Pakistan Elections, Two Days After: What do the numbers say?

Daily Briefs

Photo : Associated Press

10 February 2024, Saturday | Vol 5, No.23

Pakistan Elections, Two Days After: What do the numbers say?

For the national assembly of Pakistan, out of the 253 seats declared (of the 266 polled), the PTI backed candidates have won 88 seats, followed by PML-N 71 and the PPP 47

PR Daily Brief | PR Team

1600hrs, 10 February: What do the numbers say?
The numbers are provisional; the final tally may vary.

As on 1600hrs, 10 February, Saturday, according to Dawn, quoting Election Commission sources, for the national assembly of Pakistan, out of the 253 seats declared (of the 266 polled), the PTI backed candidates have won (88 )seats, followed by PML-N (71) and the PPP (47). Outside these three major parties, MQM-P has secured 14 seats followed JUI (03), MQM (02), and PML-Q (03). The BNP and IPP have won one seat each.

A province wise break-up for the national assembly seats are as follows:
1.       The PTI backed candidates mostly from KP and Punjab (36 and 50 respectively), none from Sindh, and one from Balochistan.
2.       The PML-N has won mainly from Punjab (65), followed by Balochistan and KP (03 and 02 respectively), Islamabad (02) and none from Sindh.
3.       The PPP has mostly from Sindh (40), followed by Punjab (05), KP and Balochistan (01 each).
4.       The MQM-P has won 14 seats – all are from Sindh, mainly Karachi.
5.       The PML-Q has won 03 seats – all from Punjab.
6.       The IPP, formed just before the elections comprising of those who left the PTI, could win only one seat from Punjab for the National Assembly.

What do the numbers mean?

First, the PTI rules the KP, and has posed a serious challenge to the PML-N in Punjab. In terms of numbers, it has won more from Punjab.
Second, the PML-N may aim to form the government with support from other parties, but it has little presence outside Punjab.
Third, two leading religious parties – JUI-F and JI have little and no presence respectively in the new Parliament. Another religious party – the TLP, though have fielded numerous candidates, is yet to secure a seat for the national assembly.
Fourth, only the PPP has won from all four provinces.

Pakistan Election 2024: Tentative update

BIG WINNERS AND LOSERS: PARTIES

PTI- backed Independents
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf was established in 1996 by the beloved Pakistani cricketer and now former Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan. The party Chairman is Gohar Ali Khan with Pervaiz Elahi as the party president. The independents are PTI-affiliated candidates who were forced to run independently as they were barred from using their electoral symbol “bat.” PTI formed the government in the 2018 elections by securing 157 seats but was deposed from its office in 2022 following a no-confidence motion. The party, leading to elections saw a systemic crackdown against its prominent leaders, with its founder and chairman Imran Khan jailed, symbol lost, and massive defection of its leaders. But despite the dismantling of the party, PTI- Independents enjoyed major support from the public as many argued that the cornering of PTI and the victimization has increased their popularity. In the recently culminated election, the PTI- backed independents amounted an an impressive 246 candidates after the massive migration of several of its prominent leadership and have been able to win a total of 88 national assembly seats.

Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz
Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz is a center-right political party founded in 1993 by the three times elect former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Currently, the party leadership consists of President Shehbaz Sharif, Raja Zafar-ul-Haq as the Chairman, and Nawaz Sharif as the prime ministerial candidate if the party comes to power. The establishment-backed party is amongst the frontrunners in the ongoing elections with its party supremo Nawaz Sharif back from his four years of self-imposed exile. PML-N promotes “Nawaz,” as the only hope and “saviour” of Pakistan and strongly believes that his return would pull the country from the political and economic crisis plaguing Pakistan. In the 2018 elections, the party was the second runner up, winning 84 seats in the National Assembly. But in an interesting turn of events it was able to form a coalition government under the People’s Democratic Movement in 2022 with Shehbaz Sharif as the Prime Minister, after toppling Imran Khan’s government in a no-confidence motion. In the 2024 elections, the party fielded 212 candidates and has won a total of 71 national assembly seats trailing behind the PTI-backed independents.

Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)
Pakistan People’s Party is a centre-left political party founded in 1967 by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. The party leadership consists of Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari. The party calls for provincial autonomy, and resolving issues like poverty and unemployment, in line with the ideologies of their former leader and Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. In the 2018 elections, the party was only able to secure the third position with 54 seats in the National Assembly and in 2020 it took part in the People’s Democratic Movement where Bilawal hosted an ‘all party conference’, strategizing the removal of PTI. In 2021, PPP and ANP withdrew from the PDM coalition stating that some parties (PML-N) high jacked the movement. In 2022, PDM formed the government with PML-N’s Shehbaz Sharif as the Prime Minister. In the recently concluded elections, PPP fielded 219 candidates for the 2024 elections and has won a total of 47 seats.

Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P)
Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan was formed after splintering from MQM founded in 1978 by Altaf Hussain. The MQM-P faction led by Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui was formed in 2016 after Farooq Sattar distanced itself from Altaf Hussain after his anti-Pakistan speech. In an article in Dawn, “WILL THE REAL MQM PLEASE STAND UP?,” by Azfar-ul-Ashfaque, aptly outlines the issues afflicting MQM-P. The Op-ed states that since the separation of the party from the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, MQM-P has failed to stand as a united front without the backing of Altaf Hussain, struggling to garner the same support. In 2018, the party took part in their first national assembly election where it secured 7 seats and formed a government in coalition with PTI in 2018 but soon left it for the PDM coalition in 2022 after ousting Imran Khan. In 2024, MQM-P contested with 86 candidates for the National Assembly and won 14.

Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)
The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) was formed by Altaf Hussain. The party was formerly known as the Muhajir Qaumi Movement and was founded in 1984 by APMSO. Altaf Hussain had established the All Pakistan Muhajir Student Organization (APMSO) as a student organization in 1978. It is a secular political party in Pakistan .The party is said to believe in ‘Realism and Practicalism.’ The MQM changed its name from Muhajir (which indicated the party's origins in the nation's Urdu-speaking community) to Muttahida in 1997. The MQM, which has historically been Karachi’s leading political group, is well renowned for having the capacity to mobilize large numbers of people. In the 2002 elections the party won 20 National Assembly seats however, the party boycotted the 2018 general elections due to the military intervention. In the recently concluded elections, the party has won 2 national assembly seats.

Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP)
The Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party was started in June 2023 by Jehangir Tareen, one of Pakistan’s wealthiest industrialists and financier of (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) PTI leader Imran Khan. The 9 May riots and the pre-existing animosity between Tareen and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf leader Imran Khan led to many PTI politicians quitting and forming a new political party, IPP. Soon after many previous PTI leaders who had announced their resignation from PTI, they came out of the shadows to declare their affiliation with the IPP. The IPP applied to register as a party with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) on 18 July 2023. The IPP’s registration was notified and the application was accepted by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) on 5 October 2023. The eagle was chosen as the party’s electoral symbol on 26 October 2023. Numerous electable candidates with significant personal power in their home regions are thought to make up the party. IPP in the 2024 general elections, which is its debut election has fielded 27 candidates for National Assembly seats and won one of them.

Jamaat-e-Islami (JI)
Jamaat-e-Islami party was founded by an Islamist author Syed Abul Ala Maududi in 1941. It is said to be the most influential organization and a right-wing religious party. JI along with other religious parties such as Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), and Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) have promised to endorse women’s empowerment and also promised to address women’s issues in Pakistan. With the alliances of the religious parties, it won 12 seats in the 2018 general elections and 2 seats in the 2013 general elections. In the 2024 general elections, JI has fielded around 241 candidates in the National Assembly with 44 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 3 in Islamabad, 90 in North, and Central Punjab, 36 in South Punjab, 55 in Sindh, and 13 in Balochistan respectively. It has failed to secure any seat.

Jamiat e Ulama e Islam (Fazal-ur-Rehman) (JUI-F)
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Pakistan (Fazl) is a Deobandi Sunni political party in Pakistan that was formed in 1988. The party is a faction of an established party Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JI) which was formed in 1941. The leader of the JUI-F party is Fazal-ur-Rehman. Deobandis have a strong presence in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Sindh, and Balochistan. JUI-F has been an ally of PML-N since 2013, despite being the ally it has formed coalitions with other religious parties. In 2002 the party won 41 seats in the National Assembly. In 2013, JUI-F won 15 seats out of 272 general seats in the National Assembly. In 2018 general elections, the party became the part of MMA alliance of religious parties and MMA won 12 seats. In the recently concluded elections, it has won 3 national assembly seats.

Balochistan Awami Party (BAP)
The Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) was founded in 2018 by political dissidents of the PML-N and PML-Q in Balochistan. The formation was announced in March 2018 by Saeed Ahmed Hashmi who was earlier with the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q). The current caretaker Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar had also played an instrumental role in its formation. Addressing a press conference at the time, he had said that the main priority of the party was to secure the economic and political rights of the people of Balochistan. The party had fought the 2018 elections with the slogan ‘Stronger nation, unified people’ and had emerged as the single largest party in Balochistan after winning 15 provincial assembly seats. They had also won four national assembly seats in the 2018 elections. They were a part of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) against the former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The current president of the party is Khalid Hussain Magsi and Khuda Babar is the party spokesperson. Other prominent personalities include Abdul Quddus Bizenjo, Naseebullah Bazai, Mir Amanullah Notezai, Prince Ahmed, Agha Shakeel Durran and Noor Ahmed Bangulzai. In the recently concluded elections, the BAP has won no seats yet in the national assembly.

Tehreek Labbaik Pakistan (TLP)
The Tehreek Labbaik Pakistan is a far-right religious party in Pakistan rooted in the Barelvi school of thought. Founded in 2015 by Khadim Hussain Rizvi, the party emerged following protests against the execution of Mumtaz Qadri who convicted of the assassination of former Punjab governor Salman Taseer. The TLP has projected itself as “the guardian of Prophet Muhammad’s honour, vehemently advocating for stringent penalties against those who disrespect the Prophet’s sanctity and finality.” It has also centered its agitation against blasphemy and those committing it. Initially considered a minor party, its performance in the 2018 general elections painted a different picture. According to an article in Dawn, the party secured “the position of the third-largest vote bank among the 14 National Assembly seats in Lahore,” only behind PML-N and the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI). It also bagged 2.19 million votes at the national level, however, none of its candidates won. The party has increasingly asserted its influence under its current leader Hafiz Saad Hussain Rizvi who took over in 2020. Its current manifesto also depicted a shift- it would fight for the religious rights of Muslims but also push for the development of the country, including protecting the rights of the religious minorities under the Constitution. In the recently concluded elections, the TLP fielded a total of whopping 223 candidates for the national assembly seats, more than the PML-N and the PPP. It has not won one a single seat so far.

Awami National Party
The Awami National Party was founded in 1986 by Abdul Wali Khan is an ethnic Pashtun nationalist, secular and liberal party. Its origins can be traced back to Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan’s Khudai Khidmatgars (KK) party in the 1930s. It is based mainly in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and strongly supported provincial autonomy. It successfully lobbied for not only its naming as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but also for FATA’s merger with KP. The party led by Asfandyar Wali Khan has projected itself as a secular and liberal part. It has not been in power in the last two decades and has been bogged down by charges of corruption. The party was also part of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM). It aims to replace PTI’s influence and its government in the region. The party had won one national assembly seat in the 2018 general elections. In the recently concluded elections, the ANP has not won a single national assembly seat.

BIG WINNERS AND LOSERS: INDIVIDUALS

Maryam Nawaz from the PML-N won NA-119, Lahore, with 83,855 votes. She is the daughter of Nawaz Sharif and the senior Vice President of the PML-N. This is her first-ever National Assembly Seat.
Shehbaz Sharif from the PML-N won NA123, Lahore, with 63,953 votes, and PP-158, Lahore, with 38,642 votes. He is the former Prime Minister of Pakistan and the President of the PML-N.
Nawaz Sharif from the PML-N won the NA-130, Lahore, with 179,310 votes. However, he lost NA-15, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, by 24,867 votes. He is the former Prime Minister of Pakistan and the leader of the PML-N.
Gohar Ali Khan from the PTI won NA-10, Buner, with 110,023 votes. He is the Chairman of the PTI.
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari from the PPP won NA-196, Qamber Shahdkot, and NA-194, Larkana, with 85,370 votes and 135,112 votes respectively. He is the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan, and the Chairman of the PPP.
Asif Ali Zardari from the PPP won NA-207, Shaheed Benazirabad, with 146,989 votes. He is the former President of Pakistan, and the President of the PPP.
Hamza Shehbaz from the PML-N won NA-118, Lahore II, with 105,960 votes. He is the former Chief Minister of Punjab and the Vice President of the PML-N.
Farooq Sattar won NA-244, Karachi West, with 20,048 votes. He is the leader of the MQM-P.
Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui from the MQM-P won NA-248, Karachi Central, with 103,082 votes. He is the convener of the MQM-P.
Raja Pervaiz Ashraf from the PPP won NA-52, Rawalpindi I, with 112,265 votes. He is the National Assembly speaker.
Asad Qaiser from the PTI won NA-19, Swabi, with 115,635 votes. He is the former National Assembly speaker and a prominent member of the PTI.
Khawaja Asif from the PML-N won NA-71, Sialkot II, with 118,566 votes. He is the former Defence Minister.
PTI-backed Zain Qureshi won NA-150, Multan III, with 126,770 votes. He is the son of incarcerated PTI leader Shah Mahmood Qureshi
PTI-backed Zartaj Gul Wazir won NA-185, Dera Ghazi Khan, with 94,881 votes. She is the former Minister of Climate Change of Pakistan.
Akhtar Mengal from the BNP (M) won NA-26, Surab-Kalat-Mastung, with 3,404 votes. However, he lost NA-264, Quetta, with 9,929 votes. He is the former Chief Minister of Balochistan and the Chairman of the BNP (M).
PTI-backed Shahzada Mohammad Gustasif Khan won NA-15, Lahore, with 105,249 votes.
Muhammad Hanif Abbasi from the PML-N won NA-56, Rawalpindi V, with 96,649 votes.
PTI-backed Sardar Latif Khosa won NA-122, Lahore VI, with 117,109 votes.
Sher Afzal Marwat from the PTI won NA-41, Lakki Marwat, with 117,988 votes. He is the leader of the PTI.
Syed Ali Musa Gilani from the PPP-P won NA-151, Multan IV, with 79,080 votes.
Omar Ayub Khan from the PTI won NA-18, Haripur, with 192,984 votes.
Noor Alam Khan from the JUI-F won NA-28, Peshawar I, with 138,389 votes. She was formerly part of the PTI.
Mahesh Kumar Malani from the PPP won NA-215, Tharparkar II, with 132,061 votes.
Abdul Hakeem Baloch from the PPP won NA-231, Karachi, with 43,634 votes.

Fazlur Rehman from the JUI-F lost NA-44, Dera Ismail Khan, with 59,922 votes. He is the President of the JUI-F.
Sirajul Haq from the JUI-F lost NA-6, Lower Dir I, with 56,538 votes. He is the chief of the JUI-F.
Jahangir Khan Tareen from the IPP lost NA-149, Multan II, with 50,166 votes. He is the founder of the IPP.
Pervez Khattak from the PTI-P lost NA-33, Nowshera, with 26,574 votes. He is the former Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the founder of PTI-P.
Aimal Wali Khan from the ANP lost NA-25, Charsadda II, with 67,876 votes. He is the leader of the ANP.
Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan lost NA-53 and NA-54, Rawalpindi, with 44,072 votes and 19,093 votes respectively. He is the former Leader of the Opposition, and the former Interior Minister.
Javed Latif from the PML-N lost NA-115, Sheikhpura III, with 94,144 votes.

Some Reactions:
Australia
Australia noted the initial results of Pakistan’s general elections and reaffirmed its stance on promoting a “free, fair, inclusive, and credible election process,” as outlined in Pakistan’s Constitution and international obligations. The country expressed condolences for lives lost in “terrorist attacks” during the election period. Australia applauded the increase in the number of women voters but lamented restrictions on political since “since not all political parties were allowed to contest these elections.”In its statement, emphasis was placed on Australian support for a “democratic, stable, and prosperous Pakistan” committed to democratic principles, including “human rights” and “media freedoms.”It also described itself as a “long-standing partner” of Pakistan, and expressed openness to working together towards a stable region.

David Cameron
The UK’s Foreign Secretary, David Cameron, emphasized “close and long-standing relationship” between Pakistan and the UK. While acknowledging voter participation, he expressed concern over the electoral process, noting “serious concerns raised about the fairness and lack of inclusivity.”Cameron highlighted issues such as the internet access constraints during polling and how “legal processes were used to prevent some political leaders from participation.”Other issues such as the “significant delays” in announcing the results and “claims of irregularities in the counting process” were mentioned. He urged Pakistani authorities to uphold “fundamental human rights including free access to information, and the rule of law.”Cameron stressed the importance of an accountable civilian government that represents the “interests of all Pakistan’s citizens and communities.”

Imran Khan
Imran Khan’s party delivered what it termed a “victory speech” by the imprisoned former prime minister, using a computer-generated voice to simulate Khan’s. The AI-generated voice congratulated said on behalf of Khan: “I congratulate you all for your election 2024 victory. I had full confidence that you would all come out to vote … and your massive turnout has stunned everybody.” This speech was put on PTI social media platforms after initial results indicated a win for PTI. He also alleged of “manipulation of results” according to “independent sources” after the party won 150 National Assembly constituencies.

Nawaz Sharif
Nawaz Sharif claimed victory in the country’s general elections, asserting that the PML-N had “emerged as the largest party” in Pakistan. He acknowledged, however, that the PML-N does “not have the majority to form the government on our own.”Sharif said that “it would have been good” if the PML-N had “got a full mandate and emerged as the majority party,” but he added that even in that scenario, other parties would have been invited to “join and walk with” the PML-N. Given the fact that his party was not able to secure a majority, he indicated plans to approach other parties, including Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians’ Asif Ali Zardari and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F)’s Maulana Fazlur Rehman, to discuss forming a coalition government aimed at getting “Pakistan out of its difficulties” and rebuild the “injured” country.

Maryam Nawaz
Maryam Nawaz Sharif asserted that the PML-N emerged as the “single largest party” both at the centre and in Punjab. She refuted the “false perception deliberately built by a section of media” on 8 February, and announced plans for a “victory speech” at the PML-N headquarters once the final results came in.Her statement followed criticism on social media questioning PML-N’s silence amid initial results favouring independents.

Bilawal Bhutto Zardari
Bilawal Bhutto Zardari expressed concern over the fact that the results were “incredible slow coming in.”He highlighted the promising initial outcomes for PPP candidates and independent contenders backed by the party, stating, “The initial outcomes for Pakistan People’s Party are promising.” Zardari urged caution, emphasizing the importance of awaiting the “final tally.”

Pakistan on Twitter

“Allegedly unlawfully results of elections in Pakistan have been changed by authorities against PTI's candidates. Also ROs have been reportedly threatened by unknown people who have grudge for PT.”
-Naqeeb Ullah Hamdard

“I remember when they ousted Imran Khan, this speech kept us alive, and we remain quiet to this day.”
-Babar Azam

“The Election of Pakistan (ECP) is under fire over the delay in announcing the results of yesterday’s elections. After 18 hours the elections result is not announced, which is usually announced within a few hours.”
- The Pakistan Frontier

Daily Briefs

Pakistan Elections, Two Days After: What do the numbers say?

For the national assembly of Pakistan, out of the 253 seats declared (of the 266 polled), the PTI backed candidates have won 88 seats, followed by PML-N 71 and the PPP 47

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