as a “marriage of convenience.” It says that “people of conscience...will continue to raise a voice for the Palestinians” and that “the plight of the Kashmiris will also not be forgotten.” (“India’s abstention,” Dawn, 5 June 2021)

FO calls investigation into uranium seizure in India 
On 4 June, the Foreign Office spokesman called on India to investigate the “illicit uranium possession and sales.” Dawn quotes from the statement, “Pakistan reiterates its call for thorough investigation into such incidents and measures for strengthening the security of nuclear materials to prevent their diversion.” The spokesman said that these incidents reflect “lax controls, poor regulatory and enforcement mechanisms, as well as possible existence of a black market for nuclear materials inside India.” (“Pakistan seeks probe into illegal uranium sale in India,” Dawn, 5 June 2021)

Tarin blames IMF for high inflation
Says lender put a gun to Pakistan's head to set the interest rate at 13.25 per cent

On 3 June, Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin claimed that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had forced Pakistan to increase interest rates and electricity prices that doubled the cost of debt servicing and pushed inflation upward. He claimed, “The IMF put a gun to our head to set the interest rate at 13.25%, which increased the debt servicing,” adding, “Debt servicing increased because of the increase in interest rates.” Further, he said, “The high interest rate added Rs1.5 trillion into the annual debt cost and that was a gift from the PML-N.” However, Tarin did not mention the foreign funds, which is the main cause for setting the interest rates high. (“PTI government blames IMF for high inflation,” The Express Tribune, 4 June 2021)

In Brief
INTERNAL
Fazlur Rehman says PPP damaged democracy; reiterates mass resignation option
On 3 June, PDM chief Fazlur Rehman said that the PPP had damaged Pakistan’s democracy by leaving the alliance and said the party could rejoin if it admits its mistake. He termed the PDM the voice of the masses and conveyed that those parties struggling without the alliance were wasting their energies. With this, he reiterated the need for mass resignations by opposition lawmakers in all assemblies. The News International quoted him saying, “I think if we do not resign collectively, the government will extend its term...Running away from the option of resignations is tantamount to giving more time to the present government.” (“PPP damaged democracy by leaving PDM, says Fazl,” The News International, 4 June 2021) (“'PTI will extend its term if we run away from mass resignations',” The News International, 3 June 2021)

PIA incurs Rs 7.9 billion loss due to suspension of flights
On 3 June, the Aviation Minister informed the Senate that since June 2020, Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) had incurred a loss of Rs 7.9 billion following the suspension of flights due the fake pilots’ licenses issue. Following the revelation on fake licenses,  Italy, Spain, Norway, Denmark, the United Kingdom and France had suspended PIA flights; the ban is expected to be lifted in November after an audit by the International Civil Aviation Organization. (Shabbir Hussain, “Flight ban caused Rs7.9b loss, Senate told,” The Express Tribune, 4 June 2021)

Textbook association raises concern over review fees and MUB objections
On 4 June, the Textbook Publishers Association (TPA) called for issuance of a no objection certificate and withdrawal of fees for publishing books in line with the Single National Curriculum. The TPA urged the government to direct the Punjab Curriculum and Textbook Board (PCTB) to look into the same. The TPA president outlined that the fee for external review of the textbooks by the Mutahidda Ulema Board (MUB) would add to the cost. Further, the TPA would have to submit copies and pay review fees to obtain the above mentioned certificates. Dawn reports that the TPA president “said if implemented that way, the introduction of SNC would further strengthen the class-based education system, instead of eradicating it.” Further, he referred to MUB concerns over mathematical concepts like “interest,” and objections to biological diagrams; he wondered how children would be taught if these directives were put to effect. (“Single national curriculum: Publishers object to textbook review fee, Ulema’s role,” Dawn, 4 June 2021)

PROVINCES
Sindh CTD releases 9th edition of Red Book 
On 3 June, Sindh’s provincial Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) issued the 9th edition of the “Red Book” four years after the 8th edition was published. The Red Book includes the names of terrorists wanted by the federal as well as the Sindh government. The  CTD Sindh chief said that the latest edition has 93 new names, including those linked with ISIS and some from the nationalist groups engaged in anti-state activities. On the other hand, 10 terrorists named in the 8th edition “have been arrested, and seven killed – five in Pakistan and one each in Afghanistan and Syria.” (“CTD issues 9th edition of Red Book with names of 93 new terrorists,” The News International, 4 June 2021)

Three children killed, three injured in hand grenade blast
On 3 June, three children were killed and three more injured in Quetta due to the detonation of a hand grenade they had mistaken for a toy. According to the provincial government spokesperson, the children found the hand grenade in a graveyard. Two of the injure children are in a serious condition. (“Three children killed while playing with hand grenade in Quetta,” The News International, 4 June 2021)

ENERGY
Paper estimates investments required for generation capacity in 2030
On 4 June, Dawn referred to a paper, “Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP), 2030” which estimates that the net present value of investment to manage Pakistan’s generation infrastructure’s construction and operations by 2030 would range between USD 31.6 billion and USD 32.2bn. Dawn quotes from the paper, “The base case results show that to meet a demand of 34,377MW by 2030, a generation capacity of 53,315MW is proposed, which includes utilisation of existing generation facilities, consideration of committed power plants and optimisation of candidate power plants.” Further, it estimates that the energy mix by 2030 would include 1,964MW of solar energy, 3,795MW of wind and 749MW of bagasse-based plants. The paper has been prepared by the National Transmission and Dispatch Company. (“Generation capacity of 57,204MW needed by 2030, says paper,” Dawn, 4 June 2021)

EXTERNAL
Pakistan-Egypt air defence exercises concludes in Cairo
On 4 June, ISPR statement said that the two-week long Pakistan-Egypt Joint Air Defence Exercise 'Sky Guards-1' had concluded in Cairo. This was the first of its kind exercise and Pakistan Army Air Defence, Pakistan Air Force Air Defence and Egyptian Air Defence Forces participated. The Express Tribune quoted from the ISPR, “The two weeks long exercise was focused on the integration, synchronization, information gathering, interoperability and decision making of committing the air defence assets in a battle to offer an aggressive and prompt response to hostile air threat.” (“Pakistan-Egypt joint air defence exercise 'Sky Guards-1' concludes,” The Express Tribune, 4 June 2021)

ON PAKISTAN-OCCUPIED KASHMIR
Will reverse trend of Islamabad-approved parties winning in “AJK,” says minister
On 3 June, a senior minister of “AJK” criticised the PTI and its tactics against the PML-N government in “AJK.” The minister was quoted as saying, “Earlier PTI tried in vain to get the polls postponed in the name of Covid-19 pandemic and now they want to achieve this target by provoking emotions and creating law and order situation across the state.” He vowed that the trend of victories of parties in “AJK,” approved by the federal government, will be reversed in 2021. He added, “Unlike PTI, we enjoy unity, harmony, and unflinching commitment to our leadership. We have popular and influential candidates in all constituencies who will win elections on the basis of the performance of the PML-N government.” (“PTI trying to ignite tensions to postpone elections: AJK minister,” The Express Tribune, 4 June 2021)

Trade deficit increases by 134 per cent
Exponential growth in imports overshadows growth in export proceeds

On 2 June, data according to the Ministry of Commerce showed that the merchandise trade deficit in May surged by 134 per cent from what it was in 2020. The surge was mainly caused by exponential growth in imports with comparative slow growth in export proceeds. According to the ministry, the monthly deficit reached USD 3.432 billion in May 2021 from USD 1.467 billion a year ago raising fear it will create a problem for the government in controlling external accounts. Meanwhile, the trade gap has been widening since December 2020. (“Trade deficit surges by 134pc,” Dawn, 3 June 2021)

In Brief
INTERNAL
Waqf property bill draws criticism on religious ground
On 2 June, the NA Standing Committee on Religious Affairs and Interfaith Harmony sought a briefing on the Islamabad Capital Territory Waqf Properties Bill, 2020 which had recently been approved in compliance with FATF conditions. The Committee raised concerns that some provisions of the bill are not in line with the Quran and Sunnah. The Committee chair said that if a person declares their property as a trust, then its ownership is with Allah. He opined that laws under the Shariah cannot be catered to suit the FATF and said, “Therefore, no deputy commissioner or any other officer is authorised to change the ownership of that property.” (Rizwan Ghalzai, “Religious objection raised on Waqf properties bill,” The Express Tribune, 3 June 2021)

Government entangles political rivals through NAB, says SC
On 2 June, the Supreme Court observed that the National Accountability Bureau dealt with the accused depending on their position in the government wherein the anti-graft body relentlessly pursued the minor officials. The SC was hearing a post-arrest bail plea of a senior PPP leader who the NAB had accused of transferring an amnesty plot to build other properties under benamis; he was arrested in 2019. The judges observed discrepancies in the NAB disclosures and said that the government used the NAB to entangle political rivals. The hearing will continue on 3 June (today). (“NAB doesn’t pursue the powerful: SC,” i, 3 June 2021) 

FIA to investigate two cases against Asad Toor. 
On 2 June, the Islamabad High Court allowed the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) to probe into a case against journalist Asad Toor. The IHC was hearing two cases against Asad related to defamation and the content on his social media. The FIA claimed that it had not proceeded with the investigation earlier because the Court had suspended its notice. The judge clarified that the Court had suspended the notice because formalities were not followed before issuing it. The hearing has been adjourned for 30 June. (Malik Asad, “FIA allowed to investigate complaint against journalist,” Dawn, 3 June 2021)

Tendency to speak the heart out not permissible to judges, says SC judge
On 3 June, the Supreme Court concluded hearing of former IHC Judge Shaukat Aziz Siddiqui’s appeal. Following his speech at a bar association in 2018, he had been dropped from the high judicial office on grounds of “displaying conduct unbecoming of a judge.” In the speech, he outlined that certain officials, particularly from the ISI, were manipulating high court benches and also came down on the judiciary for allegedly undermining Pakistan’s democratic values. During the hearing, Justice Bandial opined that judges cannot speak their hearts out as they have a “conscience to serve the cause of the people, justice and the cause of the Constitution day in and day out.” Dawn reports that, “Justice Bandial while referring to the speech of Justice Shaukat regretted that the speech, though emotional, because of the agony the judge endured, carried a negative opinion of the judiciary and yet he was addressing the same judiciary to reclaim his position.” (Nasir Iqbal, “Judges’ freedom of speech different from that of citizens: SC judge,” Dawn, 3 June 2021)

PROVINCES
CM warns of suspending salaries if government employees not vaccinated
On 3 June, the Sindh Chief Minister threatened to suspend salaries of provincial government officials from July if they fail to get vaccinated. The Express Tribune reported that instructions for the same were passed on to the finance department. The CM has reportedly called for setting up 300 basic health units (BHUs) vaccination centres aiming to inoculate 30,000 per day. Similarly, mobile vaccination units have been instructed to target 60,000 inoculations and private centres 10,000. (Hafeez Tunio, “Sindh govt to suspend salaries of officials not inoculated against Covid-19,” The Express Tribune, 3 June 2021)

Lawmakers concerned over children’s death in landmine blasts
On 2 June, opposition members in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly raised concerns over the “killing and maiming of children in landmine explosions in North and South Waziristan” on 1 June. A JUI-F lawmaker presented the issue citing that three children were killed and two injured in South Waziristan when a toy bomb detonated and said that, in total, nearly 300 children were victims of landmine blasts in the district. He called on the relevant authorities to look into the issue. (Mohammad Ashfaq, “Lawmakers voice concern about killing of children in Waziristan landmine blasts,” Dawn, 3 June 2021)

PAKISTAN’S GENDER DEBATE
Editorial calls for gender balance in judiciary
An editorial in The Express Tribune highlights that Pakistan is the only country in the region “which has not appointed a woman as a judge of the Supreme Court” and has less than 10 female judges in the high courts. The editorial refers to a report by the Human Rights of Commission of Pakistan which outlines that only 5.3 per cent of the judges in high courts are women and this figure is the lowest in South Asia. The editorial opines that it is the lack of favourable workspace for women that hinders their growth in the judiciary. It observes that having female lawyers fight cases generally associated with women, like divorce, will boost confidence of the “weaker sex.” Therefore, it concludes that a greater gender balance in the judiciary will ensure women’s rights. (“Female judges,” The Express Tribune, 3 June 2021)

ON PAKISTAN-OCCUPIED KASHMIR
“AJK” Legislative Assembly elections to be held before 29 July
On 3 June, The News International reported that a senior official from the “Azad Jammu and Kashmir Election Commission (AJKEC)” said that elections to the Legislative Assembly will be conducted before July 29. The official said, “There is no constitutional provision for the deferral of the polls. Any such move will be unconstitutional.” He said he had not received any formal recommendations from the  National Command and Operations Centre (NCOC) which had called for the postponement of the same. He said, “I have unofficially got a copy from someone to read. But we can’t give our formal response unless we formally receive the communication.” (Tariq Butt, “Ignoring NCOC’s recommendation: AJK going ahead with holding elections before July 29,” The News International, 3 June 2021)

Irsa increases water share to Punjab, Sindh
Move comes after Irsa officials held a meeting with the Met Department

PROVINCES
On 2 June, The Express Tribune reported that the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has decided to increase Punjab and Sindh’s water share. With this, Punjab is expected to receive 106,000 cusecs and Sindh 115,000 cusecs. The move comes a day after Irsa had deliberated on reducing the water share. This was reversed after Irsa officials held a meeting with the Met Department wherein they were apprised that the water inflow from Tarbela and Chashma Barrage had increased. (Zafar Bhutta, “Sindh, Punjab water share further increased,” The Express Tribune, 2 June 2021)

In Brief
INTERNAL
IHC asks government to not appoint HEC chairman for now
On 1 June, the Islamabad High Court asked the government to refrain from appointing a chairman for the Higher Education Commission. The IHC was hearing a case against an HEC ordinance and the reappointment of Tariq Banuri as its chairman. The complainant’s counsel said, “This government is eliminating the autonomy of institutions.” Meanwhile, the case has been adjourned for 8 June. (Hasnaat Malik, “IHC restrains govt from appointing HEC chairman,” The Express Tribune, 2 June 2021)

PML-N members mull over Shehbaz’s proposal for grand dialogue
On 1 June, a PML-N insider told Dawn that several party members differed with Shehbaz Sharif’s idea to hold a “grand dialogue” with stakeholders, including the establishment. Senior leaders like  Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and Rana Sanaullah opined that the PML-N should go by Nawaz Sharif’s narrative and the latter also called on Maryam Nawaz to play an active role. The remarks came during an internal meeting. Previously, Shehbaz Sharif had proposed the grand dialogue during a TV interview. Dawn quoted Shehbaz saying that Nawaz would contribute “if there is a free, fair and transparent election, every institution operates within its respective domain, there is rule of law in the country and a roadmap is devised with the input of all stakeholders.” (Zulqernain Tahir, “PML-N leaders deliberate Shehbaz’s grand dialogue idea,” Dawn, 2 June 2021)

Opinion calls on political parties to do more to ensure democracy 
An opinion in The Express Tribune criticises the ongoing trend in politics in Pakistan. The author opines that the opposition is not promoting democracy as it solely appears to aim at destabilising the government. However, he also says that the government too has a hand in not letting the opposition play its role; he says, “the PTI government cannot absolve itself of conducting legislative business in a cavalier fashion.” Further, though he acknowledges that the economy has been resistant despite the pandemic, he says all political parties need to have a sustained effort to address the issue of poverty, hunger and other issues in the country. He is also critical of dynastic politics and says unless parties have internal democracies, “the grip of establishment will not lessen and democracy in Pakistan would be very fragile.” (Talat Masood, “From political waywardness to new pathways,” The Express Tribune, 2 June 2021)

Imran appreciates armed forces; Bajwa vows to ensure sustainable peace in Balochistan
On 1 June, an ISPR statement said that Imran Khan had appreciated the armed forces’ performance. He reportedly said that the army had produced “unmatched results” during adverse situations “and successfully deterred the nefarious designs of Pakistan’s enemies.” He was speaking at the Command and Staff College in Quetta. (“PM lauds military for producing ‘unmatched results’ against adversaries,” The Express Tribune, 2 June 2021) Meanwhile, the COAS said that the army “will make all possible efforts to achieve an enduring peace for sustainable socio-economic development of Balochistan” and reiterated that terrorists will not destabilise peace efforts. (“Terrorists won’t be allowed to destabilise peace efforts: Bajwa,” Dawn, 2 June 2021)

ON AFGHANISTAN
Pakistan concerned about a security vacuum in Afghanistan
On 2 June, Dawn reported that Pakistan is increasingly getting worried about a security vacuum in Afghanistan post the United States withdrawal with the prospects of reconciliation between warring Afghan groups become worse. Meanwhile, FM Shah Mahmood Qureshi while speaking to the Speaker of Afghanistan’s Wolesi Jirga Mir Rahman Rahmani urged the Afghan groups to “seize this historic opportunity and work out an inclusive, broad-based and comprehensive political settlement for durable peace and stability in Afghanistan and the region.” (“Islamabad worried about security vacuum in Afghanistan,” Dawn, 2 June 2021)

ECONOMY
SBP governor says Pakistan is on the pivot to growth 
On 2 June, The Express Tribune quoted the State Bank of Pakistan Governor as saying that the IMF programme was on the right track and “is in a stage of pivoting from stabilisation to growth.” He attributed stabilisation to achievements like the current account surplus, doubling of foreign exchange reserves and so on. On the pivot to growth, he said “That is the stage where we are and I think the 4% revised forecast of growth demonstrates that this policy (IMF programme) has been successful.” (“‘Economy pivoting towards growth’,” The Express Tribune, 2 June 2021)

EXTERNAL
Three markets being established near Iran border
On 1 June, the Adviser to Prime Minister on Commerce and Investment said that three markets are being set up along the border with Iran in Balochistan’s Gabd, Mund and Chedgi. This is part of an MoU signed between the two countries in April 2021. As per the agreement, six markets are to be set up in the border areas. The markets are expected to improve bilateral trade and expand economic opportunities for people in the area. (“Pakistan sets up three markets near Iran border,” The Express Tribune, 1 June 2021)

In Brief
INTERNAL
Police in Peshawar fire tear gas, baton charge govt teachers
On 31 May, the Peshawar police fired tear gas and baton-charged government teachers protesting university reforms in front of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly. According to the police, around eight of the protesting teachers were detained for blocking the road, among the detained was Peshawar University Teachers' Association (PUTA) President.  The demonstrators, who include university teachers from across the province as well as other government employees, have been demonstrating for the last five days. The head of the Federation of All Pakistan Universities Academic Staff Associations (FUAPASA) stated that protest would continue until the demands are met. Their demands include withdrawal of proposed reforms, including a reduction in allowances of university employees, ending free education for their children and establishment of a provincial chapter of the Higher Education Commission (HEC) under the 18th Amendment. (“Peshawar police fire tear gas, baton charge govt teachers protesting reduction in allowances,” Dawn, 1 June 2021)
 

Senior member of the PBC calls for meeting to discuss govt’s second review plea
On 31 May, Munir Ahmad Khan Kakar, a senior member of the Pakistan Bar Council (PBC) from Balochistan called for the convening of a meeting of the council to discuss the federal government’s move to file a curative second review petition in the Justice Qazi Faez Isa judgment. In a letter to PBC Vice Chairman, Kakar said that the government’s move and act to file the curative review petition to challenge the review judgement was based on ulterior motives, adding the government’s attempt was aimed at targeting and suppressing independence of the judiciary. Apart from suggesting the convening of a PBC meeting to consider the government’s intention to file the second review, he also called for the All Pakistan Lawyers Representative Convention as early as possible.  (“Member calls for PBC meeting to discuss govt’s second review plea,” Dawn, 1 June 2021)
 

KQJ observes black day against Fata merger
On 31 May, the Khyber Qaumi Jirga (KQJ), an anti-merger body, observed black day as they held a demonstration at Bab-i-Khyber against the integration of erstwhile Fata into the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. While addressing the demonstrators, the KQJ leader claimed that the merger was imposed on the tribal people without their consent and without fulfilling the constitutional obligation of convening a representative grand jirga of all the tribal elders from the seven tribal regions. The leader said that the merger had only further complicated the situation in tribal areas due to ambiguity about the powers and limitations of different government departments which resulted in chaos. Further, they demanded the immediate repeal of the 25th Constitutional Amendment, the revival of the jirga system and reforms in the Frontier Crimes Regulation. (“Khyber jirga observes black day against Fata merger,” Dawn, 1 June 2021)
 

Media association rejects new proposed ordinance 
On 31 May, the Association of Electronic Media Editors and News Directors (AEMEND) rejected the new proposed ordinance on media regulation. The AEMEND termed the ordinance, known as the Pakistan Media Development Authority (PMDA) ordinance, a draconian measure and said that it would take all necessary actions to challenge it. Further, it opined that the PMDA ordinance is the government’s attempt to pressurise and control the media. The News International reported that the AEMEND statement added that the PMDA “will not only hinder media freedom but will also provide a tool to the government to pressurise free media into submission.” (“AEMEND rejects PMDA ordinance,” The News International, 1 June 2021)

Shehbaz comes down on government for rising prices
On 31 May, Shehbaz Sharif accused the PTI government of being “insensitive” to the people and that it was “unaware” of the troubles faced by a common man. The Express Tribune quoted him saying, “The rulers continue to paint a positive picture of their economic performance whereas the people are not even capable to feed themselves twice a day.” He said that people were facing a shortage of flour, wheat, milk and other essentials and outlined the increasing prices of the same. Therefore, he opined that by displaying overestimated economic figures, the government had betrayed the people. (“Govt ‘insensitive’ to people’s plight, says Shehbaz,” The Express Tribune, 1 June 2021) 

Editorial calls for multidimensional solution to poverty
An editorial in Dawn cites rising suicides due to poverty, and says, “It is a matter of utter shame that there should be few forums to turn to for help in a country where such wretchedness and despair exist.” Highlighting the rising prices and the growing number of poor people, the editorial outlines that the government has not done much “despite all its talk of aiming to be a welfare state.” Therefore, it calls for introspection and a “holistic multidimensional programmes that address socioeconomic vulnerabilities rather than tackle poverty as a one-dimensional issue.” (“Cry for help,” Dawn, 1 June 2021)

PROVINCES
Imran condemns terrorist attacks in Quetta and Turbat
On 1 June, Imran Khan condemned terrorist attacks  in Quetta and Turbat wherein four Frontier Corp soldiers lost their lives and eight were injured on 31 May. He tweeted, “My prayers and condolences go to the martyrs families. We will continue our fight ag[ainst] these terrorists and will not allow them to sabotage peace and dev[elopment] in Balochistan.” The ISPR statement says that four or five terrorists were killed in Quetta; on the other hand, in Turbat terrorists targeted an FC vehicle. (“PM Imran strongly condemns Balochistan terrorist attacks,” The Express Tribune, 1 June 2021)

PPP to protest against water shortage
On 31 May, the PPP in Sindh decided to hold district-level protests from 3 June to 15 June, against water shortage in the province, the alleged injustice by the Indus River System Authority (IRSA). The PPP Sindh President said that the party would no longer remain silent over the Irsa’s and federal government’s decisions against Sindh. He alleged that the province was at a disadvantage due to deliberate policies. (“PPP to hold protests against water shortage,” The News International, 1 June 2021) 

ECONOMY
Revenue collection in May surpasses target by 7.8 per cent
On 31 May, provisional data from the  Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) showed that revenue collection stood at Rs 386 billion in May, thereby surpassing the target by 7.82 per cent. This is the third consecutive month where the collection has surpassed the target. The target for May was Rs 358 billion. Further, the May collection also surpassed the collection of Rs 229 billion in the corresponding period last financial year. (Mubarak Zeb Khan, “FBR surpasses May collection target by 8pc,” Dawn, 1 June 2021)

ON CPEC 
CPEC stresses on need for activities in Gwadar port and GFZ 
On 31 May, the CPEC Authority Chairman said that the Gwadar Port and Gwadar Free Zone (GFZ) are expected to generate around USD 10 billion worth of economic activities. He said that the China Port Holding Company had completed the Gwadar Port’s infrastructure construction and four berths are fully operational; now the task was to increase the port traffic. Meanwhile, the GFZ’s first phase has been completed and it has reportedly “created some 1,200 direct jobs, while 12,000 more persons were hired for building the support infrastructure.” (“Gwadar Port, Free Zone to generate $10bn activities yearly: Asim,” Dawn, 1 June 2021)

ON PAKISTAN-OCCUPIED KASHMIR
PPP rejects suggestion to postpone polls
On 31 May, the PPP rejected a suggestion by the PTI to postpone the election in “AJK.” The Sindh Education Minister from the PPP, alleged that the “AJK” people were being forced to join the PTI and that the NAB had become an “arm twisting tool” again. Dawn quoted him saying, “Any effort to postpone the elections clearly means that the PTI is weak in Azad Kashmir” and added that the “AJK” Constitution did not allow for postponement of elections. The development comes after the PML-N rejected the postponement. (Amir Wasim, “Opposition rejects move to delay AJK elections,” Dawn, 1 June 2021)

An opinion in Dawn argues that whatever “oppositioning” has to be done will take place on the floor of parliament and for this the PDM needs the PPP.

An opinion in Dawn on the electoral reforms stated that there is no proof that the PR system gives good governance. It argues that if Fafen wants a serious debate on PR, it must go beyond short press releases and produce a detailed policy paper with weighty proof to remove doubts that PR may not give fairer representation, let alone political stability or good governance.