Major General Babar Iftikhar, Director-General of Inter-Services Public Relations today (Thursday) held an exclusive press conference to explain Pakistan's position regarding what happened after Balakot strike by India. According to the Express Tribune, "He said the presser was being conducted to "correct the record" and addressed the events of February 27, when Pakistan shot down two aircraft of the Indian Air Force (IAF), a day after the botched Balakot airstrikes.." ("DG ISPR calls political statement about Abhinandan release an attempt to ‘distort history’, The Express Tribune, 29 October 2020)

The News said the following, as a background to his press release: He spoke to media hours after a controversial statement was issued by PML-N leader Ayaz Sadiq the previous day, who said the Indian pilot was released under pressure by the Imran Khan-led government from fear of an Indian attack.  "This, in my opinion, is not acceptable to any Pakistani," he said. "Such a negative narrative will have direct consequences on Pakistan's national security and the enemy is taking full advantage of this in the information domain." ("DG ISPR press conference: Linking Abhinandan's release to anything other than a mature response 'misleading'," The News, 29 October 2020)

According to Dawn, he said: "A statement was given yesterday which tried to distort the history of issues associated with national security." Dawn further quoted him saying that following the Pulwama attack India "showed aggression against Pakistan in violation of all international laws on February 26, 2019, in which not only did it face defeat but was humiliated around the world...Pakistani armed forces' alert and timely response foiled the enemy's designs. The enemy planes that had come to drop the explosives on the Pakistani people escaped while dropping their payload on empty mountains in panic after seeing our Shaheens." ("'We gave them a bloody nose and it is still hurting': DG ISPR on Abhinandan episode," Dawn, 29 October 2020)

Dawn further quoted him: "Pakistan responded to India in broad daylight after announcing it. Not only did we give an appropriate reply, but also shot down two enemy war planes [and] Wing Commander Abhinandan was captured...During these actions, the enemy became so frightened that it shot down its own helicopter and troops in a state of panic. [...] This victory not only exposed India's hollow claims of power before the world but made the entire Pakistani nation proud."

He further said: "Being a responsible state, the Government of Pakistan in order to give peace another chance decided to release Indian prisoner of war Wing Commander Abhinandan...I make to make it clear once again for the sake of record that Pakistan first showed its capability and resolve and this decision was taken keeping in view all warfare options from a position of strength. Pakistan's leadership and the armed forces were fully prepared to deal with any situation." ("'We gave them a bloody nose and it is still hurting': DG ISPR on Abhinandan episode," Dawn, 29 October 2020)

On 25 October, the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) held its third rally in Quetta, claiming that the PTI government's end was near. The PDM leaders declared that the people of the province with their large turnout had given a clear message to the Centre to respect their democratic freedom. (Saleem Shahid, "PDM defies all odds, vows to oust 'selected' govt," Dawn, 26 October 2020)

Rally in Quetta confirms that the political situation is escalating dangerously in the country: Dawn editorial 
An editorial in Dawn critical of the growing political tension in Pakistan states that the rally by the PDM in Quetta confirmed fears that the political situation is escalating dangerously in the country. The government and opposition are now locked in a treacherous spiral as political tensions rising each day, with both sides picking up extreme position leaving no middle ground. Further, while highlighting the cycle of instability that has engulfed the country, has often no one ends up being the victor, thus the establishment time and again steps in to break the warring sides and take centre stage, thus ensured that the Pakistani democratic project remains weak. The editorial concluded by stating that the only way to defuse this dangerous situation is for all concerned to step back and break the spiral of events before it is too late and space for compromise disappears. ("Growing acrimony," Dawn, 27 October 2020)

It's hard to say if the opposition's onslaught will be a transformative moment which will usher in great change: Opinion
An opinion in the Dawn states that although the coming together of PDM has now taken political centre stage while the government becomes nervous, it asks what the onslaught of the opposition will achieve? Will it change anything or everything? Or will nothing change? To this, the opinion says that the government may not be ousted or the establishment may not get so scared that it retreats from politics entirely, but there will be some change somewhere, maybe some pressure on the opposition will ease; some of the more ambitious plans may be discarded, and some space will be ceded. However, it remains hard to make predictions, especially as it is not clear if the opposition is in the mood for more than a few jalsas at the moment and with them promising more but the 'more' is so vague that it is hard to consider it. (Arifa Noor, "Fight to the last speech," Dawn, 27 October 2020)

On 27 October, at least seven people were killed and over 70 injured, after an explosive device in a bag detonated inside a madrassa in Peshawar's Dir Colony. Police sources disclosed that around 40-50 children were present inside the madrassa when the bomb went off. The SP City Peshawar stated that an unidentified man entered the madrassa in the morning and left a suspicious bag in the premises, adding that the bag is believed to have had an IED device that went off when the children started filling in the seminary. Further, the Assistant Inspector General of Police (AIG) reported that five kilograms of explosives were used.

KP Chief Minister condemns the incident
Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister strongly condemned the incident AND Expressing grief at the loss of precious lives in the blast. Further, the CM ordered the police to launch an inquiry immediately, adding that those responsible will not be able to escape the law. The CM also ordered rescue services and hospitals to provide immediate emergency care to those injured. ("At least seven killed, 70 injured in Peshawar madrassa blast," Dawn, 27 October 2020)

On 23 October, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) announced that Pakistan would remain on the increased monitoring list, the so-called grey list for another four months, adding, "to date, Pakistan has made progress across all action plan items and has now largely addressed 21 of the 27 action items. As all action plan deadlines have expired, the FATF strongly urges Pakistan to swiftly complete its full action plan by February 2021." Further, the watchdog said, "The FATF takes note of the significant progress made on a number of action plan items." This comes after the FATF held a three-day virtual plenary session, which started on 21 October to review Pakistan's progress. The next plenary is due on 21-26 February. (Khaleeq Kiani, "Pakistan to stay on FATF grey list till February," Dawn, 24 October 2020)

FATF president ask Pakistan 'to do more'
Dr Marcus Pleyer, president of the FATF while appreciating the commitment and efforts made by the country said, "It needs to do more" and carry out reforms to meet targets, adding, "Pakistan needs to complete six outstanding items" and report back after which FATF would send a technical team for on-ground verification as these were "very serious and risks are not over until the government of Pakistan repairs all six outstanding items."

Pakistan welcomes the decision
Pakistan welcomed the outcome, saying "this is indicative of the confidence of the FATF on the efforts of the Pakistani government." FM Qureshi said, "Considering all this progress, the FATF forum should view Pakistan's measures positively and create room for Pakistan," adding that he hopes the world will "acknowledge" the steps taken by the country. The industries minister, who led by the Pakistani delegation to the virtual plenary, said: "Blacklisting Pakistan was now off the table." The finance ministry went on to state that the FATF has recognized Pakistan's sustained and irreversible efforts and upgraded overall nine items. "There is no item remaining in the incomplete category," ("'To remain on grey list': FATF urges Pakistan to complete action plan by Feb 2021," Dawn, 24 October 2020)

Strategic deficiencies in four major areas need to be worked on 
Pakistan has to continue to work on implementing its action plan to address its strategic deficiencies in four major areas.

First, to show that law enforcement agencies (LEAs) are identifying and investigating the widest range of terror financing (TF) activity and that TF investigations and prosecutions target designated persons and entities and those acting on behalf of or the directive of the designated persons or entities.

Second, to address TF prosecutions result in effective, proportionate and dissuasive sanctions.

Third, to demonstrate effective implementation of targeted financial sanctions against all designated terrorists under 1267 and 1373 resolutions of the UN Security Council and those acting for or on their behalf, preventing the raising and moving of funds, including in relation to NPOs (non-profit organizations), identifying and freezing assets (movable and immovable) and prohibiting access to funds and financial services.

Fourth, to look into enforcement against targeted financial sanctions (TFS) violations, including in relation to NPOs, of administrative and criminal penalties and provincial and federal authorities cooperating on enforcement cases.

Action Plan items addressed thus far
The action plan items which have been addressed by Pakistan include highly important areas of the financial sector, illegal hawala/hundi, cross-border currency regime, international cooperation in terrorist financing cases, amendments to the Anti-Terrorism Act, implementation of targeted financial sanctions by financial institutions, applying sanctions for anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) violations and controlling facilities and services owned or controlled by designated persons and entities.

An editorial in the Dawn says that it is no coincidence that the National Accountability Bureau has increased its efforts against the opposition parties' members as the latter is going "full throttle" in criticizing the incumbent PTI government. The editorial opines that the incumbent government and PM Khan's strategy of hurling threats, stamping of fresh cases and revoking production orders solidify the opposition's allegations of "personal vendetta" against Khan. Since the commence of PTI's rule, opposition members have accused the Center and the NAB of unleashing a politically motivated, biased and one-sided "witch-hunt". The recent claims by ex-DG FIA Bashir Memon where he says that Imran Khan ordered him to prosecute members of the opposition without evidence, is a further blow to the credibility of the accountability drive. The article says that the negation of "principles of independent, impartial accountability that form the basis of any equitable justice system" is a "dangerous trend" that will backfire. Further, it will destroy the trust of the civilians in the judicial system of the country.

Previously…

PM Imran Khan had expressed frustration with the procrastination of the accountability process and demanded its speedy conclusion. According to Dawn, following Khan's fiery speech, NAB approved references against "PML-N leaders, including Nawaz Sharif, his ex-secretary Fawad Hasan Fawad, former minister Ahsan Iqbal, former foreign secretary Aizaz Chaudhry and former IB chief Aftab Sultan". Meanwhile, responding to Khan's public plea to Pakistan's Chief Justice, the Supreme Court has ordered all 24 accountability courts to not grant any adjournments to parties in corruption references and to expedite the proceedings. ("NAB on the rampage," Dawn, 24 October 2020)

Imran also talked about the increasing food prices and said wheat flour prices increased due to as ill-timed rains, prices of ghee and pulses increased because of the international prices (Pakistan imported 60 per cent of its pulses and edible oil) and blamed the sugar cartel for rising sugar prices. (Hassan Sheerazi, "PM terms meetings with opposition leaders' mistake'," Dawn, 24 October 2020)

On World Polio Day, Pakistan needs to introspect, says editorial
An editorial in Dawn expressed that polio cases in Pakistan are rising with a "vengeance." This year alone, Pakistan recorded 80 cases. The editorial cites the Independent Monitoring Board report and other studies and says though the Covid-19 pandemic places other health issues at lesser importance, the polio problem started before the pandemic. The IMB report identified negligence in key areas and failure to appoint doctors to lead the polio response in Karachi's super-high risk union councils. The editorial suggests expanding the existing community health network to include local doctors to combat Covid-19 and polio. ("World Polio Day," Dawn, 24 October 2020)

SC seeks report on minorities' commission progress
On 23 October, The SC inquired if Dr Shoaib Suddle's one-member commission to implement the 2014 verdict on the protection of minorities' rights made progress. Dr Suddle said neither the Religious Affairs Ministry nor the civil society cooperated with him. He said the Ministry set up a separate commission and its secretary nominated himself as its chairman. Further, he added that the majority of the members in the Ministry's commission were Muslims. Directing the government to cooperate with Suddle, the SC has sought a report on the progress within a month. ("State must protect minorities: Supreme Court," The Express Tribune, 24 October 2020)

Interior Ministry presents statistics on terrorist incidents from 2015-2020
On 23 October, The Interior Ministry briefed the Senate that 3,990 incidents of terrorism took place from January 2015 to September 2020. As many as 1,139 incidents occurred in 2015; 785 in 2016; 741 in 2017; 584 in 2018; 482 in 2019; and 259 till September 2020. The civilian and security personnel casualties over the five years stood at 3,384 and as many as 8,436 were wounded. ("3,990 terrorist incidents between Jan 2015, Sept 2020 in Pakistan," The Daily Times, 24 October 2020)

ON PDM
Baloch government warns PDM of security threat, four terrorists killed
On 23 October, the Balochistan government spokesperson asked the PDM to postpone its public meeting, scheduled on 25 October saying there was "credible information" about security threats. He emphasized the government was not afraid of the PDM but requested them to take the Nacta warnings seriously. 

Later in the day, four alleged terrorists were killed and two security personnel injured in an exchange of fire during a joint operation by the CTD and intelligence personnel in Mastung district. The CTD recovered suicide jackets, a huge quantity of explosives, arms and ammunition from terrorists' hideout. They were allegedly members of a banned outfit and were wanted in various cases of attacks. ("Govt urges PDM to delay Quetta rally amid 'threat'," Dawn 24 October 2020)

ON CPEC
Senate questions CPEC Authority's validity
On 23 October, the Senate raised concerns over the legal status of the CPEC Authority as its Ordinance expired in June 2020. PPP Senator Raza Rabbani also said he regretted that the government promulgated the Pakistan Island Development Authority (Pida) Ordinance without discussing the matters involved with Sindh and Balochistan. However, the Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs said that CPEC would be "taken forward" even though some people wanted it to fail. On the delay in tabling of the Pida ordinance, the government could lay the ordinance within 120 days of its promulgation as per Article 89. ("Legal status of CPEC Authority questioned in Senate," Dawn, 24 October 2020)

ON GILGIT-BALTISTAN
Bilawal Bhutto addresses meeting in GB
In an election address in GB, Bilawal Bhutto said GB needs to be protected from the destruction Imran Khan carried out in Punjab and KP referring to unemployment, lack of educational and health institutions. He recalled the contributions of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto to GB - wheat subsidy and Lady Health Visitors program - and asked the people to help PPP win in all GB constituencies to fulfil their demands. (Asim Yasin, "GB to be protected from Imran's destruction: Bilawal," The News International, 24 October 2020)

EXTERNAL
Will not make a decision compromising stance on Kashmir, says Foreign Minister
On 23 October, Foreign Minister Qureshi said dialogue with India does not seem possible. He said conditions are not conducive due to India's actions in "occupied Kashmir." He said the future course, if any, includes India reviewing its "illegal and unilateral" decision on Kashmir. On Gilgit-Baltistan, he said any decision regarding the provincial status would be taken after consulting stakeholders and emphasized that Pakistan would not make a decision that could compromise its stance on the Kashmir dispute. Qureshi also mentioned that India failed to push Pakistan into the FATF's blacklist and The world acknowledges Pakistan's progress in the matter. ("Conditions not conducive for talks with India, says Qureshi," Dawn, 24 October 2020)

On 18 October, Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) alliance took to Karachi with another power show while sticking to the same aggressive tone. At a jam-packed Bagh-i-Jinnah, the leaders of the opposition parties seemed unimpressed with the warning of the PM and vowed that their struggle would continue till the fall of Imran Khan's government. The rally was the second in a series with as the PDM held its maiden power show in Gujranwala on 16 October.

Maryam Nawaz sets the tone for the jalsa 
Before she left for the meeting she stated, "We are not afraid of prisons as we haven't served jail terms earlier in a VIP manner," she said. "Why Imran Khan is so worried? Mian Sahib didn't address him in his speech. It's not against him. The kids should stay away from the fight of elders. His speech and anger suggested that he has already lost the battle. He's panicked and frustrated. It would only end with the fall of his government." Later at the meeting, she stated that their campaign was not against Imran Khan and he should stay away from the "fight between big guns."

Similarly, PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari urged the prime minister take lessons from "past dictators" while JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman in his statement urged the army chief to maintain a distance from "foolish friends," and also added that the alliance of the opposition political parties would continue their struggle till complete restoration of complete democracy in the country. (Imran Ayub, "PDM stages second tour de force in Karachi," Dawn, 19 October 2020) (Zia Ur Rehman, "Karachi overwhelms Maryam Nawaz with love as PPP hosts massive anti-PTI rally," The News International, 19 October 2020)

Statements from other parties 
BNP-M leader Sardar Akhtar Mengal spoke about the lack a free and independent media in the country and about the numerous issues faced in Balochistan while stating that a democratic order should be restored in the country where smaller nationalities of the Federation were given maximum autonomy as had been promised to them at the time of the creation of Pakistan.

Mahmood Khan Achakzai of Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party stated that people demanding autonomy for the provinces were being dubbed as traitors, adding that the PDM looks at the supremacy of the Constitution, the rule of law and provision of rights to people of the country. Further, he stated that the situation in the country had not worsened due to PM Imran Khan but due to his selectors.

MNA Mohsin Dawar of PTM demanded that a truth commission be constituted to probe into allegations against the political leaders as well as dictators to set the course of future democracy and avoid further intervention from non-democratic forces. (Azeem Samar, "PDM takes another step," The News International, 19 October 2020)

Declare that Imran Khan is leading a puppet regime
The PDM leader went on to declared that the government of PM Imran Khan need to be removed as it lacked the mandate to rule the country and for sheer bad governance, causing serious hardships to the countrymen due to the ruined state of the economy. Further, stating that Imran Khan was leading a puppet regime, which had been installed with a fake mandate, and by the only way to restore genuine democracy in the country where rulers were elected through votes of the people was by dismissing his government.

PM Imran Khan labels the power show in Gujranwala as a "circus"
On 17 October, PM Imran Khan criticised Nawaz Sharif for allegedly defaming the top army leadership, saying the PML-N supremo himself was launched into politics through the help of the military establishment. Further, while dismissing the opposition's power show of in Gujranwala as he labelled it a "circus." Further, he warned of getting "tougher" with opposition parties and declared to start making all-out efforts to bring Nawaz Sharif back to Pakistan. ("Charged up PM Imran hits back at Nawaz for 'maligning' military leadership," Dawn, 18 October 2020)

An opinion says that the government faces no immediate threat to its stability from the PDM
An opinion in the Dawn critical of the PDM's ability to bring about a change states that mainstream political parties here, especially those advocating for change, are ossified, dynastic, and self-serving, thus due to these characteristics substantive transformation will not be possible. On the other hand, those actors who control the state have no motivation to give up their control. In such a situation, the opinion states that it is hard to see a clear route to greater constitutionalism. Thus, while the present wave of opposition protests, is an attempt create a political space for parties currently outside the ruling arrangement, the government faces no immediate threat to its stability for it position remains secure in many regions. The opinion concludes by stating what this movement means for the general political sphere in Pakistan given that parties with revolutionary rhetoric find themselves acting out as mildly reformist in office, however, like any form of social action, politics is complex, and hard to predict and pre-empt, especially for those involved in it. (Umair Javed, "Confrontation and continuity," Dawn, 19 October 2020)

An opinion says PDM cannot raise the democratic flag without meaningfully defending women's and minorities' rights
An opinion in the Dawn critical of the PDM's ability to prioritise representation for all states that, with the PDM led by Maulana Fazl it is uncertain women's and minorities' issues will be addressed. Further, critical of women's representation in the PDM states that Maryam Nawaz's prominent position among PDM leaders means that the gendered aspect of the PDM is less frequently addressed, however, her presence is not a sign of genuine female representation. Further, the anti-minority rhetoric at recent rallies by religious and religio-political groups shows the rightward shift in the political spectrum. Further, the opinion states that the PDM cannot raise the democratic flag without meaningfully defending women's and minorities' rights, adding that if the PDM has to garner support, it must add the defence of women's and minorities' rights to its charter. (Huma Yusuf, "Myopic approach," Dawn, 19 October 2020)

An editorial in Dawn says the PDM rallies, protests held against the killing of Maulana Adil, government employees' sit-in could all be superspreader events as people angry at the economic crisis are willing to flout Covid-19 SOPs. The editorial says the situation will deteriorate if political leaders continue to ignore the virus threat; the positivity rate is the highest since August and health workers are under pressure. It suggests the government engage with the Opposition for the greater public good. ("Superspreader protests," Dawn, 19 October 2020)

In Brief
INTERNAL
Woman, daughter killed for honour in Karachi
On 18 October, Hazrat Bibi (35) and her daughter (18) were allegedly murdered in the name of honour in Karachi's Sher Shah area. According to the police, Bibi's husband Abdur Razzak along with his son and his brother are the culprits. ("Mother, daughter killed for 'honour', The News International, 19 October 2020)

Editorial hopeful about TikTok ban reversal
An editorial in The Nation says negotiations by TikTok's management, a petition filed against the ban in the IHC, and pushback from several segments of civil society are hopeful signs that the ban might be reversed. It says TikTok's willingness to negotiate despite the government's failure to notify them is appreciable. It highlights that such bans may discourage future investors and says any ban must be thought out and reasons behind banning should be explained to investors and people likely to be impacted. ("Reconsidering The Ban," The Nation, 19 October 2020)

Editorial says accountability in PIA is necessary
An editorial in The Nation says the FIA's arrest of the former MD and other officials of the PIA has pushed the way for accountability in the PIA. The editorial says "illegal appointments, unreliable certifications, extravagant unearned salaries and perks made PIA incompetent and blacklisted by several international airports. It says the recent arrests may be a part of the government's strategy to "restructure the PIA" and it is welcome; otherwise, PIA employees may have to see the institution get privatised. ("Restructuring PIA," The Nation, 19 October 2020)

Qureshi's statement on Saudi Arabia 
On 18 October, Qureshi said Pakistan's relations with Saudi Arabia are long-lasting and friendly. He said Bilawal Bhutto should clear misunderstandings he has regarding Pakistan's relations with Saudi Arabia. Further, he said the PDM was an "untimely, unnatural and non-ideological alliance." Qureshi said the PDM leaders are apprehensive that they could be convicted in cases against them and get them eliminated from politics. He said the PDM's anti-army agenda could not convince the people and Bilawal was promoting India's agenda and was unaware of the Kashmir issue. (Shakeel Ahmed, "Ties with Saudi Arabia long-lasting, friendly: Qureshi," Dawn, 19 October 2020)

EXTERNAL
Imran wishes Azerbaijan 
On 18 October, Imran Khan wished the President and people of Azerbaijan on their Independence Day. In a tweet, he said Pakistan pays tributes to the Azeri forces defending their territory. He said he supports Azerbaijan to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh issue as per UNSC resolutions. ("PM Imran greets Azerbaijan on Independence Day," The News International, 19 October 2020)

PAKISTAN'S WORLD VIEW 
American elections and possible chaos
Maleeha Lodhi's opinion column in Dawn highlights possible uncertainties and threats as the American elections are closing in. Maleeha says if the result is a narrow one, legal battles may ensue and could go to the US Supreme Court leaving the country in limbo. She says any significant difference in the popular vote and the electoral vote may serve to delegitimise the election for supporters of either candidate. She says though the above scenarios have taken place before, how they pan out in the current environment is difficult to predict. Further, vigilantes and white supremacy extremists can provoke election chaos. (Maleeha Lodhi, "Election turbulence in America," Dawn, 19 October 2020)

ON INDIA
Opinion article says bridge internal fault lines to win the war with India
An opinion article in The News International says that India in its Hindutva pursuit has four options with regard to Pakistan: a long-drawn war of attrition in line with the 'Sundarji doctrine," a limited war with small territorial gains to be used as bargaining tool, tactical-level actions like cross-border projection of power behind Pakistani defence lines or a surrogate war by soft power, cyber-warfare and proxy forces. The author says while the first three options have limitations, Ajit Doval is pushing for surrogate warfare. This has six elements: diplomatic isolation, internal delegitimization, leveraging the subversive power of cyberspace through media, delegitimizing Kashmiris' right for self-determination, exploiting existing fault-lines by funding the Pakistani Taliban and Baloch separatists, and cyber-sabotage/espionage. The author says to win the surrogate war, Pakistan has to bridge its internal fault lines and build a genuine democratic order. (Rashid Mahmood Langrial, "Modi's war calculus," The News International, 19 October 2020)

ON PAKISTAN-OCCUPIED KASHMIR
Masood Khan says, "we want accession of the whole of Kashmir to Pakistan"  
On 16 October, "AJK" President Sardar Masood Khan said: "We want accession of the whole of Kashmir to Pakistan and this will be decided by the people of Jammu and Kashmir collectively." He said Kashmir was disintegrated by India which "released fake maps showing Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan as parts of India." He said despite political differences, all parties in Pakistan stood united for the Kashmir cause but parties of GB have a different stand on this issue. He urged all stakeholders to sit together to make any decision about the region's future. ("AJK president stresses need for dialogue between AJK, G-B leadership," The Express Tribune, 16 October 2020)

Opposition endorses India's ambitions says Parliament Special Committee Chairman
On 13 October, Parliament's Special Committee Chairman accused the Opposition of furthering the Indian agenda of conspiring to create unrest in Pakistan in the name of religion, sect and ethnicity. He said the Opposition was ignorant for not raising important issues in the Parliament including the Kashmir issue. Speaking on Balochistan, he said Imran Khan had taken important steps to protect underdeveloped areas of the province and said "Balochistan is a bouquet of flowers which reflects the true picture of Pakistani society." ("Afridi accuses opposition of furthering Indian agenda," Dawn, 14 October 2020)

In Brief
INTERNAL 
Editorial says the JUI-F's street force will be a major player in the coming days
An editorial in The News International talks about the role of street power and the government's handling of the developments as the PDM's rally is just two days away. The editorial says the JUI-F's street force will be a major player in the coming days. It highlights that the PML-N does not have a history of street power and the PPP will struggle to mobilise masses, especially outside Sindh. It conveys that in the light of a crippling economy if the government can accept criticism and the public's anger with grace, it would gain a lot. While no negotiations between the government and the Opposition have been held till now, it is yet to be seen if the government's confidence will wane as the rally closes in. ("Showdown time," The News International, 14 October 2020)

ECONOMY 
IMF projects one per cent growth rate for Pakistan
On 13 October, the IMF projected Pakistan's growth rate at one per cent in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2020 report. This is in sharp contrast with the government's target of a 2.1 per cent growth rate. The WEO estimated an average inflation rate at 8.8 per cent, current account deficit at 2.5 per cent of GDP and unemployment rising by 0.6 per cent to 5.1 per cent during FY21. It noted that recovery had taken root in the third quarter of 2020 and was expected to strengthen gradually over 2021. ("IMF forecasts 1pc growth, rising unemployment," Dawn, 14 October 2020)

In Focus
Pakistan and the FATF's Grey List:
Asia-Pacific Group retains Pakistan on its "Enhanced Follow-Up" list

On 25 September, the Asia-Pacific Group on Money Laundering (APG) a regional affiliate of the Paris-based FATF has decided to keep Pakistan on its "Enhanced (expedited) follow-up" list for minimum progress on technical recommendations of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The first Follow-Up Report (FUR) on Mutual Evaluation of Pakistan released by APG showed that the country was improving its full compliance on two of the 40 FATF recommendations on the effectiveness of anti-money laundering and combating financing terror (AML/CFT) system. The report stated that "Pakistan will remain in enhanced (expedited) follow up, and will continue to report back to the APG on progress to strengthen its implementation of AML/CFT measures." (Khaleeq Kiani, "Asia-Pacific Group keeps Pakistan on enhanced follow-up list," Dawn, 12 October 2020)

Pakistan's progress largely remains unchanged
The report states that although Pakistan's progress largely remained unchanged, it remains non-compliant on four counts, partially compliant on 25 counts and largely compliant on nine recommendations. However, overall progress was made in addressing the technical compliance deficiencies, identified in its mutual evaluation report and has been re-rated on one recommendation.

Based on the progress, Recommendation 29 has been re-rated to 'compliant'. While progress has been made on Recommendation 1, it is insufficient to justify a re-rating. The analysis and rating for Recommendation 6 are subject to a major disagreement and consistent with the APG Mutual Evaluation procedures, consideration of this Recommendation has been referred for in-session discussion at the next APG Plenary meeting and is not considered in this report. ("1st Follow-Up Report Mutual Evaluation of Pakistan," Asia-Pacific Group on Money Laundering, 25 September 2020)

APG Report has no immediate bearing on the upcoming FATF assessment 
Although the APG report comes a couple of weeks before the FATF's virtual review meeting which is scheduled to be held from later this month there is no effect went it comes to assess if Pakistan should be kept or moved out of the grey list. The APG's performance review is based on the country's performance as of February 2020 on technical recommendations.

Recent developments
In the Mutual Evaluation Report which was published in October 2019, Pakistan was compliant on one, non-compliant on four, partially compliant on 26 and largely compliant on nine recommendations. The only change is on the one partially compliant recommendation to compliant status. Pakistan had requested for re-ratings on three areas declared partially compliant by the APG in October last year, however, the request was accepted on one count and rejected on two due to 'insufficient' progress to the satisfaction of international experts.

Later in August, the APG adopted its third Mutual Evaluation Report on Pakistan during the meetings in Canberra, Australia where it downgraded the country to "Enhanced Follow-up" category over technical deficiencies to meet normal international financial standards by October 2018. Following which the country has had to submit quarterly progress reports, instead of biannual, to the APG, to show improvements in its technical standards on AML/CFT.

Pakistan to be on FATF white list soon says FM Qureshi
On 10 October, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi while criticising the opposition and their failed attempts to thwart the FATF legislations stated that Pakistan would participate in the virtual meeting on the FATF to be held in Paris, adding that he hopes that Pakistan would be on the white list of the FATF soon. Further, he said America and some other countries would support Pakistan on FATF. ("Pakistan to be on FATF white list soon: FM Shah Mehmood Qureshi," The News International, 12 October 2020)

Editorials say FATF must take Pakistan off the grey list, however, Islamabad needs to step up its efforts
An editorial in the Nation while highlighting the country's effort and progress to contain money laundering and terrorist financial channels to counter extremist activity states that the FATF must look to this in its upcoming review process. Further, it states that Pakistan's inclusion in the grey list is a gross misrepresentation adding that the narrative of Pakistan being home to terrorists is at least a decade old. Thus, the FATF decision must reflect the reality of today adding that it must remove the country from its grey list. ("APG Report," The Nation, 13 October 2020)

An editorial in the Dawn states that although it is time for the world to commended Pakistan for its efforts and the willingness of the country's leadership to comply with the FATF's mandate, Islamabad needs to be more transparent and increase its efforts to create a stronger legal framework, which is at par with global AML/CFT standards and FATF requirements. By doing this, they would clear up concerns that some of the recent changes are meant to run down the opposition leadership rather than meet the FATF's demands. ("More progress needed," Dawn, 13 October 2020)

On 12 October, Prime Minister Imran Khan accepted retired Lt Gen Asim Saleem Bajwa's resignation from the additional post of special assistant to prime minister on information and broadcasting that he had submitted in September following allegations regarding his family's offshore businesses and assets. Bajwa will continue as the chairman of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Authority.

Quick recap
In August 2020, journalist Ahmed Noorani accused Bajwa of using his political portfolio to set up off-shore businesses for his family on a website. After remaining silent for over a week, Bajwa denied the allegations, stating they were "incorrect and false", and announced his decision to resign from the SAPM post. Opposition parties opined that Bajwa face the allegations and demanded his resignation through the 26-point declaration issued after the multiparty conference. The latter said he was ready to present all related documents before any judicial forum. 

Imran Khan had initially refused to accept Bajwa's resignation and relinquish him from the duties of the SAPM. PTI's official account had also quoted Imran expressing satisfaction with evidence provided by Bajwa regarding the assets and businesses.

Quotable
"I requested the honourable prime minister to relinquish me from the additional portfolio of SAPM on Info and broadcasting. He very kindly approved my request," Bajwa tweeted. ("Under-fire SAPM quits after resignation accepted," Dawn, 13 October 2020)
 

In Brief
INTERNAL 
PM terms Opposition a 'gang of dacoits'
On 12 October, Imran Khan directed the authorities concerned to allow the Pakistan Democratic Movement's public gathering on 16 October. According to Dawn's source, Imran called the Opposition alliance "a gang of dacoits" starting an anti-government campaign to hide its corruption. He also said the public would judge for themselves how 'strong' the opposition was. On the other hand, PML-N Information Secretary said Imran's statement of allowing the opposition to hold its public gathering was a "desperate attempt" to mask his embarrassment. Meanwhile, the Minister for Planning and Development appealed to the Opposition to avoid holding huge gatherings as Covid-19 cases are on the rise. ("'Gang of dacoits' out to hide its corruption, says Imran," Dawn, 13 October 2020)

Imran Khan warns of covid-19 surge in winter
On 12 October, Imran Khan said that from the facts and figures from different countries established that during the winter season, coronavirus infection could spread. He reiterated that provincial governments should take steps in that regard and devise a strategy. In his meeting with the NCOC, Imran noted that smart lockdown is being enforced in different areas of Karachi, Islamabad, and "Azad Jammu and Kashmir." ("Covid-19 may spread in winter, cautions PM," The Nation, 13 October 2020)

Opinion articles on the PDM and the Maulana
An opinion article in The News International says the PDM needs to have a pro-people agenda instead of just holding sustained campaigns against politicians and massive corruption which have damaged the reputation of national leaders. The author says people want to know if members of the PDM have concrete plans for economic revival or if they will also offer the panacea of privatization, liberalization and deregulation. He says people would want those who demand fair elections in the country to have the same in their own political parties, as well as a solemn pledge to devolve powers to local bodies and end dynastic politics. ("A pro-people agenda for PDM," The News International, 13 October 2020)

Another opinion article in The News International highlights that Maulana is an undisputed leader of the opposition today. The author says Maulana owns the street power and last year he successfully delivered a blow to the government when the rest of the Opposition was weak. The author says, provided other parties stay loyal to him, Maulana can deliver another blow to the government. The author says: "Maulana's madrassas are indestructible. There is no prison large enough to hold him and his followers. No political party can hurl defiance at the system the way he can. His crowd is the ulema – who can't be beaten and insulted like everyone else, and they can hit back at the government the way no other group can." ("The autumn of discontent," The News International, 13 October 2020)

ECONOMY
Remittances surpass September target
On 12 October, remittance inflows for September rose to $2.3 billion surpassing the $2 billion target. According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the figure is 31.2 per cent higher than September last year and 9 per cent higher than last month. Remittances from the UAE increased to $1.4 billion and from the UK to $985.5 million compared to $574.5 million in the corresponding period last year. According to analysts, remittances witnessed a consistent rise because of: the decline in the use of the unofficial hundi and hawala channels amid crackdown on illegal sources, and limited travel of overseas Pakistanis to the country due to pandemic brought in remittances mostly through legal sources. Analysts warned this may be a short term trend as expatriates may experience salary cuts and unemployment due to the pandemic. ("Remittances surpass target to reach at $2.3bln in Sept," The News International, 13 October 2020)

PAKISTAN'S WORLD VIEW
Editorial calls WFP a truly worthy Nobel Prize winner
An editorial in The News International says the World Food Programme is truly worthy of winning the Nobel Peace Prize as it draws the world's attention to hunger and needs to address it. The editorial says climate change, conflict and now the Covid-19 pandemic have made things even worse for people suffering from hunger. It highlights that while Pakistan has a surplus amount of wheat for most years, there has been a growth in hunger since 2018 because people do not have the cash to access this food. About 18 per cent of children under the age of five are severely malnourished, and 40 per cent suffer stunting or an inability to reach the expected height for their age. The editorial appreciates the WFP's role in Pakistan during the earthquake of 2008 in "Azad Kashmir" and KP. ("Food on the table," The News International, 13 October 2020)

Israel too deeply invested in Palestine
An opinion column in The Nation says that Israelis and Palestinians analysts are both "wildly wrong," in their commentaries. The author says Israelis consider the current scenarios as "beginning of the end of the Israeli-Arab conflict" and Palestinian commentators lament "the burying of Palestine." He says Israel may have had a chance to negotiate a just two-state solution after the Oslo and Arab Initiative but they chose to engulf the Palestinian nation. He says, while a two-state solution may not materialise now, Israel is deeply invested in the occupied lands to extricate themselves. Israel depends on the Palestinian Authority's cooperation for security and administrative matters and on Palestinian labour. He says, the Palestinians' demand for equal rights and justice may come as a slow and steady process but it will come. ("The future of Israel and Palestine," The Nation, 13 October 2020)

ON INDIA
Editorial says India hinders South Asia's growth
An editorial in Daily Times says that the political landscape of South Asia is changing. The editorial says China's planning and growth contributed to the revival of the region's ancient trade route and its relation with Pakistan helps shape this. It says the US and its relations with India are the spoilers in this scenario. In the course of containing China, the US is using India and India, in turn, hit the Chinese and also discredits Pakistan. The editorial urges Pakistan "keep their eye on the ball and make sure nothing interrupts BRI or the CPEC to defeat any form of propaganda." ("South Asia is changing," Daily Times, 13 October 2020)

India should consider a course correction: Pak Foreign Office
On 12 October, Pakistan rejected Rajanth Singh's "unwarranted and irresponsible" claims that Pakistan and China were deliberately creating border disputes with India. The Foreign Office spokesperson said Rajnath Singh's statement "demonstrates an inexcusable lack of self-awareness of RSS-BJP regime's self-serving narrative. It is also another manifestation of the Indian government's incurable obsession with Pakistan." He also condemned "the malicious Indian propaganda against the long-standing, close Pakistan-China friendship." He said instead of jeopardising regional peace and stability, by perpetrating state-terrorism to advance its extremist Hindutva ideology and expansionist Akhand Bharat designs, India should consider course correction and peacefully resolve disputes with neighbours. ("Indian allegation China-Pakistan creating border disputes rejected," Dawn, 13 October 2020)

In his latest analysis published in Dawn, Pervez Hoodbhoy writes "Successful societies know that those who fight wars well are not always best suited for running industries, academia, or government. Therefore, British military officers, whether serving or retired, are not given preferential treatment outside of their specific skills. It is broadly realised that men in uniform can be heroic fighters in wartime but in other situations they can be just as clueless and bureaucratic as their civilian counterparts."

According to Dawn, the World Bank in its latest South Asia Economic Focus report forecasts the worst ever recession in South Asia. For Pakistan, it projects an increase in poverty and uncertain economic recovery owing to Covid-19's adverse impacts over the upcoming two years. Pakistan's national economy has been severely skewed by the federal government's monetary and fiscal policy tightening followed by the pandemic-related SOPs and lockdowns. The report added that the highly uncertain projection depended upon the absence of significant infection peaks or subsequent pandemic waves that would consequently result in further lockdowns. ("WB sees poverty rise, muted recovery in Pakistan over two years," Dawn, 8 October 2020)

First real GDP growth contraction in decades
Dawn quotes the WB report "In Pakistan, economic growth is projected to remain below potential, at 0.5 per cent for FY21 compared to over 4pc annual average in the three years to FY2019". It further estimates the real GDP growth to have contracted for the first times in decades – a decline from 1.9 per cent in FY19 to -1.5 per cent in FY20. Pakistan's economic growth is expected to remain well below potential, averaging at 1.3 per cent for next two financial years.

Uncertain Projections
The report anticipated worsening of the economic crisis in the case of a resurgence of the pandemic, another locust attack or heavy monsoons. Although the economic activities are expected to resume in accordance with the lifting of the pandemic-related restrictions, "Pakistan's near-term economic prospects are subdued". It opines that uncertainty over the availability of a vaccine, call for measures to curb imbalances and unfavorable external conditions will affect Pakistan. It also considered external financing risks such as difficulties in bilateral debt from non-traditional donors and unfavorable international financing conditions. The report projects that the current account deficit will widen to an average of 1.5 per cent of GDP over FY21 and FY22; the fiscal deficit will narrow to 7.4 per cent in FY22; and that the consumer price inflation has risen from an average of 6.8 per cent in FY19 to an average of 10.7 per cent in FY20.

On South Asia
As per the report, South Asia will experience a sharper than expected economic slump. Regional growth may contract by 7.7 per cent in 2020. The region will plunge into its worst recession due to the lingering economic and other effects of the pandemic. This will push millions into extreme poverty by taking a disparate toll on informal workers. 

Quotable
Ahead of the report's launch, World Bank's vice president for the South Asia region Hartwig Schafer said "The collapse of South Asian economies during Covid-19 has been more brutal than anticipated, worst of all for small businesses and informal workers who suffer sudden job losses and vanishing wages." He explained that although WB did not publish Pakistan's poverty numbers for technical reasons, the poverty rate had peaked like other states in the region. The WB report said "Given anaemic growth projections in the near term, poverty is expected to worsen. Vulnerable households rely heavily on jobs in the services sector, and the projected weak services growth is likely to be insufficient to reverse the higher poverty rates precipitated by the pandemic".