PTI-backed independents gain ground in preliminary results

Daily Briefs

Photo : Dawn

09 February 2024, Friday| Vol 5, No.22

PTI-backed independents gain ground in preliminary results

Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) gave assurances that it would guarantee the prompt announcement of results without relying on the internet.

PR Daily Brief | PR Team

PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #64
ELECTIONS
PTI-backed independents gain ground in preliminary results
On 9 February, The Express Tribune reported that the preliminary results of the 2024 general elections in Pakistan revealed an unexpected trend: independent candidates supported by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) made significant gains despite challenges and a perceived lack of a fair playing field. As Imran Khan remains incarcerated, supporters celebrated their “victory” on 9 February as results indicated PTI-backed candidates leading in numerous constituencies. However, delays in result announcements and concerns over potential tampering raised tensions. This was in particular with regard to the internet suspension, which many have regarded as going against the democratic nature of elections. The PTI leadership voiced confidence in victory but warned against interference in the electoral process. Amidst criticism and frustrations, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) faced pressure to expedite result disclosures to uphold legal obligations. (Rizwan Shehzad, “PTI’s independent surge,” The Express Tribune, 9 February 2024)

KSE-100 fell sharply by 2000 points in intraday trading amid “unexpected” election results
On 9 February, The News International reported that according to Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), the KSE-100 index fell sharply by over 2000 points during the intraday trading as the results of the general elections started coming in. During the intraday trading the KSE-100 fell below 62000 mark by losing 3.34 per cent. The capital market expert Muhammad Sohail said: “The index fell by 3 per cent due to the “unexpected” results of the elections.” It is to be noted that the stocks before the general elections had closed at a higher mark, “boosted by a pre-election rally and hopes of an upgrade in the country’s credit rating.” According to the The News International, “The PSX gained 344.85 points or 0.54 per cent to close at 64,143.87 point.” (“KSE-100 nosedives over 2,000 points amid 'unexpected' poll results,” The News International, 9 February 2024)

PTI poised for electoral domination in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa
On 9 February, The Express Tribune reported that preliminary, unofficial results suggested a resounding victory for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in both National Assembly and Provincial Assembly constituencies in the province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P). PTI appeared to be convincingly defeating rival parties including JUI-F, ANP, PML-N, and PPP. Notably, even PTI defectors such as former chief ministers Pervaiz Khattak and Mehmood Khan were facing defeat, while those aligned with PTI were emerging victorious. The trend echoed the 2018 elections where PTI’s dominance prevailed. Key figures like Ghulam Ahmed Bilour, and members of PPP, ANP, and JUI-F were among those who could not counter PTI’s electoral strength. Additionally, PTI-backed candidates, contesting as independents, were poised for victory, reclaiming or retaining seats previously held by their parents or party affiliates. (Sahid Hamid, “PTI repeats 2018 sweep of K-P,” The Express Tribune, 9 February 2024)

Failure of the New Election Management System exposed due to internet suspension
On 8 February, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) gave assurances that it would guarantee the prompt announcement of results without relying on the internet. However, this claim fell flat in the wake of the suspension of internet services when the lack of connectivity presented a range of unforeseen but well-known difficulties, primarily for the Presiding Officers at several polling places, who were unable to send the final results of their respective stations via the much-discussed and locally developed Election Management System (EMS). Consequently, until late at night, the ECP had only announced a few results. By saying that the presiding officers would now ‘physically’ deliver the results of their polling places to the offices of their respective returning officers, where they would be transmitted via the system ‘once internet service is restored,’ an official of the constitutional body had somewhat reconsidered the ECP’s earlier claim in the evening. Senior journalist MB Soomro told Dawn that several foreign and local journalists were present in the Media Cell, which was established at the ECP, waiting for word on the outcome. Meanwhile, ECP Additional Director General (Monitoring & Evaluation) Haroon Khan Shinwari asserted earlier in the day that the commission was dedicated to making sure the election results were announced on schedule. (Imran Ayub and Amir Wasim, “New results system falls flat, like RTS in 2018,” Dawn, 9 February 2024)

Election-related violence in the provinces of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan
On 8 February, two incidents of violence happened in Dera Ismail Khan (DI Khan) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province resulting in casualties. At least nine people were killed and dozens of people were said to be injured. In a separate incident, five police officers were killed in DI Khan. Furthermore, two police officers were saved from an improvised explosive device (IED) within the jurisdiction of Kulachi police station in DI Khan. Meanwhile, in Balochistan, four people and two security personnel were killed. It is also reported that more than two dozen explosions and rocket attacks were spotted across the province. According to Dawn, grenade attacks and bomb explosions were also initiated when people started to arrive at the polling stations to vote in Kech and Gwadar districts of Makran. Similarly, a child was killed in Panjgur town when rockets were fired at the polling station. Subsequently, 30 people were killed in the bomb explosions that took place in areas of Khanozai and Qila Saifullah. (Muhammad Irfan Mughal, Umer Farooq, Saleem Shahid, and Behram Baloch, “Nine killed in KP, Balochistan election violence,” Dawn, 9 February 2024)

Several videos of ‘malpractice’ at polling stations surface on social media
On 8 February, several recordings of ‘malpractice’ at the polling stations flooded social media, prompting the anticipated accusations of election tampering by political parties that surfaced early in the day. In the PS-105 (Karachi East-IX) seat, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) alleged that ballot papers were stolen from the electoral personnel. Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) employees were accused by the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) of interfering with voting at several polling places. Social media users posted videos of masked individuals entering Karachi polling stations. According to Dawn, until this complaint was filed, it was impossible to confirm the veracity of the video’s recording date or legitimacy. Despite the countrywide shutdown of mobile internet throughout the voting process, Pakistanis living abroad saw and shared these recordings on social media and WhatsApp groups. Journalist Naimat Khan posted a video on his official X account depicting PPP candidate for NA-242, Qadir Khan Mandokhail, breaking down doors and barging into polling places with voting papers in hand. (“Videos of polling ‘malpractice’ flood social media,” Dawn, 9 February 2024)

US state department concerned over election violence and restrictions in Pakistan
On 9 February, Dawn reported that the US State Department expressed concern over election-related violence and internet restrictions during Pakistan’s polling day. Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel emphasized the need for a transparent electoral process and stated the US would monitor without preempting official results. He condemned violence and highlighted restrictions on freedom of expression. Patel reiterated Pakistanis’ right to determine their leadership and stressed the importance of a peaceful electoral process. The US, along with the international community, emphasized democratic principles and the importance of free press and political participation for all citizens. (Anwar Iqbal, “Alarmed by internet restrictions, US slams poll-related violence,” Dawn, 9 February 2024)

PPP officials raise various concerns regarding elections
On 8 February, PPP Chairperson Bilawal Bhutto Zardari took to X to express concern over the fact that elections results were “incredibly slow coming in,” but added that the results so far had been “very encouraging” as independents supported by PPP seemed to be “doing well.” Meanwhile, the PPP Central Election Cell’s In-charge Senator Taj Haider wrote a letter to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), alleging irregularities in the PK-16 constituency of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Haider conveyed that polling staff sent ten women at a time to vote in closed rooms, and the party’s polling agents were not allowed to enter the polling stations. He called on the ECP to “promptly address the matter and issue necessary directives to relevant authorities.” (“Bilawal concerned at ‘incredibly slow’ pace of results,” The Express Tribune, 9 February 2024)

“We will come and fix society and the country,” says Nawaz Sharif
On 8 February, after casting his vote the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) leader Nawaz Sharif asserted that it is important for a single party to get the votes so that it is less dependent on other parties. He further urged the people to cast their votes in the general elections. He further criticized Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan and said that he has destroyed the country. He said: “We will come and fix society and the country.” He further said, “We served jails terms. Children like Hamza and Maryam also spent time in jails. We have been looking for this day after offering all sacrifices.” (“One party getting full mandate crucial: Nawaz,” The News International, 9 February 2024)

Military highlights its “sacrifices,” hopes that elections will strengthen Pakistan’s democracy
On 8 February, the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) congratulated Pakistan for holding “generally peaceful and violence-free” elections. The statement added: “It is our fervent hope that our sacrifices would not be in vain and this election will serve as a catalyst for further strengthening democracy in Pakistan.” Further, the military acknowledged that despite 51 terrorist attacks during the elections, the country’s armed forces and law enforcement agencies were “dedicated to upholding peace and security” in order to protect the “democratic traditions” of Pakistan. The ISPR said that the military claimed to have “neutralized” many potential threats using “proactive intelligence maneuvers and swift action.” (“Military hopes election will serve as catalyst for strengthening democracy,” The Express Tribune, 8 February 2024)

Caretaker PM hails high voter turnout and commends those involved in conducting the elections
On 8 February, caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq Kakar appreciated the “participation and enthusiasm of the people of Pakistan” in the elections, linking the “high voter turnout” to “public commitment” towards shaping Pakistan’s future. He also acknowledged the role played by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), interim provincial governments, armed and civil armed forces, and the media, among others who “contributed to the conduct of the free and fair elections.” Kakar described the elections as a testament to the “indomitable spirit of the Pakistani people,” whose votes would contribute to the “fortification” of democracy. He also touched upon the terrorism incidents, commending the forces stationed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan for their “unwavering commitment to their duties,” and the people of the provinces for their “resolve.” Kakar highlighted that the conduct of the process despite the presence of threats that aimed to “destabilize” Pakistan underscored the “collective desire for peace, stability, and prosperity.” (“‘Unwavering commitment’: PM lauds high voter turnout,” The Express Tribune, 8 February 2024)

Commonwealth experts express satisfaction with the poll process
On 8 February, a team of international observers from the commonwealth who came to oversee the election process in Islamabad expressed satisfaction with the overall poll process and downplayed the suspension of internet services in the country. The Commonwealth team was led by the former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan. During his visit, he said that Pakistan is one of the key members of commonwealth countries. He further said: “Technical experts had been in Pakistan since December, to work with the Election Commission of Pakistan and other stakeholders.” He also concluded by saying that the team will issue a report on 10 February regarding the observations of the electoral process. (Jamal Shahid, “Commonwealth experts satisfied with poll process,” Dawn, 9 February 2024)

87 per cent of the voters believe the election process to be ‘free and fair’, says Gallup survey
On 8 February, a survey was conducted by Gallup Pakistan across the country by randomly selecting participants which revealed that a sizable majority of voters, 87 per cent trusted the electoral process to be ‘free and fair.’ Voters opinions regarding the fairness of the election and the impartiality of poll workers were included in Section 1 of the survey. Voter motivations were covered in Section 2, whereby seven voter kinds were classified. Section 3 examined the perception of voters’ vote efficacy. The new federal government is covered in the final section. The results are based on a survey of 1,500 voters from each of the nation’s four provinces who were statistically selected. The percentage of voters who supported candidates from their ‘biradari’ decreased by 8 per cent. 48 per cent of voters stated that they voted for their ‘biradari’, and 6 per cent more voters of General Elections 2024 as compared to the voters of General Elections 2018 think that their vote will enhance the state of the nation. (“General Election 2024: 87pc voters trust electoral process as ‘free and fair’: Gallup,” The News International, 9 February 2024)

Dawn editorial blames ECP and caretaker government for failing to conduct proper elections
On 9 February, an editorial in Dawn titled “Election reflections” stated that the “lackluster” 2024 elections, marked with delays and rule violations, ended with a “whimper.” This election was especially significant, as Pakistan is facing “unprecedented” economic and social challenges that only a “stable government that enjoys strong public support” can deal with swiftly. Given these challenges that were “pulling the country at its seams,” it was vital for the ECP to ensure unrestricted campaigning, a “non-controversial contest,” assisting voters in exercising their right to self-determination, and maintain transparency in ballot counting. However, the editorial asserted that the ECP “failed on almost all of those counts.” Under the pretext of putting off elections “till it was ready,” the ECP kept delaying the elections and was not even able to “protect the legitimacy of its last act,” according to the editorial. Blame was also placed on the caretaker government and state machinery for “robbing” the electoral process of its “sanctity,” by worsening “political polarization” and sentencing the process to “controversy” before it began. The editorial concludes by deducing that the nature of the electoral exercise means that “crisis and instability will continue to plague the nation.” (“Election reflections,” Dawn, 9 February 2024)

Suspension of internet and mobile services a “blatant disregard for the sanctity of democracy” says Dawn editorial
On 9 February, an editorial in Dawn titled “In the dark” regarded the suspension of internet and mobile services on the Election Day as a “blatant disregard for the sanctity of democracy.” It blamed the caretaker government and the “conspicuously passive ECP” as being responsible for leaving “thousands of voters clueless” on where their polling stations were. As the suspension was done citing security threats, the editorial questioned how “snapping communication channels” deters terrorism. The editorial contended that terrorism could not be “effectively combated with such indiscriminate shutdowns,” which in reality could “compromise” the security situation instead of “enhancing it.” A shutdown could block communication between citizens and cut off their access to emergency services. It held the shutdown as part of a “broader pattern of behavior” that has been exhibited by the caretaker government and the ECP. Other instances, including pre-poll rigging through the harassment and detainment of PTI candidates, and the chief election commissioner’s efforts to distance himself and the ECP from the suspension decision, removed “shreds of credibility” from the elections. Further, the editorial asserted that the ECP’s “failure” to ensure the integrity of elections and allow citizens to freely express themselves, and instead assume the role of a “passive observer,” both “compromised” this electoral process while setting a “dangerous precedent” for the future. The editorial concluded by saying that the caretaker government and the ECP should be held accountable for “violating the sacred trust of the people,” who deserve an “unimpeded chance” to cast their vote.(“In the dark,” Dawn, 9 February 2024)

Challenges galore, argues an analysis in Dawn
On 9 February, an article in Dawn titled “Multiple challenges face winner of general election” put forth the challenges that Pakistan’s new government will face. From an economic perspective, given that the country “narrowly averted sovereign default” in 2023 thanks to a USD three billion IMF bailout, the support will end in March. The new government will thus have to negotiate a new programme by staying on a “narrow path to recovery,” which will inevitably limit options of providing any sort of relief to the “frustrated population.” In terms of politics, given the high political tensions following Imran Khan’s prosecution, a continuing crackdown would “stoke tensions” because of the mass support he enjoys. Any further political tensions could deter foreign investment, which is the need of the hour. The new government would also have to combat the uptick in militant attacks from various groups, especially the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Although the attacks need to be addressed, the “limited fiscal space” makes it difficult to fund a military operation. Additionally, the ethno-nationalist Baloch insurgency that is targeting the interests of China is also something that requires attention. Lastly, the article talks about the “unprecedented friction” created at the borders by the TTP. The “tit-for-tat air strikes” between Pakistan and Iran last month may have been resolved but have also “opened up a new security worry for Pakistan on its western border.” On the eastern side, after Pakistan accused New Delhi of “running an assassination campaign” in Pakistan, there are fresh tensions which will only be exacerbated if India’s “Hindu nationalist government” comes back to power with a “heavy mandate.” (“Multiple challenges face winner of general election,” Dawn, 9 February 2024)

ECONOMY
PKR remains stable amidst uncertainty
On 9 February, Dawn reported that amid political and economic uncertainties, the Pakistani rupee remained “stronger” against the US dollar in the interbank market. The PKR appreciated by 8 paise on 7 February. Exporters swiftly sold their proceeds due to dollar depreciation, boosting dollar inflows. The exchange rate also remained stable for the last two months. Even though dealers suggested that the exchange rate was being managed, there have been no objections from the International Monetary Fund, as had been the case during negotiation for the USD 3 billion Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) in July 2023. Experts agree that the new government’s would have to negotiate another loan from the IMF “for the smooth sailing of the economy.” Experts believe that Pakistan’s foreign reserves may not suffice for debt servicing, necessitating urgent action from the new government to safeguard the economy’s current status. (Shahid Iqbal, “Rupee stays resilient despite challenges,” Dawn, 9 February 2024)

Nepra warns of diminished purchasing power amid electricity tariff reforms
On 9 February, Dawn reported that the country’s power sector regulator, Nepra, warned the government about diminishing purchasing power due to electricity tariff reforms. The caretaker government negotiated the terms with the International Monetary Fund last week and these measures include “a reduction in subsidies for residential and agricultural consumers and tariff cuts for the industries.” Nepra also revealed that it was forced to pass on the cost to the consumer and this combined with the general inflation in the country was the cause for the diminishing purchasing power parity which is a cause for concern. High costs of imported fuel and rupee devaluation increased generation costs. Balancing service providers and consumers was challenging amid rising electricity prices. The indicative generation capacity expansion plan aims to address future capacity needs. Under-utilization of ‘Take or Pay’ agreements burdens consumers. Thermal power generation capacity utilization remained low at 35 per cent. Non-optimal usage led to inefficiencies and increased costs. Payment for unused capacity amounted to PKR 47 billion in 2022-23. (Khaleeq Kiani, “Costly energy diminishes consumers’ purchasing power, warns Nepra,” Dawn, 9 February 2024)

Pakistan on Twitter

“Allegedly unlawfully results of elections in Pakistan have been changed by authorities against PTI's candidates. Also ROs have been reportedly threatened by unknown people who have grudge for PT.”
-Naqeeb Ullah Hamdard

“I remember when they ousted Imran Khan, this speech kept us alive, and we remain quiet to this day.”
-Babar Azam

“The Election of Pakistan (ECP) is under fire over the delay in announcing the results of yesterday’s elections. After 18 hours the elections result is not announced, which is usually announced within a few hours.”
- The Pakistan Frontier

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PTI-backed independents gain ground in preliminary results

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