36 per cent newcomers for the National Assembly

Daily Briefs

Photo : Dawn

16 February 2024, Friday| Vol 5, No.28

36 per cent newcomers for the National Assembly

Imran Khan suggested Omar Ayub for the spot of prime minister

PR Daily Brief | PR Team

In Brief
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #69
36 per cent newcomers for the National Assembly
On 16 February, The Express Tribune reported that the recently concluded elections rendered a grand opportunity for newcomers. Around 96 newly elected lawmakers would take their National Assembly (NA) seats for the first time which is also the highest ever for the country. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has bagged the majority with 52 seats, followed by Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) with 15 seats, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) have secured 11 each. This is about 36 percent of those elected. Additionally, more than 100 independents have been elected to the national assembly this time which is also the highest ever for the country. Most of the PTI-backed independents hailed from Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province. Besides these parties, six women won in a direct contest. (Waqas Ahmad, “Record number of newcomers enter NA,” The Express Tribune, 16 February 2024)

ECP turns down Nawaz Sharif’s plea against his defeat in NA-15
On 15 February, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) turned down Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif’s plea against his defeat in NA-15 Mansehra-Torghar. On 8 February, Shahzada Gustasup Khan, supported by the PTI, defeated Sharif by a margin of more than 25,000 votes. Nawaz had contested his opponent’s win announcement, arguing that Form-45 for the constituency’s 125 polling places had not been sent out because snowfall had interfered with access to Kala Dhakka due to its remoteness. However, the ECP rejected the application “over non-pursuance” even before Jehangir Jadoon, Sharif’s lawyer could attend the proceedings. (Iftikhar A. Khan, “ECP rejects Nawaz’s plea against Mansehra defeat,” Dawn, 16 February 2024)

ECP’s power to withdraw an electoral symbol challenged before the LHC
On 16 February, Dawn reported that a petition has been filed in the Lahore High Court (LHC) challenging the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP)’s authority to strip a political party of its election symbol. Through counsel, Azhar Siddique, attorney Munir Ahmad filed a “public interest” petition challenging the provisions of Section 215 of the Elections Act of 2017, which establishes a party’s eligibility to receive an election symbol. The petitioner argued that the right to contest elections under a common symbol cannot be withdrawn as the ECP is a constitutional body and not a court or tribunal. Thus, any power it exercises to take away fundamental rights would be unlawful under Article 8. (Wajih Ahmad Sheikh, “ECP power to withdraw electoral symbol challenged,” Dawn, 16 February 2024)

PTI announces nominations for Punjab and Balochistan CM and KP speaker
On 15 February, following his meeting with Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) founder Imran Khan, PTI Chairman Gohar Ali Khan said that PTI candidate Mian Aslam Iqbal has been nominated for the post of chief minister in Punjab. He further announced Salar Khan as the chief ministerial candidate for Balochistan and Aqib Ullah Khan as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) assembly speaker. He asserted that the PTI would rather be in opposition than share power with its rival parties. Gohar urged the courts to expedite decisions on over 70 cases pertaining to the manipulation of election results, highlighting the fact that the PTI had rejected offers of power-sharing with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). He also raised concerns that the party’s two-thirds majority is being eroded and that others with a comparatively lesser number of seats are allegedly stealing the PTI’s mandate. (Imran Adnan, “PTI nominates PM and CMs, announces protest movement,” The Express Tribune, 16 February 2024)

Imran Khan nominates Omar Ayub as the PTI prime minister; breaks ice with the JUI-F
On 14 February, Imran Khan suggested Omar Ayub for the spot of prime minister. He further instructed his party leaders and supporters to form a joint front with other political parties against rigging in the 8 February elections. During the meeting, Imran asked Asad Qaiser to reach out to the other political parties that were contesting the rigging in the 2024 elections. The party list includes Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F), Awami National Party (ANP), and Qaumi Watan Party (QWP). Qaiser has also termed the general elections “the worst in Pakistan’s history and called for concerted action against electoral malpractice.” On the same day, upon Imran’s directives, the PTI delegation had called JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman in hopes of joining their ‘anti-rigging drive.’ JUI-F leader Hafiz Hamdullah said at the meeting: “The point of view presented by the PTI is the same as the one highlighted by the JUI-F Central Executive Committee meeting.” Adding to that, he said that the next step has not been decided, however, it will be decided later. ( Imran Adnan, “PTI nominates PM and CMs, announces protest movement,” The Express Tribune, 16 February 2024)

ANP rules out negotiations with the PTI
On 15 February, Awami National Party (ANP) central general secretary Mian Iftikhar Hussain said that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) senior leader Asad Qaiser had contacted the party leadership to hold protests against rigging in the recently concluded elections. Hussain, however, ruled out the possibility of any negotiations with the PTI, stating that the PTI was handed out a government through rigging, so the ANP could only condemn it by holding protests. In this regard, he stated: “ANP has been defeated and PTI was supported.” He further informed that the ANP had already decided to hold protests from 20 February “against election rigging, alteration of results and use of money.” (“ANP refuses to negotiate with PTI,” Dawn, 16 February 2024)

PML-N member discusses the party’s post-election position
On 16 February, The Express Tribune reported that questions on the credibility of elections which benefited the PML-N have begun arising, following the reaction of the party’s former ally, the JUI-F led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman. The article quoted a second-generation PML-N leader, who asked how any government formed as a “consequence of such a visibly tainted exercise” could “survive.” He also expressed doubts over whether PML-N’s loss was organic or deliberately orchestrated, but said that since the “party decided to pursue forming a government,” it could not take a “definitive position” on this matter. The PML-N is the only party that decided to accept the election outcome, but simultaneously raised questions about the electoral process in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where PTI-backed candidates emerged victorious. With regard to potentially changing its position on the polls, the PML-N leader said that the party may have to modify its stance if Rehman continues to maintain that the elections were rigged. The leader was also asked about Nawaz Sharif’s decision to not become the prime minister, to which he said that multiple external forces were in play, and that many PML-N members and those who voted for the party just for Sharif to become the prime minister, were disappointed. (Rameez Khan, “PML-N awakening to its empty victory,” The Express Tribune, 16 February 2024)

Editorial in Dawn on implications of “king’s parties” on Pakistan’s politics and democracy
On 16 February, an editorial in Dawn titled “All the king’s men” centered around the “long and chequered history” of “king’s parties” (parties that were created and nurtured by unelected forces) in Pakistan. In the 2024 elections, three king’s parties seemed to have “fizzled out rather quickly.” The first is the Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP), composed of “PTI deserters” that was projected to perform well in Punjab but “failed spectacularly” by only securing two National Assembly (NA) seats. With the “dismal performance” and the retirement of IPP supremo Jahangir Tareen from politics, the editorial questioned with the IPP would “survive” till the next elections. The second is the PTI-Parliamentarians (PTI-P) which did “worse” as it did not win a single NA seat, and the third is the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) which was “humbled by the polls.” According to the editorial, “cobbling” king’s parties together is an old practice, with the Muslim League being used by military strongmen to “form parties that could give their projects a civilian face.” Multiple factions of the Muslim League that are the products of either military rule or an individual were also formed to “keep popular parties,” such as the IPP in 1988, in check. However, the editorial acknowledged that in spite of being “products of dictatorship,” some parties have elements of democracy in them. Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N which has a “genuine following” is one such example, along with other political forces that have “served the purpose” at critical points. The MQM is another example of a party that has received “heavy mandates” in Karachi in exchange for doing the “bidding of the establishment.” Alliances with unelected forces have served the short-term interests of these parties and done “long-term harm” to the country’s democracy. The editorial concludes by asserting that powerful quarters must stop “creating and patronizing political parties” that have limited appeal, in order to “stave off the continuous crises that afflict Pakistani politics.” (“All the king’s men,” Dawn, 16 February 2024)

POLITICS
Sources close to Army Chief Bajwa and General Hameed deny JUI-F chief’s claims regarding conspiracy against Imran Khan
On 15 February, sources close to former Army Chief Gen (R) Qamar Javed Bajwa and ex-DGISI Lt General (R) Faiz Hameed denied the statements made by JUI-F’s chief, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, in which he claimed that the ouster of Imran Khan was at the behest of Bajwa. Earlier on the same day, Rehman claimed in an interview that Bajwa and Hameed were involved in successfully passing the no-confidence motion against Khan. He stated that leaders of all political parties were called in the presence of the generals, and the latter were responsible for leading the motion. He acknowledged that he used to express his views “in opposition parties’ meetings,” but could not refuse the motion because he may have then “been blamed for saving Imran Khan regime.” The sources denied this claim and pointed out that “Gen Faiz was Corps Commander Peshawar when no-confidence against Imran khan was moved.” The source close to Bajwa stated that Bajwa had met Maulana once at his official residence during the march against Khan, and again in 2022 when Bajwa had to meet the then opposition leaders on the request of Khan, who wanted the withdrawal of the no-confidence motion. This source went on to say that the generals pressed the opposition leaders to let Khan finish his term; when it was evident that they were not open to this, they were asked to withdraw the motion in return for Khan announcing elections. Khan allegedly invited these generals to hold discussions with him and his key ministers to see how he could save his government, and asked the generals to oppose the opposition for the same. Quoting Bajwa, the source claimed that the chief would deny Rehman’s statement under oath if Rehman did the same. (Ansar Abbasi & Asim Yasin & Mohammad Anis, “Campaign against Imran: Bajwa, Faiz reject Fazl’s claim no-trust motion launched at their behest,” The News International, 16 February 2024)

Pakistan falls by 11 ranks in Democracy Index, slides from hybrid to authoritarian regime
On 15 February, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) published a study titled “Age of Conflict,” on the state of democracy in 165 independent states, in which it reported a fall in democratic standards globally in 2023 due to wars, authoritarianism, and decline in trust in mainstream political parties. Using a range of indicators, countries were classified as full democracy, flawed democracy, hybrid regime or authoritarian regime. Norway, New Zealand, and Iceland secured the top three places; North Korea, Myanmar, and Afghanistan were the bottom three countries. Within Asia, Pakistan suffered the biggest regression, as its score fell to 3.25 and it went from a hybrid regime to an authoritarian regime, suffering a decline of 11 places in the global ranking. It was one of six states globally which experienced a change in classification, and the EIU pointed out: “Unsurprisingly, elections in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Russia — where opposition forces are subject to state repression — will not bring regime change or more democracy.” The EIU attributed the decline to the “outsized influence of the military” that prevented the elections from being “free, fair or competitive.” (“Tumultuous year sees Pakistan slide down ‘Democracy Index’,” Dawn, 16 February 2024)

General Lodhi on encounter between military establishment and Imran Khan
On 16 February, The News International reported that former secretary defence Lt-General (R) Naeem Khalid Lodhi told them that the military had indirectly contacted Imran Khan to get him to admit he planned the 9 May attacks and say that he would not repeat something like that in the future. There was reportedly no outcome of this conversation, as Khan maintained that he did not plan the attacks and stated that anyone involved in the incidents had been removed from the PTI. Lodhi also told The News that while he was not aware of any post-election contact between the two, there may be more discussions in the future. He advised Khan and the PTI to accept the reality of the Pakistani army, and advised the military establishment to recognize the PTI, since it was the most popular political entity in the elections. (Ansar Abbasi, “Lt-Gen Lodhi claims there was a contact between establishment and IK,” The News International, 16 February 2024)

ECONOMY
Market sources warn of potentially detrimental impact on exchange rate due to import liberalization
On 15 February, Dawn reported that as per market sources, the latest IMF proposal to liberalize imports further could destabilize the PKR-USD parity. A senior banker told Dawn that the IMF wanted a “45 per cent increase in imports” in the second half of FY24, which would “surely put pressure on the exchange rate.” While he was sure that Pakistan would receive the last tranche of USD 1.2 billion under the Stand-By Arrangement in March, he said that the country would have to “liberate the imports” which would strain the exchange rate. In the first half of FY24, there was a 16 per cent decline in imports, and the failure of the government to allow imports as per the IMF’s conditions could make it difficult to secure another bailout package worth more than USD six billion. With the government short of USD six billion for debt servicing for FY24 and the State Bank of Pakistan having enough foreign exchange reserves to cover imports for the next six weeks only, importers have not received any leniency from banks for opening letters of credit. (Shahid Iqbal, “IMF’s liberal import plan may imperil stable rupee,” Dawn, 16 February 2024)

Increase in fuel price “crucial for the gas sector’s stability,” says an editorial in Dawn
On 16 February, an editorial in Dawn titled “Hiking gas prices” pointed out that the 45 per cent increase in gas prices meant that the caretaker government met another goal of the IMF’s USD three billion programme. This decision was approved by the cabinet on the recommendation of the Economic Coordination Committee on 15 February, which was also the deadline to implement the IMF condition. The editorial stated the “significant part” of the decision is the approving of “uniform gas rates” for cash-rich fertilizer companies, thus revoking “massive subsidies being pocketed by them for decades.” It also highlighted that the textile industry “got away” again with a smaller raise than the one proposed by the energy minister for “already hugely subsidized captive power,” in spite of the IMF’s condition to make gas supplies expensive to divert the resources to cheaper RLNG power plants. The industry minister “got his way” by claiming that the higher captive power gas prices could impact textile exports. According to the editorial, the increase in fuel prices was “crucial for the gas sector’s stability,” as the new government would need to secure a “longer, bigger” IMF bailout to prevent a “potential sovereign default.” Other important aspects include improving the cash flow of the two public gas firms, reducing the circular debt, and discouraging “wasteful use” of the fuel. The editorial also referred to the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) decision to revise its inflation projections for FY 24 to 23-25 per cent from 20-22 per cent. As per the SBP, the “large adjustments have significantly impacted the inflation outturns and its near-term outlook.” The editorial concluded by emphasizing that if authorities do not take “serious reforms” to combat underlying structural issues in the energy sector, the economy would face “periodic shocks” and price stability will “remain elusive.” (“Hiking gas prices,” Dawn, 16 February 2024)

Pakistan on Twitter

“It is not PTI's mandate stolen. It is the mandate stolen from People of Pakistan.”
- Hamza Khan

“Candidates are working hard for the mandate of people of Pakistan.”
-Mustafa

“Pakistan drops 11 places to be reclassified from hybrid to authoritarian in The EIU democracy index.”
-Javed Hassan

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