In Brief

INTERNAL
PTI passes the finance bill for 2020-21 in National Assembly
The PTI's second budget was passed without any major problem on Monday (29 June) in the National Assembly. Early this month, the PTI government had presented a budget for 7.1 trillion rupees. There was a heated argument between the ruling coalition and the opposition members; however, the National Assembly passed the Finance Bill 2020-21 with a voice vote after the many debates and amendments. The government defeated the opposition with 160-119 votes at the time of passage of clause nine of the bill. Further, the opposition insisted on not having a vote at the final passage for it had been defeated during the clause-by-clause vote. (“After debates and amendments, NA passes Finance Bill 2020-21” Dawn, 29 June 2020)

Opposition on the Federal Budget 2020-21
A joint statement has been issued by all the opposition parties in Pakistan asking for the Prime Minister to resign. The opposition’s resolution brings five key causes and effects of the budget that is observed by the opposition as unhealthy to the economy of Pakistan and its people. Firstly, the fiscal crisis where the debts of the country have surged in two years which shows the misdirection of the funds and incompetent leadership risking the future. Secondly, the fall in GDP rate from 5.8 per cent to 0.4 per cent. The government has allowed foreign investors to earn billions through high-interest rates while it devalued the currency by 40 per cent and still reduced exports, leading to extreme poverty and unemployment. Thirdly, at the time of crisis, the health infrastructure has been tossed away and no special budget or funding has been allocated but the financing towards CPEC hasn’t reduced and the budget for the provinces seem worse than earlier years slimming the chances to cope with the virus. Fourthly, the government has only facilitated the capitalists to launder money through construction, schemes and taxes in a false hope to provide shelter for the poor. Finally, the use of powers such as NAB to silence the media and journalists in conveying the news to the public, the very example is the oppression of the Jang Group’s Chief Mir Shakil-ur-Rahman. (Asim Yasin, “Opposition rejects budget, demands PM’s resignation,” The News International, 29 June 2020)

PML-Q to back the government in the budget vote 
Although different exits between the ruling PTI and its ally Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), the party has decided to vote for the passage of the federal budget. The decision was made at a PML-Q meeting which was presided over by Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Pervaiz Elahi at their Zahoor Elahi Road residence. Further, the meeting discussed the ‘cold attitude’ of PM Khan towards the PML-Q. The PML-Q has five seats in the National Assembly and 10 in the Punjab Assembly. Earlier this year, the party warned that it may review its alliance with the PTI if its demands were not met. (Zulqernain Tahir, “Differences exist, but PML-Q will back govt in budget vote,” Dawn, 29 June 2020)

“The government will definitely complete its term”: PM 
On 28 June, PM Imran Khan hosted a dinner reception where he asserted that his government will complete its five-year term. Further, Imran Khan held separate meetings with the leaders of the government’s allies before the reception and assured them that all their demands would be fulfilled. Regarding the opposition's rejection, he said, “Some people give new date of ousting of the government with every passing day, but I assure you that we are going nowhere. Further adding that “The government will definitely complete its term.” However, three coalition partners, 14 PTI MNAs did not attend this dinner reception hosted by PM. (Syed Irfan Raza, “PTI govt will complete its term, PM assures allies,” Dawn, 29 June 2020)

Daniel Pearl case: SC to take up Sindh’s urgent hearing request today
On 29 June, the SC will take up Sindh provincial government’s plea for urgent hearing of the appeal filed by Sindh against the upending of Ahmed Omer Saeed Sheikh’s (and three others’) conviction for the kidnapping and murdering the slain Wall Street Journal (WSJ) chief Daniel Pearl by the Sindh High Court. As ordered by the SC during the hearing on 1 June, the Sindh government will furnish the entire case complete with evidence along with its appeal challenging the SHC verdict. Justice Munib Akhtar, Justice Mushir Alam and Justice Yahya Afridi will hear the appeal. (“SC to take up plea for urgent hearing of Pearl case today,” Dawn, 29 June 2020) 

Attack at the Pakistan Stock Exchange
On 29 June, an attack at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) killed a police sub-inspector and three security guards by at least four heavily armed militants, who are reported to have arrived in a sedan and attempted to storm the PSX compound from its parking side while firing and throwing grenades. All four militants were killed as the attack was been "successfully thwarted" said an Additional IG of police. Further, the bomb disposal squad has been called to search and clear the area. PM Imran Khan and the Chief Minister of Sindh have condemned the attack.  (“Pakistan Stock Exchange comes under gun and grenade attack; Rangers say all attackers killed,” The News International, 29 June 2020)

PTM to strive for peace and justice for Pakhtuns
In the recent encounter between the police and accused terrorists, the Pakhtuns of Irfanullah were killed. The Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM) chairman has promised to raise this issue and bring justice to the Pakhtun population. He stated that “PTM would always strive for peace and justice on the “Pakhtun soil.” (Ibrahim Shinwari, “PTM chief vows to continue raising voice for rights,” Dawn, 29 June 2020)

GB Legislative Assembly Elections to be on 18 Aug
As per the federal Ministry of Kashmir Affairs and Gilgit-Baltistan, President Dr Arif Alvi has approved Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly’s election schedule. On 18 August 2020, polls will be held. On completion of the assembly’s term, the Legislature was dissolved on 24 June. By the election laws, new members have to be elected within 60 days. The elections will be held by the GB Election Commission in its 24 constituencies. Minister for Kashmir Affairs and Gilgit-Baltistan Ali Ameen Gandapur said that peaceful free and fair elections is the government’s priority and voiced his concern that Covid-19 would make the elections a challenge. Meanwhile, former DIG of police Mir Afzal has taken oath as Gilgit-Baltistan’s caretaker chief minister. Today, the 12-member caretaker cabinet will take the oath. (“Elections for GB Legislative Assembly set for Aug 18,” Dawn, 29 June 2020)

ON INDIA
Afridi asks world to stop India from altering Kashmir’s demography
Shehryar Khan Afridi, the chairman of parliament’s special committee on Kashmir, while reacting to non-Kashmiri Indian citizens being granted domicile certificates of Kashmir, urged the international community to curb India from artificially inducing a demographic change in Kashmir and “diminish(ing) the Muslim majority”. Mr Afridi said the fascist Indian regime led by the racist RSS-Hindutva inspired supremacist Modi government was exploiting the shifting of global attention onto the coronavirus pandemic and that India was illegally altering Kashmir’s demography while violating international laws and the 4th Geneva Convention. (“Afridi urges world to stop India from changing held Kashmir’s demography,” Dawn, 29 June 2020)

Pakistan claims to shoot a spy drone from India
The military media wing of Pakistan reported that it had shot down a spy drone of India in the militarized zone of Pakistan occupied Kashmir. It is said that the drones have been used to spectate the Pakistan army post and civilian areas to gather intelligence. According to the chief “Pakistan army troops shot down an Indian spying quadcopter in the Hot Spring sector along LoC. The quadcopter had intruded 850 metres on the Pakistani side of the LoC” (Tariq Naqash, “Army shoots down Indian spy drone along LoC,” Dawn, 29 June 2020)

The India-China border dispute will bring the US closer to India
The border skirmishes between China and India has led to the killing of many Indian soldiers at the Galwan valley. It is reasoned that the recent military developments of India in the valley has triggered China to cause the disturbance and this event exactly represents the 1962 war but the trade relations between the two countries do not stand the same. The trade has enormously expanded from $3 billion to $95 billion and the deficit favours $60 billion to China. Hence using the historical strategy of India which is Patriotism to boycott the good of China is too far to achieve. This has resulted in drawing the US closer to India as the cold war between the US and China persists. As a way to settle the conflict the US has made India sign for a quasi-defence pact, but India must ensure that it does not get tangled between the two powers considering its economic position and health crisis. (Shahid Javed Burki, “As China-India relations remain unsettled,” The Express Tribune, 29 June 2020)

"Some people give new date of ousting of the government with every passing day, but I assure you that we are going nowhere...The government will definitely complete its term." - Imran Khan (Dawn)

PTI-PTM Dialogue An olive branch to the PTM: Will the PTI heed to the Pashtun rights movement? By Abigail Miriam Fernandez Click here to read Pakistan This Week The Split within the PTI and the US State Department’s Annual Report on Terrorism By D. Suba Chandran Click here to read

The US State Department Annual Report on Terrorism: Pakistan continues to serve "as a safe haven for certain regionally focused terrorist groups”

The annual report of the US Department of State on Terrorism presents a mixed case on what Pakistan has achieved in fighting terrorism.
 
First, the report was critical on Pakistan’s efforts to curb the activities of terrorist groups fighting in Pakistan’s neighbourhood. The report makes two specific points on Pakistan’s efforts relating to the same. First, Pakistan “allowed groups targeting Afghanistan, including the Afghan Taliban and affiliated HQN, as well as groups targeting India, including LeT and its affiliated front organizations, and JeM, to operate from its territory.” Second, Pakistan “took modest steps in 2019 to counter terror financing and to restrain some India-focused militant groups following the February attack on a security convoy in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir claimed by Pakistan-based JeM.”
 
The report’s conclusion is:  “Islamabad has yet to take decisive actions against Indian- and Afghanistan-focused militants who would undermine their operational capability.”
 
Second, the report, however, is appreciative of Pakistan's role in helping the US regarding the Afghan Taliban. The report says: “The Pakistani government also played a constructive role in U.S.-Taliban talks in 2019.”
 
Finally, the report on Pakistan’s response to fulfilling the FATF requirements. According to the report, “Pakistan made some progress toward meeting the action plan requirements for the FATF, allowing it to avoid being blacklisted, but did not complete all action plan items.  In early 2019, Pakistan issued, inter alia, a statutory regulatory ordinance directing the immediate implementation of sanctions against individuals and entities designated under UNSCR 1267.  In October 2019, APG published a Mutual Evaluation Report that reviewed Pakistan's compliance with FATF standards and the effectiveness of Pakistan's AML/CFT system.”

The rift within the PTI
Following the interview of the federal Minister for Science and Technology Fawad Chaudhry, the debate over the infighting within the PTI was raging within the party and outside it. The interview to the Voice of America, now available at the Youtube, have kickstarted the latest round of debate over the fault lines within the PTI. While Fawad Chaudhry is being blamed for his interview, there is no denying the fact about the PTI infighting.
 
The earlier debate, during the recent week, was over the exit of Jahangir Tareen. According to Fawad Chaudhry, the difference within the PTI amongst Tareen, Asad Umar and Qureshi were strong, leading to multiple groups.
 
According to reports from Pakistani media, Asad Umar, the former Finance Minister was removed from his position because of Tareen. And now, Umar has got Tareen out.
 
The differences within the PTI has a long history and would amplify its growth, from a single leader (Imran Khan) who could not win a single election in his early career, to where he and his party is today. The PTI was not built in a single day, and not by Imran Khan alone. There was help from outside, especially the Deep State. While there was a core within the PTI leadership, that stayed with Imran from the beginning, the rest of them came to him at the last stage before the 2018 elections. Some of them have been asked to go by the Deep State, and some found it an option when they realized the newfound background support to the PTI. So a group of leaders, who joined the PTI on the even of 2018 elections did so, not because they believed the party or in Imran Khan, but they saw what was written on the electoral wall.
 
Then came the debate about the “electable” in which Imran gave tickets knowing their background. But the primary criteria was whether he or she would get Imran a seat. As an ambitious leader, who wanted to form the government following the 2018 elections, he allocated seats who will win than who were loyal to the party and him.
 
There was bound to be a difference between those who were staying with Imran from the beginning, and those who joined during 2016-18.
 
Then came the third wave, post-elections and post-government formation. The introduction of the Specialists – either on Imran's own conviction, or suggested by the Deep State, has been a major cause of friction between the elected leaders and the selected ones. Those in the first two categories are united in opposition to the third.
 
The fourth – the bureaucrats. One of the primary problems for the PTI in Punjab is over the power enjoyed by the bureaucrats than the elected leaders of the PTI or the party members. The latter want to have more powers, and want to be seen as the power centres, and distribute the developmental funds through them.
 
Finally, the coalition members, another reason for the PTI's heartburn in Punjab. The PML-Q led by the Chaudhrys demand a huge pound of PTI flesh for their support to the federal government and more importantly, the PTI government in Punjab province. 
 
So, will the party split? No. From Jahangir Tareen to Asad Umar – they would know they do not have a future outside the PTI and Imran Khan. Leaders like Shah Mehmood Qureshi (Foreign Minister) and Sheikh Rashid Ahmad (Railway Minister) have served under different Prime Ministers and affiliated with different parties; on their own, they may not rise any further than what they are.
 

Also in the News, during the week...

Imran Khan calls Osama bin Laden a martyr in Parliament. While addressing the Parliament, Imran Khan on 26 June made a controversial statement that was criticized by the Opposition on Osama bin Laden. He was quoted to have stated that the US came to Abbottabad and martyred Osama bin Laden heaping humiliation on Pakistan.
 
Imran promises to raise the Kashmir issue at the global level on 5 August. In a meeting held in Muzafarabad, the Prime Minister of Pakistan stated: “There will be a movement across the globe on 5 August and afterwards to remind the world community of what's happening in Indian occupied Kashmir…We will make full preparations before 5 August with the involvement of Pakistanis and Kashmiris living anywhere across the globe.”
 
Chief Justice of Pakistan Gulzar Ahmad criticizes the State for failing to provide basic facilities to its citizens. In suo motu case on the measures taken by the federal and provincial governments to address the COVID-19, the Chief Justice, heading a five-judge Supreme Court bench asked, “why sho­uld people listen to the government in the absence of basic amenities like water, health, education, employment and now 18-hour-long loadshedding when factories are closed.”
 
Pakistan wants to extradite Altaf Hussain from the United Kingdom. The previous week, one of the Anti-Terrorism Courts in Pakistan has convicted three from the MQM with a life sentence for murdering Imran Farooq, another MQM leader. The latter was killed in London in 2010. The ATC could make the decision based on the testimony from the British police in the court in Pakistan.
 
On Monday, Imran Khan repeated his position on the lockdown, making it clear that it was not his idea. He was quoted to have stated: “I’d have never endorsed lockdown had provinces asked.”

Pakistan is ready to reopen Kartarpur Sahib Corridor, says Shah Mahmood Qureshi. In a tweet, he wrote: "As places of worship open up across the world, Pakistan prepares to reopen the Kartarpur Sahib Corridor for all Sikh pilgrims, conveying to the Indian side our readiness to reopen the corridor on 29 June 2020, the occasion of the death anniversary of Maharaja Ranjeet Singh."
 
Following the report on the crash of Pakistan Airlines PK 8303, the government decides to take action on pilots with dubious licences. According to a report in Dawn, due to fake degrees, 648 Pakistan International Airlines employees had been dismissed from service since 2006, that included 119 cabin crew, 16 cockpit crew, 98 were employees of the engineering department and 415 of general administration.
 
According to the National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC), the number of COVID-19 cases has been declining every day during the last few days, despite 4,000 to 5,000 cases being reported daily.

In Brief

INTERNAL
PTM accepts the Government's dialogue offer, but wants CBMs
The Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM) chief has said that PTM is ready to bring out the problems of issues of Pashtun, but if they weren't met, it would lead to protests. One of the MNA stated that there had been a shift in the State policy for peace and development. As the economy is at the State of collapse, only peace can restore the economy. According to another MNA, people in the tribal districts lack education, healthcare and communication infrastructure facilities and it was high time the leaders did something than engaging in conflict. The chief necessitated that Government must build "confidence-building measures (CBMs) to demonstrate their sincerity" (Iftikhar A. Khan, "PTM says ready for talks but calls for confidence-building measures," Dawn, 27 June 2020)

Foreign Office states that Pakistan's case was not taken up at the FATF meeting
On 26 June, the Foreign Office stated that Pakistan's case was not taken up at the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) plenary meeting which was held 24 June and that it would remain on the 'grey list' till October, further stating that no new decision was made. At the last plenary meeting, Pakistan was given a six-month extension which was until June 2020 to remain on the grey list in order to meet the remaining requirements of its action plan, however with a warning that action would be taken if significant progress was not shown especially in prosecuting and penalising terrorism financing cases. At the next plenary cycle in October, the FATF will evaluate the progress of Pakistan on the Action Plan. Further, the FO said, "Pakistan remains committed to completing its FATF Action Plan and continues to make progress." Pakistan has been on the grey list since June 2018. ("Pakistan's case not taken up at FATF meeting: FO," Dawn, 27 June 2020)

"Any onslaught on judicial independence must be resisted": Analysis
The author Ziaullah Ranjah says judges' accountability must be in accordance with the law. He says that in Justice Isa's case, the context must be appreciated before understanding and applying the law. He questions the ability of FBR to conduct an independent enquiry considering the lack of institutional independence, the reference's malicious background and the ruling Government's dismissal of sane advice. ("Independence of judiciary," The Friday Times, 26 June 2020)

Federal cabinet to decide the fate of pilots with "dubious licences"
On 26 June, the Aviation Minister announced that the federal cabinet will decide the fate of 28 commercial pilots for having 'dubious licences' after an enquiry was made into the matter, the minister also stated that criminal proceedings would be initiated against them after the cabinet decision. Further, the minister added that 262 pilots had been indicted by a board of inquiry for on the ground of faking their test results; thus they will also be barred from flying. The minister also announced the suspension of five Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) officials associated with its licensing branch, who were suspended after an inquiry and on consultation with the law department the case may be referred over to the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) for criminal proceedings against them. Further, the minister stated "The clean-up operation was necessary in the airline. It all happened only due to out-of-merit appointments." (Mohammad Asghar, "Cabinet to decide fate of pilots with dubious licences," Dawn, 27 June 2020)

ECONOMY
The Government has coped to appease the oil marketing companies (OMCs)
The prices of petrol should have been lower at this point of economic crisis and pandemic, but instead, the prices are at hike this was due to the fear of loss in inventory for the OMCs. Even though the supply crisis was present, the Government did not take any measure to lower the prices. The petroleum division PSO survived the loss of Rs17 billion by selling the products outside the country at low rates, but the private OMCs did not share in the losses and kept on hoarding. This price hike has raised complaints from the opposition leaders, and the Chairman of PPP has said that this surge in petrol prices will result in Inflation in the country. (Israr Khan, "Record hike in petroleum prices," The News International, 27 June 2020)

ON INDIA
Will raise the Kashmir issue before the world on 5 August: PM
At a ceremony in Muzafarabad, PM Imran Khan stated that Pakistan would vigorously raise the Kashmir issue before the world on 5 August to push for the settlement once again. He added "There will be a movement across the globe on 5 August and afterwards to remind the world community of what's happening in Indian occupied Kashmir," further adding that preparation will be made in advance with the help of Pakistanis and Kashmiris living all over the world. These statements came in view of Article 370 being repealed by the Government of India on 5 August last year.  (Tariq Naqash, "Kashmir issue to be raised before world on 5 August: Imran," Dawn, 27 June 2020)

India is a bigger challenge than Covid-19 for South Asia: Analysis
An analysis by Ejaz Haider slams the Modi-led BJP government in India for social ostracization, economic isolation and persecution of Muslims, citing the incidents of "Cow vigilantism, Ghar Waapsi converting Muslims to Hinduism), and Love Jihad (lynching Muslims for marrying any Hindu girl)". The article says the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) aim to "identify, isolate and persecute Muslims". Haider criticizes the Blob of not acknowledging the rights conditions in India and considering India as a strategic partner and market with great potential. ("India: the Reality and the Blob," The Friday Times, 26 June 2020)

Pandemic shows shortfalls in India's health sector
An analysis says that India's health sector is chronically underfunded and that Covid-19 has overburdened government hospitals. It says the pandemic has put India's shortcomings on display: poor sanitation and hygiene protocols, steeping daily expenses for coronavirus treatment, the rich-poor socio-economic divides, lack of accessibility and Government's incompetency were mentioned with cases. ("Corona care exposes India's entrenched social inequalities," The News International, 27 June 2020) 

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez and A Padmashree.

The latest Annual Country Report on Terrorism for 2019 released by the US State Department's, states that Pakistan continues to serve as a safe haven for certain regionally-focused terrorist groups. ("Country Reports on Terrorism 2019: Pakistan," US Department of State) Critical of the situation in the country, the report further states groups targeting Afghanistan and India, in particular, have been allowed to operate from its territory. Further, in 2019, the country was re-designated as a "Country of Particular Concern" (CPC) under the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998. However, although the country witnessed significant terrorist threats in 2019, the number of attacks and casualties was lower than in 2018, continuing an overall year-on-year decline.  

On legislative measures implemented to counter-terrorism
The report highlights the various measure taken by the state to counter terror financing and regional militant groups. The government continued to implement the Antiterrorism Act of 1997, the National Counterterrorism Authority (NACTA) Act, the 2014 Investigation for Fair Trial Act, and 2014 amendments to the Anti-terrorism Act (ATA) which allow the law enforcers and courts an upper hand in terrorism cases. Further, through the International Border Management Security Systems biometric information has been collected at land crossings. To address smuggling by air, "the Customs Service attempted to enforce anti-money laundering laws and foreign exchange regulations at all major airports, in coordination with other agencies. Customs managed the entry of dual-use chemicals for legitimate purposes through end-use verification, while also attempting to prevent their diversion for use in IEDs." Further, the military, paramilitary, and civilian security forces conducted counter-terrorism operations throughout Pakistan against anti-state militants, further "Pakistani law allows for preventive detention, permits the death penalty for terrorism offenses, and authorizes special Anti-Terrorism Courts to try terrorism cases."

"Some progress" towards meetings the FATF requirement
According to the report, "In 2019, Pakistan made some progress toward meeting the action plan requirements for the FATF, allowing it to avoid being blacklisted," however not all the actions plans were completed. Further, the government initiated five de-radicalization camps which offered corrective religious education, vocational training, counselling, and therapy. However, reports claim that there remain some madrassas who continued to teach "extremist" doctrine. The National Action Plan directed increased governmental supervision of madrassas, and evidence shows that there have been continuous government efforts to increase regulation.

Having been under the grey list of the FATF since 2018, the report stated: "the organisation expressed serious concern at its October 2019 plenary about Pakistan's continued deficiencies but noted it had made some progress and extended the deadline for full Action Plan implementation to February 2020."

"Yet to take decisive actions against Indian and Afghanistan focused militants"
According to the report, "Islamabad has yet to take decisive actions against Indian and Afghanistan focused militants who would undermine their operational capability." The government of Pakistan has also been unable to fulfil aspects of its 2015 National Action Plan to counter-terrorism, especially concerning its pledge to dismantle all terrorist organizations without delay and discrimination. Further, terrorist leaders such as JeM founder Masood Azhar and Sajid Mir believed to under the protection of the state, despite government denials have still not been prosecuted. Further, separatist militant groups conducted terrorist attacks against varied targets in Balochistan and Sindh provinces have not been managed.
 

Pakistan's Response to the report
The US has undermined the counter-terrorism efforts of Pakistan says the Foreign Office
The Foreign Office has objected to the report released by the US State Department. In the report, it is given that Pakistan has allowed its territory to be the home for many terrorist organisations that pose a threat to other countries such as Jaish-e-Mohammed and Masood Azhar who is an UN-designated terrorist. The FO has countered that it has not permitted such groups to function and it does not have any intention to harm any country. it is also believed that Pakistan faces external threat from terrorist groups within, also the spokesperson regretted that there was no mention about its counter-terrorism effort towards Al Qaeda in the report by the US. In the case of Intra-Afghan dialogue, the FO indicated that they hope for the release of prisoners will happen as per the US-Taliban Peace agreement. (Baqir Sajjad Syed, "FO rejects US report on terrorism," Dawn, 26 June 2020)

Imran Khan addressing the Parliament, calls Osama bin Laden a martyr. Source: Dawn

In Brief

INTERNAL
PM Khan talks about the "martyrdom" of Osama bin Laden
On 25 June, Prime Minister Imran Khan, speaking in the National Assembly, called the PTI government's policies the best in the history of Pakistan. He cited the winning of US trust and restoring of the country's dented image as vindications. The PM recalled global criticism and humiliation faced by Pakistan after the "killing, martyrdom" of Osama in the US-led war on terror, despite supporting the US and losing 70,000 Pakistani soldiers. Mr Khan said that under PTI, there was better clarity regarding friends and foes, and policy structures and their implementation. He drew examples of India-Pakistan relations, the Kashmir dispute and the Afghan peace process. PM Imran Khan also called his Indian counterpart PM Modi a fanatic who massacred Muslims in Gujarat and persecuted minorities under the Hindutva ideology inspired by RSS. ("Americans' killed, martyred' Osama: No confusion, contradictions in my policies, says PM," The News International, 26 June 2020)

Opposition condemns PM calling Osama bin-Laden a 'martyr'
PML-N Parliamentary leader Khwaja Asif and PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari responded to PM Khan's National Assembly speech, on 25 June, by challenging him to a debate on PTI's policies. The Opposition strongly criticised the PM calling Osama a "martyr" and said the speech was meant for someone else. The statement will not go unnoticed by international media. ("Opp slams PM for calling Osama' martyr'," The News International, 26 June 2020)

IATA calls Pak pilot licence irregularities a 'serious lapse'
On 25 June, global airlines body IATA said irregularities in Pakistan International Airlines' (PIA) pilot licences show a "serious lapse in the licensing and safety oversight by the aviation regulator". According to PIA, Pakistan's Civil Aviation Authority has identified over 150 out of PIA's 434 pilots as possessing "dubious licences". The inquiry that followed the PIA crash which killed 97 people in May has found out the lack of procedure compliance by pilots. Presently PIA has 31 aircrafts and over 14,500 employees. The "serious lapse" has received widespread global media coverage: CNN said "Almost 1 in 3 pilots in Pakistan have fake licenses", while Al Jazeera, German media outlet Deutsche Welle, Telegraph, Washington Post and UK's Guardian ran headlines of Pakistan "grounding" the cheating pilots. ("Pak pilot licence irregularities are 'serious lapse': IATA," The News International, 26 June 2020)

Gulzar Ahmed questions the functioning of the government at the time of crisis
The Chief Justice of Pakistan has claimed that in the political discourse the rights of the citizens have been ignored by the government. The surge in prices of basic commodities such as sugar, oil along with medical supplies including Oximeter and Dettol have worsened the living conditions of the people in Pakistan and complained that the Prime Minister making statements to meet these will not meet the problems. Apart from this the Justice also questioned the use of budget by the Sindh government for importing luxury vehicles was not justifiable when the government did not have funds to pay its sanitary workers and also accused that no development schemes have been made for citizens in Karachi. ("Social contract between State, subjects not being complied with: CJP," Dawn, 26 June 2020)

Dawn's editorial on the Air crash report raises further questions
In the recent crash landing of PK-8303, the preliminary report states that the engine was damaged in the attempt of belly landing and the pilot's decision to go around did not work resulting in the crash. The editorial raises three key questions from the incident for further investigation. Firstly, when the ATC team asked the flight crew twice to discontinue the landing approach, why wasn't it followed by the pilots. Secondly, the contact of the engines to the runway was noticed by the ATC, but why did they fail to convey that to the aircraft team. Thirdly, why was the landing gear applied at 2,220m initially to withdraw back at 530m by the pilots. It is expected that the final report will bring out answers for the mentioned questions. ("Air crash report," Dawn, 26 June 2020)

COVID-19
Dawn wants to be cautiously optimistic about COVID figures in Pakistan
The National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC) has reported that the count of cases per day falls between 4,000 to 5,000 which differs from the mid-June projections that were 5,000 to 7,000. As the government is at the urge to announce the reduction in rates, the editorial states that it is very unrealistic as there has been a reduction in the testing from the range of 18 to 22 per cent to 16 to 20 per cent. Thereby it does not reflect the actual impact nor the actual remedy but ends by asking for an increase in the testing of the people to confirm the reduction which seems very tactical. ("Premature optimism," Dawn, 26 June 2020)

CPEC
The ECC approves three hydropower projects under CPEC
The Economic Coordination Committee on Thursday has approved the Kohala, Azad Pattan and Mahl Hydropower projects that will be implemented by Chinese companies. The project is estimated for a worth of 5 billion dollars and is expected to produce 2,646MW energy in total. It will also be covered under 2002 power policy incentives with revised security package. (Khaleeq Kiani, "Three Chinese hydel projects get ECC approval after a one year wait," Dawn, 26 June 2020)

ON INDIA
An Express Tribune Opinion says India has a "confused perception of its global position"
An opinion article in The Express Tribune on 26 June by Durdana Najam, said India has assumptions of economically and militarily overpowering its neighbours. The article uses Doklum, Balakot and Ladakh to sketch the persisting storyline of "aggression, standoff, and submission". Najam says that India's global image is dwindling with every skirmish. The author blames the ruling BJP's right-wing extremist narrative and India's oversized military expenditure for regional unrest. Najam further lists three lessons for India to learn from the ongoing Ladakh issue: first, to reset relations with neighbours; second, "India's negative political energy directed either towards China or Pakistan has been a costly venture"; and last, "India is clinging to a false sense of stability and security". ("India's false sense of security and stability," The Express Tribune, 25 June 2020)

India-Pak diplomatic spat
An editorial in the Express Tribune says the tit-for-tat diplomatic ejections were mostly for saving PM Modi's face and for India's domestic audience who were stressed after the hit-and-run incident by Indian diplomats in Islamabad and the escalating Ladakh crisis. The article blames India of misconstruing facts and wrongly accusing Pakistan of detaining the "reckless drivers" and says that although the diplomatic expulsions will not have severe effects, the "scapegoating sets a terrible precedent". ("Diplomatic dispute," The Express Tribune, 25 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez and A Padmashree.

In Brief

COVID-19
Cases on a decline for the last five days
Data released by the National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC) reported that the number of cases has been declining over the past few days. An official of the National Institute of Health stated that the trend could be an outcome of smart lockdowns or could be the possible move toward herd immunity. However, there is still a concern as the number of deaths may increase, for 90 per cent of the patients on ventilators are not likely to survive. Further, the official commented on the reducing number of tests that were being conducted as well as the declining number of positive tests. Further, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister (SAPM) on Health stated that although the data spoke for itself, it was still too early to talk about it. (Ikram Junaidi, "Glimmer of hope as number of cases goes down slightly," Dawn, 25 June 2020)

INTERNAL
Pakistan to extradite Altaf Hussain
The Anti-terrorism court (ATC) had passed a judgement to imprison three accused criminals and issued a lifetime warrant for the MQM founder for the murder of Mutahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) leader. Therefore, the federal government will be sending a letter from the Attorney General to Britain to extradite the founder of MQM and others involved in the murder case. ("Imran Farooq murder case: Govt to go for repatriation of MQM founder, others," The News International, 25 June 2020)

Pakistan to comply with 13 conditions of FATF to exit the grey list
Pakistan became part of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list in 2018 with a total of 27 conditions and till now 14 such conditions have been met. This year the FATF has extended the deadline to October 2020 to comply with the remaining conditions. It has laid its focus on the amendments related to Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) and Anti Money Laundering (AML) which is yet to be decided as separate legislation by the government. Only upon the meeting of the conditions, Pakistan will be excluded from the grey list of FATF. In regards to this, the Minister of Industries has stated in the budget speech that "Our government has put in unprecedented efforts at all levels to improve its AML/CFT regime to meet the requirements of the FATF Action Plan and a comprehensive process of legislative, technical and operational improvements has been initiated." (Mehtab Haider, "To comply with FATF conditions: Pakistan needs to amend foreign exchange laws within 3 months," The News International, 25 June 2020)

150 pilots to be grounded for dubious licences: PIA
The minister for Aviation revealed that a large number of commercial pilots possessed 'dubious licences.' Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) spokesperson stated that about 150 pilots are to be grounded on these bases. The PIA management has written to the Civil Aviation Authority to provided the list of other pilots with similar licences stating that those found at fault will be terminated from service. Further, the spokesperson stated that some flights may be cancelled due to this process, however, asserting that safety takes precedence over commercial interests and only pilots with perfect service records and clear credentials will be allowed to operate flights. Additionally, to ensure safety a Flight Data Monitoring Unit has also been established through which the PIA will measure, analyse and identify trends of PIA flights network-wide to look for corrections or preventative measures based on international established commercial aviation standards. ("PIA to ground 150 pilots with 'dubious licences'," Dawn, 25 June 2020)

Dawn editorial on media freedom
In the property case, editor-in-chief of the Jang group was arrested in March by NAB and has appeared twice to answer the questions in the last five hearings, but every hearing has been adjourned or postponed due to petty reasons. This gives a message that "All manner of outrageous accusations, including treason, have been levelled at journalists for doing their duty." It also shows that organisations like NAB have the power to bring restraints to the functioning of the media. ("Unjustified detention," Dawn, 25 June 2020)

JI Senator says only Islamic system will solve Pakistan's issues
On 24 June, during a press meet, Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) Emir Senator Sirajul Haq said that Pakistan would undergo real change and derive feasible solutions only after the Islamic system is imposed in the nation. He said load-shedding, inflated bills, and insufficiencies in transportation, health and education were all due to the lack of the Islamic system. ("Only Islamic system can provide solutions to country's problems: Siraj," The News International, 25 June 2020)

ECONOMY
Growth forecast revised to 1 per cent for the next fiscal year: IMF
On 24 June, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered the growth forecast for Pakistan by half to one per cent for the next fiscal year amid the devasting impact of the pandemic on the global economy. The fund initially estimated the country's GDP is going to -1.5 per cent for the FY2019-20 and a 2 per cent growth rate for FY2020-21 in its World Economic Outlook (WEO). However, it revised it to -0.4 per cent for the current fiscal in line with the government's estimates. Further, the fund also revised the next year's growth forecast to 1 per cent from 2 per cent. The IMF also stated that there remains uncertainty around these forecast as a result of the depth of contraction in the second quarter of 2020 and the intensity of the economic shock given that global activity is expected to be challenging in the second quarter of 2020. (Khaleeq Kiani, "IMF lowers country's growth forecast to 1pc," Dawn, 25 June 2020)

ON INDIA
Islamabad warns New Delhi against attacks
On 24 June, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi sternly warned India to refrain from initiating attacks on Pakistan, saying the latter would respond forcefully if India embarked on such military "misadventures". The FM accused India of plotting attacks on Pakistan to reduce the emphasis on the recent India-China escalation. ("Pakistan warns India against attacks," Dawn, 25 June 2020)

Pakistan-India Spate
The Dawn Editorial says India's call for halving Pakistan's diplomatic footprint in India is an attempt to initiate attacks on Pakistan to divert global attention from the recent escalation of a territorial dispute between New Delhi and Beijing, and India's internal issues. The Editorial also links the accident in Islamabad by two Indian High Commission officers and their alleged possession of fake currency to the recent development. ("Diplomatic spat," Dawn, 25 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez and A Padmashree.

In Brief

INTERNAL
Pakistan Space Programme looks at critical reforms with an increased budget
Pakistan has decided to limit the services of foreign satellite providers and raise up to $700 million for its National Space Programme on 23 June. The Cabinet approved policy guidelines which, when implemented, will help raise $600- $700 million dollars for the National Space Programme through the following decade. 

The current satellite capacity usage in Pakistan is approximated to be 2,200 MHz, of which, 21 per cent is known to be Pakistani Satellite. The government is looking to reduce its reliance on foreign and domestic funding, and is looking towards revenue-generating satellites. An inter-ministerial committee has recommended to maximize the use of the assets of SUPARCO Pakistan International for satellite services and adopt these policy measures in the interest of the nation and its economy. (Khalid Mustafa, “Govt to raise $700m for National Space Programme,” The News International, 24 June 2020)

Rifts within the PTI’s surface
During the cabinet meeting on 23 June, Prime Minister Imran Khan had to intervene to stop the hurling of allegations between PTI ministers. The spate commenced with a cabinet minister criticising federal Minister for Science and Technology Fawad Chaudhry for mentioning PTI’s internal rifts due to the appointing of non-elected cabinet members, during his interview to Voice of America. Senior leaders including PM Khan opined that party’s internal matters must not be discussed on open forums. (“Ministers see red after Fawad spills the beans about rifts,” Dawn, 24 June 2020)

The Federal government faces serious complaints from its ministers
The current government of Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) in the National Assembly was questioned for under budgeting from its lawmaker’s agriculture and various other projects in the federal budget such as shortage of petrol. The Punjab Government was called out for not maintaining the Law and order in the southern province mainly for not allocating budget, surging unemployment and no reform has taken place to improve the backward areas. The grant for demand and budget discussion along with the finance bill is set to be confirmed by Sunday. (Amir Wasim, “PTI lawmakers in NA blast own govts at Centre, Punjab,” Dawn, 24 June 2020)

The attack on academic freedom would lead to a deafening silence: Editorial
An editorial in the News International titled “Creeping Silence” is critical of the increasing threat on academic freedom in Pakistan with lecturers, professors, researchers, students, and even writers feeling threatened in private as well as public-sector universities. The editorial cites the names of Pervez Hoodbhoy, Alamgir Wazir, Ammar Ali Jan, Junaid Hafeez, Mashal Khan, Mohammad Hanif, Sajid Soomro and Zaigham Abbas all who have faced some kind of resistance when they have tried to voice their opinion or when they have encouraged young people to think critically. The editorial concludes by stating the attack of academic freedom comes amid the increasingly controlled media and the challenge of fake news, warning that this situation will only result in a deafening silence that will consume everyone. (“Creeping silence,” The News International, 24 June 2020)

BALOCHISTAN
Reporters protest against the torture of Chaman journalists, boycott Balochistan Assembly session
On 23 June, reporters protested against the arrest and torture of two Chaman-based journalists at the hands of security personnel and local administration. They raised anti-Chaman administration banners, placards and slogans, and left Balochistan Assembly’s press gallery as soon as the session began. Balochistan Union of Journalists president Ayub Tareen and Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists president Shahzada Zulfiqar led the protests. MPA Asghar Khan Achakzai and Minister for Home and Tribal Affairs Mir Zia Langove assured the protestors that the guilty would be held accountable and be reprimanded. Mr Langove added that CM Jam Kamal Khan Alyani had already directed an inquiry into the matter. (“Reporters boycott Balochistan Assembly session in protest against torture of two Chaman journalists,” Dawn, 24 June 2020)

Despite the cut in projects Awami Party continue to support PTI
The President of the Awami Party has supported the decision of not withdrawing from the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) coalition government for four reasons. Firstly, the Minister of Planning and development has affirmed to release the tender of Balochistan projects in September followed by regular reviewal of developments projects at federal and provincial levels. Secondly, the President has said that a plan has already been drafted to fix the budget deficit gap between expenditure and income. Thirdly, the fund allocation of Rs18 billion by the current government is promising for Balochistan to complete the projects that were under construction from 1997 to 2017. Finally, reforms to increase investment to the board of investment and Trade have been very progressive. (Saleem Shahid, “No decision taken to quit PTI coalition, says Jam Kamal,” Dawn, 24 June 2020)

GILGIT BALTISTAN
Legislative Assembly completes the five-year term
The Gilgit-Baltistan department of Law and prosecution announced that GB assembly upon completing its tenure on 23 June, stands dissolved. A notification stated as per the consultation of the chairman of the Gilgit-Baltistan council, Mir Afzal will be appointed as a caretaker Chief Minister of the GB. The tentative schedule of elections is expected to be released soon by the Election Commission of Pakistan. (Jamil Nagri, “Mir Afzal appointed GB’s caretaker chief minister,” Dawn, 24 June 2020)

ECONOMY
Centre aims for 4-4.5pc growth over the next three years
During the next three years, the finance ministry is targeting a national economic rebound with 4 to 4.5 per cent growth and a growth rate of 3 per cent of GDP for total revenues; with the hope that the IMF programme will continue. As a part of the Medium-Term Budgetary Framework (in compliance with the 2005 Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act), the fiscal deficit is expected to be reduced to 4.8 per cent of GDP and current expenditure to 22 per cent of GDP. Current expenditure for FY2019-20 has crossed the target of 20.2 per cent of GDP and reached 20.9 per cent. In the upcoming three years, it will be reduced to 18 per cent of GDP. (“Govt aiming for 4-4.5pc growth over next three years,” Dawn, 24 June 2020)

ON INDIA
India asks Pakistan to cut its diplomatic presence in India by half
On 23 June, after accusing Pakistan High Commission staff of espionage, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs conveyed to Haider Shah, the Pakistani chargé d’affaires in Delhi, India’s decision to halve Pakistan’s diplomatic presence in the country; a clear sign of escalating bilateral tensions. India’s diplomatic footprint in Islamabad would also be halved, in view of the reciprocity principle in diplomacy. The ministry has given Pakistan seven days to implement the decision. Pakistan’s FO rejected the espionage allegations and “the insinuations of intimidation of Indian High Commission officials in Islamabad”. (“India initiates diplomatic spat with Pakistan,” Dawn, 24 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

In Focus

Lockdown was not the solution to the pandemic: PM

On 22 June, Prime Minister Imran Khan reiterated that lockdown was not the solution to the pandemic, further stating that if the provinces had consulted with him earlier, he would not have allowed a lockdown. PM Khan made these statements while addressing the launching ceremony of three initiatives as a response to the Covid-19 situation. Further, he added that the fear of the virus spreading from Europe and Wuhan resulted in the imposition of a strict lockdown even though the circumstances in Pakistan were different. 

For Imran, the timely launch of the Ehsaas cash distribution programme for poor families affected by the coronavirus had left Pakistan in a better situation than India, US, and European countries. He then revealed that under the PM's Covid-19 Fund, more than 16 million families would be provided monetary assistance.

While addressing the future strategy of the government for COVID-19, he added that the next challenge for the government is to look at measures to ensure that businesses continue to function and the enforcement of SOPs. In light of this strategy, he said that a media campaign was to be launched and the Tiger Force will be mobilised to provide awareness about SOPs, especially in hotspots. He reiterated that the next month will be difficult with the implementation of the smart lockdown and the SOPs will have to be strictly followed to protect the most vulnerable.  

Concerning the three-initiative launched to facilitate and empower welfare organisations and enhancing their role with the government in responding to the Covid-19 situation, he added that new Langar and Panahgah Apps would help provide critical coordination of welfare activities in the country. ("If asked, would not have allowed lockdown: PM," Dawn, 23 June 2020)

Local government's disconnected from citizens: UNDP
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) released a report titled "Covid-19 — Pakistan Socio-economic Impact Assessment and Response Plan" in which it stated that the local governments in Pakistan are disconnected from its citizens and have not been the at the forefront of the COVID-19 like in other countries across the world. This has led to the weakening of the essential state-society social contract leading to marginalisation, group grievances, and conflict and social resilience in the country.

Further, the report states that despite measures to provide relief amid the pandemic, the results remain poor, with traders, businessmen, and medical health professionals dissatisfied by the federal government's unilateral decisions affecting their businesses. Further, the poor segments of the population have lost their livelihoods, with many people relying on daily wages. The report also raises concern over how COVID-19 is threatening social cohesion within countries, and its impact on society and the behaviour of individuals, stating that Pakistan is offering that space for further integration of the relation between social cohesion and community resilience.

The report brings out the current situation in Pakistan, where the state-society disconnect has often been filled by a violent extremist who has exploited the grievances of the people and the lack of state support in times of crisis to win support among vulnerable groups. Further, the absence of local governments in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Balochistan make in unclear in knowing who making the decisions and what activity each one is doing. The report states that the presence of elected local governments would have helped create an effective bridge between the government and the population, thus resolving the current situation in which the citizens have lost trust in the government's decision. The report recommends that local governments also require a strong emergency management system that can identify vulnerable segments and respond to challenges immediately "Pakistan's local govts disconnected from citizens: UNDP, Dawn, 23 June 2020)

In Brief

INTERNAL
The Crash report of airbus A320 was released
The recent plane crash of the PK-8303 preliminary report has been released. It has given the reason for the crash was due to ignorance of the directions by the cockpit crew and the air traffic controller has also been blamed for not enforcing the instructions to the pilot to follow it. The air traffic controller was also made responsible for allowing the aircraft to land despite the wrong parameters. ("Plane crash report made public," Dawn, 23 June 2020)

MQM faction in London denies allegations of Anwar
The MQM London faction has denied allegations of MQM's veteran leader Muhammad Anwar that the MQM had been receiving funds from the government of India and that he was asked by its leadership to coordinate with Indian contacts to receive it. The MQM London issued a statement after a meeting at Altaf Hussain's House saying "The Coordination Committee of MQM has strongly denied comments made by Muhammad Anwar against founder and leader Altaf Hussain and MQM. The allegations levelled by Muhammad Anwar in his interview with Murtaza Ali Shah of Geo TV are baseless and fabricated. These allegations are not new for MQM because since inception it has been facing such kind of fabricated and malicious propaganda and has always rejected them in the strongest terms." (Murtaza Ali Shah, "MQM-London denies Anwar's RAW allegations," The News International, 23 June 2020)

BALOCHISTAN
The National Party head to topple the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government
The JUI-F chief has urged BNP-M head for alliance talk with party members to not support the current government while Mengal (BNP-M) has stated about having close relations with the opposition. The JUI-F chief has stated that "The other coalition parties in the government should now speak truth boldly" ("Fazl seeks Mengal support to topple Imran's govt," The Express Tribune, 23 June 2020)

Balochistan: the more things change, the more they stay the same
The Budget of Balochistan of Rs465.5 for the next fiscal year seems more the same as being adaptive to the crisis. The editorial brings out four drawbacks that lie in the budget. The lack of transparency in the budget and shows no accountability as reforms only seem to straighten the public finance but the management system goes on to be vague. The budget estimates are seeming to be diverted from the expenditure on service delivery needs. Along with corruption and bureaucratic red tape preventing the entry of private capital into the province. The editorial suggests that the province needs to bring stronger reforms to support its financial system, development schemes to get political support and accountability to the expenditures. ("Balochistan budget," Dawn, 23 June 2020)

CPEC
Former governor of the SBP states the importance of BRI to Pakistan
The former governor of the State Bank of Pakistan states four significant benefits to Pakistan from the BRI initiative. Firstly, the infrastructure that lacks investment will gain access to capital. Secondly, the shortage of power in Pakistan has reduced the GDP by three per cent and the support to power plant projects will help meet it. Thirdly, urbanisation helps to bridge the gap in income inequality. Finally, the boost to the intra-regional trade and generation of new businesses across the region. ("Pandemic disruption has elevated BRI's importance: former SBP governor," Dawn, 23 June 2020)

Transparency of the CPEC is under question
The editorial questioned the accountability of the CPEC to the government. In the recent event, the secretary to the Gwadar port had denied disclosing the agreement of Phase-II when it was asked by the Senate. In the CPEC history, it is not the first-time thing, but it has been a practise when it comes to being transparent. Although the infrastructure projects do help Pakistan, what is needed is the transparency of such projects involving international powers. Only upon a clear disclosing of the agreement should the government agree for the implementation. ("Sharing CPEC facts," Dawn, 23 June 2020)

ON INDIA
Qureshi brings the issue of Kashmiri's in OIC meeting
In the virtual meeting held by OIC on Jammu and Kashmir, the foreign minister has objected to Jammu and Kashmir Reorgani­zation Order 2020 and the Jammu and Kashmir Grant of Domicile Cer­tificate Rules 2020 as it violates the UNSC resolutions and International Law. The minister also condemned the actions of India on the people of Kashmir and the violence faced was intolerable. He urged "India to rescind annexation of Occupied Jammu and Kashmir; hold UN-supervised plebiscite in IOJ&K; end human rights abuses and international media to investigate and report on the situation in the occupied territory." (Baqir Sajjad Syed, "Pakistan asks world to look into Kashmiris' plight," Dawn, 23 June 2020)

ON INDIA-CHINA BORDER TENSIONS
Analysis of Pakistan-India-China possibilities of war
An analysis in the News initially compares the military expenditure of China and India. It is differential military spending, as per the 2010 SIPRI report China had spent 143 billion dollars while India spends 71 billion dollars in the current decade. This, in itself, gives a better possibility for China. In the case between Pakistan and India, the problem is viewed as a "battle of survival" and not a religious or territory problem. According to Zaidi, India has more of a nationalist and a religious extremist country and it is time for Pakistan to get ready for an attack from India as tensions build in the LOC. (Mosharraf Zaidi, "India's next attack is coming," The News International, 23 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

In Focus

Covid-19: 55 per cent of the Pakistanis consider the issue overrated, says a survey

As per Gallup Pakistan's Coronavirus Attitude Tracker Survey, presently 55 per cent Pakistanis (65 per cent from Sindh) believe the coronavirus threat to be exaggerated. Globally, Pakistani respondents are fourth likely to have this opinion, and those from Japan are the least likely (12 per cent). ("55pc Pakistanis believe threat of coronavirus is exaggerated: survey," The News International, 22 June 2020)

Public Opinion

As per the study, public opinion over whether or not Covid-19 has been brought under control is split – while 47 per cent agree, 48 per cent disagree with 33 per cent strongly disagreeing. The survey found that 22 per cent claimed to know someone from within their social circle who had contracted the virus; 12 per cent claimed to know someone who had succumbed to the virus; one-third Pakistanis doubt the reported number of coronavirus cases; and 67 per cent opine that the Central government has controlled the pandemic well, while 28 per cent disagree (in early April 82 per cent agreed). ("COVID-19: Percentage of people satisfied with government's performance decline by 15%," Geo TV, 22 June 2020)

Social distancing

"Housewives (47%), farmers (30%) and business owners (29%) are the least supportive of nationwide lockdowns to curb the COVID-19 crisis". 65 per cent Pakistanis report that a male family member attends the congregational Jummah prayer in the mosque; a steep hike from April's 29 per cent. In Balochistan, this figure is as high as 91 per cent; while in Sindh, it is 42 per cent. Data shows that nearly 75 per cent Pakistanis say that a male family member offered Eid prayers in a mosque; 74 per cent Pakistanis will send their children to school if they re-open soon, and 59 per cent believe things will normalize by end of 2020. The current public perceptions do not understand the gravity of the Covid-19 situation. It will lead to the flouting of SOPs proving detrimental to Pakistan's pandemic battle. ("Coronavirus Attitude Tracker Survey," Gallup Pakistan)

Economic front

On the economic front, the survey made the following findings: 22 per cent of Pakistani households claim to have reduced the size or number of meals. 2.1 million households sold assets, and over 22 million adults borrowed food or sought help in the past week to meet basic household needs. A significant majority, 88 per cent, claim their incomes have plummeted since the lockdown. "Business owners (97%), self-employed persons (89%), and daily wagers (84%) consider themselves to be the most at-risk". Regarding the re-opening of businesses, while 47 per cent (83 per cent Sindh residents) support it, 48 per cent do not. 95% of daily wagers claim to know someone who has lost their job owing to the lockdown. Also, 25 per cent Pakistanis claim to have experienced greater Eidul Fitr expenditure in 2020. 

The Survey

The Coronavirus Attitude Tracker Survey studies longitudinal behavioural, attitudinal, and public-perceptional changes since the commence of the lockdown. It examines public response and conducts towards preventive initiatives and programmes to tackle the pandemic. The survey also analyses the socio-economic impact of the Covid-19 lockdown and overall changes.

Image Source: The News

In Brief

INTERNAL
More political change to come: Mengal
The Balochistan National Party (BNP-M) leader Sardar Akhtar Mengal met with Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman for the second time on 21 June, after while talking to reporters he said: "In our meeting, we discussed the changes that have already taken place in the country and the changes which are about to come." Further, the JUI-F chief stated that he hopes Mengal would contact other allies of the PTI and convince them to come out of the ruling coalition by convincing them that this was not the time to support the government. These statements come after the Mengal announced his party's decision to quit the PTI-led ruling coalition, further stating that the decision to quit the ruling coalition was a party decision that could not be changed by him. (Amir Wasim, "Mengal hints at 'more political changes' in near future," Dawn, 22 June 2020)

Alienating Mengal sends a wrong signal to Balochistan: Editorial
An editorial in the Dawn titled "Baloch demands" is critical of the PTI government's shortcoming in fulfilling the demands of the BNP-M. The departure of the party from the PTI coalition has once again only highlighted the grim situation in Balochistan. The editorial states that it is unfortunate that the government has succeeded in alienating someone as accommodating Sardar Akhtar Mengal, thus sending a wrong signal to Balochistan at a time when the province needs greater integration and healing. Further, this situation depicts the failure of successive governments to address the grievance in Balochistan despite repeated attempts at settling issues. The editorial concludes by stating that the PTI government and the establishment must not let matters slide further and that the demand of the Balochistan must be met. ("Baloch demands," Dawn, 22 June 2020)

Two army men killed in North Waziristan attack
On 21 June, a captain and a soldier of the Pakistan Army were killed in clashes with militants in North Waziristan. Three terrorists, including their leader, were also killed in the exchange of fire. The incidents took place when the authorities were planning the opening of the Ghulam Khan border crossing with Afghanistan for bilateral trade which was closed due to security reasons. According to the ISPR statement, terrorists opened fire at a security forces' patrolling party. In another incident, a remote-controlled device exploded close to a military vehicle near Mirali. However, no casualty was reported in the blast. There has been an increase of targeted killings and attacks on security forces in the North Waziristan district since April where over one dozen security personnel have been martyred in these attacks. (Pazir Gul, "Captain, soldier martyred in North Waziristan attack," Dawn, 22 June 2020)

ON JUSTICE ISA CASE
Analysis of the Justice Isa case
An analysis by Rasool brings out a detailed analysis of the Justice Isa case. This started when the government claimed Justice Isa was guilty of misconduct for not disclosing the assets in the name of his family members. It was denied by Justice Isa for framing him under a reference that was acquired illegally. Therefore, the government asserted judicial accountability and a panel of 10 judges directed for an explanation for the source of funds to acquire assets by the spouse and children. In the short order, they provided a time of 60 days to carry out proceedings before the commissioner and 75 days within the date of receipt. It has asked the secretary of (Supreme Judicial council) SJC to submit the record of the proceedings, and this will be taken into account in case the FBR does not file the report. It is expected that FBR will inspect the audits of Justice Isa for the next two months and shall be reviewed by SJC. According to Rasool, the next months will challenge the justice and confidence of the Judicial system. (Saad Rassol, "Justice Qazi Faez Isa Case," The Nation, 22 June 2020)

Justice Isa's case was not a simple case for the Supreme Court to show courage in protecting a good judge versus the evil state: Comment
A commentary in the Dawn titled "Against judicial pessimism" looks into the dangers of thinking that the Justice Isa case has been closed. Further, it states that it is an illusion to think that Justice Isa's case was a simple case for the Supreme Court to just show courage in protecting a good judge versus the evil state, bring out three challenges in this case and how they were addressed by the court: firstly, how can judges be protected from persecution without compromising on accountability? It safeguarded the independence of the judge but permitted accountability with stern safeguards. Secondly, how can the state accountable for its illegal and mala fide actions against judges without provoking an inter-institutional crisis? It refrained from saying anything about mala fides of the executive without giving reasons to avoid speculations about an inter-institutional crisis. Thirdly, how does one provide justice to the persecuted judge without compromising the autonomy and effectiveness of the SJC? It exercised jurisdiction over the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) without compromising the role of SJC as the primary body of judicial accountability. The commentary concludes by stating that with the strong support of the lawyers' community and the general public, Justice Faez Isa has already won the war; however, a few battles remain. (Faisal Siddiqi, "Against judicial pessimism," Dawn, 22 June 2020)

ON INDIA
Mustafa Kamal comments on MQM chief and links with RAW
In a Press conference in Karachi, Pak Sar Zameen Party (PSP) leader has accused the chief of turning youngsters into agents for RAW. He also blames the murder of MQM leader to be Altaf Hussain and how his party started Jihad against him for corrupting the younger generations. He said "Altaf Hussain is now conspiring against the country and is raising the slogan of Sindhu Desh," ("MQM chief turned youngsters into RAW agents: Kamal," The Nation, 22 June 2020)

Former MQM leader accuses the members of MQM for receiving funds from India
Muhammad Anwar, former head of the MQM diplomatic wing has accused the members of the party of receiving funds from India to support its contracts. He was earlier accused along with Hussain in the murdering of the leader Farooq but he has denied the fact and said that he blamed the former governor of Sindh for spreading the rumour. Regarding the contact with India, he commented that "I was connected by the MQM with the Indian contacts. I never had any vested interests. We were towing the party line in India." This can be viewed as a diversion for the accusation posed on the former head. (Murtaza Ali Shah, "Altaf's confidant admits to taking money from India," The News International, 22 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

BNP-Mengal exits from the ruling coalition, as PTI fails its promises on the Baloch disappearances
Balochistan National Party (BNP) – Mengal is one of the leading political parties in Balochistan. Formed by Sardar Ataullah Mengal, now it is led by his son Sardar Akhtar Mengal. Ataullah Mengal, along with Sardar Khair Bakhsh Marri and Sardar Akbar Bugti were the leaders of the Baloch nation. The three leaders also represented three main Baloch tribes – Mengal, Marri and Bugti.
 
BNP-M is known for its strong political stand on Baloch rights. In 2018, when the PTI led government was formed in the Centre, the BNP joined. The party has four seats in the National Assembly, and ten seats in the Baloch provincial assembly.
 
Early this week, (17 June 2020, Wednesday) Sardar Akhtar Mengal announced in the Parliament, that his party would like to leave the PTI coalition. (Dawn, 18 June 2020). According to Mengal, there were two agreements between the PTI and the BNP, on which the latter agreed to be a part of the coalition. But none of the points agreed was implemented by the government so far. According to a news report by Dawn, both the parties had signed a six-point memorandum of understanding in August 2018. This would include the recovery of missing persons and the implementation of NAP, besides allotment of six per cent quota for Balochistan in federal government departments.
 
Recovery of disappeared persons has been an emotional issue for Balochistan. Sardar Akhtar’s case is, there has been no movement in tracing the missing Baloch, mostly youths, but also that there is a reactivation of death squads. His main question is, as he conveyed in the Parliament announcing his party’s exit is – if there could be so many committees on Kashmir, why cannot be there one on Balochistan.
 
The PTI has the necessary numbers in the national Parliament, despite the BNP-M walking out. Of the 342 seats, the PTI has 156 seats, and its other coalition members including the MQM-P (7), BAP (5), PML-Q (5), and GDA (3) make 177 seats. The PTI’s problem would be the problem with his coalition partners. Both the MQM-P and PML-Q has serious problems with the PTI early this year.
 
After the BNP-M’s exit, the PTI government has attempted to reconcile with its former Baloch partner. On 20 June, the PTI sent its Defence Minister (Pervez Khattak) and Federal Minister for Planning and Development (Asad Umar) to talk to Sardar Mengal. According to reports available, the meeting did not succeed, as Sardar Mengal announced that the decision to leave coalition was not his personal one, but of the party. (Dawn, 21 June 2020)
 
Meanwhile, the Nation has reported, that the BNP members would submit a note to the Assembly, to formally move them to the opposition benches within the Parliament.
 

Supreme Court’s short order on the Presidential Reference against Justice Isa
“The Order of the Court is that Reference No 1 of 2019 (against Justice Qazi Faez Isa) is declared to be of no legal effect whatsoever and stands quashed, and inconsequence thereof the proceedings pending in the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) including the show-cause notice of 17 July, 2019 stand abated,” read the short order of the Supreme Court, announced on 19 June 2020.
 
After serving the Chief Justice of Balochistan, Justice Isa became a member of the Supreme Court in 2014. He became famous for his judgement in 2017 on the right-wing members' protest and subsequent blockade of the highway in Faizabad, linking Rawalpindi and Islamabad. In a hard-hitting verdict, Justice Isa had questioned the role played by the military and the intelligence agencies, in which the latter were seen placating the leaders of the Tehreek Labbaik Party (TLP). The TLP brought Islamabad and Rawalpindi to a standstill then, causing a serious setback to the Nawaz Sharif government. Subsequently, the ISI has challenged the Supreme Court order on the case. (The Express Tribune, 15 April 2019). According to the Express Tribune, “The ISI contends that the observation about the involvement of armed forces in politics is vague as there is no evidence as such in this regard. Likewise, there was no evidence to suggest that the ISI was involved with either sit-in/dharna or particular outcome of the 2018 general elections or the abridgment of free speech or intimidation of or censorship of the press.”
 
According to Justice Isa’s counsel, the primary reason for the case against Justice Isa was his judgement in the Faizabad case. (The Express Tribune, 14 October 2019) Ever since there has been numerous reports and analyses linking the reference against Justice Isa with his judgement.
 
According to available information, a case against Justice Isa was filed in April 2019 at the Prime Minister’s Asset Recovery Unit (ARU) for possessing properties abroad, and not divulging the source of the same. Based on the ARU investigation, the government has made a reference through the President, as is the case, against Judge Isa in the Supreme Judicial Council. (The News, 20 June 2020)
 
If the primary reason behind Justice Isa's reference is his verdict in Faizabad, then the issue is serious. First, the independence of the judiciary. Second, the PTI government bidding someone else's case.
 
One has to wait for the full verdict and look at the final judgement of the Supreme Court. Justice Isa is slated to become the Chief Justice of Supreme Court in 2023.
 

The long-awaited verdict on Imran Farooq's case: three accused sentenced for life. MQM will be a bigger loser
The Imran Farooq murder case has been one of the most discussed not only in Karachi, but also in the rest of Pakistan, and in London as well. Farooq, a leader of the MQM and a close associate of the party leader Altaf Hussain, was murdered in London in 2010. He had left Karachi in the early 1990s when there was a crackdown against the MQM; he has been living in London. Altaf Hussain was accused of ordering the murder of Imran Farooq.
 
On 18 June 2020, the anti-terrorism court gave its judgement: “It is proved that Altaf Hussain ordered the killing of Dr Imran Farooq.” (The Express Tribune, 18 June 2020). It also read: “The two executors were properly facilitated who went with a sole purpose to London for committing the murder and as per preplanned conspiracy, an innocent person was brutally murdered.”
 
According to an editorial in the News, Farooq was “reportedly trying to form his own faction with the MQM which some say was perhaps was a major reason for his murder.” (The News, 20 June 2020) Many agree with the above point. Evidence was collected by the British police; the same was submitted to the ATC, following an understanding between the two governments – UK and Pakistan. According to the judges, the evidence proves the case against the accused.
 
What does this verdict mean for the MQM and Altaf Hussain? The MQM and Altaf Hussain stand discredited in Karachi. The process started much earlier with a deliberate strategy by the Deep State much earlier. Both Altaf Hussain and the MQM fell into the trap; MQM today stands broken from within, lost its eminence in Karachi and its with London severed. The verdict should deepen the above further. Altaf Hussain should take the primary blame.

In Focus

KP presents its budget for 900 plus billion rupees. And, Gilgit Baltistan for 68 billion.

KP BUDGET 2020-21
On 19 June, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Minister for Finance Taimur Saleem Jhagra announced KP’s tax-free budget 2020-21 worth Rs923 billion focusing on tax relief for pandemic hit businesses and health sector improvements. The minister told the Pakistani dailyDawnthat anchoring fixed governmental costs (such as unfunded pensions that have risen to 15 per cent) posed the biggest challenge during the Covid times. He also mentioned the plan to borrow “Rs47bn for development or social service spending”. (“BUDGET 2020-21: Rs923bn KP budget focuses on health, tax relief,” Dawn, 20 June 2020) (“KP govt announces Rs923 billion 'tax free' budget for 2020-21,” Geo News, 19 June 2020)

Expenditure Estimates and Allocations
Reports say that budget documents estimate KP’s total expenditure at Rs923bn (Rs184bn for merged and Rs739bn for settled districts); federal transfers at Rs477.5bn; current revenue expenditure at Rs593b; current capital expenditure at Rs12bn; development outlay at Rs318bn (Rs100bn more than FY2019-20); salary and pension expenses at Rs360bn; merged districts’ current expenditures at Rs88bn. The budget earmarks Rs39bn for education; and Rs318bn for uplift projects. The budget does not introduce any new taxes or include any salary increases for government employees. Additionally, the expenditure budget of Rs593bn is 12pc higher than FY 2019-20’s Rs526bn; and pension bill will increase by 23 per cent. (“No Enhancement of Pay as per Budget Speech Copy 2020-21 KPK,” Galaxy World, 19 June 2020) (“Integrated Budget Call Circular 2020-21,” Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – Finance Department, 19 June 2020)

Health and Pandemic Earmarks
The Minister said the budget allocates Rs124bn for health and Rs24bn emergency fund for combating Covid-19. He added that KP’s healthcare personnel would be expanded by 30,000 and that KP would be Pakistan’s first province to provide universal health coverage to all citizens. The budget allocates Rs10bn for the related contract that will be signed in July 2020.

Also read:
“KP presents Rs923b budget for FY 2020-21,” The Nation, 20 June 2020
“KP Govt presents Rs 923 bn tax free Budget 2020-21,” Dunya News, 20 June 2020
 

GILGIT BALTISTAN BUDGET 2020-21

Gilgit-Baltistan’s Minister for Law and Parliamentary Affairs Aurangzeb Khan revealed the tax-free budget for FY2020-21 on 19 June. The proposals have an outlay of more than Rs68 billion. The budget proposals earmark Rs6bn for wheat subsidy; and Rs1.8bn for transportation. (“Budget presented for fiscal year 2020-21 in Gilgit-Baltistan assembly,” ARY News, 19 June 2020) (“GB budget with total outlay of over Rs 68 billion presented,” The Nation, 20 June 2020)

Salary hikes
The budget includes a 15 per cent rise in grade 1 to 16 government employees’ salaries and 10 per cent rise from grade 17. (“Gilgit Baltistan 15% increase in Salaries Budget Speech 2020-21,” Galaxy World, 19 June 2020)

Education and Development Programme
The proposal allocates Rs1.59bn for education and over Rs25bn for the Public Sector Development Programme. Funds have been allocated for construction of new departments in schools, drinking water facilities, furniture, and up-gradation of some schools.

Food, Forest Department, Wildlife, energy and Tourism sectors
Minister Aurangzeb said 98.6 million has been allocated for Environment, Wildlife and Forest Department; Rs2.73bn for power generation; 114 million for the tourism industry; Rs90.80m for agriculture and livestock; and Rs19.42m for the food sector. (“GB presents tax free budget for 2020-21,” MM News, 20 June 2020)

GB’s Agriculture minister Haji Janbaz Khan succumbs to Covid-19
Initially, GB’s budget proposal was scheduled for 18 June, but got delayed by a day due to the demise of Agriculture minister Haji Janbaz Khan. Minister Haji is the first GB Assembly member to lose his life to the coronavirus pandemic. Opposition members including opposition leader Mohammad Shafi Khan; members of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Jaffarullah Khan, Mohammad Amin and Barkat Jamil; members of Pakistan Peoples’ Party Javed Hussain and Engineer Mohammad Ismail; and Majlis Wahdat-i-Muslimeen’s Rizwan Ali paid tribute to the late Minister for his contribution to the development of the region and called his death an irreparable loss. This will be the present GB government’s last budget as their tenure will expire on 24 June. (“BUDGET 2020-21: Rs68bn Gilgit-Baltistan budget unveiled,” Dawn, 20 June 2020) (“GB budget for FY2020-21 with outlay of over Rs68b announced,” Radio Pakistan, 19 June 2020)

Also read:
“GB Budget With Total Outlay Of Over Rs 68b Presented,” Urdu Point, 19 June 2020
“Read the Budget Speech (Gilgit-Baltistan),”Pamir Times, 20 June 2020

Image Source: The News

In Brief

ON JUSTICE ISA
Supreme court calls the presidential reference unconstitutional
The Supreme court in the case against Justice Isa for non-disclosure of foreign properties suppressed the presidential reference and directed the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) to inquire tax proceedings and determine to apply misconduct reference or not. The short order stated that “the Reference No 1 of 2019 declared to be of no legal effect whatsoever, and stands quashed, and in consequence, thereof, the proceedings pending in the Supreme Judicial Council (“Council”) against the Petitioner in CP 17/2019 (including the show-cause notice dated 17-07-2019 issued to him) stand abated.” It also added, the proceedings to be ended before the commissioner within 60 days of the date of receipt and the order to be issued within 75 days of the date of receipt. “There shall be no adjournment or extension in time whatsoever shall be given as affects or extends the aforesaid periods.”(Sohail Khan, “Justice Isa case: reference, show-cause notices dismissed, final verdict on properties lies with SJC,” The News International, 20 June 2020)

The dismissal of the presidential reference has invoked the opposition party asking for the Prime Minister to step down for an unconstitutional case. They applauded the judiciary for upholding the law and the constitution. (“Opp asks President, PM to step down,” The News International, 20 June 2020)

On Justice Isa: Govt and opposition express their satisfaction over the SC ruling
On 29 June, both the government and opposition expressed their satisfaction over the Supreme Court decision to reject the presidential reference against the Justice Isa. While addressing a joint press conference the PTI core committee declared that they would not file an appeal against the SC decision, further stating, “the judiciary is respected by us and they are the guardians of the Constitution. There are no winners or losers in this case.” The opposition parties welcomed the SC short order as statements were stating “United Opposition welcomes Supreme Court’s decision to quash the presidential reference against Justice Qazi Faiz Isa.” (“Govt, opposition hail SC ruling in rare accord,” Dawn, 20 June 2020)

INTERNAL
PM signs 1.5 billion dollars loan agreements to fight the virus
PM Imran Khan witnessed the signing ceremony of 1.5-billion-dollar loan agreements with three international financial institutions for combating the Covid-19 crisis. The agreements were signed with the World Bank (WB), Asian Development Bank (ABB), and Asian Infrastructure Development Bank (AIIB). The AIIB has extended a 500-million-dollar agreement relating to the COVID-19 Active Response and Expenditure Support Programme (CARES) which is aimed at supporting the Pakistan government’s efforts to strengthen the health system and mitigate socioeconomic impacts of the pandemic. The loan amount will be disbursed in the next few days. (Syed Irfan Raza, “$1.5bn loan agreements signed to fight virus,” Dawn, 20 June 2020)
 
Three attacks in the Sindh province
In Ghotki, Karachi and Larkana, four people and two rangers were killed and around 10 were injured in the attacks on Friday. A Sindh based militant organisation that was banned has claimed responsibility for the attacks while the police forces have said it to be part of Muttahida Qaumi Movement. The Prime Minister has condemned the attacks and asked for reports. (Imtiaz Ali, “Two Rangers men among four martyred in three attacks across Sindh,” Dawn, 20 June 2020)
 
Editorial on the MQM leader case
The Anti-terrorism court sentenced three men for the murder of Imran Farooq on Thursday. As per the editorial, it was a delayed investigation but it brought out the suspect behind the curtains of running a criminal organisation under Hussain. It brings out how the leadership of Hussain has kept its members mute and how his speech in 2016 had affected the party. (“Imran Farooq case,” Dawn, 20 June 2020)
 
CPEC
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) towards its second phase
The second phase sets its focus on the development of SEZ, the agriculture sector and socio-economic development. Although Phase-I has faced criticism for lacking transparency, this has assured that. This has not only added tensions between the US and China but large foreign loan deficits on Pakistan. (“Moving Forward,” The Nation, 20 June 2020)
 
ECONOMY
FDI falls to 120 million dollars in May
Data released by the State Bank of Pakistan showed that Foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country fell for the third consecutive month in May to 120 million dollars, from 133 million dollars in April and 278 million in March, mainly due to investors’ aversion for emerging markets in the wake of Covid-19 pandemic. The declining trend of foreign investment in the last three months is a clear indicator to show that the inflows would fall further in the coming months. Further, they warned that remittances will remain depressed in the coming fiscal year due to the falling price of crude oil which could further cause large layoffs for foreign workers in the Gulf region including Pakistanis working in those countries. (Shahid Iqbal, “FDI falls for third consecutive month in May,” Dawn, 20 June 2020)
 
COVID-19
National Command and Operations Centre (NCOC) launches helpline as Covid-19 cases rise
The National Command and Operations Centre (NCOC) launched a helpline in association with Digital Pakistan to support the frontline health workers fighting against the pandemic. The complaints will be received by NCOC and the relevant authority will decide on the action needed. So far, the total number of deaths have reached 3,295 with confirmed cases rising to 168,728 and 4,944 new cases. The confirmed cases in Punjab is at 61,678 and the virus has spread to urban, sub-urban and low-lying areas. The virus spread has been unanimous across society. (“Death rate spikes as 136 die in a day,” The News International, 20 June 2020)
 
EXTERNAL
Peace talks between Pakistan and Taliban in Doha
The foreign ministry announced peace talks with the Taliban in Doha. According to the special representative, Pakistan appreciates the commitment of Taliban for implementing US- Taliban peace agreement. He also said that the release of prisoners as per the US-Taliban peace agreement will take forward to re-start of Intra-Afghan negotiations. So far, Pakistan has been vital in the Afghan peace process especially in bringing the US. (Shafqat Ali, “Pak, Afghan Taliban discuss peace in Doha talks” The Nation, 20 June 2020)

Reopening of the western border
On 19 June, the Interior Ministry notified the opening of three border crossings on Pakistan’s western border for trade traffic. Three border crossings, Torkham, Chaman, and Ghulam Khan border terminal have been ordered to be opened for 24 hours, six days a week. The notice further stated that an “unlimited number of trucks will be allowed per day for both Afghan transit and bilateral trade: while ensuring all COVID-19-related standard operating procedures and protocols are being followed.” The border crossings had been closed on 1 May as part of the larger lockdowns being implemented across the country. (“Western border reopened for trade,” Dawn, 20 June 2020)

ON INDIA
FM warns India against any misadventures
On 19 June, Foreign Minister warned India against any misadventure, stating that any such move by India would prompt a telling response from Pakistan, the minister stated: “Beware, beware, remember February (2019) and be ready for a quick retaliation while casting an evil eye on us.” Further, regarding the Kashmir issue he stating that there was complete unanimity in the country over this matter. Responding to the opposition remarks on India’s non-permanent membership of the UNSC, he said that Pakistan did not abstain but voted against the non-permanent membership of India, rejecting the claims no walkover was given to India during UNSC election. (Iftikhar A. Khan, “FM warns India against any misadventure,” Dawn, 20 June 2020)
 
Webinar on China- India Standoff
The Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS) hosted a webinar titled “China-India standoff: Implications for Regional Security” to discuss the situation on China-India border and risks of further escalation. The session was chaired by Air Chief Marshal Kaleem Saadat (retd), president CASS while Shashank Joshi, Prof Shen Dingli, Lt-Gen Naeem Khalid Lodhi (retd) and Jalil Abbas Jilani. The panellist looked into the crisis and stating that the current level of escalation resulted due to the extremely worrying deterioration of protocols on both sides. Another reiterated the stand of both China and India’s stand on the LAC. Further insights on the military and operational significance of the crisis and the strategic consequences of the matter were discussed. The discussion concluded with the CASS President's concern that India may direct its misplaced anger towards Pakistan, however that would not solve India’s China problem. (“Webinar on evolving China, India border situation,” The News International, 20 June 2020)

India has fallen into its own trap
An opinion in the Nation titled " Bereaving hearts of Galwan heights" by Samson Simon Sharaf is critical of the recent clash between the Chinese and Indian forces in the Galwan valley. He states that no soldier deserved such a hike into the valley of death, which the Indian brave hearts went through. While addressing how the clash took place, he states that it was foolish to send unarmed soldiers into hostile territory. Further, he states that the entire build-up on the Ladakh by the Indian military highlights the political and strategically entangle that India has caused for itself, further stating that the BJP government has caused this strategic imbalance. (Samson Simon Sharaf, "Bereaving hearts of Galwan heights" The Nation, 20 June 2020)
 
Kashmiri women in the view of International Day for Elimination of Sexual Violence in Conflict
According to the Pakistan Foreign Office, 11,000 women have been prone to sexual violence in J&K. It has requested the UN to investigate the violence and hold India responsible for its disregard of law and human rights. According to FO “These repugnant acts of violence against women are enabled through a pervasive culture of impunity, reinforced by draconian laws such as Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) that shield the Indian security forces from prosecution from their crimes of sexual violence” (Mariana Baabar, “International Day for Elimination of Sexual Violence in Conflict: Pakistan draws world’s attention to sexual violence in IOK,” The News International, 20 June 2020)

An opinion accuse of Violence against women in J&K
A column in the Nation titled “Sexual Violence in Indian Occupied Kashmir” accuses the Indian army and paramilitary forces of human rights violations. According to the author, Armed Forces Special Powers Act provides powers to soldiers, including the power to shoot to kill in certain situations and to arrest people without warrants which have caused grave human rights violations, including extrajudicial executions, enforced disappearances, rape and torture and ill-treatment of the people in the region. (Malik Muhammad Ashraf, “Sexual violence in Indian-Occupied Kashmir,” The Nation, 20 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

In Focus

PTI tries to get the BNP back into the coalition

BNP-M leaves the ruling coalition
On 17 June, Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) chief Sardar Akhtar Mengal announced the party’s decision to withdraw from the ruling coalition with the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI). Soon, the Centre commenced efforts to win back the ally. (“BNP-M quits coalition over non-implementation of accord,” Pakistan Today, 19 June 2020) (“BNP-M chief announces withdrawal from PTI coalition govt,” Dawn, 19 June 2020)

Prime Minister attempts to win back BNP-M. 
PM Imran Khan convened a meeting and formed a negotiation committee to improve working relations with allies. National Assembly Speaker Asad Qaiser, Defence Minister Pervez Khattak, Planning Minister Asad Umar, Adviser on Parliamentary Affairs Babar Awan, and Education Minister Shafqat Mahmood were in attendance. The PM asked Pervez Khattak (head of the committee) to re-establish formal contact with BNP-M, mediate and address the concerns, and alleviate their reservations for re-joining the coalition. PM Khan also said that reasons for non-compliance with the demands be communicated with BNP-M. On 18 June, Senate Chairman Sadiq Sanjrani met with Mr. Mengal to deliver a message from the Khattak led committee. The Premier was informed that doors of negotiation with the ally remained open. (“Govt starts efforts to win back BNP-M’s support,” Dawn, 19 June 2020) (“PM tasks Khattak with wooing back BNP-M,” The Express Tribune, 19 June 2020) (“PTI tries to win over BNP-M yet again,” The Express Tribune, 19 June 2020)

Media reactions
Dawn has cited and agreed to Jamaat-i-Islami emir Senator Sirajul Haq’s statement that the Center has alienated its allying Baloch leaders instead of bringing them to the negotiation table. The News International asked if BNP-M’s move will set a pattern and lead to a disintegration of the ruling coalition or arm-twisting of PTI by allying parties such as the unhappy PML-Q and MQM. PM’s Khan sudden Karachi visit to meet with the MQM leadership to ensure their absolute commitment reflects this concern. (“PTI govt alienating its Baloch allies, says Siraj,” Dawn, 19 June 2020) (“BNP Exit,” The News International, 19 June 2020)

Background
The BNP-M and PTI signed a six-point MoU in August 2018 to form a ruling coalition. The points of agreement comprised of Afghan refugees’ immediate repatriation, missing persons’ recovery, application of the National Action Plan, construction of dams in Balochistan to resolve water shortage, and a six per cent Baloch quota in the Central government. Ever since BNP-M has demanded the accord’s implementation but in vain. In June 2019, Mr. Mengal threatened to leave the coalition for the first time if the demands remained unfulfilled. (“BNP-M threatens to leave coalition govt,” Geo TV, 6 December 2019) (“BNP-M threatens to leave coalition government,” Daily Business World, 6 December 2019)

Almost close to two years since PTI formed the government at the national level, the Balochistan National Party – Mengal (BNP-M) left the coalition, with Sardar Akhtar Mengal announcing the decision in the Parliament.

In the Parliament with 342 seats, the PTI has 156 seats. The other coalition partners – MQM-P (7), PML-Q (5), BAP (5), and GDA (3) along with a few other parties and independents bring the necessary number for the PTI to have a comfortable 179. However, one has to remember the PML-Q threatened to withdraw; used it as blackmail to draw a few concessions. The MQM-P walked out of the coalition in January 2020, only to come back in March 2020.

The BNP-M is one of the two political parties from Balochistan that support the PTI. The other is Balochistan Awami Party, that was formed on the eve of elections – primarily the erstwhile members of the PML-N. The BAP has five seats in the National Assembly. In the Baloch legislative assembly, the BAP has the lead with 24 seats, supported by the PTI with seven seats. BNP-M has ten seats in the 65 members Baloch provincial assembly.

The primary problem of the BNP-M to leave the PTI from the national coalition is the failure of the latter to address the commitments to Balochistan, especially on the disappearances. According to Dawn, the "BNP-M and the PTI had signed a six-point memorandum of understanding in August 2018 for an alliance at the centre. The six points were: recovery of missing persons, implementation of NAP, observance of six per cent quota for Balochistan in federal government departments, immediate repatriation of Afghan refugees and construction of dams in the province to resolve the acute water crisis." ("Setback for PTI as BNP-M quits ruling alliance," Dawn, 18 June 2020). 

Sardar Mengal also complained about the reactivation of death squads, and the failure to form a peace committee to discuss the Baloch issue.

The primary issue seems to be the failure of the PTI government to address the issue of disappearances in Balochistan. This is an emotional issue for the Baloch; Since the BNP-M's support base is predominantly provincial and from the Baloch, the party has to take a stance.

Will the BNP-M return, as the PML-Q and MQM-P did? For both the PML-Q and MQM-P, the demands were more in terms of extracting what they wanted from the coalition at the local level. For the BNP-M, disappearances are both an emotional and political issue. For PTI, the issue is not; besides, it has another Baloch partner in the coalition.

More importantly, the PTI has to look at what the Deep State wants in terms the Baloch disappearances than a coalition partner, with just four seats, and from Balochistan.

Image Source: Dawn

In Focus

THE SINDH BUDGET
Focus on Govt employee salaries, social protection, health, education, and locust control

On 17 June, Sindh finance minister and CM Syed Murad Ali Shah presented the Rs1,241.13 billion budget (with a deficit of Rs18.38 billion) for FY2020-21 in the provincial assembly. 

CM Shah announced a 10 per cent increase in govt employees' salaries; social protection COVID-19-related pro-poor package called "Social Protection and Economic Sustainability" worth Rs34.2 billion; a 16 per cent increase in Health allocation; 10 per cent increase for the education sector; Rs440 billion earmark for locust control; and risk allowances for health practitioners and personnel fighting the pandemic. 

The budget estimates Rs39.19 billion for capital expenditure, Rs232.94 billion for development expenditure (only 33 per cent earmarked for development projects), and Rs968.99 billion for non-development expenditure (with a restriction of seven per cent for the latter). Mr Shah also said that overall federal receipts for this year were abridged by nine per cent or Rs71.72 billion in comparison to FY2019-20. ("Only 33% of local govt funds allocated for development in Sindh," The Express Tribune, 18 June 2020)

The budget 2020-21 does not introduce any new taxes. It also reduces the Annual Development Plan (ADP) to Rs232.9 billion (a drastic 18.8 per cent slash). The reduction has been due to low inflows from the Center. As reported by The Tribune, the budget earmarks Rs21.08 billion for education (with Rs451m dedicated for distance learning); Rs23.5 billion for the health sector; Rs17.02billion for agriculture and irrigation (in addition to Rs14.14 billion of foreign project assistance); Rs666 million for the Sindh police and province's jails; Rs12.17 billion for the local government department; Rs233 million for social welfare (in addition to Rs3.91 billion under ADP and Rs3.3 billion foreign project assistance); Rs120 million for women's development (and Rs117 million of foreign project assistance); Rs1 billion for energy department (along with Rs3.3 billion in foreign project assistance); and Rs6.46 billion for the transport sector (along with Rs5.68 billion of foreign project assistance). ("Sindh slashes development funds by 18.8%," The Express Tribune, 18 June 2020) ("Sindh sets aside Rs451 million for distance learning," The Express Tribune, 18 June 2020) ("Sindh earmarks Rs14.8b for agriculture," The Express Tribune, 18 June 2020)

Sindh's ADP 2020-21 allots 85 per cent to ongoing schemes and remaining to new ventures. The government also expects Foreign Projects Assistance to contribute Rs54.6 billion and Federal PSDP to contribute Rs8.3 billion to 10 ongoing schemes. ("Budget 2020-21: No new taxes as Sindh presents Rs1.24tr budget," Dawn, 18 June 2020) ("BUDGET 2020-21: Sindh reduces ADP to Rs232.9bn," Dawn, 18 June 2020)

Meanwhile, Sindh Assembly's Opposition, Grand Democratic Alliance, and the PTI conducted a noisy protest.

In Brief

COVID-19
Coronavirus cases surge in Punjab
The Fatalities count has been on the increasing range in Punjab. So far 1,149 deaths with confirmed cases of 58,239 only in the province of Punjab, second highest is recorded in Lahore with 1,642 new cases. According to the health department, 375,523 tests have taken place and 17,780 cases have recovered till now. ("68 more die from corona in Punjab," The News International, 18 June 2020)
 

INTERNAL
PM calls for 18th amendment to be revised
On the 18th amendment, PM Imran Khan stated that he had no intention of rolling back the devolution plan but clearly stated his view of reviewing the 10-year-old reforms which, he said "needed to be fixed" adding that there are several things that are not practical with it. Further, also adding that concept of the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award also "carries anomalies". (Imran Ayub, "18th Amendment needs to be 'reviewed': PM," Dawn, 18 June 2020) While addressing media in Karachi, he added that some federal subjects were wrongly devolved to the provinces under the 18th amendment, thus turning the chief minister into a dictator, to which he based his argument that some revision needs to be made. ("18th Amend turned CM into dictator: PM," The News International, 18 June 2020)

ECONOMY
Gwadar Port concession offered only for 20-year tax holiday 
On 16 June, the maritime affairs secretary disclosed that the original Gwadar Port concession agreement offered only 20-year and not 40-year tax holiday to port operators and that there was no provision for extending the tax concession to sub-contractors. This disclosure came after the Senate Standing Committee on Finance, had asked the maritime affairs secretary to appear before it as a day earlier the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) told the committee that it proposed up to 40-year tax holiday for Gwadar Port operators, its contractors, and sub-contractors on the recommendation of the maritime affairs ministry, however, maritime affairs secretary revealed that there was no clause in the port concession agreement that guaranteed 40-year tax holiday and also the sub-contractors were not eligible for any tax concession. (Shahbaz Rana, "Gwadar agreement: No clause for 40-year tax holiday," Dawn, 18 June 2020)

ON BUDGET 2020
Uncertainty in the Pakistan Budget
The editorial in Dawn identifies two major challenges to the budget and the economic survey. Firstly, the target of every budget is to meet its revenue, but, in the case of Pakistan, there is no revenue plan to collect back the lent trillions to the provinces. The National Finance Commission award was Rs3.7tr but, the expenditure on debt servicing and defence alone has summed to Rs4.235tr. Therefore, it reduces the possibility of payback from the states as they cannot afford to pay creditors or armed forces or salaries. Secondly, the blame game between political party's makes the discussion of the budget strangled. One has to know that any decision was taken for the economy; it always times to show effect. So, in case of quick growth can disappear quickly as well. If this growth was through borrowing or a trade deficit, then it doesn't square to the revenue. The borrowings in the last two years have equated to the borrowings of the last ten years, but the government does not have an explanation for this. The only difference is the shift in nature from short term to long term, thus with increased debts and no revenue to meet it clearly states the ambiguity of the Pakistan economy in the long run. (Khurram Husain, "Budgeting on hope," Dawn, 18 June 2020)

The cutdown in the budget for Education and Health sector
The budget released lacks two vital factors that impact the living of people in Pakistan. It is the education and health sectors, with 2,650 deaths till now the budget has seriously fallen short in allocating budget to these fields. Although the government budget is needed in other sectors like debt service and defence, the cutdown to education and health sector seem drastic without means to meet the UN standards and marks the lowest in South Asia. The opinion gives the example of the State of Kerala for building its literacy rate and the strong efficiency of Cuba and Vietnam countries which were under severe sanctions but have excelled in healthcare with the capacity to provide facilities to 87 per cent of its people. Therefore, the Pakistan government must reconsider these examples and allocate budget to make people aware and keep them safe. Additionally, it should take measures to give technological facilities to help students for higher learning and better health equipment for people. (Kamila Hyat, "Where do the people really stand?" The News International, 18 June 2020)

Abid Hasan redrafts the budget of Pakistan
An opinion in the News International titled "Cleaning up the budget" by Abid Hasan, starts by saying that the "Prime Minister has not displayed the leadership to pull Pakistan out of the crisis." The first argument placed is the federal government has completely become dependent upon the borrowings, and its expenses have doubled in recent years. Secondly, the budget is deeply flawed with bad taxes and wasteful expenses. Thirdly the challenge of drafting a budget at the time of crisis has been met shortly by the economic team and seems like a usual business budget. Abid Hasan presses on to impose a one-time 'Corona Tax' on the elite group. This contains five pointers, first, a one per cent tax on all types of assets to be levied exceeds 10 million rupees because Pakistan has the lowest property taxes in the world. Second, a 10 per cent tax to be put on inheritance over 10 million rupees. Third, regardless of holding period a 30 per cent Capital Gains on the sale of shares over 10 million rupees and property valuing above 20 million rupees. Fourth, 30 per cent tax on the dividends that exceed one million rupees. Finally, a 'symbolic' 50 per cent tax on salaries of lawmakers and senior military officers and also to cut down the funding of cars and perks for a year. Through this, the country can achieve at least 300-350 billion rupees. This will also make the elites learn that without helping the poor, the survival of the rich is also narrowed. (Abid Hasan, "Cleaning up the budget," The News International, 18 June 2020)

On Pakistan Budget 2020, also read...

"Budget without a plan," Dawn, 14 June 2020

"Budget 2020-21," The News International, 13 June 2020

Mubarak Zeb Khan, "Budget 2020-21: Finance bill shows all relief, no clear revenue plan," Dawn, 13 June 2020

Farhan Bokhari, "Future without vision?" The News International, 17 June 2020

Senator A Rehman Malik, "Covid-19 friendly, public unfriendly budget 20-21," The News International, 17 June 2020

"A rolling budget?" The Express Tribune, 13 June 2020

Hasaan Khawar, "Homeopathic budget," The Express Tribune, 16 June 2020

Abid Hasan, "Cleaning up the budget," The Express Tribune, 18 June 2020

Khurram Husain, "Budgeting on hope," Dawn, 18 June 2020         

Kamila Hyat, "Where do the people really stand?" The News International, 18 June 2020

ON INDIA
Indian shelling across the LoC kills four civilians 
On 17 June, a woman and three young boys were killed while another person was injured in two areas of PoK by Indian shelling from across the Line of Control (LoC). The incident took place while the victims were busy doing their daily routine. Further, since the shell exploded very close to the victims, there was hardly any part of their bodies that had not been pierced or cut by the shrapnel. The latest casualties have pushed the death toll to 12 in PoK for the current, while at least 102 other civilians have sustained injuries. PoK President and Prime Minister have strongly condemned "unprovoked" ceasefire violations. (Tariq Naqash, "Woman, three boys killed in Indian shelling," Dawn, 18 June 2020)

Will continue foiling Indian designs against Pakistan: ISPR
The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) released a press statement stating that the army would continue to foil any plans against Pakistan by India and will continue exposing the human rights abuses in occupied Kashmir along with terrorist links. Emphasis was also made on diplomatically and politically unmasking India at the international forums. Further, the strategy adopted seems to resemble the government plan for challenging Indian credentials as it prepares to take up a seat at the United Nations Security Council as a non-permanent member for the 2021-22 term. (Baqir Sajjad Syed, "Army vows to continue foiling Indian designs," Dawn, 18 June 2020)

ON INDIA-CHINA BORDER TENSIONS
India must learn to peacefully coexist with all its neighbours in the spirit of harmony and mutual respect: Editorial
An editorial in the Dawn titled "China-India clash," is critical of the recent development that has occurred along the LAC between China and India. Although there was no firing from both sides, the clash resulted in deadly fatalities. Given the recent development along the borders, the editorial is critical of India's role stating the country has a history of bullying its neighbours and trying to play regional hegemon. Further, it stated that although India may harbour superpower delusions and throw its weight around the region, bur militarily and economically, India cannot be compared to China who is far superior, thus India proceeds with far more caution on this front. Further, India must learn to peacefully coexist with all its neighbours, including solving all disputes through dialogue. The editorial concludes by stating that in a region with three nuclear states, war is not an option, suggesting that if India pursues the policy of live and let live, it would be a much better option for South Asia. ("China-India clash," Dawn, 18 June 2020)

India and China agree to abide by existing bilateral agreements after deadly clash 
After the deadly clashes on the Sino-Indian boundary in Ladakh, both foreign ministers from India and China held a telephonic conversation agreeing to abide by existing bilateral agreements to ensure peace and tranquillity on their disputed Himalayan border. Additionally, they "agreed that the overall situation would be handled responsibly, and both sides would implement the disengagement understanding of 6 June." Further, both sides have agreed that neither side would take any action to escalate matters. (Jawed Naqvi, "India, China agree to restore tranquillity on border," Dawn, 18 June 2020)

Foreign Minister comments on India-China
The Foreign minister of Pakistan has commented that "India's Hindutva agenda and intransigence will destroy peace and security in the region." He said that it was the stubbornness of India that has caused the border problem and the Chinese have been easy to settle the issue. As per the minister, the 3500 km area of Tibet and Ladakh was under China and if India crosses over it's not allowable. (Shafqat Ali, "India's Hindutva agenda flaring China-India tension: Pakistan," The Nation, 18 June 2020) The blame has come upon the Hindutva Philosophy of the government of India for the border problem and stated that "Whenever India follows this [Hindutva] ideology and shows this stubbornness, situation in the region will deteriorate". He mentioned that violations in the Line of control must get the attention of the international community. (Anadolu Agency, "Pakistan throws weight behind China on border tensions with India," The Express Tribune, 18 June 2020)

Border tensions in Galwan Valley
The standoff between India and China seems to be prolonged without any settlement, and Galwan Valley has become the hot spot for skirmishes. The Hindu Nationalist government has turned more assertive with all its neighbours, especially Kashmir. The editorial states that India and China being two powers with military capabilities can provoke war and diminish peace in the region. It suggests that this situation must not arise and to be avoided at all means. ("China-India standoff," The News International, 18 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

Editorial
Three Military Chiefs meet the ISI Chief for a regional briefing:
What did they discuss?

On Tuesday (16 June 2020), in a rare development, the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) General Nadeem Raza, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa, Chief of Naval Staff (CNS) Admiral Zafar Mehmood Abbasi and Chief of Air Staff (CAS) Air Chief Marshal Mujahid Anwar Khan visited the ISI headquarters.

According to an ISPR brief, a "comprehensive briefing was given to military leadership on the regional security issues." The special focus, according to the release, was the situation in LoC and J&K.

Why would the three Chiefs along with the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) meet now? What "regional security issue" they would have discussed? Since there is no available information in the public domain, one could only make a reasonable guess.

The meeting comes in the background of the American efforts to bring the Afghan leadership and the Taliban to the negotiation table in Doha. US Special Envoy Khalilzad visited Islamabad to have a one-to-one meeting with Gen Bajwa early this month. Following the meeting, Gen Bajwa, along with Lieutenant General Faiz Hamid, the Director-General of the ISI visited Kabul to meet with Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah. For Pakistan, both are important regional security developments – the intra-Afghan dialogue, and Af-Pak dialogue.

The meeting also comes in the background of increased anxiety within Pakistan about India's actions within J&K. Imran Khan and Shah Mehmood Qureshi (Pakistan's foreign minister) have repeatedly been talking about Modi's refusal to talk to Pakistan, oppressive measures in J&K, and a false flag operation by India to divert the global opinion on J&K.

The meeting also comes in the background of India becoming the UNSC non-permanent member. Though Qureshi made statements that the heavens would not fall if India becomes so, there has been a palpitation within Pakistan.

But, the most important discussion yesterday should have been what is happening along the India-China and India-Nepal borders, especially the former. One could get a sense from the editorials and statements in Pakistan media during the recent weeks about India-China border confrontation. It was seen as an unwanted provocation, bullying and playing into the US hands. A section within Pakistan would even want the two sides to clash, and may even see it as an opening. On the India-Nepal border differences, the projection was of India as a regional villain, having problems with all its neighbours.

The most important question that New Delhi has to ask is how Pakistan would respond, if the border clashes with China become more intense? If the LAC becomes unstable for India, how would Pakistan want the LoC to be?

Perhaps India should do a quick gaming exercise on the above question.

Image Source: Dawn

In Focus

THE PUNJAB BUDGET
Punjab's economy will depend on the federal government success in achieving its tax target: Editorial
An editorial in the Dawn title "Punjab Budget," comments on the significant proposals in Punjab's budget for the fiscal year 2020-21. The budget proposes to do a much better job in dealing with the pandemic, the economy, and business. Further, the budget is looking at offering substantial incentives for the construction industry, tax exemptions to private investors interested, and community development work for generating employment. The purpose of these measures is to amplify the provincial economy and create more employment. However, much will depend on the federal government reaching its tax target and thereafter transfer to the provinces their divisible tax pool which is indicated in the federal budget. ("Punjab budget," Dawn, 17 June 2020)

Punjab's budget a mixed bag of bad and good: Editorial
An editorial in the News International stated that Punjab's budget for 2020-21 is a mixed bag of bad and good news. Although highlighting the significant proposals made by the provincial government, the editorial said that the disappointing news is the production sector in Punjab, which is the backbone of the province has been allocated only 17 billion rupees, further, another cause of concern is the allocation of only 9 billion rupees for the forest department and 13 billion rupees to the livestock sector, again two very important sectors of Punjab economy. The editorial concludes by stating that one only hopes that the Punjab government will manage its economy and finances better than the federal government. ("Punjab budget," The News International, 17 June 2020)

Punjab budget is only for Lodhran, DG Khan and Mianwali: PLM-N
While addressing a joint press conference, the General Secretary PML-N Punjab and spokesperson stated that the Punjab budget is only for Lodhran, DG Khan and Mianwali. They added that the 'Imrania empire' and 'Buzdari government' have ignored Lahorites, further stating that the PTI government could not continue the ongoing development projects. Criticising the PTI government, the PLM-N leaders claimed that the former has not allocated and done enough when it comes to the development projects, destroyed the biggest project of forests in South Punjab, failed to provide cotton seeds to farmers drive and has now reduced education budget among others. ("Budget is only for Lodhran, DG Khan, Mianwali: PML-N," The News International, 17 June 2020)

In Brief

COVID-19
111 COVID-19 deaths in 24 hours
On 16 June, the country resisted 111 deaths in a single day with confirmed cases rising to 4445. Several areas in major cities across the country, including Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad, underwent a complete lockdown after this news was reported. With the staggering rise in the spread of the virus, the local administration has asked the residents to save essential commodities for daily use during the next 48 hours due to the complete lockdown being imposed. Meanwhile, in line with the NCOC directions, the federal government has decided to impose lockdown in 20 cities across the country. ("Corona kills 111 more in one day," The News International, 17 June 2020)

A 15-day extension of lockdown in Balochistan
On 16 June, the Department on Home and Tribal Affairs issued a notice stating that the smart lockdown will be extended in the province for another 15 days. The Smart Lockdown is to continue till 30 June in Quetta and other parts of the province. Further, the notice stated that all Standard operating procedures (SOPs) and resections that were announced earlier for allowing business activities and resuming all kinds of transport would, however, remain in force. This notice comes after the National Coordination and Operation Centre had included Quetta in the list of 20 cities identified as potential Covid-19 hotspots. (Saleem Shahid "Lockdown extended for 15 days in Balochistan," Dawn, 17 June 2020)

INTERNAL
Justice Isa case: SC's proposal
On 16 June, the Supreme Court proposed the consideration of exhausting tax remedies for the non-declaration of three offshore properties by Judge Isa's wife as a way out to the federal government; sending a clear message regarding the collapse of the presidential reference on the grounds of legal defects. SC said if the wife provided satisfactory answers to FBR's questions, the reference could be concluded. The federal government's representative, Minister-turned-lawyer Dr Farogh Nasim sought a day's time to respond to the proposal. ("SC suggests way out to govt in Justice Isa case", Dawn, 17 June 2020)

PM's visits Sindh after three months
On 16 June, Prime Minister Imran Khan visited Sindh after over three months. As per the PM's Office, the visit will encompass meetings with allies, leaders of PTI and leading businessmen and a stopover at Larkana's Ehsaas Centre. The PM also held a meeting with Sindh Assembly's Opposition Leader Firdous Shamim Naqvi, Aftab Siddiqi, Haleem Adil Sheikh and Karachi's other PTI leaders. Minister for Privatisation Muhammadmian Soomro, Federal Minister for Maritime Affairs Ali Zaidi, SAPM on Poverty Alleviation and Social Safety Sania Nishtar and SAPM on Information and Broadcasting retired Lt Gen Asim Saleem Bajwa has accompanied the PM. ("PM's first visit to Karachi in three months," Dawn, 17 June 2020)

200 military court convictions set aside by Peshawar High Court 
PHC set aside 200 convictions of suspected militants or terrorists by military courts, ordering relevant authorities to free them if not needed in other cases. PHC issued a short order for suspects' release. They were mostly sentenced to death or given various prison terms, including life sentence. However, the bench suspended the hearing of over 100 petitions as the Ministry of Defence had not produced relevant records. ("PHC sets aside 200 convictions by military courts," Dawn, 17 June 2020)

ECONOMY
Unemployment will reach 6.65m in 2020-21
As per the federal government's annual plan 2020-21, Pakistan has the world's ninth-largest labour force, but unemployment would surge to 6.65 million in FY 2020-21, compared to the previous fiscal year's 5.8 million. Jobless graduates are increasing due to the mismatch between imparted education and societal/economic needs. The plan sees a generation of productive, decent, remunerative employment as a necessity. Skill development for opening new and wider avenues for youth employment is also on the agenda. ("Number of jobless people to reach 6.65m in 2020-21," Dawn, 17 June 2020)

ON BUDGET 2020
The task of preparing Pakistan's federal budget is quite a complicated one: Opinion
An opinion in the News International titled "Reading the budget," by Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri stated that the task of preparing Pakistan's federal budget is quite a complicated one, especially in Pakistan since the needs always outrun resources. He analysis the needs side with four Ds: debt servicing, defence, day to day administration and development, and the resources side having federal revenues and borrowing. Further, he states that the budget this year has an additional factor, COVID-19. The impact of the pandemic has left the policymakers terming the 2020-21 budget as one concerned more with "survival". He believes that in the next 12 months, Pakistan will have to deal with four Ls along with the four Ds. These are lives, livelihoods, lockdown, and locusts.

Further, he comments on the external part of the resource side becomes important, highlights the role of the IMF. However, the government is unlikely to reach the demands of the IMF; thus they may have to rely on more borrowing from both domestic and external sources. He states that even though the situation may seem grim, it is extremely important that the government expands, rather than contracts. The author concluded stating that this however does not require a massive policy shift as the country has been financing the four Ds through borrowing for decades, what is required now is only some more borrowing to finance the four Ls. (Dr. Abid Qaiyum Suleri, "Reading the budget," The News International, 17 June 2020)

On Pakistan Budget 2020, also read...
“Budget without a plan,” Dawn, 14 June 2020
“Budget 2020-21,” The News International, 13 June 2020
Mubarak Zeb Khan, “Budget 2020-21: Finance bill shows all relief, no clear revenue plan,” Dawn, 13 June 2020
Farhan Bokhari, “Future without vision?,” The  News International, 17 June 2020
Senator A Rehman Malik, “Covid-19 friendly, public unfriendly budget 20-21,” The  News International, 17 June 2020
“A rolling budget?,” The Express Tribune, 13 June 2020
Hasaan Khawar, “Homeopathic budget,” The Express Tribune, 16 June 2020

ON INDIA
The accident in Islamabad should be handled with care: Editorial
An editorial in the Dawn titled "Islamabad accident," expresses concern over the recent episode of the accident in Islamabad where two Indian High Commission staffers, stating that the matter should be handled maturely and calmly. The editorial states that given the frosty tensions between the two countries, this matter must be properly investigated and should not be blown up out of proportion and that the Indian media should refrain from throwing accusations that can further cause tensions to rise. Further, the editorial says that despite a massive gap in the trust deficit between both capitals, well-established diplomats from both sides should handle the situation through official channels instead of engaging in media trials, to defuse the matter calmly. ("Islamabad accident," Dawn, 17 June 2020)

Pakistan FO accuses two Indian HC officials of committing "serious offences"
The Foreign Office released a statement accusing two Indian High Commission employees (Dwimu Brahma and Selvadas Paul) of involvement in a hit-and-run accident and possessing fake currency worth Rs10,000. The FO, calling them "serious offences", said the Indian High Commission was reminded that "illegal actions and reckless conduct" by the two employees was "against the law and established diplomatic norms". India's MEA labelled the measures undertaken by police after the incident as "forcible abduction" and accused Pakistan of detaining them "in illegal custody for more than 10 hours". ("Two Indian HC employees committed serious offences: FO," Dawn, 17 June 2020)

FM Mahmood Qureishi must clarify UNSC remarks: "AJK" PM
"AJK" Prime Minister Raja Farooq Haider said Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi's statement that "heavens will not fall if India becomes Security Council member is highly incautious." Previously, the FM said it was a concern for Kashmiris as India has rejected various UN resolutions on Kashmir, but not for Pakistan as the nation had also served the position several times in the past. ("AJK PM asks Qureshi to clarify his UNSC remarks," Dawn, 17 June 2020)

A Joint political committee formed to deal with the Kashmir dispute
The Foreign Minister has announced a plan to form a political committee as a joint initiative to put forward the issues that hinder national interests, particularly for the Kashmir dispute. The government has opened doors for other parties in Pakistan including PML-N, PPP, JUI (F), and Awami National Party to join the committee. So far Pakistan completely disagrees with India's position in Kashmir and the minister also said that at the international level, the discussion of Kashmir issue happens only two times in a year even after pressure from its leader. This committee is seen as a way to project their unified movement for Kashmir. (Javaid-ur-Rahman, "Political body being formed for Kashmir dispute: FM," The Nation, 17 June 2020)

The editorial in Express Tribune brings out the challenges of India in the border dispute
Foreign Minister Qureshi recently tweeted that India was less focused on the border dispute while taking care of the poor. The editorial has said that Prime Minister Modi's government is starting to lose in the border issues, especially with China. This states that this way of ceding the land might not be good for the country and Pakistan's growing ties with China must also be noted by India as any fight with Pakistan will also bring confrontations. The article ends by saying that India is in a difficult position as it cannot fight with two countries simultaneously. ("Modi's war hysteria," The Express Tribune, 17 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

In Focus
Punjab Budget 2020-21: Development allocation up by 9.42 per cent

On 15 June, the Punjab provincial government’s Finance Minister Makhdoom Hashim Jawan Bakht presented the Rs2.24 trillion relief-laden tax-free budget for FY2020-21. Punjab’s budget is being hailed as a pro-business budget. The key investments areas are socio-economic revival, livelihood security, health infrastructure, human capital development, food security, and education. (“Budget 2020-21: Rs56 billion tax relief for corona-hit businesses,” Dawn, 16 June 2020)

As per the provincial budget data, social sector receives 29 per cent; infrastructure development 23 per cent; special initiatives 14 per cent; services sector 13 per cent; production sector 5 per cent and others 15 per cent. (“BUDGET 2020-21: Punjab increases development budget by 9.42pc,” Dawn, 16 June 2020)
Bakht also revealed the Rs337 billion worth Annual Development Programme (ADP); an initiative to counter economic, health and education crises faced by the province. The 9.42 per cent hike (from FY2019-20’s Rs308 billion) comes with an emphasis on economic stimulus (Punjab Economic Stimulus Programme – PSEP) during the pandemic related lull. A total of Rs47bn is allocated for the PSEP – Rs30bn to ensure sustainable livelihood opportunities; Rs8bn for skill training and Micro Small Medium Enterprise sector; and Rs9bn for Communicable Disease Programme. 35 per cent of the ADP is reserved for uplifting living standards of 11 south Punjab districts.

Owing the pandemic related irregularities in the education sector, Taleem Ghar Initiative was allocated Rs80 million for generating content for distant learning, enhancing digital infrastructure and identification of missed School Learning Outcomes. For the agriculture sector, the Punjab government commenced the Locust Control Operation and Allied Matters in Cholistan Initiative to combat the food security threat; announced the new Rural Enterprises in Agriculture Development initiative to generate rural employment, income and private investment; but, reduced allocations from last year’s Rs15.5bn to Rs8.065bn. Additionally, the Health Insurance Programme has been allocated Rs12bn to increase medical accessibility for the poor; 1,348 water supply and sanitation schemes received a total of Rs11.86bn; and the Punjab Abe-Pak Authority (in charge of clean drinking water) received Rs2.5bn. (“Rs2bn for south Punjab poverty fighting plan,” Dawn, 16 June 2020) (“Punjab to facilitate small businesses despite uncertainty,” Dawn, 15 June 2020)

FM Bhakt also introduced the 2020 Finance Bill and presented the Supplementary Budget statement (2019-20). Punjab’s CM, who was in attendance, congratulated the FM; said the budget set realistic goals and priorities keeping public needs in mind; lamented over the Opposition’s lack of cooperation; and called for liaison amid assembly members. (“Punjab presents pro-business budget,” The Nation, 16 June 2020)

Meanwhile, the PML-N legislators led by Opposition Leader Hamza Shehbaz staged protests, created a ruckus and walked out during the budget speech.

The Opposition was triggered when PML-N’s Rana Mashood Ahmed Khan was not allowed to speak on a point of order. (“Opp protests during budget speech,” The News International, 16 June 2020) Later, the PMLN’s spokesperson said that, the Opposition rejected the “unrealistic and anti-people” Punjab budget 2020-21. Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) called it the capitalists’ budget. CM Usman Buzdar expensive computerisation of the land records in DG Khan, the minister’s hometown, was also questioned. (“Opp calls budget anti-people, unrealistic,” Dawn, 16 June 2020)

Image Source: Dawn

In Brief

COVID-19
Virus hotspots identified in 20 cities
As the COVID-19 cases in the country are on the rise, the government has announced that 20 cities have been identified as potential Covid-19 hotspots where restrictive measures will be implemented to contain the virus as per PM Imran Khan’s smart lockdown policy. Of the 20 cities, six are in Sindh, eight in Punjab, four in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Quetta and Islamabad respectively. Further, Special Assistant to Prime Minister (SAPM) on Health stated that the idea behind closing the areas was to prevent the chances of transmission of the virus from one area to another. (Ikram Junaidi, “Govt identifies virus hotspots in 20 cities,” Dawn, 16 June 2020)

Satisfied with virus testing kits and PEE: PM
While presiding over a meeting to review the COVID situation, PM Imran Khan expressed his satisfaction over the availability of coronavirus testing kits and Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs). However, he took notice of the non-availability of some medicines and injections being used for the treatment of Covid-19 patients and instructed the NDMA to look into the matter. Further, he directed all provinces to impose the smart lockdown in areas that are reporting a high number of cases and he urged the people to adopt the preventive measures that have been put in place to curb the pandemic. (Syed Irfan Raza, “PM satisfied with virus testing kits, PPE availability” Dawn, 16 June 2020)

The Covid-19 projections for Pakistan
The coronavirus cases at present have reached 150,000 and the government has estimated twice the number to be affected by the end of July month. Whereas the Imperial College London simulation has predicted 2.2 million deaths in Pakistan by June 2021. They also suggest that with interventions and mitigation, the loss can be reduced to 40 per cent. While the government has aimed to increase its testing capacity by 100,000 tests per day, the editorial questions if these steps would suffice in handling the Covis-19 rather than ensuring the following of SOPs. It demands the government to work-out the relations with the opposition party and maintain unity with provinces to produce a strategy for the situation. (“Troubling projections,” Dawn, 16 June 2020

Prime Minister announces smart lockdown strategy
The National Command and Operation Center (NCOC) has decided to implement a smart lockdown plan to counter Covid-19. As the Coronavirus cases hike in Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, Rawalpindi, and other 20 cities have been identified and will be imposed under smart lockdown. In the recent meeting, the Prime Minister has directed to re-look into COVID-19 facilities, to force ensure the following of SOP’s and to make sure the availability of medicines and injections in those cities. (“Smarter lockdown returns to 20 cities,” The News International, 16 June 2020)

INTERNAL
Govt ready to face consequence in Justice Isa case
On 15 June, the federal government’s counsel informed the Supreme Court regarding presidential reference against Justice Qazi Faez Isa, the government was ready to face the consequences of failure to prove misconduct but emphasized that the failure would be across the board. Further, the counsel stated that “It seems as if the president, the prime minister, and the former law minister are on trial when the judge should have been on trial.” This statement was made after an observation was made by one of the Justice during the hearing stating that there was no denying that judges were accountable but so was the federal government and if the latter could not qualify the reference then the accountability would extend even further. (Nasir Iqbal, “Govt ready to face consequences in Isa case, counsel tells SC,” Dawn, 16 June 2020)

The need for a talk with Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM)
The Pakistan government has called for cooperative talks with Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement, it is an organisation that works for the rights of Pakhtuns. The Leader of the group has said that there has been negligence in the past to their grievances and they will see this is as a way to redress the issues. The editorial states that it was the country’s responsibility to bring cooperative relationships across the province to address the complaints of the people and this is a good initiative to bring the discussion to the table. (“Talking to the PTM,” Dawn, 16 June 2020)

EXTERNAL
Restrictions on imports have caused massive losses for Afghan traders
Afghan traded have stated that the restrictions imposed on the import of fresh fruits and vegetables by Pakistan have caused huge losses for them. The Afghan Traders’ Union stated that most of the exports from Afghanistan are perishable goods that have been prohibited from entering the country due to the coronavirus. However, good from Pakistan continue to be exported to Afghanistan amidst hundreds of trucks loaded with fresh fruits and vegetables destined for Pakistan and India which lie stranded at the main Chaman and Torkham crossing points. Trade body Chairman told Anadolu Agency that the restrictions have cost Afghan traders losses worth more than 100 million dollars. (Anadolu Agency, “Afghan traders decry curbs on imports by Pakistan,” The Express Tribune, 16 June 2020)

The bilateral mechanism between China and Pakistan builds
The Minister of Planning and Development has announced that China has decided to be part of the Independent power producers (ISSP) under the Bilateral mechanism. The government has allocated Rs77 billion for various projects such as roads, railways, and construction as a part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). He stated that “China had offered about 85 per cent financing for the project while we wanted its share increased to 90 per cent” (Khaleeq Kiani, “Provinces asked to chip in Rs110bn for uplift of tribal regions, DHQ hospitals,” Dawn, 16 June 2020)

Intra-Afghan dialogue: The decider
A dialogue has been agreed between the Afghan government and the Taliban group which will be convened in Qatar. There have been regressive tensions in terms of release of the prisoners and it is expected from the Taliban to release prisoners before this meeting. In the case of Kabul government, it has released 600 Taliban prisoners so far but the result has only been killing 400 government employees in Kabul. The editorial states that this dialogue must turn into peace talks as the possibility to hold the ceasefire is very low until a political settlement is achieved to end the conflict. (“Intra-Afghan talks,” The News International, 16 June 2020)

ON INDIA
India’s entry to the UNSC ‘, not a moment of rejoice, but concern’: FM Qureshi
On 15 June, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi stated that India becoming the non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) was ‘not a moment of rejoice, but concern.’ While talking to the media he brought out that India has for long been ignoring the resolutions of UNSC on Kashmir leading to the oppression of many Kashmiris. Further, he said “Heavens will not fall if India becomes a UNSC member,” adding that Pakistan had also served at the same position previously seven times. (“FM Qureshi concerned over India’s entry to UNSC,” The Express Tribune, 16 June 2020)

India’s Non-Alignment 2.0 seeks to provide a “third option”
The geopolitical tensions between China and India strike again in May in the Ladakh region. As the relations between the US and India build along with the pressure to maintain its diplomacy with the US, India cannot depend on its self-reliance strategy for the long term. It might get pushed to fall with the US or support China, hence the NAM 2.0 means a challenge to India to keep up with both powers and also develop its economy. The editorial ends by stating that the strategy of self-reliance and non-alignment can be a disaster with unilateral action. (Haider Zafar, “The instability of India’s non-alignment agenda,” The Nation, 16 June 2020)

Detention of two Indian High Commission triggers India-Pakistan spat
The Detention of two Indian High Commission employees after a road accident in Islamabad has sparked diplomatic tension between the two neighbours. The two officials were booked by the police for reckless driving, causing injury due to negligent driving, and possessing fake currency. Given the recent development between the two countries, the situation was made to look like a tit-for-tat response by Pakistani authorities for the detention and expulsion of two Pakistan High Commission staffers by India on 31 May. (Baqir Sajjad Syed and Munawer Azeem, “Road accident in Islamabad triggers India-Pakistan spat,” Dawn, 16 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

Pervez Khattak, the defence minister of Pakistan, has offered a dialogue with the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM). According to a statement made by him, "We Pakhtoons belong to the same province thus we should collectively work for the development of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa." ("Govt again offers dialogue to estranged PTM," Dawn, 15 June 2020)

Mohsin Dawar, one of the leaders of the PTM leader and a member of the National Assembly, in a tweet, responded positively to the statement from the defence minister: "We welcome Government's dialogue offer. PTM strongly believes that dialogue is the only way out & we are always open to it. But we are also aware of the failures of such efforts in the past. The need is for the Government to be represented by those who have the power to implement agreements."

Given the unrest and continuing violence in the erstwhile FATA regions, especially in Waziristan, a dialogue between the Government and the PTM is imperative. This should have been done earlier, or when Khattak announced such an offer last year. Unfortunately, the Government scuttled the idea, by restricting with a precondition, that the PTM members should have a Pakistan agenda. Such a position gives the impression that the PTM has an anti-Pakistan agenda.

PTM is more of a social and political movement by the young Pashtuns. Certainly, it is not a separatist movement. Second, the PTM is a non-violent movement focussing on the rights of Pashtuns as equal citizens of Pakistan, better social equation between the different nations within, and pursue a serious agenda to mainstream the erstwhile tribal regions under the FATA.

It was the Establishment that saw the rise of the PTM as a threat, as the latter demanded the removal of troops from the erstwhile FATA region, and bring an end to the checkpoints. The Deep State went on an overdrive, by blacking out the movement's meetings and demands in the media, and blacklisting the movement as anti-Pakistani. Independent analysts and editorials underlined the pressure on media from the Deep State not to give coverage on the PTM.

The problem is not with the PTM, but about the PTM by the Deep State.

The PTI government should take charge of the dialogue and make it a political one, and talk to the PTM. If it wants to be a mouthpiece of the Deep State, or let the latter to set the agenda and the outcome, the dialogue would fall apart. Pakistan can always blame India for influencing the PTM!

Second, the PTI should also work on a societal dialogue between the multiple nations – the Pashtun, the Punjabi, the Sindhi, and the Baloch. The first is unhappy with the societal treatment at the hands of the last three.

The PTM is not a problem; it is an expression of a complex predicament that has political and social roots within Pakistan.

In Focus

The government approves Uranium exploration in Kohat and Bannu

The federal government on 14 June approved Uranium exploration in Kohat plateau and Bannu basin at an estimated Rs926.03 million. ("Uranium exploration in Bannu, Kohat approved," Dawn, 15 June 2020) As per Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) 2020-21, the government has allocated Rs23,297.437 million in PSDP for 18 ongoing and one new scheme of Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission. The Center allocated Rs200m for the single new project of 'Detailed Exploration of Uranium Resources in Bannu Basin and Kohat Plateau (Phase-IV)' by the PAEC in the FY2020-21 budget. ("Rs23,297.437mn allocated for PAEC in PSDP 2020-21," Business Recorder, 12 June 2020) ("Rs23,297.437 m allocated for PAEC in PSDP 2020-21," Associated Press of Pakistan, 12 June 2020) 

Pakistan is investing substantially in radiation-related equipment and hospitals such as cancer-fighting centers and in the development of nuclear medicines. The new budget allocates Rs23.09 billion for the 18 ongoing purely domestically funded projects. ("Uranium exploration in Bannu, Kohat approved," World News Monitor, 15 June 2020) ("Rs23.2bn earmarked for Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission under PSDP 2020-21," Profit, 12 June 2020) 

These projects include Dera Ghazi Khan uranium exploration (Rs140m allocated; total cost Rs.794.9m), Islamabad's cancer hospital NORI (Rs1.23bn allocated), Karachi Institute of Radiotherapy and Nuclear Medicine (Rs125m allocated), Gujranwala Institute of Nuclear Medicine and Radiotherapy (Rs500m allocated), Bahawalpur Institute of Nuclear Medicine & Oncology (Rs125m allocated), Gilgit Institute of Nuclear Medicine, Oncology and Radiotherapy (Rs280m allocated), Karachi coastal power projects (Rs18bn allocated), research reactor-3 of 10 megawatts (Rs1.5bn allocated), Islamabad's 3D printing facility (Rs97.43m allocated), nuclear fuel enrichment plant (Rs10m allocated), nuclear power fuel testing project (Rs21m allocated), fuel fabrication plant (Rs42m allocated), and seamless tube plant (Rs32m allocated). FY2020-21 budget also allocates Rs100m for study of development of nuclear power plants and Rs140m for mineral resources' survey. ("Federal Budget 2020-21," Government of Pakistan Finance Division Islamabad) ("Federal Budget Publications 2020-21," Government of Pakistan Finance Division) 

The Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA) has two development projects – establishing National Radiological Emergency Coordination Centre in Islamabad, Karachi and Mianwali (Rs199.18m allocated); and capacity enhancement of oversight regulator against vulnerabilities to cyber threat (Rs150m allocated). ("PUBLIC SECTOR DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME 2020-21," Government of Pakistan, June 2020)

Meanwhile, the Economic Survey 2019-20 revealed that Pakistan's installed capacity of electricity generation during the first ten months of the FY2019-20 had increased to 35,975MW (a 7.5 percent growth). PAEC is the Pakistan's sole department that uses nuclear technology for energy generation. ("Pakistan's power generation capacity increases to 35,975MW," The News International, 12 June 2020) ("PAEC to enhance nuclear energy share to 8,800 MW by 2030," The Nation, 12 June 2020) The allocations will aid PAEC meet its 2030 target of generating 8,800MW nuclear electricity, set by the Energy Security Plan of 2005.

In Brief

COVID-19
Cases to reach 1.2 million by the end of July
On 14 June, while addressing a press briefing at the National Coordination and Operation Centre (NCOC) the Minister for Planning, Development and Special Initiatives stated that the coronavirus cases across the country may double in the next two week and could reach a staggering 1.2 million cases by the end of July. With the rise of cases in the country, the minister appealed to the masses to adopt all precautionary measures. He further added, "the good news is that it is in our hands to control the spread of disease, and we can do it by following the standard operating procedures (SOPs)." Further, he reiterated that a complete lockdown is not still possible. (Ikram Junaidi, "Virus cases may cross million mark by 31 July: Asad," Dawn, 15 June 2020)

Pakistan's health system and health care providers are proving more resilient in coping with the pandemic
An analysis in the Dawn, titled "Pivoting Pakistan's response to the pandemic" discusses three reasons why the health systems and health care provides are proving to be more resilient in coping with the pandemic. First, Pakistan does not have strict protocols like the West thus, healthcare providers can respond to emergencies and enjoy flexibility when dealing with patients. Second, healthcare workers are used to dealing with a lot of patients, which is not the case in the West. Third, various provincial governments have announced that thousands of doctors will be inducted amid the pandemic, another impossible venture that the West cannot take up. Further, the analysis brings out the importance of natural herd immunity which is more likely to be the solution rather than a lockdown. Thus. antibody tests are important and should be started immediately to track individuals and herd immunity level for Covid-19, particularly in highly-affected areas, high-risk populations, and health workers. (Dr. Beenish Samreen and Syed Fida Marvat, "Pivoting Pakistan's response to the pandemic," Dawn, 15 June 2020)

242 per cent surge of deaths in just one month
Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives stated that the total cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 on 14 May were 770 while deaths as of 14 June are 2632, an increase in deaths last month is at 242 per cent in Pakistan. Further, the minister stated that much is still be learned about the spread and mortality of the coronavirus. Fearing that cases are to increase in the country the administration has decided to take stricter action against any violations of the SOPs that have been put in place. ("Just in a month: Pakistan faced 242pc surge in deaths," The News International, 15 June 2020) 

INTERNAL
On the Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM)
In recent months nearly 10,000 employees of PSM were laid-off, no explanation was given by the government to the workers nor for the gross loss of the industry. The PSM was installed in the industrialization era mainly to make country import-independent at the time of crisis. In the timeline of the mill, until 2008-09 it had earnings up to 5 billion per annum but since 2009 it started to go down the slump. The article brings out the causal factors of the shutdown of PSM. First, the past three governments have not bothered about its performance. Second, mismanagement of the industry and failure to revive it. Third, the government's plan of privatization at the cost of the mill workers to pay-off the country's debts. The important point to note is that in order to privatize, the consent of the owner should be present. Here the decision to privatize is taken by the federal government, but its ownership lies with the provinces. So, in order to prevent this the provinces like Sindh must resist as there is no legal power to the government to sell provincial land. (Mushtaq Rajpar, "The saga of a mill," The News International, 15 June 2020)

Oil companies blame bureaucracy for petrol shortage
Oil companies and refineries have blamed the bureaucracy for the current petrol shortage in the country, stating that the indecisiveness concerning the import and enhancement of local petrol production has led to this situation. On 14 June, the Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC) stated the "disinformation campaign and maligning of refineries and oil marketing companies (OMCs)" was a matter of serious concern. Further, the OCAC stated that there was an urgent need to review and analyze the causes for the present shortage of petrol in the country further claiming that the ministry failed to determine the rise in demand as the Covid-19 lockdowns. ("Bureaucracy blamed for petrol shortage," Dawn, 15 June 2020)

PTM called to the negotiating table once again   
Defence Minister once again invited leaders of the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM) to come to the negotiating table to discuss matters with the government. Further, stating that the political instability in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa would only cause more problems if not addressed. PTM leader and MNA Mohsin Dawar stated in a tweet that the group welcomes the government's offer, further stating that the group strongly believes that dialogue is the only way out but that they are fully aware of the failures of such efforts in the past. (Amir Wasim, "Govt again offers dialogue to estranged PTM," Dawn, 15 June 2020)

ON INDIA
Qureshi criticizes the Indian government
The Foreign Minister has said that Pakistan would be of less threat compared to the domestic issues in India in a statement. He said the state of people in their part of Kashmir has been tenuous and prone to attacks due to Indian soldiers. According to him, "the BJP government should "focus on serving the poor, downtrodden and minorities of India better" ("India should focus on domestic issues: Qureshi," The News International, 15 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

The Budget 2020: The challenge of raising 3940 billion as revenue and meeting the deficit of 3190 billion rupees

The budget presented on 12 June by the PTI government is simple. The expected expenditure would be around 7100 billion rupees. It plans to meet this expenditure by raising revenue of 3940 billion. This would mean, there would be a deficit of 3190 billion rupees.

The first challenge is, how would Pakistan raise 3190 billion rupees? Pakistan's tax structure is known for its narrow base. According to the latest Pakistan Economic Survey, "Pakistan's tax structure is characterized by the narrow tax base, massive tax evasion, a large number of concessions and exemptions, regressive tax regime, reliance on indirect taxes and tax administration challenges." For 2019, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey, the federal tax revenue was 3820 billion, which was slightly less than what it collected in 2018. With the growth of economy reeling under the COVID onslaught, where will Pakistan raise the above number?

With the global economy slowing down, and Pakistanis working in the Gulf returning, there would be a further decline in foreign investment and remittances during this budget year. The expectation of the government is – it would raise the foreign direct investment (FDI) by 25 per cent this year. It is a challenging number, given where global economic growth is. In terms of exports, much would depend on the energy situation leading to manufacturing output, and also the economy in the destination countries. 

The second challenge would be to meet the deficit, which is placed at 3190 billion rupees. Pakistan already has a huge portion of its budget addressing debt payments. In fact, the 2020 budget has interest payment as its biggest chunk in the expenditure with 2940 billion rupees, followed by defence expenditure 1280 billion. On both, the PTI government will have no space; the debt payments have to be made, and the defence expenditure is sacrosanct and beyond the purview of Parliament.

The above would also mean, meeting a huge deficit. Who will support Pakistan? Its brethren in the Middle East? Or, China with whom Pakistan shares a relationship higher than the Himalayas and deeper than the Oceans? Or, the IMF? If it is China or the IMF, what would be the conditions?
 

Pakistan's Army Chief visits Kabul to meet Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah

The second significant development during the week was the visit of Gen Bajwa, Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff along with the Director-General of the ISI to Afghanistan.

It was not a planned visit to discuss bilateral issues plaguing the two countries. Instead, the visit is the result of Zalmay Khalilzad's trip to Islamabad a few days earlier to discuss what is happening in Afghanistan. Khalilzad had a one to one meeting with Gen Bajwa; the ISPR published a short note on the discussion, without providing any details of what was discussed. In retrospect, one could link Khalilzad's visit to Pakistan with Gen Bajwa's high profile visit to Afghanistan with his ISI Chief.

The focus should have been on the negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government. There should have been an American pressure on the Afghan leadership to yield to kickstart a negotiation with the Taliban. The US wants it to showcase to rest of the world and its own people so that it can hasten the removal of American troops from Afghanistan. The Afghan leadership is not in favour of talking to the Taliban for two reasons; first, it does not trust the Taliban, and second, it fears that the Taliban control is in Rawalpindi. Hence the Khalilzad triangular trips – to Doha, Islamabad and Kabul.

Gen Bajwa should have been the happiest man today. For three reasons; first, Pakistan's army (and the ISI) is now back in the loop to decide the future of Afghanistan. Second, it reopens the link between Pakistan's military leadership and the US; the latter believes, the former's role is important for the American troops to exit Afghanistan. Third, within Pakistan, it provides the space to the military (and not to the elected leadership) in deciding what the country wants to achieve in Afghanistan as Endgame. Though the newly appointed Pakistan Special Envoy for Afghanistan also accompanied the military and the ISI Chiefs, his role was limited. 
 

Imran Khan does not want a lockdown; the SOPs are not being adhered to, leading to an increase in COVID cases in Pakistan. So, what is Pakistan's option?

According to the latest numbers, as on 14 June, the COVID figures for Pakistan is the following: 139,000 plus confirmed cases and 2600 plus deaths. Punjab (52,600 plus) has overtaken Sindh (51,500) in terms of the number of cases; KP, Balochistan and Islamabad have 17400, 8000, and 7900 cases respectively. In the occupied Kashmir, there are close to 1700 cases (GB and "AJK" put together). However, Imran Khan still refuses to pursue a complete lockdown.

A study in the UK supported by the British government says Pakistan will reach its peak on 10 August 2020, with 80,000 deaths on that day alone, based on an algorithm developed by the Imperial College of London. 

The above projection may be an exaggeration; but, highlights the problem – the rising COVID curve within Pakistan and across all four provinces, perhaps with Balochistan as the exception. 

The problem for Imran Khan is fourfold. First, his own belief, that the lockdown is an elite concept and will not work. Perhaps, he shares the same syndrome that the Brazilian President Bolsonaro has – COVID is just flu. From day one, he was not in favour of imposing the lockdown. He found the idea of "smart lockdown" as his eureka moment and decided to ease it. 

His second problem is his people; the Pakistanis like in many other parts of South Asia are not interested in listening to and adhering to the Standard Operation Procedures (SOPs) that the government has set in. Multiple photos published in the mainstream media from Karachi to Peshawar would highlight the respect that people show for social distancing.

Imran's third problem is his health infrastructure at the national and provincial levels. Successive governments never showed interest in building the health infrastructure. Despite the COVID onslaught, how much has Imran Khan allocated for upgrading existing health services, clean drinking water, sewerage, solid waste management and education? A paltry 70 billion rupees!

Imran's fourth problem is politics and centre-provincial relations. While his party is leading the government at the national level and in two provinces (Punjab and KP), PPP is ruling Sindh. The Chief Minister of Sindh seems to have understood the nature of the problem and started taking actions better than the PTI government. PTI and PPP are not in the same page in addressing the COVID. 

What would this mean? The COVID would prove disastrous for Pakistan. The next few weeks will be crucial unless Imran Khan realizes that COVID is a serious problem. Instead of advising the Indian government on "Pakistan's success" in how to handle the COVID and crying about India not listening to his advice, he should look at what is happening in Pakistan. And heed to what his own people, media, judiciary are telling, besides the WHO.

The PTI when it formed the government in 2018, one of the slogans was the failure of the previous governments. When the Imran government first presented its Budget last year, it blamed the PML-N for all the economic ills. Two years is not a big period, but adequate; it should have adopted an economic policy, and multiple strategies to pursue it. And the annual Budget helps to fact check, and pursue a course correction, if necessary on both the economic policy and the strategies adopted to achieve the goals.

While one needs more time to analyze the Budget in-depth, the first cut based on a quick reading would reveal, there is neither an economic policy nor a strategy, that this government is aiming to address.

Consider the following. The most important aspect of any budget is the revenue; where would it come from for Pakistan? On what basis the Budget has planned for a 7.13 trillion expenditure?

If the 2020 budget takes pride that it would be a no new tax budget, where would Pakistan collect its revenue? The expectation in the Budget is that Pakistan will raise 5.4 trillion from through tax revenue. Economists have already been complaining that Pakistan has a narrow tax base, that needs to expand in size, and deepened further. With a slow economic growth set already and a narrow tax structure, 5.4 trillion is a tough expectation. The government is likely to announce a revised estimate in the next three months.

Given the current trends, agriculture and manufacturing is going to be hit by energy, exports, COVID, and locusts, need not necessarily in that order. With Pakistanis returning home from the Middle East, the remittances are going to fall further. The above would mean, Pakistan for this financial year is going to be heavily dependent on external investments, aid and grants.

Perhaps more from the last two, than the investment. The expectation of the government is there would be a 25 per cent increase in the foreign direct investment this year. But from where? With the global economic growth likely to slow down further with the COVID, where would the investments come from?

The above was on the revenue side. Now on the expenditure side.

As the COVID and its fallout would have underlined – the immediate need for Pakistan is to address the following sectors - health, public, energy and education. The new Budget has overlooked them, allocating a small portion of the Budget. Instead, the two big sectors of expenditure are – interest and debt payments (2.9 trillion) and defence (1.2 trillion).

The first one – interest and debt payment – the PTI may not have an option; but, on the second – defence, it has, but will not pursue it. Successive governments (PPP, PML-N and now PTI) have failed to address the interest, debt and defence expenditures.

Now the last point – political support. The opposition parties have called the Budget as anti-Pakistan and anti-people. The PTI government is in trouble to raise the revenue that it has planned to raise as per the Budget.

One should wait for the revised estimates in three months. And perhaps another budget – micro or mini.

Image Source: The Express Tribune

The Budget in Brief

Who gets what
Rs1.29tr for Defence expenditure
The Budget allocates Rs1.29 trillion for the next fiscal year's defence expenditure. This is an 11.8 per cent increase from the outgoing year's original allocation; 17.68 per cent of the total expenditure calculated for the upcoming year; and 2.82 per cent of the estimated GDP of the fiscal year. Federal Minister for Industries Hammad Azhar, during the budget presentation, mentioned that the Budget gives "adequate attention" to internal security and defence. Last year the military exceeded the allocation by 6.33 per cent. As a percentage of the GDP, Pakistan's is the highest defence expenditure in the region; followed by India (2.4 per cent), Iran (2.3 per cent) and China (1.9 per cent). These figures however do not include the apportionment of pensions, nuclear programmes and acquisitions by the military. In absolute terms, this year the Army will receive Rs613 billion, PAF Rs274 billion, inter-services establishment Rs262 billion and Navy Rs140 billion. ("Govt proposes Rs1.29tr for defence spending," Dawn, 13 June 2020) 
 

The Defense and Aviation divisions receive Budget for developments
A grant of Rs1.58 billion for Defense production and Rs1.3 billion to Aviation division has been provided under the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) 2020-21. The defense industry will steer towards developing the shipyard of Karachi including installation of a transfer system and equipment to ease docking, repairs for submarines and commercial ships. Whereas, the Aviation will focus on building the Gwader international airport and setting up a rainwater harvesting unit in Kasana Dam. These plans were already in place waiting for funds. No new plans were drafted. (Tahir Niaz, "Rs1.58 billion for Defence Production," The Nation, 13 June 2020)

Interior division receives Rs14.76 billion
The government has emphasized developing the civil armed forces, border management to improve its infrastructure capacity. A budget of Rs6.6 billion has been given for present projects and Rs8.1 billion to new projects. Rs1239 million will be used to build the civil armed forces (CAF) to handle the Western Borders and in case new schemes Rs3154.6 million to be used for acquiring land for connecting water between Indus Water System, Tarbela Dam to Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Further, a provision of Rs697.48 million to improve security infra in Malakand, Swat & other areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. (Imran Mukhtar, "With focus on border control Interior Division gets Rs14.76 billion," The Nation, 13 June 2020)

70bn rupees for education, sewerage, solid waste management, clean drinking water and upgrading existing health services
As the Covid-19 challenges have increased the need for public investment for job generation, economic revival and poverty alleviation, the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) for FY2020-21 has been set at Rs650 billion (including Rs72.5bn foreign assistance). 70bn plan will focus on health services, sewerage, solid waste management, drinking water and education. PSDP centers on project completion, rupee coverage for foreign-funded projects, funding for CPEC initiatives, priority projects in communication and transport sectors, finance mode innovations, and economic growth and equity strategy projects. A PSDP-plus initiative expects over Rs5 trillion investments across long, medium and short-term projects. As per Planning and Development Secretary Zafar Hassan, PSDP addresses key priority areas and Covid-19 responsive needs. PSDP allocates Rs80bn for power-sector projects, Rs14bn for food security, Rs5bn for environment and climate change, Rs24bn for SDGs and Rs179bn for minimum requirements, including priority projects and CPEC. ("Rs650bn allocated for development programme," Dawn, 13 June 2020) 

Three Hospitals for Karachi after a decade in 14bn
The federal government, after a decade-long delay, has finally allocated Rs14.18 billion for three hospitals – Rs3.877bn for Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre (JPMC), Rs9.242bn for the National Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases (NICVD) and Rs1.07bn for National Institute of Child Health (NICH) – in Karachi. Previously, in May 2019, as notified by the federal Ministry of National Health Services, Karachi's three major hospitals were returned to the Centre owing to the Supreme Court judgement of January 2019. A Rs1,200bn special stimulus package has also been allocated to fight the coronavirus pandemic and mitigate its economic and public effects.

Further, the Budget allocates Rs150bn for financial support through the Ehsaas program; Rs200bn for financial aid to daily-wage labourers; Rs50bn for subsidies; Rs100bn to the FBR to pay export refunds; and Rs100bn for electricity installments and gas bills of the needy; and Rs50bn support for small farmers as loan waivers, subsided fertilizers and other relief measures. ("BUDGET 2020-21: Govt allocates Rs14bn for three Karachi hospitals," Dawn, 13 June 2020) 

Social Safety Net increased to 12 million households from 4.3 million
This decision was in the background of the wideing gulf between the rich and the poor. Monthly financial assistance has also been enhanced to Rs3,000 per month from Rs2,000 presently received by Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) beneficiaries. Pro-poor measures such as special cash assistance under the Kafaalat Programme; emergency cash assistance to 4 million beneficiaries from National Social Economic Registry of BISP; and emergency cash assistance to 3.5m district-identified beneficiaries. As per the Annual Development Plan 2020-21, social welfare systems must ensure living standards and security of citizens. This is crucial as deprived segments and socially-excluded populations (such as disabilities, internally displaced people, slum-dwellers, migrants, refugees, women and children) will benefit. ADP also details multi-dimensional aspects of the Covid-19 response. ("Budget 2020-21: Social safety net expanded to cover 12m households," Dawn, 13 June 2020) 

Higher Education Commission receives Rs29,470 million
While Rs23,044 million is allocated for ongoing schemes, Rs6425 million will be spent on new schemes during FY2020-2021. Development of new campus of Government College University (GCU) Faisalabad; 4-year undergraduate programme in Water Resource Engineering and Petroleum engineering at UET Taxila; establishment of IT and Library Infrastructure at the University of Agriculture in Faisalabad are few of the projects. During FY2020-21 HEC could concentrate on four sectoral objectives such as greater access to higher education, enhancing the quality of higher education, ensuring higher education's relevance to national needs and incorporating the fourth Industrial Revolution. As part of the COVID response, HEC plans to develop national knowledge database for diseases to enable vaccine development and study of genomes and genetics of the coronavirus. ("HEC gets Rs29,470.000m," The News International, 13 June 2020)

Small allocation for the Health Sector
The budget has allocated Rs14.5 billion for the Health Sector. Compared to the previous years it shows only an increase of Rs1.1 billion, which will not help the provincial government to fight the pandemic. The health budget includes Rs22.774 billion for hospital services and the health administration is given Rs2.184 billion but for the public health services only Rs504 million is granted and Rs31 million for medical products, equipment which is highly in need. According to experts, a budget of Rs25.5 billion should have been provided mainly to support the training of healthcare workers rather funding for infrastructure developments. They also recommend for funds towards buying of medicines and technology to deal with the situation.(Muhammad Qasim, "No great support for corona-hit health infrastructure," The News International, 13 June 2020)
 

Who says what
The Industry is unimpressed with the Budget
The All Pakis­tan Textile Manufac­turing Asso­ci­ation (Aptma) says for the textile industry, the Budget is negative and has no positive aspects; reduction of energy subsidy from Rs24billion to Rs10bn is a further blow. The Pakistan Business Council (PBC) fears global exports would remain glum but appreciates the falling import tariffs and tax reduction on import of machinery and plant. The Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI) expressed astonishment in the Center's failure to announce large-investment boosting steps or incentives. The Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry feels there is no pandemic-related relief for businesses and industries in the Budget to tackle surging unemployment, falling factory outputs and incomes and the widespread aftershock of Covid-19. LCCI calls for extraordinary measures to tackle during and post-Covid challenges. Finally, the PLGMEA has ruled out the possibility of any surge in export. ("Comments: Budget fails to impress industry," Dawn, 13 June 2020) 

Conflicting views between the businessmen of Rawalpindi and traders of Islamabad
The businessmen of RCCI have appreciated the tax exemptions mainly the rate of advance tax on raw materials that has been lessened to two per cent. In regards to the demand for reduction of sales tax from 17 to 5 per cent has also been not considered, this has raised dissatisfaction amongst the members. So, they have asked the government to re-look into the revenue targets. Whereas the traders in Islamabad have indicated the reduced custom duties on 90 tariff lines to three per cent as supportive and has asked for grant of more incentives to increase exports and investments.(Israr Ahmad, "Twin cities business class gives mixed reaction to budget," The Nation, 13 June 2020)

The businessmen of KP express dissatisfaction over federal Budget
The traders in KP claimed that Pakistan's global positing in doing business has ranked up from 136 to 108, which was due to a rise in foreign investments. Due to pandemic, these businesses have faced challenges from bigger industry to small-scale set ups have been hit and the relief granted was insufficient. Hence the president of the business community demanded extension of relief and to reduce the sales tax to resuscitate businesses.("KP traders entirely reject financial bill," The Nation, 13 June 2020)

The Budget shows "little imagination, with little to cushion the population after IMF-enforced economic contractions" says the News Editorial.
The Rs7.13 trillion tax-free Budget, announced by Federal Minister, is being viewed as a cover-up for the Rs3.8billion budget deficit faced by the country. The revenue target has been set at Rs5 trillion, which seems impractical in the coming years of economic downturn. The editorial has brought out five significant flaws of the Budget 2020-21. First, the relief for ongoing Covid-19 has missed the special focus and has allotted only Rs70 billion as part of PSDP. Second, the taxes have been exempted overall apart from a few tech devices, but the taxes on luxury vehicles and other related goods are also regarded tax-free. Third, the budget allocation for education and health should be high to educate people mainly on health and safety measures to avoid future pandemic situations, but only Rs83 billion has been allotted for education and Rs25 billion for health sector. Fourth, large-scale manufacturing and agriculture have not improved in the past years. With the loss of exports and locust attacks, these sectors will face a long recovery process which might lead to a bigger problem of food scarcity. The government must address this with a special fiscal stimulus and revive the industries. Finally, the ministry has promised to push the GDP rate to 2.1 per cent in the next fiscal year without considering the skyrocketing foreign debts. The editorial ends by stating that balancing between deficit revenues and debt servicing will be a huge task for Pakistan in the coming years. ("Budget 2020-21," The News International, 13 June 2020)

Opposition calls the Budget as anti-Pakistan and anti-Public
Pakistan's opposition is unhappy with the Budget. PML-N and PPP called it "anti-Public and anti-Pakistan" and predicted job-cuts and mini-budgets. The PML-N, PPP and MMA members staged a noisy protest raising anti-government placards (such as "No to Privatization of Steel Mills", "Cheeni Chor, Aata Chor, Petrol Chor" meaning 'sugar thieves, flour thieves and petrol thieves' and "Dhandli-zada Hukoomat Namanzoor" meaning 'rigged government unacceptable') before the PM, who was attending the budget presentation, and later walked out of the assembly hall. They foiled PTI's strategy to black out the protest by state-funded PTV by consistently sending video clips to private news channels. In the absence of Opposition Leader Shahbaz Sharif, PML-N's parliamentary leader Khawaja Asif led the party. However, PML-N and PPP agreed to not press for cut motions and point out quorum till the Budget was passed. ("Minister unfazed by noisy opposition protest in NA," Dawn, 13 June 2020) 
 

The primary challenge
The New tax revenue target: a highly ambitious Rs4.9tr
Amid the COVID-challenges and economic lull, FBR needs a 27 per cent tax growth in the upcoming fiscal year to hit the desired target. FBR believes the existing tax infrastructure can fetch Rs200 to Rs300 billion via effective enforcement and expansion of the narrow tax base.

FBR's Chairperson Nausheen Javaid said that FBR provided Rs26.260 billion relief on three taxes – general sales, income tax and federal excise duty. "With restoration of economic activities and increased imports the FBR will be able to achieve its envisaged target," Javaid said. A major enforcement measure introduced in the Budget is ensuring FBR has real-time access to databases and information from different institutions such as FIA, provincial excise, NADRA and taxation departments. ("Govt sets highly ambitious tax revenue target of Rs4.9tr," The News International, 13 June 2020) 

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

In his editorial for The Friday Times this week (12 June 2020), titled "For whom the bell tolls," Najam Sethi looks at the state of democracy in Pakistan today, growing differences between the government and the military, and the reasons for the failure of democracy in Pakistan.

He starts with a premise that there is no democracy in Pakistan, and only a "selectocracy", referring to a process in which people are selected to rule. The implication is people for important positions are "selected" by the "Miltablishment" (a phrase he uses to refer to the Military and the Establishment).

On what basis he arrives at the above conclusion, that there is only selectocracy in Pakistan? In his own words, "Not just Pakistanis but the international community too has noted that Pakistan's finance advisor, interior minister, interior secretary, national security advisor, heads of NDMA, NCOC, CPEC, etc., are all Selectocrats. In the latest twist, the Foreign Minister has been excluded from Foreign Policy making: he was conspicuous by his absence when the COAS, DGISI and Special Envoy made a strategic trip to Kabul last week for facilitating talks between the Taliban and Afghan regime aimed at smoothing the American exit from Afghanistan."

The second part of his editorial looks at the differences between the Miltablishment and the PTI government, primarily Imran Khan. According to Najam Sethi, the "Miltablishment has stopped repeating the "same page" mantra because it is sounding embarrassingly hollow." He believes that the Miltablishment is not only "distancing themselves from the disastrous decisions of the government and scratching their heads for honourable exit strategies."

What is Sethi's explanation for the Militablishment distancing itself from the government? He writes: "people are squarely pinning responsibility for the chaos in their lives not just on the government but increasingly on the Miltablishment that has brought it to power."

Sethi suggests that supporting this government involves bigger risks for the military, "irreparably damaging the permanent institutions of the state like NAB, FIA, Judiciary and Bureaucracy, all of which have been railroaded into doing its illegal biddings. Meanwhile, there is no silver lining on the horizon."

The question one has to ponder then is if the military is looking for an exit strategy, what would it look like? Who will it select then, if Pakistan's democracy remains a selectocracy?

Image Source: The News

In Brief

SC questions the Railways over poor performance
On 12 June, the Supreme Court raised a serious question to the Ministry of Railways over poor performance, saying the entire system has gone corrupt. The two-member bench heard petitions related to the transfer of services of the Pakistan Railways employees. Further, the Chief Justice furiously questioned the Railways Secretary, saying that he should leave his post as the ministry is not performing adequately at all. The court has ordered the railways to present a report regarding its operations and employees, within a month. ("CJP lashes out at Pakistan Railways secretary over poor performance," The News International, 13 June 2020)

COVID-19
The government cannot leave the citizens to fend for themselves: Editorial
An editorial in the Dawn titled, "Blaming the people?" says amid the increasing cases of COVID-19 in the country and the health systems becoming overwhelmed, PM Imran Khan's statement "I am disappointed to see that our nation is being very careless" is uncalled for. Given that the SOP message is the correct one, the government cannot simply leave it to citizens to fend for themselves and then hold them responsible for the increasing fatalities. It is the government that is ultimately responsible for the impact of the coronavirus and should not just stop at requesting the people to follow these precautions but also create a sense of urgency among the population and also have an enforcement mechanism in place for those who don't follow the rules. ("Blaming the people?," Dawn, 13 June 2020)

LOCUST ATTACK
The coming threat 
An editorial in the Dawn titled "More swarms arriving" looks into the threatening situation of the locust on the agriculture sector stating that although the farm sectors have registered positive growth in the previous financial year despite the locust invasion, however, the next fiscal year does not seem positive unless the effective measure is taken to address this issue in the upcoming months. The failure to deal with the threat will have drastic impacts on not only rural livelihoods and add to poverty but could also cause food insecurity. ("More swarms arriving," Dawn, 13 June 2020)

INTERNAL
Another attack in North Waziristan, one soldier killed
On 12 June, one soldier was martyred in an exchange of fire with militants who attacked security forces in the Khaisor Katera area near Mirali in North Waziristan. Officials have stated that the militants had destroyed the security post with explosives. Further, addressing the deteriorating security situation in the North Waziristan and South Waziristan districts. ("Soldier martyred in N. Waziristan," Dawn, 13 June 2020)

NFC Award will further deepen the divide: Nusrat Javeed
Nusrat Javeed in his note title "NFC Award is bound to deepen divide further," comments on the state of affair regarding the budgets. He comments that given the challenging time the federal government should have seriously considered disregarding the custom of presenting the next financial year's budget. Specifically looking into the division of money between Federal and the Provincial Governments and the suggested "review" of the NFC Award is a clear indicator of potentially explosive tensions and conflicts that will arise in the political scene. Highlighting that the PPP-led government in Sindh and the federal government do not share the same vision when it came to managing COVID-19 and this "review" of the NFC Award is bound to deepen the divide further. (Nusrat Javeed, "NFC Award is bound to deepen divide further," The Nation, 13 June 2020)

Superior court judges were not above the law
On 12 June, the Supreme Court observed that superior court judges were not above the law and were more accountable than anyone, and as a result should be treated per the law. A 10-member court resumed hearing on a set of petitions that challenging the presidential reference filed against Justice Qazi Faez Isa for allegedly not disclosing his foreign properties in his wealth returns. The court reiterated to the federation's counsel to answer the questions raised by the petitioner judge about statements made to which the Justice Maqbool Baqir clarified that the Supreme Court had never said that the superior court judges were above the law further stating that they should be dealt with per the law. (Sohail Khan, "Justice Faez Isa case: Judges accountable, not above law, says SC," The News International, 13 June 2020)

ECONOMY
Revamping the Steel Mills economically prudent
The ECC's decision to revamp the Steel Mills with the view to revive the industrial unit is economically prudent and would contribute tremendously to the process of revival of the economy. Although the issue of privatisation has been going on for a long time, it has become a serious political issue in the bargain. Given that there is opposition in this matter, the government must make sure that the concerns expressed by the opposition are properly addressed with utmost transparency to avoid any political and social backlash. (Malik Muhammad Ashraf, "Revamping Pakistan Steel Mills," The Nation, 13 June 2020)

Pakistan Steel Mills can rightly be called a stillbirth: Analysis
A note by Samson Simon Sharaf titled "A stillborn Pakistan Steel Mills," is critical of the government's that have been in power since 2006 inability resolve to carry out in-depth investigations, ascertain how and why losses occurred, who is responsible for inefficiency and who should be made accountable. Although the issue is complex, the fact on the matter hidden in the desires to keep Pakistan underdeveloped, the political economy of dependence, corporate capitalism, economic hitmen, and now 'The Age of Surveillance Capitalism' that has moved beyond the sovereignty of nation-states. Here talking about Pakistan's corporate mafia which has grown to affect every strand of policymaking. (Samson Simon Sharaf, "A stillborn Pakistan Steel Mills," The Nation, 13 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

Special Brief

All economic targets missed

That's the first-page story in the Nation.

Releasing the Pakistan Economic Survey 2019-20, Advisor to the PM on Finance and Revenue Abdul Hafeez Sheikh said the nation’s economy suffered tremendously due to the novel coronavirus pandemic. As per the survey, for the first time in 68 years Pakistan’s economy is set to contract with a negative 0.38 per cent in the outgoing fiscal year. Hafeez blamed Covid-19 for a loss of over three trillion rupees and the shrinking economy. PTI’s economic team members Omar Ayub Khan, Asad Umar and Hammad Azhar were noticeably absent from the ceremony. (“Hafeez Shaikh presents Pakistan Economic Survey 2019-20,” The News International, 11 June 2020)
 
Indicators painted a bleak economic performance and sector-wide broad-based setbacks. As per the report, public debt has increased to 88per cent of GDP; FBR revenues will likely take a Rs800bn hit; and sectors showing positive growth have missed targets. Economic stabilisation policies faced by the industrial sector prior to the pandemic have also contributed to the dwindling economy. (“Hafeez blames Covid-19 for Rs3 trillion GDP loss,” Dawn, 12 June 2020) (“Govt unveils economic survey, misses key targets,” Pakistan Today, 11 June 2020)
 
Dr. Hafeez attempted to lessen the economic horror and save PTI’s face endorsing their successful economic policies during the outgoing fiscal year – primary surplus; stable exchange rate; the 2.7 per cent growth in agriculture sector (target 3.6 per cent); 10.8 per cent growth in total tax collection; 73.1 per cent reduction in current account deficit compared to the previous year; healthy growth in FDI (126.8 per cent); better World Bank ranking in ‘ease of doing business’ index; and ‘Stable’ credit outlook from ‘Negative’ by Moodys. The Advisor said the Center controlled state expenses without borrowing from the State Bank of Pakistan; argued the economy was headed in the right direction before the pandemic hit; and credited the PM and Army Chief for controlling the defence budget and expenditure. He also roped in IMF’s forecast of decline in exports and remittances; and pointed out the troubled economy the ruling PTI had inherited. (“Pakistan's Economy Contracts For First Time In 68 Years Due To COVID-19,” NDTV Profit, 12 June 2020)
 
Dr. Hafeez, although uncertain regarding the recovery pattern, promised more relief, tax-reduction and incentivization in the new budget. Today, the 2020-21 budget will be presented in the parliament.
 
Minister for Economic Affairs Khusru Bakhtiar, also present at the ceremony, said Pakistan’s forex exchange reserve would cross $18 billion by the end of FY2020. He blamed PPP and PML-N for Pakistan’s staggering total external debt of $76.5 billion and said it further strained the economy. (“Economic Survey for the fiscal year 2019-20 reveals 73% decline in current account deficit,” MG Link, 11 June 2020)
 
The Survey also gives a glimpse of Pakistan’s current healthcare infrastructure; crucial in understanding its resilience to tackle the pandemic. Pakistan’s total health expenditure in 2018-19 was 1.1 per cent of the year’s GDP (a decline from the 1.2 per cent in 2017-18). The survey refrains from reporting the doctor-patient ratio (a constant in previous reports) in an attempt to downplay the neglect shown to the health sector and its subsequent deterioration. (“Pakistan Economic Survey: The state of healthcare in 2020?,” Geo TV, 12 June 2020)

In Brief

Pakistan Government launch stimulus package to revive the economy
The Pakistan Economic Survey for the year 2019-20 has predicted a V-shaped recovery after Covid-19 cases drop in Pakistan. In the overall, Industrial and service sector have been deteriorating apart from Agriculture. The government considers the effect on workers in non-agricultural sectors, has launched a stimulus of Rs1.24tr. This policy will mend the daily wage workers and employees who have been laid-off during the pandemic. (Mutaher Khan, “Economic survey 2019-20: V-shaped recovery highly likely,” Dawn, 12 June 2020)
 
Total debt and liabilities rise to 102.6 per cent of GDP
The economic survey has provided data on the country’s total debts in the financial period from July 2019 to March 2020. As per the survey, the public debts that include a loan from IMF stand at 88 per cent and interest payments have already reached Rs1.88tr within the first nine months of the year. The government assumes the debt to GDP ratio to lessen by the end of this fiscal year, but the survey foresees no possibility due to reduced growth and increased budget deficit. (“Total public debt jumps to 88pc of GDP,” Dawn, 12 June 2020)
 
The tax exemptions cost under a tumble
The Tax exemptions granted to numerous industry sectors have increased. Starting from independent power producers, import, and the local supplies mostly consumer goods have been exempted from total income and given tax credits. Additionally, FTA’s and PTA’s with China, Malaysia, and Indonesia have also contributed to the rise of the cost of tax exemptions. (Mubarak Zeb Khan, “Tax exemptions cost kitty Rs1.15tr,” Dawn, 12 June 2020)
 
Zero deviation in the growth of agriculture
In the fiscal year 2019-20, the production in agriculture has been potential despite climate change, locust attacks, and water scarcity. The produce has exceeded the domestic demand and met the surplus quantity for exporting as well. As per the Economic Survey, it has identified one issue which is the accessibility for farmers to sell directly the produce in the market. Apart from that the food security and livelihood have been met. (Amin Ahmed, “Agriculture performance ‘remarkable’,” Dawn, 12 June 2020)
 
The large-scale manufacturing (LSM) pitches down
The coerce in Pakistan’s economy has pushed LSM industries down to 5.4 per cent. The Economic Survey says that keeping fertilizers apart, the textile, food, beverage, iron, steel, and petroleum products have all slumped down due to the economic crisis in the present fiscal year. (Kalbe Ali, “Large-scale industrial output shrinks 5.4pc,” Dawn, 12 June 2020)
 
Blocks in energy sector affect Pakistan’s economy
In the past few years this sector has been on the rise but due to increased circular debts and worsening economic position in the trial to utilize the low oil prices and share of hydropower in the world. The Economic Survey has pointed out that the country’s involvement in IMF and WB has only resulted in more debts, thereby high prices of energy and high cost of doing business. (Khaleeq Kiani, “Economic survey 2019-20: Energy sector bottlenecks mar business activity,” Dawn, 12 June 2020)
 
The annual inflation is estimated to drop further
The price of International commodities has decreased and the inflation rate is set to 10.7 per cent. The Economic Survey has said that the inflationary pressure will turn to single-digit with falling oil prices in the year 2021. It has observed the causes of the change, firstly due to disruptions in supply of perishable goods, secondly due to increased transportation costs and all the seasons in 2019 has met shifts causing failure of minor crops. Thereby the dependency on imported food increased. Regarding the government, although it has provided relief package and stimulus, the fall in petrol prices has only slowed down the inflation rate. (“Inflation to fall further in next fiscal year,” Dawn, 12 June 2020)
 
The editorial in Dawn pitches for the poor to be at the center of government incentives
The recent Economic Survey published has given a dark picture of the economy of Pakistan. As the data released covers only the first nine months of the fiscal year, Covid-19 cannot be a major reason for this economic downturn. The editorial has pointed out that the relief package and the incentives given by the government to the wealthy business people were aimed to pass down to the poor working class but it has not come into reality. Hence the article urges the government to keep the poor as centric and provide the relief incentives directly without mediating through the wealthy. (“Economy in distress,” Dawn, 12 June 2020)
 
APTMA seeks energy package to increase textile exports
All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) has written a letter to PM asking for the energy package to continue for provisioning electricity. As the energy package helps immensely to increase the volume of textiles which has turned competitive in the global market although prices are at fall. The letter necessitated that to maintain the Balance of Payments, Pakistan needs to ensure the energy to the industry as the accumulation of debt is not viable. (“Textile industry seeks continuation of energy package,” The News International, 12 June 2020)
 
Population growth control a challenge to Pakistan
The Population growth rate in Pakistan has been going down with a percentage of 1.89 from 2.4 as per the Economic Survey. The survey has reported that the population consists of people belonging to the working category and has turned difficult for the government to mobilize resources effectively to control the growth. The report said, "The population is now a cross-cutting issue and needs to be dealt with a consolidated strategy encompassing social as well as economic factors.” (“Population growth rate down to 1.89%,” The News International, 12 June 2020)
 
A radical change in economic policy is needed: Editorial
An editorial in the News International titled, “Economic Survey 2019-2020,” looks into the Economic Survey 2019-20 which was presented by the Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Finance stating that as expected data in the survey depicts harsh economic downfall as a result of the COVID-19. With the economy already in a bad position, this pandemic has left the economy in the same position where it stood at the end of the previous fiscal year. Critical of the situation, the editorial states that without a radical change in economic policy it would be impossible to make any improvement in the condition of the people. (“Economic Survey 2019-2020,” Dawn, 12 June 2020)
 
Exports on the downward trajectory
The Economic Survey 2019-20 showed exports from are on a downward trajectory. According to the survey, the country recorded an export value of 19.7 billion dollars during July-April 2019-20 compared to 20.1 billion dollars in the same period of the previous fiscal year, depicting a decline of 2.4 per cent. Further, efforts have taken to enhance exports, however, international buyers have requested local entrepreneurs to add value to get a bigger share in the global trade market since Pakistan enjoys the GSP Plus status. (Shahram Haq, “Pakistan’s exports on downward trajectory,” The Express Tribune, 12 June 2020)
 

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

In Brief

COVID-19
Alarming rise in COVID-19 deaths and cases
The continuous rise in the number of patients being tested positive for coronavirus and deaths caused by the virus especially in Islamabad and Rawalpindi is proving to be a matter of concern. On 11 June, the number of confirmed patients reported from the two cities crossed the figure of 9000, and 4200 have been tested positive in the last 10 days. (Muhammad Qasim, “Continuous rise in deaths, new cases set the alarm bell ringing,” The News International, 12 June 2020)

PM states that Smart lockdown is the best option
In his address to the nation, PM Imran Khan stated that the smart lockdown was the only option for Pakistan to deal with the disease. Aware of the serious situation in the country, he said that strict monitoring would be done to ensure people follow standard operating procedures (SOPs), further stating that the government would get tough on the violators. Further, he urged the people to take all precautionary measures to not overburden the country’s health system. (Ikram Junaidi, “Smart lockdown is only option: PM Imran,” Dawn, 12 June 2020)

INTERNAL
PPP led MPC opposes any changes made to 18th amendment and NFC
On 11 June, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) led a multi-party conference (MPC) opposed any action by the federal government to make changes to the 18th amendment while demanding the dissolution recently-constituted NFC commission. The MPC was convened at the CM house attended by leaders from the MQM-P, JI, JUI-F, and other members from various other parties. The resolution adopted by the conference raised its opposition on changes 18th constitutional amendment stating that bring this issue at the time of the pandemic was not appropriate and the federal government should avoid creating a controversy over the amendment. Additionally, while terming the commission on NFC as unconstitutional, it demanded the government to form another NFC commission with the recommendation of the provinces. Further, the MPC appealed to the federal government to take action to fight the locust threat in the country. (Abdullah Zafar, “Dissolve NFC commission, no change to 18th Amendment: MPC,” The Nation, 12 June 2020)

Pakistan health data worrisome: Economic Survey 2019-20
According to Economic Survey 2019-20, the national health security in Pakistan is increasingly threatened due to population growth, rising urbanisation, environmental pollution, and change in lifestyle of people and other factors. With life expectancy being the lowest in Pakistan (67.1 years), the combined healthy expenditures by federal and provincial governments in the Financial Year 2019 increased to 421.8 billion rupees from 416.5 billion rupees in 2018 showing a growth of only 1.3 per cent. Moreover, the allocation in the health sector was 1.1 per cent of the GDP. (“Pakistan health data worrisome as compared to neighbouring states,” Dawn, 12 June 2020)

IHC grants stay order against sugar scam
Islamabad High Court (IHC) granted a stay order against the recommendation of the inquiry commission on the sugar scam which called for the registration of criminal cases against sugar mill owners on the condition that they would supply the commodity to consumers at the rate of 70 rupees per kilogram until 25 June. This decision comes as a sigh of relief to the mill owners who were otherwise facing charges for the misuse of public money and cartelisation leading to massive price hike of the commodity. (Malik Asad, “IHC stops action against sugar mills,” Dawn, 12 June 2020)

Issue of Human Trafficking in Pakistan
Being a developing country, the region has fallen prey to this trade. Further, poverty, lack of resources for the public, and failure of the government to take action against such inhumane practices have been reasons for this issue to persist in the country. Women and children are among the biggest victims of human trafficking in Pakistan. Children are bought, sold, kidnapped for working in begging rings, domestic servitude and prostitution. Children of all ages are trafficked to be exploited sexually and forced to work for illegal begging and trafficking rings. Babies are sold to childless couples or couples seeking out a bride for their sons. According to Pakistan’s Federal Investigation Agency, the largest number of traffickers operate in Punjab, ranging from 30 to 35 traffickers. Given the magnitude of human trafficking in Pakistan, the government must implement a comprehensive survey to address the extent of trafficking. (Shahraj Raza, “Human trafficking in Pakistan,” The Nation, 12 June 2020)

ECONOMY
Budgeting amid COVID-19
With the 2020-21 budget due, the government would need to take into account several aspects to be relevant given the difficult circumstance in which it is being formulated. Government budgets will have to be responsive to the macroeconomic context, be based on realistic assumptions, and have an anchoring theme or reform idea set in the medium term, rather than merely be an accounting statement for the year ahead. Three areas that will have to be taken into account are, first, ‘exogenous’ economic disruption caused by the pandemic, second, the ‘endogenous’ economic disruption caused in response to the pandemic through lockdowns and third, the public health effect. While addressing the larger uncertainties, a rolling budget would be beneficial for the government by allowing space for flexibility. (Sakib Sherani, “Comment: Budgeting in the time of corona,” Dawn, 12 June 2020)

Lockdown to cause 1.4 million jobs losses
Accoring to the Economic Survey 2019-20, the lockdowns and restrictions imposed are likely to cause a loss of 1.4 million to 18.53 million jobs, which is 2.2 per cent of the employed workforce. Further, the survey highlighted that under moderate lockdowns, employment loss could be up to 12.3 million which is around 20 per cent of the employed labour force, and wage loss will be 209.6 billion rupees. A complete shutdown is expected to leave 18.53 million people or 30 per cent of the labour force unemployed, with job loss worth 315 billion rupees. With the staggering numbers, the federal and provincial governments have formulated strategies to tackle the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on labour and employment respectively. (Bakhtawar Mian, “Covid-19 restriction may cause loss of at least 1.4m jobs,” Dawn, 12 June 2020)

10 million to slip below the poverty line
The Economic Survey 2019-20 has estimated that at least another 10 million people are expected to slip below the poverty line as a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic. The survey states “The Covid-19 is expected to have a negative impact on Pakistan’s economy, and the number of people living below the poverty line may rise from the existing figure of 50 million to 60million.” The survey further stated that the government has taken many initiatives to reduce poverty, provide income security and increase the population’s access to social protection, including the creation of a dedicated Poverty Alleviation and Social Safety Division amid the pandemic. (Iftikhar A. Khan, “Another 10m likely to slip below poverty line,” Dawn, 12 June 2020)

ON INDIA
FM warns India that Pakistan is not a soft target
On 11 June, the Foreign Minister stated “Pakistan will give an immediate befitting response to India if it carries out any misadventure against it. Pakistan is quite capable to defend itself. We are not a soft target.” Additionally, stating that India should not remain under misconception and made it clear that the armed forces and the nation were always ready to defend the motherland. Further, he said that India’s continuous ceasefire violations on the Line of Control were part of its planned strategy aimed at diverting people’s attention from its failures. Highlighting the situation in PoK he called on the International Community to play an active role regarding this matter. (Shafqat Ali, “Pakistan ready to defend itself, FM warns India,” The Nation, 12 June 2020)
 
 

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

An analysis in the Dawn titled “Provinces vs centre” by I.A. Rehman highlights the importance of federalism and democracy over a centralised structure. (I.A. Rehman, “Provinces vs centre,” Dawn, 11 June 2020) Bringing out the discord that exists between the centre and the provinces and the ongoing debate on whether the provinces are subordinate to the federation has been a matter of concern for the future of the federation and also the integrity of the state. In particular to the COVID-19 situation, Rehman recalls the decision of the Supreme Court reiterating that provinces are to follow the federation directions, a colonial legacy of centralised rule. More recently, the discord between the centre and province has been evident in the measure adopted to address the COVID-19 situation, the centre and province seem to competing with each other rather than cooperating, the partisan approach taken up has only diluted the seriousness of the matter at stake. Further, meddling of the centre through federally controlled company and institutions has caused a further wedge in the functioning of the federal structure.

Critical of the high demand for a centralised state structure through Pakistan’s history, Rehman states that this has been the greatest tragedy for Pakistan as it has hindered the country from becoming a proper federation. The main problem has been the centre’s treatment of the provinces as its subordinate entities, ruled by centrally appointed officials, the concept of the federation was negated. It was only with the 18th substantial step was taken to give the provinces their due power. However, the process of empowering the federating units has a long way to go.

Underlining the importance decentralisation and transfer of power from the centre to the provinces for Pakistan, he stated that the provincial assemblies created Pakistan and are not the creatures of the federation. Thus, by giving the provinces their dues the federation would become a smart polity, its non-productive expenditure will come down, the feeling of alienation among communities and nationalities constituting the provinces would die out and Pakistan could become stronger and be at more at peace. He concluded with a word of caution stating that any attempt to return to an over-centralised state structure will be the shortest route to suicide, Pakistan’s future lies in having more of democracy and more of federalism.

Also read:
Hassan Hakeem, “Hybrid federalism,” The News International, 11 June 2020
I.A. Rehman, “Playing with fire,” Dawn, 7 May 2020

Pakistan's economy will end the same in 2020 as it began
Khurram Husain’s analysis predicts that Pakistan’s FY2020 would end the way it began with an ongoing IMF dialogue and a massive fiscal deficit. PTI’s wins on the fiscal side, such as the shrinking fiscal deficit and rising foreign exchange reserves, were erased rapidly by the pandemic. PM Imran Khan talked of reviving the growth rate in November 2019, despite the transitions required to align with the IMF. However, while FY2019’s projected growth rate of 3.29 per cent dwindled to 1.9 per cent (as per National Accounts Committee), FY2020 is currently recording a negative 0.38 per cent owing to the lockdowns in March and April. Growth, as Husain puts it, is “a distant dream”.

Husain says only another year of intense financial adjustments such as hamstrung expenditures and high taxes will restore Pakistan’s fiscal balance. This could however take longer as the highly proliferous pandemic persists. Husain argues that businesses and industries were already weary with adjustments for the IMF. The highly anticipated meeting of key businessmen with the Army Chief not materializing and the continuation of the arrangements detrimentally affected the purses and morale of the businessmen. Although provisions or special packages were decided as a relief, in the current scenario, they may have to endure an additional year of intense adjustments.

Khurram concludes saying the federal government would have to practice a “delicate balancing act” amid the mounting uncertainties and shrinking economy, as FY2021 commences.

The Center’s finance advisor will be presenting the Economic survey for the outgoing FY2019. (“Analysis: FY2020: from adjustment to lockdown,” Dawn, 11 June 2020)

Image Source: Dawn

In Brief

COVID-19
Pakistan wants to look beyond the health lens of WHO
The WHO has asked for countries with a rapid rise in COVID-19 patients to go for a two-week lockdown to flatten the curve. So far, there have been 6,343 cases and 101 deaths in the last 24 hours in Pakistan. The ministry officials have stated that the country being the sixth largest country with a population falling under low-income category mostly, but they have taken necessary SOP measures to control the virus and also to think about the state of the people in poverty. It has denied the imposing of the lockdown again as per WHO's will result in more chaos to Pakistan’s poor sector. (Ikram Junaidi, "PM’s aide downplaysdire WHO warning," Dawn,11 June 2020)

Response to the WHO’s advice seems doubtful: Editorials
An Editorial in the Dawn titled “WHO advice” is critical of the government response to the recent WHO recommendation for Pakistan. With the government still sending out mixed messages, and a high rate of SOP violations as the COVID-19 situation in the country becomes worse, it is doubtful that the government will take the WHO’s advice seriously. Another editorial in the News International titled “WHO warning” states that only time will tell if the government takes this advice into account. Further, adding that rather than protecting the people the government has taken measures that have put people at risk. (“WHO advice,” Dawn, 11 June 2020) (“WHO warning,” The News International, 11 June 2020)

Four deaths reported every hour
Four deaths have been reported every hour along with the per million fatality rates being fairly high. The National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC) stated that 23799 COVID-19 tests have been conducted in the last 24 hours. This situation is becoming worse in the country with the nationwide coronavirus cases jumping to over 117200 while death toll touches to over 2300 with 101 new deaths and 6365 new cases being reported in a day across the country. (“Corona killing four an hour in Pakistan,” The News International, 11 June 2020)

INTERNAL
Most of FATF conditions have been met
On 10 July, the Minister for Interior stated that Pakistan has met most of the conditions if the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). At a meeting with PM Imran Khan, the minister presented a report on the performance of his ministry and its various departments in the last 20 months, listing the ministry’s achievements, including implementing the majority of the FATF requirements. Although there were challenges the ministry was able to deliver the majority of the requirements of the FATF and taking some kinetic and non-kinetic measures including legislative amendments. Pakistan was placed in the FATF grey list in 2018 on the ground that the country failed to take measures against terror financing. A 15-month time frame was given to implement its 27-point action plan. (Rizwan Shehzad, “Pakistan meets major FATF conditions: Shah,” The Express Tribune, 11 June 2020)

IHC Chief Justice will take up the petition of the Sugar Inquiry Commission report
The commission’s report has accused the family of PTI leader for misuse of public money and mass stocking leading to an increase in the price of the commodity. The petition states that “misconception as regards the law, accounting norms, and facts as well as the basic principle of demand and supply that determine the price.” To counter, the petitioners have asked to not consider this report and requested directions from the court to detain the individuals from filing further cases. (Malik Asad, “Sugar barons challenge inquiry commission report,” Dawn, 11 June 2020)

A blast in Miramshah kills two soldiers
The Officials have reported that in the area of Tapai, where the army’s bomb disposal squad were on watch. A remote-controlled device had caused an explosion killing two army personnel and four others were said to be injured. Currently, security forces are inspecting the case. (“Two security men martyred in blast near Miramshah,” Dawn, 11 June 2020)

AFGHANISTAN
COAS visit to Kabul
An editorial in the Dawn looks into the recent visit of General Bajwa to Kabul, where he met with both President Ashraf Ghani as well as Abdullah Abdullah. Given that the ongoing peace process is in Afghanistan with both regional and global efforts, the editorial claims that recent visit is to view from this perspective. The editorial also looks into the military-led initiative and its role in the matter. The editorial concludes by stating that the government as well as the Taliban must take the lead in brokering a lasting peace, and regional states, including Pakistan, must facilitate the process. (“COAS Kabul visit,” Dawn, 11 June 2020)

PROVINCES
Sindh not Islamabad’s colony: Murad Ali Shah
While addressing a press conference the Chief Minister of Sindh stated that the federal government’s decision to carry out its development work through the Sindh Infrastructure Development Company Limited (SIDCL) is unacceptable. Further, stating that Sindh is not Islamabad’s colony. Shah said that Sindh has not been given any new scheme in the next Public Sector Development Programme 2020-21 except two energy schemes. Further, he expressed his objection to the SIDCL and why such companies have not been formed in other provinces where the federal government was investing massively, reiterated that Sindh was not a colony of Islamabad where development was being done through a federally controlled company. (“Sindh is not Islamabad’s colony: Murad Ali Shah,” The News International, 11 June 2020)

Sindh Government issues warning to suspend public transport
Amid the repeated violations of the standard operating procedures (SOPs), the Sindh Transport and Mass Transit Department has warned the suspension of intra-city public transport in the province days after restrictions were lifted. Sindh Transport and Mass Transit Minister has stated that the department had received hundreds of complaints about violations of the SOPs for public transport, further adding that these violations could pose a great risk in the spread of the virus. Further, the minister stated that violates are not fazed by the penalties and that there was no cooperation from the traffic police as well. (“Sindh govt warns to suspend public transport amid SOPs violations,” The Express Tribune, 11 June 2020)

ECONOMY
ADB approves 500-million-dollar loan to Pakistan
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a 500-million-dollar loan to Pakistan for social protection, health, and fiscal stimulus for growth and job creation. The loan would assist social protection programmes to the poor and vulnerable, expand health sector capabilities, and deliver a pro-poor fiscal stimulus to boost growth and create jobs amid the pandemic. The loan will be funded through the Covid-19 pandemic response option (CPRO) under ADB’s Countercyclical Support Facility. (“ADB okays $500m loan to Pakistan,” Dawn, 11 June 2020)

Pakistan auto industry faces slump
The auto industry in Pakistan has started back its operations. Although the output is unlike April, the sales are in a slump for May. As per the Automotive Manufacturers Association data, the production of heavy vehicles has not started yet but in regards to the four-wheeler and two-wheeler vehicles, the sales have declined drastically. (Aamir Shafaat Khan, “May auto data paints bleak picture,” Dawn, 11 June 2020)

The Paris club grants debt relief to Pakistan
In the G20 countries, Pakistan has been one of the poorest countries to receive debt relief as part of a measure to deal with the pandemic. It has been given by the Paris club which is a set of creditors coordinated by the finance ministry of France. The total debt relief of 1.1 billion euros has been waived off for 12 countries which includes Pakistan. (“Pakistan secures debt relief from Paris Club,” Dawn, 11 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff made an impromptu visit to Kabul on 9 June 2020 and met with Ashraf Ghani, the President of Afghanistan, and also Abdullah Abdullah, the other power centre in Kabul. It was a high profile visit for Pakistan; Gen Bajwa was accompanied by two Lt Gen Faiz Hameed (Director General, ISIS) and Muhammad Sadiq (Pakistan's new Special Envoy on Afghanistan).

While the visit was a sudden development, the purpose and the pressure behind his visit may not be. Consider the following: a few days earlier Amb Zalmay Khalilzad met Gen Bajwa in Islamabad. ("Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, US Special Representative for Afghan Reconciliation called on General Qamar Javed Bajwa, Chief of Army Staff (COAS), today," ISPR, 7 June 2020); on 7 June 2020, Khalilzad, along with Gen Scott Miller (Commander of the US forces in Afghanistan) met with Taliban leadership in Doha led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. According to a VOA note, referring to a Taliban tweet, "both sides talked about speedy release of the prisoners and commencement of intra-Afghan negotiations, in addition to other relevant matters." ("US Envoy Discusses Afghan Peace With Taliban, Pakistan," VOA News, 8 June 2020); Abdullah Abdullah, who is now the chief of the High Council for National Reconciliation, confirmed that the intra-Afghan dialogue with the Taliban would begin soon. ("Intra-Afghan talks to begin soon: Abdullah," The Hindu, 9 June 2020)

So, it is obvious why Gen Bajwa is in Kabul. To convince the Afghan leadership about Pakistan's support to the intra-Afghan dialogue. Though Ghani and Abdullah do not see eye to eye on many issues, both agree on Pakistan's sincerity or insincerity in achieving peace in Afghanistan as Kabul would want to. Both believe that Pakistan supports the Taliban, if not totally control it. Khalilzad should have pressurised Pakistan's leadership to have a direct talk with the Afghan leadership in Kabul.

The fact that the Army Chief and ISI Chief took this trip to Kabul, instead of Pakistan's foreign minister or the foreign secretary should underline where the power centre is within Pakistan – Islamabad or Rawalpindi. Though the newly appointed Pakistan envoy for Afghanistan also accompanied the former, it should have been on second thought.

Beyond the rhetoric that would appear in the media, what would the delegation from Pakistan have talked to the Afghan leadership? What could Khalilzad have asked Pakistan's army chief to convey?

In Focus
Center troubled by 'artificial' petrol shortage
PM Imran Khan, on 9 June, while chairing a federal cabinet meeting, directed OGRA (the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority) to ensure nationwide petroleum supply within 48 to 72 hours. Imran said the Center had noticed the "artificial" fuel shortage that had been created; warned against strict reprimanding of the instigators, and asked OGRA to ensure all oil marketing companies maintained a minimum of 21-day stock to meet their license requirements. 

When the novel coronavirus hit Pakistan, people were urged to not panic-buy fuel. Later, on OGRA's recommendation, fuel prices for June were reduced; following which, the depots ran dry immediately. Observing the "artificial" shortage, the federal government commenced an inquiry, headed by a Federal Investigation Agency representative, against OMCs regarding the oil-crisis. OGRA identified six OMCs involved in the issue and issued show-cause notices to them. Joint raiding teams, including officials from the FIA, petroleum division, OGRA and district administrations inspected the petrol depots. Those found hoarding would face severe consequences including the imposition of heavy fines, suspension, license-cancellation and arrest.

The Oil Companies Advisory Council, an independent organisation comprising of the OMCs, refineries and a pipeline company, has maintained that the easing of the pandemic lockdown had caused a 50 per cent surge in fuel purchasing; thus, causing its depletion.

Meanwhile, the PM also directed an inquiry into the sugar scam, reaffirming and reiterating that those involved would not be spared. The committee encompassing the Deputy Chairman Planning Commission, Secretary Aviation and Secretary Ministry of Industries and Production was also approved to investigate the issue of "sabotaging" the IRSA telemetry system, installed by WAPDA in early 2000s. ("'Artificial' petrol shortage irks federal cabinet," The Express Tribune, 10 June 2020) 

Image Source: The News

In Brief

COVID-19
Pakistan did not meet any of the perquisites for the opening of the lockdown: WHO
Critical of the hurried decision to ease the lockdown, the WHO stated that Pakistan is among the top 10 countries that are reporting the highest number of COVID-19 cases and has advised the government to increase its testing capacity. Also, as a strategy, the WHO recommended that a two-week lockdown be imposed in the country to curb the transmission rate of the virus. Further, the WHO alerted Pakistan on its week surveillance system stating that there is a limited capacity to provide critical care and that the population is not ready to adopt the changes that have to be made. (Asif Chaudhry, "WHO urges two-week lockdown, more tests," Dawn, 10 June 2020) 

The highest number of cases and deaths reported in the 24 hours but no plan on lockdown 
With 4920 cases, 104 deaths reposted and 24620 tests being conducted in the last 24 hours, PM Imran Khan has once again made it clear that imposing another lockdown is not possible due to the current economic conditions. Addressing a federal cabinet meeting, the PM stated that the only option for reducing the spread of the virus was to take precautionary measures. Further, he directed the cabinet members to ensure that the SOPs are implemented and strictly adhered to. (Ikram Junaidi, "104 Covid-19 deaths recorded in single day," Dawn, 10 June 2020) 

With no prevention strategy, Pakistan turns catastrophic.
The editorial in Dawn states that the inefficiency between the State and Provincial governments in the follow-up of the lockdown and SOP guidelines has resulted in a mass spread of the virus in Pakistan. The worry is no more on easing measures to allow prayers during Ramzan but the lack of space and beds to treat people infected with Covid-19. The editorial ends by asking the government to look inward to detect the deviation and bring remedy. ("Path of disaster," Dawn, 10 June 2020) 

INTERNAL
PM orders inquiry into the sugar scam
PM Imran Khan has ordered an inquiry into the sugar scam reiterating that action will be taken to those involved in the scam regardless of their status or political associations. He issued directives for being down the price of sugar and approved the decisions of the Economic Coordination Committee and also approved a massive investigation through accountability organisations against the sugar cartel. Further, the National Accounta­bility Bureau (NAB), Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP), State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) and Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) will also be investigating various allegations. (Syed Irfan Raza, "PM wants sugar scam inquiry taken to logical end," Dawn, 10 June 2020) 

PA shows support to construct Diamer Basha Dam
Punjab Assembly passed a resolution unanimously to support the construction of Diamer Basha Dam during its private member's meeting. The PTI led government in the Punjab province lauded the Center's decision on the Dam project that would bring over 4000-megawatt electricity. ("PA supports Diamer Basha Dam," The News International, 10 June 2020)  

PM says ensure petrol and sugar at a fair price
The cabinet that met on Tuesday with Prime Minister Imran Khan ensured provisions on fair price after taking note of the artificial shortage of petrol in the country and price hike in sugar production. He directed the Petroleum Ministry to form a joint raiding team to inspect petrol depots. He said that punitive actions would be taken if found involved in hoarding petrol stocks and reminded that the law allows them to forcefully release stocks from the companies. ("Sugar to be cheap, petrol in plenty: Ensure provision on fair prices, says PM," The News International, 10 June 2020)      

Sedition Law in Pakistan gaining spotlight
The former chairman Raza Rabbani presented a bill to revoke sedition from Pakistan's penal code. State authorities have been controlling the voices of Civil rights activists, student leaders and academics under this rule. Many people have protested for the arrested individuals but when it comes to related petitions in the High court, it has not been sound enough. The editorial in Dawn states that these laws belonged to the colonial-era and must not persist at present. ("Archaic law," Dawn, 10 June 2020) 

PROVINCES
Punjab amends Punjab Curriculum and Textbooks board bill
Punjab assembly passed the Punjab Curriculum and Text Book Board (amendment) bill 2020 during its private member's meeting. The bill states that contents relating to Islam will not be published in textbooks without prior approval from Muttahida Ulema Board Punjab. It was approved as it would protect 'Khatme Nabuwwat' and close the door to the spread of evil through textbooks with reference to Islam. ("Muttahida Ulema Board to approve all textbooks related to Islam in Punjab," The Nation, 10 June 2020) 

ECONOMY
"This year's data are not to the expectations", Economic Survey 2019-20
The Economic survey for the year 2019-20 will be released by the federal government on 11 June, a day before the budget presentation for the next fiscal year. The outgoing year's data are not to the expectations as it had not reached the major targets set for the year. According to the planning commission's working paper, the federal budget for the next fiscal year will target 2.3 percent growth in the gross domestic product with the contributions from the agriculture and service industry. ("Economic Survey to be released on Thursday," The Express Tribune, 10 June 2020)    

EXTERNAL
Gen Bajwa meets President Ghani, Abdullah in Kabul
A meeting between Afghanistan's President Ashraf Ghani, Abdullah Abdullah and Gen Bajwa was convened in Kabuk. The two sides conversed on conflict issues and establishing peace measures in the region. This meeting is also said to be a step towards future intra-Afghan talks. Peace talks went smoothly due to Eid ceasefire, lesser violence and release of prisoners from both sides. ("Pakistan renews efforts for intra-Afghan dialogue," Dawn, 10 June 2020) 

First flight to depart from Islamabad tomorrow under the UAE rules
The resumption of flights from Pakistan starts tomorrow through Emirates after a long break of Covid-19. The flights will be operated with comprehensive safety measures for the customers and its employees in all contact points. As per the UAE government guidelines, passengers will go through temperature check after landing and the staff will be in personal protective equipment to keep a distance from people. (Mohammad Asghar, "Emirates resumes flights from Pakistan after two months," Dawn, 10 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

Feeling the heat of the pandemic the Supreme Court has issued a revised verdict on 8 June by asking the government to adopt national legislation instead of using executive orders for SOPs enforcement. (Hasnaat Malik, "SC asks govt to draft Covid-19 legislation," The Express Tribune, 8 June 2020) A four-member larger bench of the apex court headed by Chief Justice reminded the federal government to take the health crisis seriously and come up with uniform national legislation. With the situation getting worse they urged that all four provincial governments come together with the federal government taking the lead, formulate a strategy to meet the Covid-19 threat. The bench also noted that although the provinces had their respective legislations for coronavirus, nothing was being done at the national level. (Sohail Khan, "SC 'feeling' heat of coronavirus," The News International, 9 June 2020)

Further, the court has directed the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) to submit complete details relating to the import of machinery for preparation of medical equipment at the next hearing. The court adjourned the hearing for two weeks. (Nasir Iqbal, "SC tells govt to take Covid-19 seriously," Dawn, 9 June 2020)

The SC withdrew its original verdict issued on 18 May to open markets and shopping malls over the weekend owning to the Eid festival. Its earlier statement on COVID-19 not being a pandemic in Pakistan and that authorities should not put all their resources for this one disease and push the country into further chaos left many concerned. This decision was seen as yet another instance of judicial overreach into executive matters and raised concerns, for now, it not only the executive body that failed to prioritize the threat and seriousness of the coronavirus but the judiciary had also followed suit.

Further, it highlighted the ongoing bickering and discord between the centre and province which has only diluted the seriousness of the pandemic leaving an unclear and confusing message from the government that has led to the violation of SOPs that have been put in place and each province carrying out their own agenda. The concerned response to this verdict was seen in an editorial in Dawn ("SC order," Dawn, 20 May 2020) where it cautioned two things - the failure of a non-partisan approach, and second about judicial activism. Another editorial ("State of anarchy," Dawn, 20 May 2020) questions the wisdom of the court's decision.

Now, the SC has gone back to its initial veridic that it issued on 7 April which highlighted the importance of national level legislation, and issued that federal government to address this matter seriously at a national level. With the judiciary coming around to understanding the seriousness of the pandemic, the issue that still remains is the centre- province differences on the matter, will there be consensus and coordination among them is let to be answered, and if there is how will this uniform legislation be formulated and implemented given the complex relationship. 

Image Source: The News

In Brief

COVID-19
The anticipated Pandemic peak is straining hospitals. 
Pakistan's major hospital facilities are running short of capacity. General secretary of Pakistan Medical Association says the situation had been anticipated from day one. As per the Pak Neghayban app, few ventilators are available in few hospitals and vacancies are available in quarantine facilities. According to officials, KP requires more beds; Punjab has 462 vacant ventilators; 2,148 beds are available in Balochistan; and Karachi's hospitals already lack ICU vacancies. ("Hospitals under strain as Covid-19 peak approaches," Dawn, 9 June 2020)

The Supreme Court urges the Center to take the pandemic seriously
The Chief Justice of Pakistan Gulzar Ahmed asks Center to adopt national legislation and not use executive orders for enforcement of SOPs. The SC bench also sought the detailed record of undertaken measures to tackle locust crisis from the NDMA and the Department of Plant Protection. Complete records of wet-lease aircrafts acquired from Turkey to spray insecticides were summoned. ("SC tells govt to take Covid-19 seriously," Dawn, 9 June 2020)

PM calls the upcoming two-and-a-half months crucial
Imran Khan said the Covid-19 peak in Pakistan, expected around August, could be controlled by religiously practicing the SOPs. He stressed the need for wearing masks; the need for running the economy; said that the global understanding of the pandemic lockdown was shifting; urged citizens to utilize the Nigehban Pakistan app; and said 1,000 additional beds (complete with oxygen facility) would be provided to hospitals to ease their strain. ("Imran says next two-and-a-half months are crucial," Dawn, 9 June 2020)

Health sector resources will soon run out
According to News International, a health department official, pleading anonymity, has said Pakistan's health sector resources will run out in the next few days. He says many cities have reached saturation points; and professionals have already been overburdened by field work. ("Health sector resources about to get exhausted," The News International, 9 June 2020)

INTERNAL
The Sugar Scandal Action Plan
Seven provincial and federal institutions will commence seven types of regulatory, criminal and tax related proceedings against those accused by the sugar commission report. Former PM Shahid Khaqan Abbas, Punjab CM Usman Buzdar, Sindh CM Murad Ali Shah, some other PPP leaders, and federal cabinet members Asad Umar, Arbab Shahzad and Razak Dawood will be questioned by the NAB. ("Which dept will do what to fix sugar mafia," The News International, 9 June 2020)

Opposition and Treasury say Locust attack may turn Pakistan into Ethiopia
On 8 June, during the national assembly meeting, the Opposition and the treasury warned the Center to treat the locust crisis on emergency basis, as it would prove worse than Covid-19 by turning Pakistan into Ethiopia. The Opposition blamed the federal government of being unprepared despite warnings. The issue of Pakistanis stranded overseas was also raised in the assembly. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 (Prevention of Smuggling) Ordinance, 2020; Financial Institutions (Secured Transactions) (Amendment) Ordinance, 2020; and the Pakistan Single Window Bill, 2020 were laid before the house. (Locust may prove to be more disastrous than COVID-19," The Nation, 9 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

An editorial in the Dawn titled “Flight from reality,” by Amb Maleeha Lodhi is critical of the government’s actions amid the pandemic. (Maleeha Lodhi, “Flight from reality,” Dawn, 8 June 2020) Lodhi states that the government has chosen to remain in a state of denial about the serious health crisis that is taking over the country. With most of the restrictions being lifted and acknowledgement that coronavirus cases will multiply the plan adopted by the government is risky. Lodhi argues that the government’s distractions from managing the crisis seem to be increasing by the day, commenting on the government’s actions from day one.

First, the government has downplayed the seriousness of this health emergency from the beginning with its mixed public messages. This has left both the people and media in a confused state and resulted in violations of the SOPs that were out in place. With the government portraying that Pakistan was much better off than the world’s worst-affected countries meant setting the lowest bar for crisis management in the country and hid the grave realities of the pandemic all together.

Second, the government late response to the crisis. A coherent and consistent strategy to contain the virus was the key to fight the virus, the lack of which push the situation to get worse in the country. Further, early intervention of the lockdown was required to stop the spread of infection and ensure public compliance with SOPs in the smart lockdown phase. However, both were not achieved. Most importantly, the ground on which the government formed its response was to view the pandemic through an economic and not a public health prism is where the mistake was made.

Lodhi concluded by stated that the government needs to learn from its mistakes and not repeat them. With the situation worsening in the country the government needs to carefully review its policy of lifting restrictions and take measures to ensure the SOPs are strictly followed.

Image Source: Dawn

In Brief

INTERNAL
In the tribal regions, “Old ways die-hard” says Dawn in its editorial
Jirgas are the all-men council of tribal communities who acted as the panchayats at the local level until the amendment in 2019 but the latest incidents in Waziristan show that the “old ways die hard”. The editorial in Dawn recalls the bad old days of the semi-autonomous federally administered Tribal areas where the people were deprived of judicial protection of their fundamental rights and emphasise the state to take a monopoly injustice. (“When jirgas abet crime,” Dawn 8 June 2020)

Demand for three weeks lockdown in Punjab
The opposition parties in Punjab demands lockdown for three weeks in the six severely affected cities. This follows the accusations made by the opposition on the provincial government for not only concealing coronavirus deaths but also the count of affected patients in the province. (“Opposition wants three-week lockdown in six Punjab cities,” Dawn 8 June 2020)

An investigation into "Sugar Cartel" scam, approves PM
Prime Minister Imran Khan approves the investigation on the "sugar cartel" case that is involved in multibillion-rupee scam for the past 25 years. The scam is involved with several bigwigs from the National Assembly and it could expose a lot of opposition party members during investigation. The Information Minister said, "The government will take on all mafia in the country one by one no matter how rich or politically powerful. No exceptions can be made" during his press briefing. ("Sugar Cartel' to face full brunt of law," Dawn, 8 June 2020)  

EXTERNAL
US special representative met Pakistan’s Army Chief on the Afghan reconciliation process.
The US special representative for Afghan reconciliation assent with Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff to continue working with mutually agreed goals in Afghanistan as a step for regional peace situation. The meeting also discussed the mutual interest of the US and Pakistan in Afghan’s peace process, Afghan refugees’ issue, and Pak-Afghan border management. (“Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, US Special Representative for Afghan Reconciliation called on General Qamar Javed Bajwa, Chief of Army Staff (COAS), today,” ISPR, 7 June 2020)

ECONOMY
World Bank projects a negative growth rate for the next fiscal year
The Global Economic Prospective Report released by the World Bank has stated a negative -1 percent GDP growth for Pakistan in the upcoming fiscal year 2020-21. This stands contrary to the Pakistan National Accounts committee’s projection of 2.3 per cent GDP growth in the next budget year 2020-21. The World Bank report identifies the various reasons for deceleration on growth rates like depreciation of Pakistani rupees, budget deficit, and fall in revenue collection. (“World Bank projects -1pc GDP growth for Pakistan in 2020-21,” The News International, 8 June 2020)

Attentions to developmental projects in the budget year 2020-21, says Imran Khan
Prime Minister Imran Khan called the provincial governments to pay attention to the developmental projects rather than the non-developmental budgets for the financial year 2020-21. He reiterated on the exceptional circumstance caused by the spread of coronavirus and insisted provinces to prioritize budgets in the development of special economic zones and agriculture and to reduce the unnecessary governmental expenditures. The private sectors are to be facilitated in developmental projects under the public-private partnership. (“Budget 2020-21: PM Imran for the increase in development budget,” The News International, 8 June 2020)

“Hoping for mutual convenient middle path”, an editorial in The Express Tribune  
An editorial in The Express Tribune discusses the IMF's demand to freeze salaries of government employees and the state’s decision to increase the salaries by 20 per cent. Due to unsustainable public debt that is set to consume 90 per cent of the total national economy, IMF prescribes for the fiscal consolidation path. However, due to the high inflation caused Pakistan is taking a risky step in the hope of striking a mutually convenient middle path in the upcoming negotiations with the IMF. (“IMF’s harsh demands,” The Express Tribune, 8 June 2020) 

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

South Waziristan: An Ahmadzai Wazir tribe plans to raise a Lashkar to demolish the house of an ANP leader, as the government remains a spectator

In the news
It all started on 4 June 2020, when the administration convened a jirga in Wana of local elders belonging to the Ahmadzai tribes in South Waziristan. The primary agenda for the local administration was to ensure the targeted killings in the region comes to a stop. The jirga was chaired by the Deputy Commissioner.

During the jirga, Ayaz Wazir, a tribal leader belonging to the ANP suggested that the police be given the power to raid the houses of those who are wanted, to prevent crimes. All hell broke, as the tribal elders considered the suggestion as against the tribal customs.

The Ahmadzai Wazirs held a separate jirga on 5 June and decided to raise a Lashkar to demolish the house of Ayaz Wazir. On 6 June, they reconvened again and decided to go ahead with the decision first. However, better sense prevailed, as the jirga withdrew its decision, as the Jakhel clan of the Ahmadzai Wazir tribe (to which Ayaz Wazir belong to) approached the jirga with four sheeps and agreed to pay a fine of one million rupees. Offering sheeps is considered as a part of the tribal tradition to appeal for peace and request forgiveness.

Issues in the background
What happened in South Waziristan during the last four days highlight one of the larger problems of mainstreaming the tribal regions of the former FATA, despite their merger with the KP province.

Despite the presence of administration and political parties (JUI-F, ANP, PTI, PPP and PML-N), the primary decision-making process remains with the tribal elders. The ANP has been complaining that this leadership has been either abdicated by the local leaders to the pro-Taliban commanders, or the latter has usurped it from the former. During the previous elections in 2013 and 2019, political parties like the ANP and PPP were not allowed to fly even their party flags on top of their houses and party offices. The ANP has been questioning the role of the jirgas and peace committees in South Waziristan.

Third, the local administration and even the security forces are seen with going along with the local committees to maintain peace. The recent jirga was actually convened by the administration, following a series of targeted killings in the region.

Fourth, the targeted killings in South Waziristan. From leaders belonging to parties and movements, to others, there has been a spate of killings during the recent weeks in Waziristan. The administration has been unable to maintain law and order, and one of the reasons for convening the jirga was to address the issue.
 

Two years of KP-FATA merger

In the news
May 2020 marked two years of the merger of the Federally Administered Tribal Agencies (FATA) into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province.

One of the primary objectives of the merger was mainstreaming the FATA region; there was a specific request from the locals, especially the youths, in the FATA on the issue. And a majority in the rest of Pakistan also wanted to go ahead with the idea of mainstreaming, to ensure that the tribal regions get developed and do not provide space for radical groups such as the Taliban. Afghanistan also figured in the local calculations. The FATA reforms committee that oversaw multiple recommendations and inputs looked into these issues before making final recommendations.

There was also positive feedback from the political parties – PPP, ANP, PML-N and the PTI on the idea of a merger. The above did not mean, there was no opposition to the idea. A section within the local elders, Taliban and even the political agents, opposed the idea of the merger for different reasons. Religious political parties such as the JUI-F and a section within the ulema in the FATA were also against the merger.

The KP provincial assembly went ahead with the bill for the merger in May 2018; the Parliament passed the same, and the President gave his assent on 31 May 2020.

Issues in the background
Two years since the merger, where do the tribal regions stand today? What has been the fallouts of the merger? Has the mainstreaming happened?

First, the legal merger has happened, but not the political and administrative. This has been the primary failure of the merger so far in the last two years. Second, the administration of the region is more led by the military, than the elected leadership; there was an expectation that the merger would lead to the removal of security posts and an element of demilitarization of the FATA. It is yet to happen. Third, there was also an expectation, that the local leaders, especially the tribal youths would get an opportunity in taking the lead; for example, the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement would have preferred a larger role in the tribal region. Finally, it was also expected that the Taliban and the pro-Taliban tribal groups would lose their relevance. As could be seen from the above development in South Waziristan, it has not.

For a section within the erstwhile FATA, it is the continuation of the status quo, despite the merger.
 

Record number of COVID cases; but, the government believes, the Smart Lockdown is an example for the rest of the world

In the news
On 7 June, the casualties in Pakistan due to COVID has crossed 2000. The confirmed cases are close to 100,000. Punjab with 37,000 plus recorded cases has overtaken Sindh (36,000) to be the most affected province within Pakistan.

Issues in the background
First, the staggering numbers since the last week. Both in terms of cases and the casualties, the numbers for this week were deadly for Pakistan. Last Sunday (31 May), the total cases were 66,000 plus with deaths close to 1400. The previous Sunday (24 May), the total number of cases were 53,600 plus and casualties were 1100 plus. One week earlier on 17 May, the numbers were 39,700 plus and 860 plus respectively. The data would prove there has been a steady increase in the cases and casualties during the last few weeks.

Second, the spurt in numbers highlights the failure of the Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) that the government has put in place. Media and independent analysts within Pakistan have repeatedly warned about the dangers of people not adhering to the SOPs. Unfortunately, there are being proved correct.

Third, the provincial differences within, and the Centre-Province discord on the strategy. Sindh has taken strong measures; as a result, last week, Punjab has recorded more cases than Sindh. Balochistan also has preferred to go slow with the opening; it has only 6000 plus recorded cases. KP has registered double the numbers of Balochistan – with 13,000 plus.

Finally, the refusal of the PTI government to accept that it has relaxed too early and too much. According to Imran Khan’s latest statement, “The only solution as world has discovered is smart lockdown which allows for economic activity with SOPs. We are amongst pioneers of this approach.”
 

Pakistan's Silent Women: Story of Reena and Raveena; problem solved but the issue still remains

In the news
Reena and Raveena have finally reconciled with their families after a year of conflict. (Asif Mahmood, "Hindu sisters who married Muslim men reconcile with families," The Express Tribune, 5 June 2020) The two sisters belonging to the Hindu community converted to Islam last year after they married Muslim men. In March 2019, the girls were allegedly kidnapped and forcibly converted to Islam, claiming that they were underage and thus unable to make such decisions.

The community had also staged protests for the girls to be returned home and the incident became a breaking point for the issue of forced conversion of Hindu girls. ("Protest against 'forced' conversion of Hindu girls," Dawn, 25 March 2019) (Malik Asad, "Ghotki girls' father seeks age test in 'forced conversion' case," Dawn, 2 April 2019) In response, the girls had approached the Islamabad High Court (IHC) along with their husbands, in their plea, they confessed of willingly embracing Islam and marrying Muslim men. After a detailed inquiry into the problem, the court stated the two were adult enough to make their own decisions and that they were not forced to convert.

Issues in the background

The abduction and conversion of Hindu women have been a major issue in Sindh province where the majority of Pakistani Hindus live. While some cases make it to the public eye most of these cases do not get reported.

First, kidnapping in the first step in this process. The victim is usually abducted and taken to a mosque where clerics or family members of the men either blackmail or threaten to harm the victim if she resists. The victim then complies and is brought to a local court where signing the papers affirming her conversion and marriage is the only option she might have. Most often these abductions have taken place in Sindh's rural areas of Umerkot, Tharparkar, and Ghotki where lower caste, economically vulnerable Hindu girls of marriageable age are abducted. 

Second, 'forced conversions' of young girls is a controversial issue within the Hindu community of Sindh. Upon the girl's declaration that she has wilfully converted and consented to the marriage; the case is settled without justice for the girls or their families. Further, once they convert, there is no turning back, for renunciation would mean a death sentence. In most cases, women are prohibited to meet their families on the grounds that they are nonbelievers and thus no one usually hears from these women.  

Third, loopholes in legislation and inefficient implementation and protection of women and child rights have not been able to take this issue. Pakistan has failed to protect non-Muslim women and girls from exploitation. In most of these cases, the girls are taken to Punjab to be married in Punjab, where the law does not bar marriages of those younger than 18, unlike Sindh. Further, sexual abuses are ruled out when conversion and marriage certificates are presented allowing the authorities to pardon the abductors. Further, pressure from the religious group has twisted the government's arm while addressing this issue.

Also read:

Naeem Sahoutara and Ali Ousat, "THE STRANGE CASE OF THE SILENT WOMEN," Dawn, 10 November 2019

Sulema Jahangir, "Forced conversions," Dawn, 12 April 2020

Hoodbhoy on Pakistan's dangerous "Ertugal Mania"

On 6 June, Pervez Hoodbhoy warned of the "dangerous delusional" influence the Turkish drama series, Dirilis: Ertugrul, is having on Pakistan, in his article in the Dawn. Hoodbhoy says that as of 5 June, the YouTube viewership for the 30th Urdu dubbed episode had tallied up to 5.5 million on Pakistan Television. He argues that the obsession is dangerous for numerous reasons. ("Dangerous delusions – Ertugrul mania," Dawn, 6 June 2020) ("Dubbed as the 'Muslim Game of Thrones', Pakistan is going wild over this blockbuster Turkish drama," The Economic Times, 23 May 2020)

First, Pakistanis are convinced that the series shows genuine Islamic history. Mehmet Bozdag, producer and writer of the series, agrees there is hardly any information available about the depicted era and that most sources are contradictory. The faked history flames "revivalist dreams, creates false hopes" and suggests bloody fighting is the way forward. 

Second, the series which is essentially a power-struggle within a tribal society is packed with blood, murder, conquest, and tribal intrigues, beautifully wrapped in devout religious fervor. Glorifying the sword may inspire Islamist radical terrorist organizations like the Islamic State. Also, Ertugal fuels the delusion that the way forward is to go back to the early ages of Islam. An ideology of such fundamentalist organisations.

Third, the unknown purpose of the "propagandistic and ideologically motivated" series. If it sought to counter Islamophobia and project Islam as a peaceful religion, the result has been the opposite. Numerous beheadings by the hero, Ertugal, are glorified throughout the series. The more realistic goal seems to be to ignite Turkish nostalgia for a forgotten empire. 

Fourth, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and his government are trying to promote this series as their support to Islam and use this as a means of soft power; problematic as Ertugal celebrates Turkish imperialism. This has garnered criticism from Sunni bastions such as Saudi Arabia and UAE, who have banned the series decrying it an "insidious attempt to re-impose Turkish tutelage" over formerly Ottoman-ruled Arab nations. According to the article, Saudi is presently funding a counter series "Malik-e-Nar".

Fifth, Pakistan's and Imran Khan's lauding of invaders; primarily the Turkish and post-eighth century invasions (Islamic). It is absurd for a Prime Minister to hail imperial rule over his country. ("Turks ruled India, Pakistanis amused at PM Imran Khan's history," GLIBS, 16 February 2020)

Hoodbhoy emphasizes that ancient foreign invasions must be investigated and absorbed as facts of history without condemnation or glorification. Pakistaniyat (a strong inclusive, pluralistic national identity) must birth from Pakistan; not Saudi and not Turkey, Pervez concludes.

Image Source: Dawn

In Brief

INTERNAL
A new trouble in South Waziristan, as a tribal jirga plans to raise a jirga to demolish the house of an ANP leader
The Ahmadzai Wazir tribe, one of the leading tribes within Waziristan convened a jirga again in Wana. They have decided to proceed with an earlier decision to demolish the house of Ayaz Wazir, a leader belonging to the Awami National Party (ANP) by raising a 1200 strong tribal Laskar to do the job. ("Ahmadzai Wazir tribe convenes jirga to raise Lashkar," Dawn, 6 June 2020). Earlier, the ANP has mentioned that the party would lodge an FIR against the tribal elders for “giving responsibility to maintain peace” to the local Taliban committee in South Waziristan tribal district. ("ANP plans legal action against tribal elders of South Waziristan," Dawn, 5 June 2020)

Pakistan's unabated population will explode soon
The opinion article on The News International addresses the issue of population explosion in the country and the lack of attention thrown by the federal leadership. It identifies that Pakistan has the lowest CPR of 34 per cent compared to the neighbouring countries like India and Iran due to poor service delivery. It also indicates that women rarely have the right to decide on birth control and often face critical conditions due to illegal and unsafe abortions, as Pakistan does not legally accept abortions. The opinion demands a government to respond to the unabated population growth in Pakistan that would affect a country's growth in all the ways. ("Addressing the population explosion – Part II," The News International, 6 June 2020)

The state of Workers in Pakistan steel mills under threat
The Government has decided to remove 9,350 employees from its steel mill. The article in dawn gives two reasons behind the act. Firstly, it blames poor management and secondly, it claims that the people appointed in the top post were less experienced which has caused damage to the mill more than over-staffing. The Government has responded that the decision is taken only as a step to refurbish the mill. The editorial ends with the question "What kind of restructuring plan calls for mass layoffs unless investors are more interested in the enterprise's assets than in resurrecting it?" ("PSM workers' sacking," Dawn, 6 June 2020)

COVID-19
Pakistan hospitals go online 
The National Coordination and Operation Centre brought 15,450 hospitals online, which has recorded 5,000 new positive cases in 24 hours. It also witnessed the highest single-day death toll crossing 100 mark in Pakistan taking total fatal cases to 1,935. NCOC has launched an app to provide information on the availability of ventilators hospital facilities to the public. ("Record number of COVID 19 cases, deaths in 24 hours," Dawn, 6 June 2020)

Imposing another lockdown, not an option: PM Imran Khan
At a media briefing, PM Imran Khan rejected the option of imposing another lockdown stating that the country could not afford another lockdown. Further, supporting his decision, he stated that nothing positive has come out of these lockdowns, adding that they have only created havoc in the whole world, leaving many countries in debt. He urged people to follow the Government's SOPs that have been out in place for curbing the spread of the virus. ("PM rejects option of imposing another lockdown," Dawn, 6 June 2020)

ECONOMY
Pakistan among top borrowers of the ADB
Pakistan is one of the top three borrowers from the Asian Development Bank in the last year with an outstanding loan exceeding 12 billion dollars. A bank's report shows that India, China, and Pakistan as the largest borrowers from ADB accounting for 43 per cent of the portfolio in 2019. The sum of disbursed and outstanding loan balances presents a value that equates to 11 per cent of total exposure in the year 2019. ("Pakistan tops ADB borrowers with $12bln outstanding in 2019," The News International, 6 June 2020)

Pakistan signs 300-million-dollar loan agreement for developing medical infrastructure
Pakistan signs a 300-million-dollar loan agreement with Asian Development bank to aid and strengthen public health responses and poor segments of the society which is largely affected due to coronavirus pandemic. The ADB funding will be used to assist the social protection program, cash transferring to the poor people, and to develop the medical infrastructure in Pakistan. ("Pakistan, ADB sign $300m loan agreement," The News International, 6 June 2020)

Pandemic is set to have a spillover impact in the next fiscal year 
A meeting was convened to assess the economic situation in the post-COVID-19 situation. The Planning Commission predicted a 2.3 per cent of growth rate, but the ministry of finance along with the State Bank of Pakistan and Asian development has denied it. They projected a 1.9 per cent GDP with a reduction from 44 trillion rupees to 41.5 trillion rupees. (Khaleeq Kiani, "Pakistan has suffered Rs2.5tr loss because of Covid-19," Dawn, 6 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

COVID-19
Sindh CM blames the centre for rapid spread of the virus
Syed Murad Ali Shah, Chief Minister of Sindh, blamed the federal government for the rapid spread of Covid-19 across the country. He stated that the rapid spread was because the government failed to check all borders initially when the virus broke out. Mr. Shah also blamed the federal government for their inadequacy in sending out a strong and clear statement regarding SOPs which the people have violated. Further, he urged PM Imran Khan to think for the whole country keeping in view the lives of people. (Syed Irfan Raza, "Murad blames Centre for rapid virus spread," Dawn, 5 June 2020)

Highest single day spike of Covid-19 test 
Highest number of Covid-19 tests conducted were conducted in a single day with the country already surpassed China in terms of the number of Covid-19 affected persons, witnessed nearly 900 new coronavirus cases in the last 24 hours. Data released by the National Command and Control Centre (NCOC) on 4 May showed that 20167 coronavirus tests were conducted on 3 June only. A total of over 610,000 Covid-19 tests have so far been conducted in the country. With the staggering rise of cases, the authorities have started taking action against those violating the SOPs at public places in various parts of the country on the recommendations of the NCOC. (Ikram Junaidi, "Highest number of Covid-19 tests in single day," Dawn, 5 June 2020)

LOCUST ATTACKS
Pakistan, India join forces to fight locusts
On 4 June, the Foreign Office (FO) stated that Pakistan and India are cooperating with each other to tackle the locust attacks under the forum administered by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). Further FO Spokesperson said Pakistan "remains committed to cooperating with all SWAC member states, including India, in combating Desert Locust outbreak". Despite tension running high between the two, the locust issue has always been an area of cooperation over the years. ("Pakistan, India working to fight locusts: FO," Dawn, 5 June 2020)

Army to support NLCC in combating locust attack
The Chief of Army staffs assures army support to the nation in battling locust attacks. He said that the army would assist the National Locust Control Centre with all possible resources and civil administration in combating locust attacks while briefing the meeting with the NLCC coordinator in Rawalpindi. He said locust as a threat to national food security and the need to take effective operations to mitigate the negative economic impact of the attack. ("General Qamar Javed Bajwa assures Army's assistance in combating locusts," The News International, 5 June 2020)

INTERNAL
ANP accuses local maliks of South Waziristan for allowing the local Taliban
The Awami National Party have accused the tribal groups in Waziristan for letting the local Taliban to take responsibility to maintain peace in the district. The President stated that the Taliban were a security threat to the region as they were involved earlier in terrorist attacks killing close to 800 leaders and workers. He said that the government has been mute on this issue but the party will file a FIR for the actions of the tribal groups. ("ANP plans legal action against tribal elders of South Waziristan," Dawn, 5 June 2020)

Hindu girls married to Islam men finally reconciled with family
The controversial marriage of two sisters from the Hindu community married to Islam men forcefully was finally reconciled with their family after them reporting in Islamabad High Court that they are taken with their personal concern and happily living with their in-laws. Allegations of teenage girls being abducted by Islam men and forcefully converting their religion by marrying them as second wives have become a serious concern over recent period in Punjab and Sindh. ("Hindu sisters who married Muslim men reconcile with families," The Express Tribune, 5 June 2020)

Police officials report a bomb blast in Bajaur district
The Police reported two casualties due to bomb blast that took place at 5 pm in Damadola locality. The decedents were said to have passed through a dry canal in a motorcycle when the blast took place and when rushed to the hospital by the other people, one of them passed away while being treated. (Anwarullah Khan, "Two die in Bajaur bomb blast," Dawn, 5 June 2020)

Tensions in Supreme Court on Justice Isa Case
In the recent Court hearing of the Justice Qazi, the judge has questioned the complaint raised by the Assets Recovery Unit (ARU) on confirming the accumulation of assets by Qazi. He stated that the approval of reference by the president could have been supported by false legal advice and raised the point that ARU must have handed the issue to the Federal Investigation Agency. The court adjourned by concluding that the accusations placed by the federation against Justice Qazi were weightless. (Justice Faez, "Isa case: Name the man who 'advised' reference, SC asks counsel," The News International, 5 June 5, 2020)

ECONOMY
Pakistan should cut non-development expenditures say IMF
The International Monetary Fund demands Pakistan to freeze all the non-development expenditures including salaries and defence to cut down the primary deficit in the outgoing fiscal year. The IMF staff said Pakistan's debt liabilities had touched rupees 42,840 billion so far which equivalents to 98.2 per cent of GDP hence it needs to bring down the primary deficit from projected negative 2.9 percent in outgoing fiscal to -0.4 percent of GDP in the next budget for 2020-21. ("Freeze non-development expenditure, demands IMF," The News International, 5 June 2020)  

ON INDIA
India is using terrorism as state policy, says Pakistan
Pakistan accuses India of using terrorism as a state policy to destabilize its neighbouring states. Pakistan's Foreign Office said that India has falsified the contents of the UN's eleventh report by the support and sanctions monitoring team and attempting to mislead the international community by slandering Pakistan. FO points out this action as a revelation of India's agenda to create complications in the Afghan peace process. ("India creating complications for the Afghan peace process: FO," The News International, 5 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

In Focus

Imran receives a briefing at the ISI HQ on complex regional and domestic challenges

In the News
On 3 June, amid escalating India-Pakistan tensions, Prime Minister Imran Khan vowed to not compromise on national security during an intelligence briefing on 'complex regional and domestic challenges' at the headquarters of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). 

Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Chief of Army Staff Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, Planning Minister Asad Umar and ISI Director General Lt Gen Faiz Hamid also took part in the meeting. ("No compromise on security, says Imran," Dawn, 4 June 2020) 

Issues in background
The meeting is taking place in an environment where there has been numerous complaints about India and Pakistan warning India of any misadventures. Consider the following:

First, Imran Khan's threats on false-flag operations. On 18 May, the PM said India was getting ready for a false-flag operation to divert global attention from the Kashmir issue. An absurd logic. Previously, in December 2019 as well, he had spoken of such an operation by India and Pakistan's befitting response. ("India may conduct false flag operation, says Imran," Dawn, 18 May 2020 & "Pakistan will give befitting response if India undertakes false-flag operation: PM Imran," Dawn, 21 December 2020) Imran Khan has time and again accused India for its' expansionist policy', double-lockdown in Kashmir, changes in Kashmir's domicile law and called India a South Asian security threat. ("PM says no effort will be spared for sovereignty, security," The Nation, 4 June 2020)

Second, the frequent featuring of atrocities and military adventurism by India in the Inter-Services Public Relations press releases. On 3 June, ISPR Director General Maj Gen Babar Iftikhar cautioned India to "not play with fire" and warned that any military adventurism would be met with "uncontrollable and unintended consequences". (Press Releases, ISPR) ("DG ISPR warns India of 'uncontrollable' consequences in case of military adventurism," Dawn, 3 June 2020). The Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa's while visiting the LoC, and celebrating Eid-ul-Fitr with soldiers he said that Pakistan Army was observing Eid solemnly in solidarity with Kashmiris facing ensuing atrocities and inhuman lockdown under Indian occupation (particularly post 5 August 2019). ("Army celebrating Eid in solidarity with Kashmiris: COAS," The Nation, 24 May 2020) ("Army observing Eid solemnly in solidarity with Kashmiris under 'illegal, inhuman' lockdown: ISPR," Dawn, 24 May 2020)

Third, the expulsion of two Pakistani high commission officials from India, on 31 May, for espionage. They were accused of gathering data on troop and military cargo movements. ("India expels Pakistan embassy officials for 'espionage'," Al Jazeera, 1 June 2020)

Last, the meeting is also taking place with developments in Afghanistan's fragile peace process amid the US withdrawal. The Ashraf Ghani-Taliban squabble over release of prisoners and the blame-game for the recent attack on the Doctors Without Borders hospital in Kabul are all ravaging the peace process. Pakistan paints India as a peace spoiler. The growing Indo-US proximity, owing to the ongoing US-China information war, is also peaking concerns for Pakistan.
 

On COVID, the worst is yet to come

The Analysis by Fahd Hussain talks about challenges faced by Pakistan in the wake of the Covid-19 explosion in the State. ("Red zone files: The next 13 weeks," Dawn, 4 June 2020)

First, to recognize the challenges in handling Covid-19. The ruling PTI's pandemic policy, an amalgam of denial and dynamism, has seen some successes (NCOC's formation) and failures (contradictory information dispensing, wavering public messaging, and confusion regarding the severity of crisis). With the worst yet to come, the Center has already failed to profit from its anti-lockdown policy. 

Second, the internal 'lockdown vs no-lockdown debate'. The inability to craft a comprehensive, coordinated, national policy that is swift enough to adapt to the mutating nature of the crisis. The government is currently focusing on operationalizing the Resource Management System (RMS) and improving Tracking Testing and Quarantine (TTQ), to enable accessibility and commutation for patients to keep the death rates low and justify the no-lockdown policy. 

Third, the 100,000 infection mark that Pakistan will soon cross. Death rates may be low, but the infection rate's dynamic nature has the potential to cause significant collateral damage within the Red Zone. 

Last, 'weak articulation' and 'mixed signalling' indicate a serious underestimation of the threat. Not taking Covid-19 seriously will prove costly for Pakistan. Underplaying the crisis will not help considering the necessity of social distancing amid a society that is currently flocking together unmasked and un-gloved. 

There is a "tacit acceptance of child labour", says Dawn in its editorial

On 31 May, Zahra Shah an eight-year-old girl was tortured to death by her employers for accidentally releasing "expensive pet parrots" from their cage in Rawalpindi. The police report stated that Zahra had sustained injuries to her face, hands, rib cage, legs, and the wounds on her thighs suggest that she might have been sexually assaulted. Zahra was employed four months ago to take care of the suspect one-year-old child in return for an education. The incident has restarted the discussion on the exploitation of minors, and child labour laws in Pakistan. (Tahir Naseer, "8-year-old girl 'beaten, killed' by employers in Rawalpindi over setting free their parrots: FIR," Dawn, 3 May 2020)

The editorial in Dawn titled "Zahra's murder" stated that there is a tacit acceptance of child labour revealing there is granted silence of child labour when it is not in a 'hazardous' capacity even though the situation in Pakistan seems otherwise. Children have for long been victims of domestic violence and being the weakest, they are the most vulnerable, and often fall prey due to their parents. Further, the editorial states that Zahra's murder only the most recent case which exemplifies the existence of modern-day slavery. The editorial strongly states that its high time that the government strengthens its child protection laws so that minors can be rescued from such situations. ("Zahra's murder," Dawn, 4 May 2020)

Critical of this incident, an editorial in the News International titled "Justice for Zohra" states that such incidents display the ugliest side of the society in which rational looking people prove themselves to be highly uncivilised. It also proves that the State has failed to eradicate poverty which forces poor people to send their children to work rather than to school. Further, it indicates that the legislative framework to prevent child labour remains inadequate. ("Justice for Zohra," The News International, 4 May 2020)

Image Source: Dawn

In Brief

INTERNAL

Three arguments on honour killing
The opinion article in Dawn exposed to light on three major arguments that are widely taken up by the activists while dealing with "honour killing" in Pakistan. First, it identifies the term "honour" for such crimes as stigmatizing culture which lends impunity under Qisas and Diyat. Second, it denies the "honour" crimes as a crime of passion instead it should be treated as normative or domestic violence. Third, the crimes are often excused under material factors like property disputes but in reality, they are predominantly designed to regulate socio-sexual behaviour. ("Ending stigma," Dawn, 4 June 2020)

The Civil aviation authority (CAA) releases a non-compliance report on the plane crash
The CAA has claimed in the report that it was the ignorance of the pilot to attend to the Air traffic controller warnings on the speed and altitude of the aircraft has resulted in the crash. Another issue it stated was the communication switch between the Approach tower and the Karachi tower. If the switch was done at the right time, Karachi tower could have spotted the landing gears ahead of the first landing to give directions to the pilot. Dawn questions on why the transfer wasn't made from the approach tower to Karachi tower (Mohammad Asghar, "Crashed plane's pilot didn't follow ATC instructions: CAA," Dawn, 4 June 2020)

Anti-graft watchdog again summons PML-N leader 
National Accountability Bureau (NAB) will re-summon the PML-N president on ninth June against money Laundering and acquiring assets case. After a failed attempt to arrest, the petitioner has been granted pre-arrest interim bail till 17 June and ordered to give bail bonds of Rs 500,000 by the High court. (Wajih Ahmad Sheikh, "Court stops NAB from arresting Shahbaz till 17th," Dawn, 4 June 2020)

The Digital Rights Foundation (DRF) reports an increase in cyber-harassment complaints
The organization stated that there has been a rise in cyber-harassment cases in the lockdown. It has identified three causal reasons which are surveillance, unauthorized use of personal data, and manipulation of such information. The cases are majorly victimizing women in Pakistan and had released a list of policy enforcements on the approach of the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) and dealing with technology tacitly in cyber harassment cases. ("Cyber harassment complaints surged during lockdown: report," Dawn, 4 June 2020)

ECONOMY
Pakistan targets 2.3 per cent growth in the next fiscal year
Pakistan targets the national economy to rebound with a 2.3 per cent in the next fiscal year despite a 0.4 per cent of economic contraction this year. The annual plan coordination committee will approve the macroeconomic targets for the next year, which is expected to have 600 billion for the public sector development program. The agriculture sector, which missed the 3.5 per cent target this year is targeted to grow by 2.9 per cent in the next year against 2.7 per cent growth this year. ("With industry stagnant, govt aims for 2.3 per cent growth next year," Dawn, 4 June 2020)

Cement sales dropped consecutively for the third month
Domestic cement sales declined for the third consecutive month by 38 percent from 3.6 million tonnes to 2.27 million in comparison with the same month of last year. The All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA) said that the negative growth in the cement industry is due to the COVID-19 and delay by the government in implementing public projects. Also, they added that the Eid holidays along with the pandemic have significantly slowed down the construction activity and declined the cement despatches. ("Cement sales plummet as construction grinds to a halt," Dawn, 4 June 2020)

ON INDIA
Don't play with fire warns DG ISI
The Director-General of Inter-Services Public Relations warned Indian military in a television interview, "Let us not play with fire. We will respond to any aggression with full might." This is to notify India that there would be consequences for any military misadventure in the region and it would be uncontrollable. He pointed out the false flag operation plans of India as a diversion to the embracement faced by India in its border with Nepal and China. ("PM briefed on national security at ISI HQ: Don't play with fire, DG ISI warns India," The News International, 4 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

In Brief

COVID-19
Covid-19 claims life of PTI lawmaker
Member of KP Assembly Mian Jamshed Uddin Kakakhel, 65, passed away on 3 June after contracting Covid-19. The MPA was elected during the 2018 general elections from the PK-63 Nowshera constituency on a PTI ticket. To this point, eight KP Assembly members have been infected with the novel coronavirus. ("PTI lawmaker Mian Jamshed Uddin Kakakhel succumbs to coronavirus," The Express Tribune, 3 June 2020) 

3938 new infections recorded in a single day
On 2 June, 3938 new infections were recorded in 24 hours as the nationwide tally of coronavirus soared to 76398. Most of the cases have been detected in Punjab, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. With the numbers increasing the Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives has directed the National Command and Operation Center (NCOC) to ask the provincial chief secretaries to present implementation mechanisms for the decisions made by the Chief Ministers at National Coordination Committee (NCC). Further, the minister stated that the coronavirus testing capacity has been increased across the country. ("Single-day spike with 3,938 new infections," The Nation, 3 June 2020)

Sindh Minister passes away due to COVID-19
Sindh Minister for human settlement, Ghulam Murtaza Baloch dies of coronavirus on Tuesday (2 June). He was tested positive on 14 May and kept in the intensive care unit due to his critical condition. He is a senior member of the Pakistan People Party who was elected to the Sindh Assembly from the Malir region and died at the age of 55. ("Sindh minister dies of coronavirus," Dawn, 3 June 2020)  

Lahore is the epicenter of the virus
The staggering numbers of COIVD-19 cases have made it the epicentre of infections, followed by Rawalpindi. Punjab Minister for Health has stated Lahore and Rawalpindi are the two most coronavirus-hit cities in the province highlighted that there are over 12000 cases only in Lahore. Additionally, the minister said that it is very important that the public take adequate precautions and follow the SOPs seriously, furthering stating that the province cannot afford a total lockdown due to the financial situation and that prevention is a solution to this disease. ("Lahore epicentre of virus outbreak," The Express Tribune, 3 May 2020)

INTERNAL
The reopening of the tourism industry is a recipe for disaster
PM Imran Khan's decision to reopen several businesses and the tourism industry although it makes sense financially will have a disastrous consequence on the healthcare infrastructure. The financial compensation of reopening the tourism industry will not balance out the disastrous health consequences that could occur due to the inherent nature of tourism. The SOPs put in place would be impossible to follow and the government has not taken into consideration the massive health risk that this poses to the locals residing in the tourist areas. Thus, the above two factors would end into a recipe for disaster. ("Increased Spread," The Nation, 3 June 2020) 

Punjab severely attacked by locust invasion
Around 25 districts of 36 in Punjab are affected due to locust attacks. The Punjab provincial government has announced a state of emergency and allocated one billion rupees to tackle the crisis. Under the Punjab Locust control plan, the provincial government has installed control rooms in every district and is working towards spraying pesticides through helicopters, said the Punjab Minister for Agriculture. ("Locust attack spreads to 25 districts," The News International, 3 June 2020) 

People who catch swarms and sell it to poultry will be given incentives, says PM
Prime Minister Imran Khan approved the new proposal to fight locust invasion. He said that people will be given incentives for catching swarms and selling it to the poultry farmers who could use them as poultry feed at the rate of 15 rupees per kilogram. He declared that the plan was already implemented in Okara and would soon be implemented across the country to boost poultry farming. ("PM backs novel proposal to fight locust invasion," Dawn, 3 June 2020) 

ECONOMY
Net inflows drastic in various sectors of Pakistan 
The net inflows into Electricity, Gas supply, Information and telecommunication sectors have accounted for the surge in foreign direct investments. While these sectors experienced a surge, inflows into other sectors like manufacturing, construction and agriculture have deteriorated due to the pandemic. Overall, Pakistan has reported a surge of 127 per cent in FDI. (Shahid Iqbal, "FDI surges 127pc in July-April," Dawn, 3 June 2020)

EXTERNAL
Early return of overseas Pakistanis
The Chief Minister of Balochistan has requested the federal government to bring back the expatriates stuck in UAE and other countries. He said although many individuals had returned an estimated 20,000 Pakistanis remain stranded overseas. He called for immediate action to retrieve them. (Saleem Shahid, "Lockdown extended for two weeks in Balochistan," Dawn, 3 June 2020)

ON INDIA
Pakistan's foreign office wants the international community to interfere in Kashmir as a response to killing of 13 Kashmiris
The Foreign Office has urged international organizations to act on recent events, which it considers a violation of international law and human rights. It stated that as the international community is engaged in tackling the pandemic, the grounds of Kashmir have become a favor to India. It also affirmed that Pakistan would continue to support Kashmiris. ("World urged to intervene over killings in held Kashmir," Dawn, 3 June 2020) 

India-China stalemate part of a larger Asian game plan
Kamran Yousaf's analysis in the Express Tribune speaks of the current spate between China and India. Kamran says the stalemate commenced with Indian construction activities in Ladakh. For him, the Indian PM Modi is silent on the China issue, contradictory to his aggressive position towards Pakistan; asks whether "the situation (will) de-escalate or lead to a larger conflict"; and points out Beijing's and New Delhi's interest to downplay the situation. He argues that the strife is more than a border issue and is a part of a larger game plan unfolding in Asia; wherein India, under Modi, is altering the status quo with Pakistan and China. ("The new Great Game in Asia?", The Express Tribune, 1 June 2020)   

Image Source: The News

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.

In Focus 

Return of the Daniel Pearl case:  Supreme Court asks the Sindh government to file a complete report

 The Supreme Court bench headed by Justice Mushir Alam, on 1 June, asked the Sindh government to submit a complete report (with all evidence) and the appeal that challenged the Sindh High Court’s 2 April verdict of overturning Ahmed Omer Saeed Sheikh and three others’ conviction for the kidnapping and murdering of Daniel Pearl in 2002. The court also asked senior counsel Faisal Siddiqui, representing Daniel’s parents – Ruth and Judea Pearl — to prepare a complete case history record. Justice Ahmed said the State had to prove through evidence that Daniel Pearl was abducted, the devised conspiracy behind the same and evidence of his murder by the accused. (“Sindh govt told to file complete report with appeal in Pearl case,” Dawn, 2 June 2020, https://www.dawn.com/news/1560672/sindh-govt-told-to-file-complete-report-with-appeal-in-pearl-case)

On 2 April 2020, the SHC in a landmark judgment overturned the verdict against the four accused persons citing insufficient evidence. (“Pakistan court overturns conviction in Daniel Pearl killing,” Al Jazeera, 2 April 2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/pakistan-court-overturns-conviction-killing-daniel-pearl-200402065653842.html) On 22 April, the Sindh government moved the Supreme Court, through an appeal by Sindh Prosecutor General Dr. Fiaz Shah, saying ‘last seen evidence’, ‘impersonation’ and ‘identification parade’ had been proved against the accused. (“Sindh govt challenges high court verdict in Daniel Pearl case,” Dawn, 23 April 2020, https://www.dawn.com/news/1551526)

On 2 May, Ruth and Judea Pearl, the parents of Daniel Pearl, challenged the SHC verdict by appealing to the Supreme Court. (“Pearl’s parents also challenge in SC high court verdict,” Dawn, 3 May 2020, https://www.dawn.com/news/1554138) On 6 May, Ruth and Judea appealed to the masses in Pakistan through a touching note published in Dawn wherein they argued that the SHC verdict while sending the wrong message to terrorists and violent extremists, jeopardized the safety of citizens; reminded Pakistan of global attention; and warned the State’s adjudication to practice caution while dispensing justice. (“Why we are seeking justice for our son, Daniel Pearl,” Dawn, 6 May 2020, https://www.dawn.com/news/1554930)

Presently the Supreme Court is seized with two independent appeals by Daniel Pearl’s parents and three appeals by the Sindh government against the acquittal of Omer Shaikh, Fahad Nasim, Syed Salman Saqib, and Sheikh Muhammad Adil. The court will resume hearing in October.

Image Source: The News

In Brief

COVID-19
Complete lockdown to be enforced on Saturdays and Sundays: NCC
The National Coordination Committee has allowed for the opening up of businesses for five days until 7 pm with the enforcement of SOPs and complete lockdown on Saturdays and Sundays. The committee which was chaired by PM Imran Khan also formulated a list of business and commercial activities that will be allowed to resume their activities and another negative list with of business that would remain suspended. Further, the PM the nation to strictly follow the SOPs that have been put in place. (“Complete lockdown on Saturdays, Sundays,” The News International, 2 June 2020)

Prime Minister decides to ease restrictions further and reopen tourism
The National Coordination Committee meeting was held yesterday. PM addressed the issues of informal workers losing jobs, and adverse economic condition that cannot be dealt with lockdown hence has decided to ease the restrictions under strict SOP guidelines. He has also planned to reopen the tourism industry, which can also help in the recovery of the economy and for the overseas Pakistani’s to return home. (Syed Irfan Raza, “Imran lifts restrictions on tourism industry,” Dawn, 2 June 2020)

WHO asks the government to ensure the essential services to other ailments are not disrupted
The WHO has released a report on a study that was conducted in Pakistan and other countries in May. It stated that there has been a severe cutdown in the supply of medicines and treatment for non-communicable diseases (NDC). As many people with ailments such as cancer, diabetes, and cardiovascular problems are more prone to contract the coronavirus. The casual reasons for cutdown are due to diversion of medical workers to COVID- 19 camps, disturbance in public transport, and cancelling of planned treatments. Hence the pandemic has risked the survival of people with NDC’s. (Ikram Junaidi, “Covidiots in courtroom irk chief justice,” Dawn, 2 June 2020)

ECONOMY
Inflation rate drops to 8.2 per cent
Data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics showed an 8.2 per cent drop in inflation in May as a result of the decline in prices of petroleum products and improvement in the supply of essential food items dragged the overall inflation down to a single digit. A drop in rates of few vegetables, pulses and fruits was also seen in May, however, food inflation is likely to double-digit and increase in May despite a drop in overall price levels. The twelve-month low inflation was noted in May since the calculation methodology was changed in 2019. (Mubarak Zeb Khan, “Inflation drops to 8.2pc in May,” Dawn, 2 June 2020)

INTERNAL
Some retired and serving pilots raise eyebrows about CAA’s role in light of communication between the pilot and air traffic controller
The inefficiency to communicate to the pilot by the Civil Aviation Authority in the time of emergency has raised questions among the pilots. They state that an alternative plan could have been suggested by the air traffic control before the crash. A senior air traffic controller has said to Dawn that the aircraft was kept with ‘approach controllers’ all the time as per the procedure. “The pilot did not call tower frequency at any time during the flight and was in contact with the ATC till he crashed,”
(Zulqernain Tahir, “Experts battle for their teams amid PIA crash probe,” Dawn, 2 June 2020)

Investigation team set to look into lynching incident
Additional Chief Secretary of Balochistan announced the formation of an eight-member Joint Investigation Team (JIT) under the Anti-Terrorism Act,1997. This team will inspect the incident that took place in Hazara Town and will submit a report to the court in 15 days. (“JIT formed to investigate Balochistan lynching incident,” Dawn, 2 June 2020)

Supreme Court summons dam fund’s foreign remittances record
The Supreme Court of Pakistan has reached out to the State Bank of Pakistan for details regarding money sent from abroad for the dam fund. A five-member bench, led by Chief Justice heard the case on first June. The chief justice has stated that the court would not allow any injustice in the dam affair and that the land issue for the dams should be resolved. State Bank officials stated that if the money for the dams was invested in the stock exchange, there would be a danger of loss in expectation of a big profit. They stated that where the dams money has been invested currently would give a reasonable profit as well as be secure. (“Dam Fund: Supreme Court summons foreign remittances record,” The News International, 2 June 2020)

LOCUST ATTACK
Rains likely to worsen locust swarms: FAO
The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has put out a warning stating that the number of locusts could grow twenty-fold in the upcoming monsoon season in South Asia unless adequate measures are taken to address the issue. Swarms of the desert locust, which originated in Africa, have moved into West Asia, attacking vegetation in parts of Iran and Pakistan and are now threatening crops in India. Joint teams of the Ministry of National Food Security and Research, Pakistan Army, provincial agricultural departments along with the National Disaster Management Authority have taken both conventional and unconventional measures to control the locust. (Amin Ahmed, “Rains to aggravate locust swarms: Food and Agriculture Organisation,” Dawn, 2 June 2020)

EXTERNAL
Qatar stops investments to three major airports of Pakistan
The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) has decided to stop investing in Pakistan airports because of the deviation by the authorities from the earlier model formulated in 2017 which gave transferred ownership of the three airports to Qatar. Authorities in Pakistan are concerned over this matter and now desire to outsource individual services like parking services, tuck shop services, restaurant services, so that they could retain operational control. However, the QIA has shown no interest in the government’s offer of outsourcing the commercial activities of the three airports. (Khalid Mustafa, “Qatar refuses to invest in Pakistan’s three major airports,” The News International, 2 June 2020)

ON INDIA
Foreign Office responds to the expelling of Pakistani officials by India
The two officials of Pakistan’s High Commission were expelled under allegation in attempting to collect documents relating to India’s national security. Foreign Office (FO) in Pakistan, has rejected as “false and unsubstantiated”. It later assembled the Indian officer and condemned that decision of India on expulsion. (Baqir Sajjad Syed, “Indian govt’s policies threatening peace in S. Asia: PM Imran,” Dawn, 2 June 2020)

In Focus and In Brief sections are prepared by Lakshmi V Menon, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, A Padmashree and P Harini Sha.